(pictured above: The Chiefs, who seem inevitable at this point.)
THE PANTHERS MADE HISTORY!
Lots of Victory Monday nonsense on Panthers Twitter this week after Carolina beat what's probably the worst team in the league by one point at home. Really, though, the Panthers should have lost. Consider:
Via ESPN's Bill Barnwell: "Saints outgained the Panthers by 150+ yards, ran for 150+ yards, and won the turnover battle. Over the last 20 years, teams had gone 275-0 with that formula. Now 275-1."
Also too from CBS Sports: "The Panthers are the first team in the Super Bowl era to win a game with
▪️ under 250 total yards gained
▪️ 0 takeaways
▪️ 425+ total yards allowed"
Sure, BY9 played his best game of his career. But Panther Fan is starting to turn on HC Handsome Dave Canales, who after repeatedly calling screens (and denying BY9 at least 400 yards passing) refused to name Young the Week 10 starter. As one Twitter wag called him, "he’s ozempic Matt Rhule."
PLAYOFF PICTURE
If the playoffs started today:
AFC
Division leaders: Chiefs (8-0), Bills (7-2), Steelers (6-2), Texans (6-3)
Wild cards: Ravens (6-3), Chargers (5-3), Broncos (5-4)
Bubble teams: Colts and Bengals (4-5), everyone else
NFC:
Division leaders: Lions (7-1), Commanders (7-2), Falcons (6-3), Cardinals (5-4)
Wild cards: Vikings (6-2), Eagles (6-2), Packers (6-3)
Bubble teams: Bears, Niners, Rams at 4-4, Bucs and Seahawks at 4-5, everyone else
IF YOU THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF BAD TEAMS OUT THERE ...
... you're right! There are currently nine teams with two (or fewer) wins, which is tied with the most in Week 9 since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
According to Tankathon, the Patriots currently hold the first pick in the 2025 draft, followed by the Jags, Aints, Panthers and Browns.
WEEK 10 SCHEDULE
#=divisional game
I love the fact that we get to see the Ravens (Thursday) and Lions (Sunday) in prime time. Both are high on my list of Fun Watches.
I hate the fact that the Cowboys (blech) are in the CBS GOTW slot (though it'll be fun to see the Eagles wreck them). And I apologize to all the citizens of Germany for the travesty you're about to witness on your own soil.
Note the Legion-MMD matchup in the Sunday early afternoon slot. I'd much rather watch that than Falcons-Saints, which I'm pretty sure we'll get in my market because the Football Gods hate me. Batten down the hatches, mateys, because we'll be yo-ho-ho-and-a-bottle-of-rum-ing the 1 p.m. Sunday game.
Thursday
Bengals at Ravens (Prime)# ****
Sunday morning
Giants vs Panthers in Munich, 930a (NFL, never mind that the airing of this game should be considered an act of terrorism)
Sunday early
Patriots at Bears (Fox)
Bills at Colts (CBS)#
Vikings at Jaguars (Fox)
Broncos at Chiefs (CBS)#
Falcons at Saints (Fox)#
Niners at Bucs (Fox) ***
Steelers at Commanders (CBS) ***
Sunday late
Titans at Chargers (Fox)
Jets at Cardinals (CBS)
Eagles at Cowboys (CBS GOTW)#
Sunday night
Lions at Texans (NBC) ****
Monday night
Dolphins at Rams (ESPN)
Byes: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
Coverage maps: Here on Wednesday afternoon
I am flying to Tampa Sunday afternoon, and will land not long after the 49ers win at the stadium right near the airport. The Bucs have major problems at LB and not-first CB, which means the middle of the field is generally wide open on every play. That feels like an unfortunate circumstance based on how Shanahan likes to call plays. A lot of unathletic and raw defenders are going to be very much in the wrong spot all day Sunday.
Finally, a Thursday night game with a high watchability score.
Which means both teams will have the worst game of their entire season.
Which means both teams will have the worst game of their entire season.
Ravens already lost to Browns with 4 dropped Interceptions and about 4 dropped completions on offense too.
Cannot play any worse than that
I get that the Saints are selling, but trading Lattimore actually put them in worse cap position for 2025 as all the bonus money comes due at once. Not sure how they are going to dig themselves out of a $65M hole, but it looks like all the can kicking is finally coming due.
Just looking at their contracts, I can't see any easy way to get them into compliance. All their big money players are void extended out to ludicrous timelines. They will still be paying Alvin Kamara, for instance, until he is 34 (which is like 94 in running back years). And they can't afford to cut Derek Carr as the dead money hit would crater their cap.
It is honestly looking like they won't be able to do a cold turkey cap realignment and will have to go on roster methadone. They are just going to be stuck extending some folks despite their lack of production and continue paying the legacy bad player tax.
I just watched a national analyst just say that Lamar Jackson's passing has become so dangerous now that teams are better off putting nickel on the field and hoping to "die slow" instead at the hands of Derrick Henry.
TLDR: they think he is high ceiling.
My take: How the f*ck would they know? They will have Trey Lance throwing him ducks.
TLDR: they think he is high ceiling.
Mingo's also on a cheap rookie deal that Carolina has already mostly covered. If he pans out, Dallas gets a second-round talent for a fourth-round pick. If not, eh, picks come and go, and the tiny dent Mingo will put in the salary cap is something you can easily buff out. It's a very analytics-y move.
Me, I'm happy the Panthers didn't get fleeced in a trade for once. Progress!
TLDR: they think he is high ceiling.
An entire article that doesn’t actually explain the real reason for the cost difference.
This is where I remind people that a team doesn’t get a player in a trade, they get a contract.
The value difference is not Diontae Johnson vs Jonathan Mingo straight up. It’s a 8 game contract vs. a 2 years and 8 games contract.
Paleocon wrote:TLDR: they think he is high ceiling.
An entire article that doesn’t actually explain the real reason for the cost difference.
This is where I remind people that a team doesn’t get a player in a trade, they get a contract.
The value difference is not Diontae Johnson vs Jonathan Mingo straight up. It’s a 8 game contract vs. a 2 years and 8 games contract.
Yeah. I guess that makes sense if the idea is you are stashing him for next season, but given that you are on the coaching carousel anyway, shouldn't you leave personnel decisions to the next coach? I don't think Mingo helps you recruit a better play caller and losing a 4th actually hurts the prospect.
The value difference is not Diontae Johnson vs Jonathan Mingo straight up. It’s a 8 game contract vs. a 2 years and 8 games contract.
Yep. ESPN's Bill Barnwell (and some others maybe?) get into the weeds on just this point.
In Johnson's case, folks seem too focused on why the Panthers got so little for him and are ignoring the larger point, which is why they traded for him in the first place. They can retcon it as a why not-kick-the-tires-on-him exercise, but the fact remains that the Panthers have been pretty consistently poor in their personnel evals for the past several years.
Yeah. I guess that makes sense if the idea is you are stashing him for next season, but given that you are on the coaching carousel anyway, shouldn't you leave personnel decisions to the next coach? I don't think Mingo helps you recruit a better play caller and losing a 4th actually hurts the prospect.
You can absolutely still argue the point that Dallas shouldn't have been the buyers on a Mingo deal. But the contract term is the reason the price for Jonathan Mingo is what it was compared to the half-season rental players.
As Legion already alluded to kinda wish Packers made one of those related WR trades. We love draft capital.
Backlog at the position for the team with no real clear bonafide studs. Reed + Kraft are trending that way but regression could also happen. Watson was extra infuriating in the Lions game but there's no way the team is quitting on him right now.
Preston Smith trade made sense mainly because it's go time for Lukas Van Ness. His stats don't exactly imply he's ready for more snaps but too bad buddy. Drafted in the first round so time for a baptism by fire.
Everyone send a prayer up for Luke Goedeke tonight, that man is about to line up against an absolutely feral Nick Bosa this week
Bengals-Ravens tonight! Should be fun (and maybe a reason to stay up late).
Bengals-Ravens tonight! Should be fun (and maybe a reason to stay up late).
Higgins is listed as doubtful which is too bad or it could really be full fireworks back and forth.
Great matchup vs it being Thursday. Which force is more powerful.
I’m going to go with the team with the two best running threats in the league over the team that can’t stop the run.
I’m going to go with the team with the two best running threats in the league over the team that can’t stop the run.
It's really tough to sweep a division opponent and the Bengals are a way better team than their record, but the four teams they have beaten have a collective record of 8-28 with all of them being at the bottom of their respective divisions. That said, two of the Ravens' three losses have been against two of those teams. This is one of those games that could go any number of weird ways.
With Tee Higgins likely out and Orlando Brown playing gimpy, I suspect the Ravens will play a lot of cover two against Chase, use disguised pressure, and make Burrow feed the ball to Iosivas and Gesicki. It's notable that Burrow goes from 4th in yards per attempt (8.6) when Higgins is on the field to 32nd when he is not (6.0). Burrow's sack rate also goes from 5.1% (9th best) to 8.6% (26th) when Higgins is out. That latter one will be particularly exploitable if Brown is as banged up as he appears to be.
My very optimistic prediction is Ravens in a 41-18 scorigami.
Came for Legion's tears, left disappointed.
Hmm, not sure the 2-3 yards are worth a challenge there John.
He's the worst with challenges.
Meanwhile Ravens inches from interception in end zone there. Could have got the lead still before half. At least they get the ball first
Really love that the Prime Vision alternate broadcast is doing the behind-the-offense all-22 cam this week.
Ok it's a game again. But dang, missed XP
These teams are battling to see whose pass defense is worse.
Refs ignored about 3 penalties on that failed 2-pointer.
That’s why I don’t like the 2 point attempt versus going to overtime. Too easy for the outcome to get taken out of your hands.
Refs ignored about 3 penalties on that failed 2-pointer.
That’s why I don’t like the 2 point attempt versus going to overtime. Too easy for the outcome to get taken out of your hands.
Bengals thought they were the Chiefs.
The Ravens pass defense is pure garbage.
Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder is hurt and may require surgery. You know what that means:
The Ravens pass defense is pure garbage.
I mean, I saw Jaemis throw them like three interceptions they decided to drop.
Paleocon wrote:The Ravens pass defense is pure garbage.
I mean, I saw Jaemis throw them like three interceptions they decided to drop.
The three QBs the Ravens have lost to (Patrick Mahomes, Jaimis Winston, and Gardner Minshew) all have INT rates greater than Drake Maye. Their INT rates rank them 30th+ among QBs this season.
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