Question for you folks with more familiarity with F1. I can see where Red Bull could potentially lose the Constructor Championship to McClaren but what about the Driver's Championship?
What kind of scenario would have to play out for Norris to have a legitimate chance? Does he even have one or is this one of those, well if Max DNFs in at least half the final races it could be possible situations(ie not likely).
I don't think there's much of a chance of Norris getting the Drivers Championship.
While it's now looking possible that Max may not win another race this year Norris would also need a perfect run without any interruptions from a Mercedes, Ferrari or Oscar.
A lot of the media is bleating about McLaren not doing team orders, but I suspect they don't see it as being a likely enough proposition that it's worth undermining their relationship with Piastri
Yup, that about sums it up I think.
It’s debatable whether McLaren would ultimately be better served by trying their best to make Norris happy, but as frustrating as it is to have to see Verstappen not be legitimately challenged despite how the season has developed I think they are probably overall making the best call for the team long term. Piastri might not quite be on Norris’ level overall right now, but he’s damn talented and worth keeping happy too — and their ideal scenario would be to have two reasonably happy drivers ready to work together shutting out the rest of the field next year while feeling that they are being treated fairly in their competition with each other.
Also, worth noting that Piastri is managed by Mark Webber, who has a legitimate claim to the top 5 list of drivers most hard done by team orders. (No offense meant to Vettel, but I think most folks would agree that it’s probably better to try to emulate the driver management strategy of 2010s Mercedes rather than that of Red Bull.)
Sadly I do think this may be Lando's best chance because I feel like Piastri is going to be the stronger driver very soon. Dude's ice cold.
If you don't know what zeroKFE is talking about, Google "multi 21 seb".
Now, while I agree that it's a pretty long shot for Norris to get the WDC, I don't think it's as far fetched as you might think. It certainly does not require Max to DNF half the time.
Norris is 62 points behind with 8 races to go and you can get as much as 26 points in a race. There are also three Sprint races left, which add up to 8 points each.
Four races ago (before Hungary), Max was ahead by 84 points, so Lando will need to close the gap at a faster rate. He's been gaining 5.5 points per weekend but he needs 7.75 (let's say 8) per weekend. Sprint races may help but it's not enough. Winning a race with the fastest lap gives you exactly 8 points over second place but Lando isn't going to win every race. However, it doesn't look like Max is getting second in every race either.
The most realistic scenario where Lando could win this is averaging second place finishes with a win or two and some fastest laps (which he got in the last two races) while Max averages 4th-5th. That's more than what Lando has been achieving, but it's not that much more. And it only takes Max having one incident, one failure, or one safety car at the wrong time to make Lando's recent performance enough to win it. Max has been excellent at damage control but it's easier to avoid incidents starting at the front row than starting in the 3rd row. And maybe if Piastri is mathematically out at one point, there will be team orders instead of Papaya rules.
Of course a million things may happen. Red Bull may improve their car and at least stay close enough to make the comeback impossible. But Mercedes and Ferrari may also keep improving and take even more points from Max. Or from Lando... Who knows.
So possible but for sure an uphill climb. Thanks guys!
Papaya rules?
Learning new sports is weird!
Papaya rules?
Learning new sports is weird!
Haha, don't worry, the Papaya rules thing was weird even for longtime fans.
Yeah, just the recently revealed internal name for McLaren’s rules of engagement when their drivers are racing each other. Kind of silly, but in a way that seems to have caught the ear of fans and media.
McLaren calling their awesome orange 'papaya' is a goofy choice and thus gives us goofy things like 'papaya rules'
But yeah. It's straightforward rules of engagement, 'you're racing but don't crash.'
Now, while I agree that it's a pretty long shot for Norris to get the WDC, I don't think it's as far fetched as you might think. It certainly does not require Max to DNF half the time.
It's definitely not far fetched and you broke down the odds really well. My perspective on why McLaren isn't following the narrative is more...political.
Last race once of the F1TV commentators said something along the lines of "What if McLaren doesn't put their weight behind Lando and he misses the WDC by 8 or 9 points?" which is a valid point, but I look at it from the other side.
"What if they *do* put their weight behind him and he misses by 8 or 9 points?" I like Lando and would like to see him win the Championship, but the way it's balanced he just needs to get over excited once, break the pitlane speed limit like he nearly did in Monza and throw it away. And they've undermined their relationship with Piastri who is also a real Championship prospect joining a team on the upswing.
If anyone listens to Shift_F1, if you wonder why there's an email that's almost word for word my post above that's because it's me, not me parroting someone else. 
I sent it in before the previous episode so I thought it wasn't going to get read out.
If anyone listens to Shift_F1, if you wonder why there's an email that's almost word for word my post above that's because it's me, not me parroting someone else.
I sent it in before the previous episode so I thought it wasn't going to get read out.
Yeah, I just assumed it was you. 
Dammit McLaren, could have made the announcement 2 days ago before I made my perspective so clear, lol.
The team order thing is amusing to me because meanwhile teammates in IndyCar are like:
This interview with Stella is quite good. I think his line of “embrace complexity” is a great way to phrase it. He seems to be wanting to avoid simple hard and fast rules.
Dammit McLaren, could have made the announcement 2 days ago before I made my perspective so clear, lol.
And..... Lando then starts 17th today. Shucks.
Edit: actually it was 15. And he's already 5th!
Don't call it a comeback!
First time in over 40 years that an Argentinian driver scores points in F1. Unbelievable.
Wow.
Wild race. Piastri's pass was beyond good, and his defence was even more impressive.
Two drivers on their second race in the points. Funny stat is that Bearman is the first driver in history to score points for 2 teams in his first 2 races.
I was a bit concerned about Bearman in a weaker car with his bad position in the F2 championship, but he's carried himself brilliantly.
Colapinto is driving like it's a job interview. Two seats still available for next year it wouldn't surprise me to see him in one of them. Most likely Audi/Sauber.
Sadly I do think this may be Lando's best chance because I feel like Piastri is going to be the stronger driver very soon. Dude's ice cold.
Wild race. Piastri's pass was beyond good, and his defence was even more impressive.
It's like he read your post from a few days ago.
As you say, the pass was excellent, but for me for it was the defense that read as next level. We've all seen a million times before how that DRS straight, turn 1, turn 2, DRS straight combo can kind of feel like the pass is inevitable when the car behind closes to a certain range, and it felt like every one of Leclerc's half dozen or more attempts were within those bounds -- but Piastri played every single one of them perfectly to deny the pass. Just spectacular, and as you said, ice cold from start to finish.
Colapinto is driving like it's a job interview. Two seats still available for next year it wouldn't surprise me to see him in one of them. Most likely Audi/Sauber.
Yeah, that's a tough one though right?
So, maybe in his favor is that secretly, there's maybe kind of three seats up for grabs. Perez seems to have survived the midseason axe (maybe almost exclusively due to marketing value and the fact that that Mexican Grand Prix is so late in the season), but I suspect he'll still be vulnerable to the reported performance clause in his contract at the end of the year.
However, even counting it as three seats potentially available, two of those are in the Red Bull domain -- and Marko has been out there openly saying that Lawson will be driving somewhere in 2025. So if they drop Perez, it's a question of whether they decide to feed Lawson or Tsunoda into the woodchipper of the big team (I don't think it will be Ricciardo -- even if HIS marketing value keeps him driving, I don't think his season so far is enough to put him beside Max, no matter how much Horner seems to want it to happen). And if Ricciardo is fully out of the picture, it feels more likely they'll bring up one of their own junior drivers rather than take on Colapinto.
So yeah, that basically does just leave the Sauber/Audi seat -- which, you know, maybe not impossible? But the question is what do they want to do with this last transition year? Do you want stable, known quantities to help you direct and develop your 2026 car, or do you want to try to season in a promising rookie so they can hopefully be off and running in 2026?
To me, the better move seems to be the former. Stick with Bottas (or Zhou , if you really need the money he brings in) for 2025 and maybe 2026, and then once you've got your car program figured out, then hunt down some young talent to build for the future.
But, who the hell knows what's going on with that whole situation. Seems a bit chaotic so far, so really I won't be terribly surprised at anything. (Although the recent rumors about them trying to tempt Vettel out of retirement for the marketing value therein do see a bit far fetched -- or, very ill advised if not.)
Yeah, the logical decision for Sauber would be to go for another experienced journeyman and give Bottas a 2 year contract. It's worked for Haas, I feel like 2 drivers not running into walls has left them the resources to develop nicely this year.
And I don't see Red Bull taking a Mercedes/Williams rookie, Lawson is my call for taking Ricciardo's seat next year. Red Bull really needs to stabilise their talent pipeline as well.
Which leaves Colapinto out in the cold, which is a bummer.
Interestingly Russell is out of contract end of 2025...... but they won't run an Antonelli/Colapinto team.
Bit of an aside, Audi is a mess but I think hiring Binotto is going to settle them down. He wasn't the best team principle at track side, but the depth of his experience will help their direction and organisational decision making.
And Ricciardo is officially out. Lawson is in
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/a...
Least surprising news of the last few years because basically everyone at Singapore except the powers that be at RB and VCARB were talking about it. Apparently Ricciardo spent hours going around the paddock on Sunday saying goodbye. The Race and F1TV dropped videos within 5 minutes of the announcement, so they were even uploaded already.
He really wasn't featuring and needed to retire, but RB's handling of the situation was awful.
He really wasn't featuring and needed to retire, but RB's handling of the situation was awful.
Yeah, 100%.
I guess the latest in the rumor mill is that clauses in Lawson's contract were on the verge of activating that would let him freely look elsewhere for a drive (which I guess means at that single Sauber/Audi seat that already has too many legit candidates for it?) if Red Bull didn't exercise their rights and sign him for a full seat immediately.
However, my gut suspicion (even if that is the case) is that this is mostly about Perez's seat for 2025. Dollars to donuts they will still have the performance clauses activated by the end of the season to be able to dump him if they want to, but they had shit for options up until now.
It's pretty clear that at least some segment of the decision making machine doesn't think Tsunoda has the temperament for the big team (I'm torn about whether I agree, but no one is going to ask me), and Ricciardo was... doing okay, but not impressing. And at the same time, you don't want to drop Lawson directly into the big team at the start of 2025, no matter how impressive he was subbing in last year.
But, if you give Lawson half a dozen or so races at the end of this season and he's impressive again? Well, that's a much happier position to be in if you're not sure if Perez should remain your guy, right?
Yeah, I think you're right. If Lawson manages to be solid, even if unspectacular, in the VCARB Perez is out.
And Lawson has been in the RB machine for a long time, he probably has the temperament for the Red Bull number 2 seat and knows exactly what he's getting in to.
This opens up VCARB for one of their junior drivers. The general chatter seems to be around Hadjar.
This stabilises their talent pipeline which has been a mess since they burned through Albon and Gasly and had to go outside for Perez.
I know Marko wasn't happy with an older driver in VCARB too.
Max Verstappen is smiling as he holds up the new Leeds United shirt at Silverstone.
It is July and the Formula 1 drivers’ championship leader is flanked by Leeds players Dan James, Ethan Ampadu, Glen Kamara and Georginio Rutter, who are holding up Red Bull racing shirts.
The photo represents the start of a new and, both parties hope, mutually successful link between United and energy drink giants Red Bull who had just signed a sponsorship plus equity deal with the club at the time. In principle, the idea is for Red Bull — and by extension its vast sporting empire in football, extreme sports, F1 and more — and Leeds to share ideas as well as the sponsorship presence.
But the photo has become a source of amusement for fans because, since that day, the seemingly unstoppable Verstappen has not won another race.
US GP ticket sales ‘took off’ after Max Verstappen stopped winning in F1
Ticket sales for this month’s US Formula One Grand Prix in Austin, Texas, “took off” after Max Verstappen stopped winning, according to the race promoter, Bobby Epstein. Verstappen started the season in dominant fashion, winning four of the first five races and seemingly destined to wrap up his fourth drivers’ title well before the end of the campaign.
The Dutchman, who won 19 of 22 races last year, has failed to win any of the last eight, however, with McLaren’s Lando Norris his closest challenger and now 52 points behind with six rounds remaining.
“Our ticket sales really took off when Max stopped winning and it got more competitive,” said Epstein. The promoter had feared a “weakest year in four since the pandemic” but said sales were trending upwards for the sprint race weekend that takes place on 18-20 October.
I forget, did we talk here about the rumored behind the scenes reason why Red Bull lost a chunk of their competitive advantage around the Miami grand prix?
If we didn't, it was because likely that they got caught cheating and were allowed to quietly stop doing it behind closed doors. Reportedly, they had a clever mechanical/hydraulic system that allowed asymmetric braking pressure, which is against the rules. The theory is they either thought it was concealed enough to not be noticed or that the unique nature of how they achieved it managed to skirt the exact wording of the rules.
So, just before Miami the FIA issued a technical directive clarifying that "any system or mechanism which can produce systematically or intentionally, asymmetric braking torques for a given axle" (emphasis is mine) is against the rules. And then, lo and behold, from that race onward Max suddenly starts hating the balance of the car, struggling to get the setup right, and generally not just winning every race by a country mile.
WELL, round two just dropped this morning.
So, over the long gap since the last race, rumors have been brewing about another such clarifying technical directive coming soon, this time about devices that allow adjusting ride height under parc ferme conditions from within the cockpit. Now, the speculation was that this was meant to address something McLaren were doing -- after all, they recently got knocked down regarding clever flappy wing bits (often referred to as "mini DRS") that passed the rigidity tests currently used to enforce the rules, but under dynamic load in use allowed extra drag reduction through materials bending more than they are allowed to -- but even after making adjustments there, they were still extremely strong at Singapore.
But, just this morning Red Bull admitted to having a device that allows for easier adjustment to ride height that is technically accessible from within the cockpit space, but claims that it's still not possible to use without some amount of disassembly and insists it DEFINITELY hasn't been used to make adjustments between qualifying and races. So, the FIA will be monitoring the device in question from here forward (they will not be required to take it out of the design of the car), and potentially next year's rules will be updated to cover this kind of device.
So, kind of like the situation where Mercedes got to use their DAS system for a season before the rules changed to exclude it, Red Bull gets to keep using the device for it's stated purpose -- streamlining the process of adjusting the car when those adjustments are allowed -- but IF they were using it to cheat in parc ferme conditions, they are much more likely to be caught doing it now.
But, of course, expect it to be a bit topic of discussion throughout the weekend -- and, especially so if for some reason Red Bull looks even worse than they have since Miami.
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