The week after Week 1 is one of the best weeks of the football season. After months of Hot Takes Based On Nothing but Vibes, we now have Hot Takes Based on Evidence of Games Played.
I mean (and I made most of these up):
* Niners and Cowboys are going to the Superb Owl
* Chiefs / Bills / Bengals are cooked because they lost
* Jets are cooked despite the W
* The Rams are back!
* Belichick should be fired
* Tua (or Tyreek) should be MVP
I say:
Let's pump the brakes a bit. The only think we know is that the Cardinals are tanking. The rest of it is just the hottest of hot takes.
WEEK 1 CHAOS
I don't know why you read my nonsense when Draw Play Dave sums it up so well:
I can vouch for the fact that the Panthers are semi-chaotic but utterly unwatchable except for Brian Burns' sacks. Tiny Bryce Young is going to get killed back there (or fall asleep) waiting for his receivers to get open. It makes for dull Sunday afternoons. You'll have to weigh in below on whether DPD portrayed your team accurately.
Speaking of chaos, it's reflected in the new No. 1 team in this week's power rankings. The Chiefs are out of everyone's top spot. Heading into Week 2:
NFL.com andCBS Sports: Niners
Bleacher Report and ESPN: Also Niners
PFT and SI: Ditto, Niners
The Athletic: Cowboys
OK, so maybe not that chaotic.
SCORIGAMI!
Week 1 produced the first Scorigami of 2023 (and the 1,076th in league history): Ravens 25, Texans 9
Meanwhile, Bucs 20, Vikings 17 was the 283rd time we've seen that final score. That's far and away the most common result.
WEEK 2 SCHEDULE
A few interesting games plus a Monday night doubleheader:
Thursday night
Vikings at Eagles (Prime)
Sunday early
Packers at Falcons
Raiders at Bills
Ravens at Bengals
Seahawks at Lions
Colts at Texans
Chiefs at Jaguars
Bears at Bucs
Chargers at Titans
Sunday late
Giants at Cardinals
Niners at Rams
Jets at Cowboys*
Commanders at Broncos
Sunday night
Dolphins at Patriots (NBC)
Monday night
Saints at Panthers, 715p (ESPN)
Browns at Steelers, 815p (ABC and ESPN+)
No ManningCast; off till Week 4
Coverage maps will be in their usual spot Wednesday.
* Intended to be the national GOTW (bc Nantz/Romo are assigned). But instead of watching Rodgers doing his thing, we'll get to see Zach Wilson getting punched in the face by Micah Parsons et al. Fun!
Week 1 Thoughts!
- The "dump Zeke and go all-in on Pollard" move looks good so far. (When your planned replacement had 5.2+ yards per carry the previous two years, that's a good sign.)
- The "dump Cook and go all-in on Mattison" move looks bad so far. (When your planned replacement had 3.8 yards per carry the previous two years, that's a bad sign.)
- Last year, I kept harping on the Giants, Vikings, and Seahawks, calling the 3 teams "paper tigers" that were riding high on turnover luck. Each team cooled over the back half of the year, but had built enough wins to all make the playoffs (and then went a combined 1-3, and that's only because two of them played each other so one had to win). This week, all 3 teams lost at home - two in games where they were strongly favored, and the one team that was a slight underdog lost 40-0 and was relegated to the USFL. The 3 teams combined for 0 takeaways this week. Moral of the story: when a team does unexpectedly well, look closely at the turnover numbers, because it might reveal that a lot of it is ball bounce luck.
- While digging up that previous link, I noticed two posts later that Enix was comparing the 49ers mascot "Sourdough Sam" to Sam Darnold back in December, 3 months before Darnold would go on to become a 49er. There are shockingly almost no Google results for "Sourdough Sam Darnold", except this post on an MMA forum where someone draws the comparison using the same Sourdough Sam photo Enix did.
- Everyone expected the 49ers D-line of Bosa, Armstead, and Javon Hargrave to be killer, but the question was if last year's 2nd round pick Drake Jackson was up to the task of being the other edge rusher. He responded with 3 sacks of Kenny Twogloves this week. Jackson slid in the draft because USC inexplicably turned him into a stack linebacker for their 3-3-5 scheme late in his college career. It took a year for him to adjust back into a full-time edge rusher spot, but so far Jackson looks like the bookend for Bosa that the team envision on draft weekend 2022.
- Pittsburgh ran shallow cross against the 49ers 8 times. What offensive coordinator watches 49ers film and says, "that Fred Warner guy, that's who we need to target"? They basically ran that play repeatedly against the worst possible NFL defense they could run it against. Those 8 plays resulted in only one completion for 10 yards, plus an INT and two sacks.
- Jordan Love played in one game the way Bears fans are still waiting for Justin Fields to play.
- Brock Purdy looked like the 2022 stretch run player again. He quickly dispelled concerns about his health.
- Calvin Ridley looked like the 2020 breakout season player again. I HATE to give Trent Baalke credit - I hate it so much - but the move to trade for Ridley while he was still under suspension may prove to be the shrewdest personnel move of the past few years.
- I think Joe Burrow rushed his recovery in order to get his contract extension sealed. He does not look ready to be out on the field.
- The bottom might finally be falling out for Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. 198 yards and 3 INTs in a game that wasn’t as close as the 16-15 final score suggests. Have to wonder how much leash Tannehill will have before it’s Willis or Levis time.
- First look at the new-look Todd Monken Ravens offense was a big “meh”. In what's supposed to be a more pass-centric offense, Lamar posted another sub-200 yard game. The run game losing Dobbins sucked, but he wasn’t exactly doing much before that happened. The good news though is Zay Flowers showed some juice right away. And maybe an opponent less hapless than Houston will compel some more fireworks.
- Derek Carr threw for 305 yards in his first Saints action. He only reached 300 yards twice last year under McDaniels.
- The New York Giants should be blowing up Buccaneers GM Jason Licht's phone with offers for Mike Evans. The Bucs opted against offering Evans an extension, and while they're not expected to trade him, the Giants should be hard at work trying to change their mind.
You'll have to weigh in below on whether DPD portrayed your team accurately.
Jags: High chaos fun
Niners: Low chaos fun
Yeah, pretty much. Man it's been a long time since watching Jags football could be called "fun". It wasn't that long ago that we were watching Doug Marrone coach Blake Bortles to throw the ball to Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, and Donte Moncrief (while DJ Chark sat in a cold tub, recovering from whatever the latest injury was).
You'll have to weigh in below on whether DPD portrayed your team accurately
Not going to claim the Packers were must watch exciting TV but harsh assessment having them just a tad behind the cluster of meh.
They put up 38 points 2nd only to the Cowboys this week at 40. I blame the Bears for making it seem so routinely average.
I think Joe Burrow rushed his recovery in order to get his contract extension sealed. He does not look ready to be out on the field.
I watched that full game. Working his calf out between drives was very suspect.
Otherwise I'm giving the Bengals entire offense a mulligan for the weather and playing Myles Garrett. It wasn't good but it also wasn't whatever Josh Allen did last night.
I'll use my untrained in person eyes this week to get a better look as were road tripping to Bengals Ravens.
I’m disappointed Robert Saleh hasn’t said, “we will rally around Zach Wilson, and we will play good football”. If I were a head coach in that position, there’s no way I could resist.
Be nice if they switch game if the week to Rams Niners. It's definitely the best late game now
The New York Giants should be blowing up Buccaneers GM Jason Licht's phone with offers for Mike Evans. The Bucs opted against offering Evans an extension, and while they're not expected to trade him, the Giants should be hard at work trying to change their mind.
I believe the correct phrasing at this point is "you shut your dirty whore mouth and you shut it now."
The Bucs have $77 million in dead cap this year, and basically none next year. Evans could certainly price himself out of Tampa, but I don't think him staying on a longer new contract is even unlikely. He'll hopefully get the Brooks/Ronde forever treatment.
Chargers at Titans is one of the most watchable teams against one of the least watchable teams. What does that mean for the watchability of the game?
The Bucs have $77 million in dead cap this year, and basically none next year. Evans could certainly price himself out of Tampa, but I don't think him staying on a longer new contract is even unlikely. He'll hopefully get the Brooks/Ronde forever treatment.
I just don’t see the reasoning to pass on extending Evans if they’re going to turn around and try to do it later. The extension wouldn’t begin until 2024 anyhow, but Evans would be locked in. And it’s not like WR contracts are gonna get cheaper a year from now.
The fact that Evans’ camp set a deadline for an extension sends a pretty clear signal that they’re not happy with the status quo. And the fact that Tampa let that deadline pass on by doesn’t make things look better.
Quote Evans’ agent: "We have been working on extending Mike's career with the Bucs for over a year, and we want the fans to know this is not a tactic and the ball is in the owner's court."
Maybe everyone has a change of heart 6 months from now, but it’s not a good starting point. And Evans’ name is going to be near the top of every “who might move at the trade deadline” article this year.
Week 1 Thoughts!
- While digging up that previous link, I noticed two posts later that Enix was comparing the 49ers mascot "Sourdough Sam" to Sam Darnold back in December, 3 months before Darnold would go on to become a 49er. There are shockingly almost no Google results for "Sourdough Sam Darnold", except this post on an MMA forum where someone draws the comparison using the same Sourdough Sam photo Enix did.
Speaking of prophecy, here's something else I saved from last season:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:The Bucs have $77 million in dead cap this year, and basically none next year. Evans could certainly price himself out of Tampa, but I don't think him staying on a longer new contract is even unlikely. He'll hopefully get the Brooks/Ronde forever treatment.
I just don’t see the reasoning to pass on extending Evans if they’re going to turn around and try to do it later. The extension wouldn’t begin until 2024 anyhow, but Evans would be locked in. And it’s not like WR contracts are gonna get cheaper a year from now.
The fact that Evans’ camp set a deadline for an extension sends a pretty clear signal that they’re not happy with the status quo. And the fact that Tampa let that deadline pass on by doesn’t make things look better.
Quote Evans’ agent: "We have been working on extending Mike's career with the Bucs for over a year, and we want the fans to know this is not a tactic and the ball is in the owner's court."
Maybe everyone has a change of heart 6 months from now, but it’s not a good starting point. And Evans’ name is going to be near the top of every “who might move at the trade deadline” article this year.
Nope. I'm going to believe in a reality where this is resolved in the offseason, and the without question greatest offensive player in franchise history (Brady was just a loaner, we all know that) sticks around. La la la la la I can't hear you.
Nope. I'm going to believe in a reality where this is resolved in the offseason, and the without question greatest offensive player in franchise history (Brady was just a loaner, we all know that) sticks around. La la la la la I can't hear you.
Bleacher Report today did a list of 15 players most likely to be traded before the deadline. Mike Evans not only makes the list, but the first landing spot they mentioned was the NY Giants.
There's always the franchise/transition tag option, so there's still a path where Evans doesn't get the extension but also isn't traded or allowed to walk away in free agency. Maybe they don't want to commit to him for 4 years, but are willing to slap a tag on him once or twice, and hang onto him another 1-2 years.
Maybe the team wanted to sign him but the Glazers spent too much on Manchester this year and weren't willing to write that check until next offseason. I do think it's interesting that Evans' agent specifically said the ball is in the "owner's court", not the "team's court" or the "GM's court".
Still, he's a 30-year-old WR on a team starting its rebuild. If someone's going to be this year's CMC, Evans would seem to be high on the list. He'd have value both for teams that want to sign and extend him, as well as teams that just want him as a playoff rental.
After watching what happened to KS without Kelse, I would be shocked if they didn't at least make a call or two about Evans.
If I wanted to entertain a world where Mike Evans is moved (and I clearly don't), KC or the kind of contender who'd make a run is an obviously crappy choice just from the perspective of the draft picks in question; if the Bucs are at worst looking at a 3rd round compensatory if he leaves, any trade bait has to be I'd hope a fair bit higher than that just to account for the PR hit, as Evans has been the Bucs' Man of the Year nominee multiple times, and he's really beloved in the fanbase and community. So, you know, obviously worth a Russell Wilson-esque haul.
Heck, Denver should put Evans at QB. Couldn't be worse.
I feel like Evans is still too good to be in the rental player category, which is why I pegged the Giants as the most sensible destination. The Giants made the big investment in Danny Dimes, they need to give him a legitimate target immediately, and they need that guy for more than just one year. The Giants could negotiate an extension with Evans (with permission from Tampa) and make the trade contingent on coming to terms on that extension.
Since Evans has no years on his deal left after this season, the trade compensation would be a bit different than it was with CMC having 3 full years left. But looking at the other recent trade deadline moves for WR:
Kadarius Toney - 3rd and 5th (2 yrs left on deal)
Chase Claypool - 2nd (1 yr left on deal)
Calvin Ridley - maximum of 2nd and 5th, contingent on signing an extension in JAX (1 yr left on deal)
Emmanuel Sanders (and a 5th) - 3rd, 4th (0 yrs left on deal)
The Sanders move is the most comparable given the lack of any contract term, and gives us a hard floor for compensation. So I think we're looking at a 2nd at bare minimum, and more realistically a 2nd plus a later pick or two. I'm gonna put the price at a 2nd and a 4th. Slightly better than the younger Ridley, but in the same ballpark. Maybe if you win the leverage battle and get a highly motivated buyer, scoot that up to a 2nd and 3rd. (The Giants front office could be in desperation mode if their Danny Dimes investment doesn't turn around in a hurry.)
And if the deal is made with a team like the Giants, those picks are likely to be mid-round picks, rather than end-of-the-round picks like a trade with a contender (or a compensatory pick) would be. Or, if the Giants play like they did Sunday night, maybe they're early round picks.
NFLPA renews call for natural grass to help prevent injuries after Rodgers gets hurt
Makes sense to me. Pretty much sums up how cheap owners are that they dont put their own team in the best position to not get hurt.
The Giants play at Met Life so Mike Evans should auto-veto getting traded there IMO.
Jed York last year on the topic of turf vs. natural grass:
“It makes no sense,” York said. “I think we’ve done a great job of having multiple events at Levi’s Stadium and we will change over the grass. I’d rather have that expense than have a player or anybody else get injured on the field. That’s just not worth it when it’s clearly preventable when you look at turf versus natural surface.
(...)
“It might be a million dollars a year. For a $200 million roster, you’re talking about a half a percent of what your roster costs. Isn’t it worth it to take one of those catastrophic injuries off the table because you have a better surface? I think it is.”
Stuff like this is why York has completely rebuilt his public perception since the Harbaugh/Baalke fallout.
Jed York last year on the topic of turf vs. natural grass:
“It makes no sense,” York said. “I think we’ve done a great job of having multiple events at Levi’s Stadium and we will change over the grass. I’d rather have that expense than have a player or anybody else get injured on the field. That’s just not worth it when it’s clearly preventable when you look at turf versus natural surface.
(...)
“It might be a million dollars a year. For a $200 million roster, you’re talking about a half a percent of what your roster costs. Isn’t it worth it to take one of those catastrophic injuries off the table because you have a better surface? I think it is.”
Stuff like this is why York has completely rebuilt his public perception since the Harbaugh/Baalke fallout.
$ 200 mil a year!? That's just the hush money the Browns pay Watson's masseuses.
Kind of surprised we haven’t heard of any movement at QB from the Jets yet. One way or another, they need a 3rd QB, even if it’s not necessarily your “Plan B” guy for the whole season. But they haven’t even poached a practice squad guy to bring into practice this week, or bought in any veterans for workouts that we’re aware of.
That makes me wonder if they’re cooking up a bigger move in a trade.
It would be really interesting if the Vikings were to lose tonight and fall to 0-2. If there’s any possibility that Kirk Cousins could be had in a deal, the Vikings starting 0-2 and presumably falling 2 games behind both the Packers and Lions (assuming wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, respectively) would certainly help the chances.
We probably also shouldn’t rule out a trade for Minnesota’s other quarterback, Nick Mullens, who Saleh would obviously be familiar with from their shared time in SF. That would be more of a “get me a QB2 who can play when Zach still sucks” move, granted, but it’s an option I haven’t seen suggested elsewhere.
Not the best decision on that pick
Now this is Thursday Night Football. 3 turnovers in a 3-0 first quarter.
Do we know why the Lions traded Hockenson and in the division even?
Never understood that trade.
Now this is Thursday Night Football. 3 turnovers in a 3-0 first quarter.
TNF is the best Thursday night comedy since NBC's Must See TV.
*Legion* wrote:Now this is Thursday Night Football. 3 turnovers in a 3-0 first quarter.
And now we get the stupidest rule in football. We’ve gone full TNF.
And a fumble to start the 3rd wow
Reportedly the Jets were interested in Brett Rypien but the Rams put him on the active roster.
My main takeaway from this link:
(…) with rookie Stetson Bennett on the non-football injury list for some time (…)
… old man broke his hip, didn’t he?
AJ Brown pulling some diva stuff on the sideline?
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