NFL 2023: The Week 1 thread

*Legion* wrote:

I was going to say San Francisco, but then Trey Lance glared at me.

I think you meant to say Alex Smith since that seems to fit the description perfectly?

*Legion* wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:

The problem with this logic is that terrible organizations pick #1 on most years.

To a degree yes, but not all teams picking #1 are created equal. Carolina picked #1 this year, and while they weren't a good football team in 2022, that franchise isn't a career hell-hole. If I were a QB draftee to be, I'd pick starting my career in Carolina over Arizona 10 times out of 10.

Goff went #1 to the Rams, another franchise I'd pick way before the Arizonas and Clevelands.

Yeah, even traditionally crappy franchises like Tampa or the Jets aren't terrible organizations in the way Arizona, Cleveland, or Washington have been. They're not teams that have exactly won consistently, but that's more because of bad decisions than meddling, incompetence, or being incredibly cheap.

So how many quarters will it take for this to Thursday up tonight? Two?

Rat Boy wrote:

So how many quarters will it take for this to Thursday up tonight? Two?

I will put the line at the 2nd quarter, 7:30 mark.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:

The problem with this logic is that terrible organizations pick #1 on most years.

To a degree yes, but not all teams picking #1 are created equal. Carolina picked #1 this year, and while they weren't a good football team in 2022, that franchise isn't a career hell-hole. If I were a QB draftee to be, I'd pick starting my career in Carolina over Arizona 10 times out of 10.

Goff went #1 to the Rams, another franchise I'd pick way before the Arizonas and Clevelands.

Yeah, even traditionally crappy franchises like Tampa or the Jets aren't terrible organizations in the way Arizona, Cleveland, or Washington have been. They're not teams that have exactly won consistently, but that's more because of bad decisions than meddling, incompetence, or being incredibly cheap.

Is there some kind of financial wizardry the Cards can pull off to reduce the meteor sized impact of the Murray contract ahead of drafting another QB? It isn't like anyone is going to trade for him and assume that deal. Could them burn the $14m in unused cap space they have this year in order to summon Luchremeud the archdemon to drag Kyler's contract to hell?

I don't see them getting out of at minimum a three year rebuild.

I am surprised at the lack of Vegas bashing here.
And I definitely would not go to Dallas or Chicago.

In fact I think the list of places I would go is smaller and more interesting.

What orgs are in less flux than KC, Philly and SF?
Everyone lower than that has major dysfunction.

I don't think I'd trust the Bengals. Sure they seem to have it together now but they've been bad for a LONG time to be overwritten by 2 years of success.

Seattle? Yah, not them either. Better than the Pats but same set in their ways hanging over everything.

Minnesota is a maybe. Pittsburgh is a maybe. Denver is a maybe leaning towards yes.

fangblackbone wrote:

I am surprised at the lack of Vegas bashing here.
And I definitely would not go to Dallas or Chicago.

In fact I think the list of places I would go is smaller and more interesting.

What orgs are in less flux than KC, Philly and SF?
Everyone lower than that has major dysfunction.

I don't think I'd trust the Bengals. Sure they seem to have it together now but they've been bad for a LONG time to be overwritten by 2 years of success.

Seattle? Yah, not them either. Better than the Pats but same set in their ways hanging over everything.

Minnesota is a maybe. Pittsburgh is a maybe. Denver is a maybe leaning towards yes.

Philly is at the peak of their super or suck sine wave, but their head office isn't the model of function. KC is on a roll right now as well, but if you are looking for a lack of drama and dysfunction, there are five teams that define the list and then there are the rest.

Pats
Giants
Packers
Steelers
Ravens

Paleocon wrote:

Is there some kind of financial wizardry the Cards can pull off to reduce the meteor sized impact of the Murray contract ahead of drafting another QB?

If they designated Murray as a June 1st cut next offseason, they would split the dead money cost across 2024 and 2025, about $42m in each year. It's a big number to swallow, but the flip side is that they would have a quarterback on a rookie deal. They'd then be clear of Murray's deal as the new QB entered year 3 of his contract.

Could them burn the $14m in unused cap space they have this year in order to summon Luchremeud the archdemon to drag Kyler's contract to hell?

No, but by not using that space this year, they can roll it into 2024 and use it to offset some of that $42m they'd have to eat. Which, incidentally, is exactly how much dead money they have on this year's cap from 15 contracts they've recently purged (the biggest being Hopkins).

I don't see them getting out of at minimum a three year rebuild.

Definitely not. They're really in year 1 of that right now, with all that dead money they're clearing this season. If they June 1st Murray next offseason, they'd basically have that same amount of dead money for 2024 and 2025 as well. It'd be 3 years of getting cap healthy, with an eye towards 2026.

*Legion* wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:

The problem with this logic is that terrible organizations pick #1 on most years.

To a degree yes, but not all teams picking #1 are created equal. Carolina picked #1 this year, and while they weren't a good football team in 2022, that franchise isn't a career hell-hole. If I were a QB draftee to be, I'd pick starting my career in Carolina over Arizona 10 times out of 10.

Goff went #1 to the Rams, another franchise I'd pick way before the Arizonas and Clevelands.

That's fair. The other possibility is that the same franchise picks #1 twice in a row. Has that ever happened recently?

Pink Stripes wrote:

That's fair. The other possibility is that the same franchise picks #1 twice in a row. Has that ever happened recently?

I intentionally left out that team due to personal bias, but the QB taken by that franchise is doing great thank-you-very-much.

Sheesh. I tell you, you have one teensy little season of complete and outright sabotage...

There was a two-year stretch (2017-18) that my former team did not win a game on a Sunday. They picked Myles Garrett and Baker. So even without dunking on Legion, it happens.

fangblackbone wrote:

I am surprised at the lack of Vegas bashing here.
And I definitely would not go to Dallas or Chicago.

In fact I think the list of places I would go is smaller and more interesting.

What orgs are in less flux than KC, Philly and SF?
Everyone lower than that has major dysfunction.

I don't think I'd trust the Bengals. Sure they seem to have it together now but they've been bad for a LONG time to be overwritten by 2 years of success.

Seattle? Yah, not them either. Better than the Pats but same set in their ways hanging over everything.

Minnesota is a maybe. Pittsburgh is a maybe. Denver is a maybe leaning towards yes.

A lot of the issues teams have aren't "dysfunction", though, it's more the longer-term impact from bad contracts, draft picks that didn't work out, and so forth. Dysfunctional teams always do dumb things, functional teams try to do smart things and sometimes it doesn't work out. The Bucs in the 2010s were awful but functional; Greg Schiano *spits on the ground* was a college coach who'd turned a bad team around and had Belichick Ties, and made some sense. Lovie Smith was a formerly very successful coach who theoretically would bring stability, and didn't. Dirk Koetter was another "good OC, bad HC", and there's loads of those.

Seattle, New England, and Minnesota are all well-run organizations with varying levels of success, and certainly have some questions about some football decisions but I don't think most of those decisions were really questionable at the time, and none of them are going to do things like Houston hiring a minister/motivational speaker as GM, Arizona alienating players by charging them for food, Jimmy Haslam being slimy in every possible way, or Dan Snyder being Dan Snyder.

At some point, being an NFL team is kind of like being a parent; it's absolutely OK to screw up in all sorts of ways, but, on some level, if everybody knows you're generally trying to do the right thing, it's fine in the long run.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
fangblackbone wrote:

I am surprised at the lack of Vegas bashing here.
And I definitely would not go to Dallas or Chicago.

In fact I think the list of places I would go is smaller and more interesting.

What orgs are in less flux than KC, Philly and SF?
Everyone lower than that has major dysfunction.

I don't think I'd trust the Bengals. Sure they seem to have it together now but they've been bad for a LONG time to be overwritten by 2 years of success.

Seattle? Yah, not them either. Better than the Pats but same set in their ways hanging over everything.

Minnesota is a maybe. Pittsburgh is a maybe. Denver is a maybe leaning towards yes.

A lot of the issues teams have aren't "dysfunction", though, it's more the longer-term impact from bad contracts, draft picks that didn't work out, and so forth. Dysfunctional teams always do dumb things, functional teams try to do smart things and sometimes it doesn't work out. The Bucs in the 2010s were awful but functional; Greg Schiano *spits on the ground* was a college coach who'd turned a bad team around and had Belichick Ties, and made some sense. Lovie Smith was a formerly very successful coach who theoretically would bring stability, and didn't. Dirk Koetter was another "good OC, bad HC", and there's loads of those.

Seattle, New England, and Minnesota are all well-run organizations with varying levels of success, and certainly have some questions about some football decisions but I don't think most of those decisions were really questionable at the time, and none of them are going to do things like Houston hiring a minister/motivational speaker as GM, Arizona alienating players by charging them for food, Jimmy Haslam being slimy in every possible way, or Dan Snyder being Dan Snyder.

At some point, being an NFL team is kind of like being a parent; it's absolutely OK to screw up in all sorts of ways, but, on some level, if everybody knows you're generally trying to do the right thing, it's fine in the long run.

Exactly.

Additionally, if you really do run a functional organization, it is very difficult for you to find yourself in the running for a top 5 draft pick. It would require a confluence of a lot of factors including truly bad luck and/or deliberate sabotage to get you to the kind of space that teams like the Texans, Browns, Commanders, and Jacksonville find themselves in with some regularity. And it is these draft bounties that eventually form the talent nucleus of teams when they eventually reach the peak of their Super/Suck sine wave.

Hell, the Bengals are only the Bengals now because of nearly a decade in the playoffless wilderness. Jacksonville, Miami, and even Buffalo had periods of pure suck to build their cores.

The Ravens haven't had a pick in the top five since 2000 and only three top 10 picks this century.
The Steelers haven't picked in the top five since Terry Bradshaw.

Rat Boy wrote:

So how many quarters will it take for this to Thursday up tonight? Two?

This is the one Thursday game that shouldn't Thursday it up, because it's the one not played on a short week. Note that I say "shouldn't", not "won't".

And why does the opener have to be Kansas City? Enough already. I shouldn't have watched Netflix's Quarterback. I'm already sick of Mahomes.

Starting to get some Nick Bosa contract details, and one very important detail is that the extension didn't redo his 2023 contract year (rookie contract 5th year option season).

That means the "5 years, $170 million" is in reality a 6 year, $189 million agreement, which brings that AAV down to $31.5m/yr, or just a hair behind Aaron Donald's $31.67m/yr.

We see this pretty often now with extensions, and it clouds the compensation discussion somewhat. It's true that the Bosa extension is $34m/yr, but you do need to make a distinction between an extension where the player has their original deal torn up and replaced (or is a free agent and doesn't have any remaining years), and an extension where the player agrees to still play a year at below-market value before the extension kicks in.

A better example of this is the recent Justin Herbert deal, where the 5 years at $52.5m average don't start until 2025. He's still playing out his rookie deal's 4th year and his 5th year option at way-below-market rate. So while Herbert's extension technically passed Lamar's in terms of annual average, Herbert's playing two more cheap years before that extension begins, while Lamar is playing for that pay right now. It would be more accurate to say Herbert is under contract for 7 years, ~$300m total = about $43m/yr.

Oh right.. Chiefs fans still do the racist chop thingy.

TheGameguru wrote:

Oh right.. Chiefs fans still do the racist chop thingy.

Doing the chop thingy isn't racist, it's racial stereotyping or insensitive, but not racist. I 100% agree that it is not right. I just wanted to clarify the difference because the current GOP mindset is grouping it all together and using the lesser as an out.

The NFL is leaning a bit too hard into making fun of the “it’s all scripted” accusations. The accusations are moronic, but the response is getting into “lady doth protest too much” territory.

Bunch of 4th down silliness.

Now one 1st down for Detroit and it's over

Yeah, going for it on 4th and 25 down 1 in your own territory when you have two timeouts and the two minute warning is certainly a choice.

I haven't really been paying attention so I don't know if the Lions are actually good but, from what I've seen, the Chiefs look like sh*t.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Yeah, going for it on 4th and 25 down 1 in your own territory when you have two timeouts and the two minute warning is certainly a choice.

That’s a “we don’t trust our defense without Chris Jones” call.

Oh boy.

Going to be a long year for Mahomes if the only guy he can count on is Kelce.

First week definitive statements are going to be as fun as always, I see.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5eOqVGXsAArah9?format=jpg&name=small)

/smiles in Giants fan

Well done

billt721 wrote:

First week definitive statements are going to be as fun as always, I see.

Well of course.

Chiefs will be lucky to make the playoffs!

Lions, zomg to the Superb Owl!

Try it! It's therapeutic.

For Chiefs fans who didn't watch the game.

The good news:
1) Mahomes can still make all the throws and has amazing pocket presence.
2) The refs still love you since they didn't call a single false start penalty on Jawaan Taylor despite the fact that he was early on just about every snap he played.
3) The secondary largely held up.

The bad news
1) Your receivers have T. Rex arms in traffic.
2) Your front four can't stop the run without Jones.
3) Reid makes questionable decisions when in the unfamiliar territory of trailing late.

Paleocon wrote:

The refs still love you since they didn't call a single false start penalty on Jawaan Taylor despite the fact that he was early on just about every snap he played.

As an old OT, I generally only pay attention to the tackles. I don't think he was starting early that often; definitely very close and a few early starts for sure but not that many.

What was egregious and should have been flagged every time was when he lined up in the backfield on every pass play. At least make the attempt to look like you are playing on the line, man.