Welcome to Week 1 of the 2023 season!
[18,000 words of hot takes and predictions follows]
And in conclusion, the Chiefs are (probably) going to win another Super Bowl.
POWER RANKINGS
Get a load of this nonsense: NFL.com, CBS Sports, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, ESPN and PFT all have the Chiefs atop of their power rankings. Recency bias is alive and well! So, too, is Patrick Mahomes (but maybe not Travis Kelce; I guess we'll see Thursday night).
After that, most of them have the Eagles at No 2, followed (but not in every case) by some combination of the Bills, Bengals and 49ers.
Other teams in the top 10 of these preseason power rankings: Dolphins, Cowboys, Ravens, Jaguars, Jets and Chargers, with the Browns (CBS), Lions (ESPN) and Seahawks (PFT) getting some love, too.
Everyone agrees that the Cardinals are going to suck. I wonder if Caleb Williams is looking for a way to extend his eligibility?
RANDOM CRAP
* To come up with its power rankings, ESPN does a lot of full-season sims. (It claims 20K; I call shenanigans.) For this story, it picked one of those sims. In this universe:
== Eagles win the Super Bowl over the Ravens
== Chiefs win 13 games, most in the league.
== Jets win the AFC East, and the Lions and Commanders both make the playoffs.
== Cowboys end up with the No. 2 overall pick only because they beat the Cardinals in Week 3 (which cost them the No. 1 overall).
== Saints and Falcons start 0-4, and Panthers win the NFC South (but get blown out in the WC round by the Seahawks, boo).
I mean, it could happen.
* The Jets are riding the league's longest playoff drought; they haven't been in 12 seasons (since 2010, when Rex Ryan was the HC and pre-Butt Fumble Mark Sanchez was QB). Broncos haven't been in seven seasons (since their last Super Bowl season). Next is the Lions (six seasons), followed by the Panthers and Falcons (2017; 5 seasons).
* Speaking of futility, only four teams (Browns, Lions, Jags, Texans) have never appeared in the Super Bowl. And here are the eight teams that have never won a Super Bowl: Vikings, Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Panthers, Chargers, Cardinals and Titans/Oilers). NO PRESSURE GUYS
* It's tempting to think of the first month of the season as an extension of the preseason. The games don't really count till November and December, and it's only September. Teams change a lot between now and then. Blah blah blah. But a look back at the 2022 season suggests that thinking is a load of crap. After four weeks of the 2022 season, the Eagles were 4-0, the Chiefs were 3-1, and all the playoff teams were 2-2 or better. (The one glaring exception? The Packers, who were the only 3-1 to miss the playoffs.)
* The Ringer's QB rankings just dropped. The top 5: Mahomes (durr), Allen, Herbert, Burrow and Lamar. There's lots of grist for the hot take mill here.
* Football Outsiders (as some of you all know) imploded this summer. DVOA now lives at FTNfantasy.com. Mike Tanier is now writing his Monday column at The Messenger. (The best way to find it is to check his Twitter feed for a link; here's his latest, which is a team-by-team preview of the season for those who filthily skimmed my 18,000-word season preview above.
OBLIGATORY GIF
I won't lie: I was entertained by the 2023 Hard Knocks version of the Jets. Quinnen Williams is a hoot, Robert Saleh is a badass and Aaron Rodgers is a likable weirdo when you keep him away from non-football topics.
SELF-SCOUTING THE ...
Carolina Panthers!
Quick take: Everything's new! New head coach, new all-star coaching staff, new QB, new skill players, new smell. (The stank of the Previous Era is just about gone, though Brian Burns' holdout is starting to smell like the ol' futility.)
Best case: Bryce Young is all that and more, the O-line (the team's best unit a year ago) takes a big step forward, and the D (Burns, Jaycee Horn, Frankie Luvu, Derrick Brown) swarms. Panthers win 10+ games and the NFC South title (and maybe a playoff game, why not).
Worst case: No one can catch the ball (the WR and TE rooms are a little sus), the new 3-4 defense doesn't click and the new coaching staff can't get along. Carolina struggles mightily thanks to a brutal opening stretch (Weeks 1-6 is a gauntlet), and a lack of depth (and talent, let's be honest) up and down the lineup is a killer. I stop hoping around Halloween, and the Panthers rally to go 6-11.
Realistic case: The Panthers are a .500 team on a really good day, which is to say 6-8 wins seems likely. It's clearly Year 1 of the rebuild. I'm looking for progress out of QB1 and hoping for better things in 2024.
Season summary in one GIF:
WEEK 1 SCHEDULE
Everyone's 0-0, and all the games are good.
Thursday
Lions at Chiefs (NBC)
Sunday early
Panthers at Falcons
Texans at Ravens
Bengals at Browns
Jaguars at Colts
Buccaneers at Vikings
Titans at Saints
Niners at Steelers
Cardinals at Commandos
Sunday late
Packers at Bears (Burkhardt and Olsen on Fox)
Raiders at Broncos
Dolphins at Chargers
Eagles at Patriots (Nantz and Romo on CBS)
Rams at Seahawks
... judging by the announcer lineup, we might be in for a late-game doubleheader!
Sunday night
Cowboys at Giants (NBC)
Monday
Bills at Jets (ABC and ESPN, plus ManningCast)
Your coverage maps will be here Wednesday.
ManningCast schedule for 2023, in case you plan this far ahead: Weeks 1, 4-5, 7, 9-11, 13, 15 and a wild card game tba.
Good luck to all of your teams (except the Saints, who can go straight to hell), and pray for Tiny Bryce Young's health and safety.
Any of y'all who want to do a self-scouting take, use the same format as I did above. Or not. I honestly don't care. Just keep it short! And please include a GIF (or this picture from the NFL's gallery of its 10 best preseason pics)
And in conclusion, the Chiefs are (probably) going to win another Super Bowl.
No Chris Jones for probably a big chunk of the season. Kelce probably not 100% for the first month of the season. Replaced Orlando Brown with renowned hugger Jawaan Taylor. Actually counting on Kadarius Toney now that Juju is gone.
Mahomes covers up a lot of sins, but these are the kind of things people look back on after gushing predictions don't pan out and say, "oh, yeah, right, those things."
The AFC is going to be brutal. I'm thinking back to the 2008 season when the Patriots went 11-5 and didn't even make the playoffs.
I wonder how the Raiders felt about Jimmy G taking a ride with the Thunderbirds. Not that something bad would happen to the aircraft, but what taking 9 Gs would do to Jimmy G's body.
Sunday early
Niners at Steelers
Nice of them to just start screwing West Coast teams in week 1 and not pretend
Enix wrote:And in conclusion, the Chiefs are (probably) going to win another Super Bowl.
No
I honestly have no hot take about what's going to happen this season. The Chiefs are simply the easiest (and everyone's laziest) pick at the moment. As you can tell, I put as much effort into this post as the Panthers did in the offseason to work out a new deal for Brian Burns.
A year ago, the Bills (a defensible pick in hindsight, but obviously wrong) were pulling the preseason hype train, and the Chiefs were up there close to the engine. But everyone missed on the Eagles, who started out about 15 cars back. So who are the 2023 Eagles?
OK, I'll play.
The Two-Time Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quick take: The slogan of this year is It Was Worth it. There's something north of $76 million in dead cap this year, about half of which is what's left of Tom Brady. That, and a second Lombardi, so, again, It Was Worth It. There are still holes on the offensive line and there are logical concerns the Bucs could be turning the best RT in the league to a bad LT, Ryan Jensen is done, and Luke Goedke is going to start at RT and calling him a disaster last year as a rookie would be generous. Mike Evans wants a new contract, there isn't much pass rush, and the best thing I can say about Baker Mayfield is at least he's not Carson Wentz. There are 13 rookies on the roster, 6 of which are UDFAs, one of whom will be starting at nickel CB. This is absolutely a "take your medicine" year, and It Was Worth It.
Best case: IT'S THE NFC SOUTH PEOPLE. Throw in games against the AFC South as well, and, yes, the Bucs could absolutely win this division. Wait, no, they could lose it less than everybody else and fall into the playoffs if Baker doesn't completely suck and they have another rookie class that plays like 2020's did, and the defense gets good and there's just enough offense to get by. I can see 9-8 or 8-9 winning this division.
Worst case: The worst case scenario is having $76 million of dead cap and Baker Mayfield as QB, so, you know. The genuine worst case is, to me, something like 5-12 or 6-11 or so, and getting the 5th/6th pick in the draft while we all watching Arizona at picks 1 and 2. There are just too many bad teams on the schedule and while QB sucks, the Bucs have enough talent they're accidentally winning some games.
Realistic case: 6-11, the genuine worst case from above. Not bad enough to get a shot at a high-tier QB prospect, but not good enough to threaten playoffs.
The gif:
Because, of course, It Was Worth It.
SELF-SCOUTING THE ...
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quick take: The Jags are good now? The Jags might be good now. I've forgotten how to handle that.
Best case: Trevor Lawrence is the ascending-to-elite QB that year 2 made him look like he might be. Calvin Ridley still has all of his skills, plus health. ETN continues to make that late 1st round pick used on him not seem like such a bad idea. Travon Walker makes the expected year 2 jump, and the late season growth of the defense last year proves to not be a mirage. The Jags face the Niners in a surprise Super Bowl matchup.
Worst case: Lawrence hits a hard ceiling as a 2nd tier QB. ETN gets hurt again. Ridley can't handle true WR1 duties. The defense turns back into a pumpkin, and Walker heads down the Jadeveon Clowney career path. Derrick Henry goes back to stomping the defense twice a year, and the Jags fall behind Tennessee for the division (and out of the playoffs entirely, because the AFC wildcards aren't coming from the South)
Realistic case: The AFC South is so bad that the Jaguars would have to really flub things to not win the division. Question is, are they going to be an 11-13 win contender, or an 8-10 win pretender?
Season summary in one GIF:
SELF-SCOUTING THE ...
San Francisco 49ers
Quick take: The championship window is right now. Is the QB position up for it?
Best case: Brock Purdy's 8-game run last season wasn't a mirage. CMC continues to stay healthy and do CMC things. The team's gambles on lower-priced offensive linemen continue to pay off. Javon Hargrave is the pass rusher he's being paid to be. Nick Bosa signs and earns that money. The Niners face the Jags in a surprise Super Bowl matchup.
Worst case: Purdy ends up looking more like Nick Mullens 2.0. CMC and Elijah Mitchell injury woes come back. Mike McGlinchey turns out to not be as replaceable as thought. Hargrave doesn't live up to the contract. Bosa's holdout drags into the season. The Niners still limp to a semi-competitive season on the strength of their roster, coaching, and overall weakness of the NFC, but lack the firepower to do any postseason damage.
Realistic case: The NFC feels like a three horse race between the Eagles, Niners, and Cowboys. It's hard to envision the Niners not being one of the 7 playoff teams. But whey they get there, who will be QB, and will he be enough?
Season summary in one GIF:
I expected your self-scout of the niners to be all about Jake Moody. I sad.
OK, I'll play.
The Two-Time Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers ...
On one of the NFL pods I listen to, I heard the Bucs described thusly (and I'm paraphrasing a paraphrase): The Bucs have 13-win talent and a 3-win QB.
I think someone said that before the entire O-line went on IR, however.
I expected your self-scout of the niners to be all about Jake Moody. I sad.
Just like Jake Moody, I won't miss again.
If the Commanders manage to lose their opener against the tankiest of tank teams, there will be an angry mob with pitchforks and torches going after Rivera.
Returning after a very long hiatus to the forums.
Do we still do picks? Asking for a friend 
If the Commanders manage to lose their opener against the tankiest of tank teams, there will be an angry mob with pitchforks and torches going after Rivera.
I think Rivera is toast regardless, as much as it pains me to type that. New ownership usually wants a new coach (as the Riverboat knows all too well from his time in Charlotte), and the DC owners are too busy patching up their dump of a stadium to worry too much about who's coaching the team.
But, yeah, if the Commanders get blasted by The Tank this weekend, it might mean Rivera will be unemployed partway through the season rather than at the end.
PS: "Mob" implies lots of people. I'm not sure the number of fans that have been showing up for Commanders games recently would constitute a crowd, much less a mob or even a bunch.
Paleocon wrote:If the Commanders manage to lose their opener against the tankiest of tank teams, there will be an angry mob with pitchforks and torches going after Rivera.
I think Rivera is toast regardless, as much as it pains me to type that. New ownership usually wants a new coach (as the Riverboat knows all too well from his time in Charlotte), and the DC owners are too busy patching up their dump of a stadium to worry too much about who's coaching the team.
But, yeah, if the Commanders get blasted by The Tank this weekend, it might mean Rivera will be unemployed partway through the season rather than at the end.
PS: "Mob" implies lots of people. I'm not sure the number of fans that have been showing up for Commanders games recently would constitute a crowd, much less a mob or even a bunch.
I believe I saw that the first game is sold out. So it might actually be a mob now. Either way, you're correct. Barring some miraculous playoff run, Ron is done at the end of the season anyways.
Caleb Williams' dad is already putting it out there that his son won't necessarily enter the draft if they don't like the team that's picking at #1:
I mean, I've talked to Archie Manning—his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I've talked to Lincoln [Riley], and Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. The organizations matter.'
I'm not sure which name in that list speaks the loudest: Archie Manning or Kyler Murray. He name-dropped the guy who famously engineered his son's refusal to play for the Chargers, as well as the QB currently on the team expected to try and take Caleb.
Returning after a very long hiatus to the forums.
Do we still do picks? Asking for a friend 8-)
Welcome back, and nope, haven't for a few years.
It looks like the three most popular survivor pool picks are, in order:
Baltimore over Houston
Washington over Arizona
Kansas City over Detroit
Considering Washington will likely finish out with the least number of wins and this is the first game of the season, that game seems like the smart choice.
It looks like the three most popular survivor pool picks are, in order:
Baltimore over Houston
Washington over Arizona
Kansas City over DetroitConsidering Washington will likely finish out with the least number of wins and this is the first game of the season, that game seems like the smart choice.
Betting on Washington is never the smart choice.
SELF-SCOUTING THE ...
Seattle Seahawks!
Quick take: A strong rookie class last year and Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith moved this team from 'rebuilding' to 'contending' in a remarkably short period of time.
Best case: Everyone stays healthy, Geno Smith continues to grow in the offense, and the youngsters at offensive tackle make a typical year 1-2 jump. The defense, while not great up front, is bolstered by a healthy secondary that is among the best in the league, and Bobby Wagner has another year in the tank. Offensive fireworks + league average defense = deep playoff run.
Worst case: Smith regresses, the offensive line crumbles and Jamal 'Mr. Glass' Adams and company get hurt in the first few weeks. This year's crop of rookies aren't as good as last year. Top-10 pick and the team is stuck in QB limbo.
Realistic case: The Seahawks have a great roster on paper, a great coaching staff, and in a division with one team fully tanking and another that is a few stars and LOTS of scrubs, a wild card berth is very reasonable. Unfortunately the team is probably too thin in the trenches to make a deep playoff run, but should be fun to watch trying!
Season summary in one GIF:
Caleb Williams' dad is already putting it out there that his son won't necessarily enter the draft if they don't like the team that's picking at #1:
I mean, I've talked to Archie Manning—his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I've talked to Lincoln [Riley], and Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. The organizations matter.'I'm not sure which name in that list speaks the loudest: Archie Manning or Kyler Murray. He name-dropped the guy who famously engineered his son's refusal to play for the Chargers, as well as the QB currently on the team expected to try and take Caleb.
And here I thought the funny bit was implying that BAKE would have succeeded if he were drafted by someone other than Cleveland.
And just as expected, the Bosa holdout is over.
Bosa signs for 5 years, $170m, with $122.5m guaranteed. At $34m/yr, that blows past Aaron Donald’s $31.66m/yr.
Quite the jump in AAV, when expectations were somewhere in the $32m/yr range.
First thought: If Carolina thought they were gonna sign Brian Burns for $23m/yr, as we heard rumored earlier today, they can forget it. Burns apparently asking for around $28m/yr.
Second thought: Hard to imagine there's any way the Chiefs are going to bring Chris Jones under contract now. The Chiefs either need to move him in a trade, or he's just going to report late in the year and coast his way to the end of the year and free agency.
And just as expected, the Bosa holdout is over.
Burns is gonna get that bag! (Not a $34 million/year bag, but something with nearly as many slots.)
Agent 0 has taken a really fascinating approach to all of this. He didn't skip training camp and, until last week, hadn't missed any practices. He was at practice today, and I guess he'll play Sunday.
I think Burns figured he'd come out ahead if he assumed the role of Good Teammate and senior leader, and I think he's right: He was elected one of six Panthers' captains today, and I think public opinion is on his side. Folks have forgiven Panthers' ownership now that Reich and Bryce are on board, but we haven't forgotten that Tepper hired a stubbly dumpling to be head coach. Guy has a chance to do right by one of his stars, so he needs to trim that hedge of his by about 28 million leaves.
You may hear slanderous news at some point today regarding Jake Haener and a PED suspension.
Rest assured, the accusations are false. It's a hoax, a witch hunt by the Fresno hating NFL. It was a perfect phone call nutritional supplement.
I think Burns figured he'd come out ahead if he assumed the role of Good Teammate and senior leader, and I think he's right: He was elected one of six Panthers' captains today, and I think public opinion is on his side.
He's lucky he didn't hurt anything in practice in the meantime.
Former Buccaneers WR Mike Williams passed away after a construction site accident.
This is the Mike Williams that went to Syracuse and was a 4th round pick by Tampa in 2010, not the USC player that was the #10 overall pick by the Lions in 2005, or the one that played for the Dolphins in the '90s. And obviously not the one that plays for the Chargers right now. There's been so many Mike Williamses that played wide receiver that I legitimately asked out loud "which one?" when the notification popped on my phone.
He was only 36 years old.
Enix wrote:I think Burns figured he'd come out ahead if he assumed the role of Good Teammate and senior leader, and I think he's right: He was elected one of six Panthers' captains today, and I think public opinion is on his side.
He's lucky he didn't hurt anything in practice in the meantime.
Are we about to see the first ever instance of a sports-franchise owner rewarding a player for 'doing the right thing' and 'being a good teammate'? No, probably not. There's a reason players hold-out. 1) It works (assuming you're not a RB and have actual leverage), and 2) the injury risk mentioned above.
Caleb Williams' dad is already putting it out there that his son won't necessarily enter the draft if they don't like the team that's picking at #1:
I mean, I've talked to Archie Manning—his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I've talked to Lincoln [Riley], and Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. The organizations matter.'I'm not sure which name in that list speaks the loudest: Archie Manning or Kyler Murray. He name-dropped the guy who famously engineered his son's refusal to play for the Chargers, as well as the QB currently on the team expected to try and take Caleb.
The problem with this logic is that terrible organizations pick #1 on most years.
The problem with this logic is that terrible organizations pick #1 on most years.
To a degree yes, but not all teams picking #1 are created equal. Carolina picked #1 this year, and while they weren't a good football team in 2022, that franchise isn't a career hell-hole. If I were a QB draftee to be, I'd pick starting my career in Carolina over Arizona 10 times out of 10.
Goff went #1 to the Rams, another franchise I'd pick way before the Arizonas and Clevelands.
Here is a fun exercise to bide us until a real football game tonight:
You are a successful college QB. You are all but certain to be the Number 1 overall pic. A genie comes to you and says whatever team you want to play for will suck, get the pick, and shiv whatever QB they have to take you (or their starter will retire). You cannot rely on any players on the team, as they may trade their stars to get enough capital to get you, but you can rely on the coaching staff and ownership to be as stable as history would indicate. (So maybe Mahomes and Kelse are gone, but Reid would still be the coach). The franchise will probably not relocate, and your earning potential as a QB in Dallas or NY would be greater than your potential in Indianapolis or Green Bay. But maybe you would rather live in one of those smaller places because it's the NFL and you can be a star anywhere.
What is your list? Where do you want to go, where do you not? And ultimately, who do you want to suck and start a rebuild around you?
I was going to say San Francisco, but then Trey Lance glared at me.
Pages