NFL 2023: The draft / post-draft / preseason thread

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The 2023 NFL draft!!
When: Thursday-Saturday (April 27-29)
Where: KC MO
TV: ESPN, ABC, NFL Network and the interwebs

Schedule
8p Thursday: Round 1
7p Friday: Rounds 2-3
Noon Saturday: Rounds 4-7

Draft order
Round 1
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago) woooooooooooooooooooo!
2. The Texans?
3. Um
4. Eh, who cares
5. Seriously, who cares
6. That's new Panthers QB Bryce Young in the header!!!
7. Panthers with the first pick, woooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
8. OK, fine. Here's the complete draft order for all seven rounds

Some useful links
NFL's official draft page and the picks tracker
The Ringer's draft guide
ESPN's official draft site
Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl highlights for those of you who love football but hate the draft

Bijan Robinson has apparently only visited with the Eagles and Bucs, and the Bucs subreddit is full of fans who believe it is 1977 and therefore a good idea to draft RBs in the first round. My worst-case scenario for the draft is Will Levis, then being set on fire, then Bijan Robinson, then just being reasonably singed, then anybody else.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Bijan Robinson has apparently only visited with the Eagles and Bucs, and the Bucs subreddit is full of fans who believe it is 1977 and therefore a good idea to draft RBs in the first round. My worst-case scenario for the draft is Will Levis, then being set on fire, then Bijan Robinson, then just being reasonably singed, then anybody else.

I dunno what you're worried about -- SEA drafts before the Bucs and there's nothing Pete Carroll likes more than reaching for RB when there are tons of other needs on the team.

My actual thoughts on this QB class:

I hate this QB class. I haven't liked it for some time. I pushed back all last year against any "tank for Young/Stroud" jokes, and I'm still not sold on any of them.

I do think the narrative of Anthony Richardson as an inaccurate, super-project QB is unfair. Once you factor in his average depth of target (DEEP) and his rate of on-target throws (not just completion percentage, which was murdered by Florida's trash receivers), his accuracy isn't woefully deficient. Also, he's a redshirt sophomore and 1-year starter, which makes him a big gamble, but also means there's likely low-hanging fruit still when it comes to coaching fixing up some issues. His athleticism is so insane that I'd probably rather trade up/down to where he makes sense and make him my pick than gamble on any of the others.

Bryce Young scares me, because there's way more ways for him to fail than to succeed. There's definitely a possible future where he's the next Drew Brees point-guard style QB, with more athleticism. But the size will be an inescapable issue - two issues, actually, because being short and being skinny are two separate problems, and the first one does show up on film if you look. His athleticism is good but overrated - he wasn't nearly the escape artist he's been painted to be, at least not on the games I watched where he was playing high talent defenses instead of Utah State or Louisiana-Monroe. The part that concerned me the most, though, was how many throws I saw that died on him. He struggled to deliver downfield when he couldn't step in and put his whole body into it. There's tools there for high level play, but there's just so little margin for error.

C.J. Stroud screams "mid" to me. Like if there was a picture in the yearbook for Most Likely To Be The Next Jared Goff, Stroud would probably be there. The athleticism is good, and he's got more juice to his legs than he showed at any point before the Georgia game. But he doesn't read the field well on those plays when his cheat code WRs aren't embarrassing the defensive backfield. None of his tools are really high-end, get-you-excited kind of tools. You can certainly do worse than Stroud, but it doesn't seem likely that he's gonna break through the Kirk Cousins ceiling. Honestly, the name that comes to mind is Baker Mayfield.

Hendon Hooker, I mean, again with the "5th grader punking all the 3rd graders at basketball" old man prospect types. And he's probably going to have to redshirt his rookie year with the ACL injury. But I actually don't mind Hooker as long as teams don't over-draft him. People have spent late 1sts on a lot worse.

Will Levis, this guy is just so Bortles, I can't. Maybe I'm underrating this kind of QB prospect now because of Bortles, because you can slot Justin Herbert into this mold, and I definitely undervalued Herbert. I guess just like Hooker, if he's drafted later in the round, I won't mind it too much. But if a team like Indianapolis really does make him the next Bortles and reach for him at #3, well, go for it.

Jake Haener IS the mid-round jewel of the class though. Bet.

Almost as bad as ESPN hype train, a week early on the thread...

*Legion* wrote:

My actual thoughts on this QB class:

I hate this QB class.

So I won't feel bad for being out of town for the whole draft then.

*Legion* wrote:

I mean, again with the "5th grader punking all the 3rd graders at basketball" old man prospect types.

Are you suggesting that Chris Weinke was not a good NFL quarterback?

billt721 wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Bijan Robinson has apparently only visited with the Eagles and Bucs, and the Bucs subreddit is full of fans who believe it is 1977 and therefore a good idea to draft RBs in the first round. My worst-case scenario for the draft is Will Levis, then being set on fire, then Bijan Robinson, then just being reasonably singed, then anybody else.

I dunno what you're worried about -- SEA drafts before the Bucs and there's nothing Pete Carroll likes more than reaching for RB when there are tons of other needs on the team.

Came in to post exactly this.

Looks like I'm not needed.

Will be getting a neon Bijan jersey for fall!

Rat Boy wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

My actual thoughts on this QB class:

I hate this QB class.

So I won't feel bad for being out of town for the whole draft then.

You definitely won't. This may be the worst draft class in forever.

Most position groups are considered crap. Bob McGinn thinks it's the worst OL class ever. WR is a mere shadow of the salad days of recent drafts. LB and S are weak.

It's the COVID leftovers class - the guys who clung to college ball with the extra eligibility, while the real NFL talent jumped to the league last draft.

Good players will eventually emerge from this class, but the overall talent level is poor. Trade downs for 2024 picks are winning moves.

Bijan is gonna score in this draft, because there's hardly any other blue chip prospects worth prioritizing over him.

Will Levis is now the betting odds favorite to go #2 overall.

C.J. Stroud has fallen behind Levis, Will Anderson, and Tyree Wilson in the odds.

Levis threw 65% for 2400 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT. Sacked 36 times.
Stroud was 66% for 3700 yards, 41 TD, 6 INT. Sacked 12 times.

Levis shouldn't be within 2 or 3 rounds of Stroud, much less above him.

I wonder if part of the betting odds are a "the Houston Texans are run by morons, so they're likely to do something dumb at #2" factor.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I wonder if part of the betting odds are a "the Houston Texans are run by morons, so they're likely to do something dumb at #2" factor.

It seems like the Colts are the ones that like Levis, so I think the thinking is that the Texans either take one of the edge rushers, or make Indy trade up to #2 to get above all the other potential QB-chasing teams and take the guy they want.

To me, the later scenario seems a major stretch. I'm buying Houston possibly taking edge rusher and dealing with QB another way, but I'm not buying someone moving up to #2 with Levis as the target.

I'm glad I'm not the only one scratching my head about why people are so excited about this QB class. Anderson, Robinson and Carter (before the combine, I'd be hesitant to take him now) were the only legit top 10 prospects, and Anderson could very well wash out if he goes to a team that doesn't work to his strengths. I'd love to see my Seahawks trade down for picks next year.

There's sure a lot of noise around Jalen Carter and the Seahawks. Not sure how I feel about that from a Niners perspective. On the one hand, he's got a high Albert Haynesworth factor. On the other hand, he's got a high Albert Haynesworth factor. Even if he ultimately ends up a useless bust, seems like he's also the guy who on occasion will just wreck the opposing team.

Minase wrote:

I'd love to see my Seahawks trade down for picks next year.

Seems this is pretty generally thought to be a weak draft, and I'm betting a lot of teams would love to trade down for picks next year.

Minase wrote:

I'm glad I'm not the only one scratching my head about why people are so excited about this QB class.

If you've been in QB Hell like the Panthers and a lot of other teams at the top of the draft order, this is the Best Class Ever, mostly because you have four guys (five if you want to be expansive and include Hendon Hooker) who all fit some sort of QB niche.

Otherwise, not so much, I guess. QB class rankings are all ret-conned anyway. The hit rate on QBs drafted in the first-round is surprisingly low, but the chance of finding a decent QB outside the first round is much, much worse.

Also: A lot of this happy talk is from agents (who want a first-round payday for their clients) and GMs (who are hoping they can sucker someone into trading up). So much noise!

For fun, someone at NFL.com took a stab at ranking the QB classes since 2000. See if you can guess the second-best class (after 2004, which had Eli, Rivers, Big Ben going in the first 11 picks).

If you've been in QB Hell like the Panthers and a lot of other teams at the top of the draft order, this is the Best Class Ever, mostly because you have four guys (five if you want to be expansive and include Hendon Hooker) who all fit some sort of QB niche.

Oh, I fully expected to be one of those teams at this time last year. Part of my trepidation about this class is that so many of these guys will need good coaching to succeed - and teams drafting in the top 5 are typically there because they don't have that, and it will be tough to try a Mahomes/Rodgers on any of these teams and sit them behind a veteran.

So the draft is here in KC and one of the local law firms invited my wife and I to come to their VIP suite to watch. Sounds awesome. Unfortunately it's the same night as my daughter's 7th grade play and I have been advised by my attorney that I will be in attendance at the middle school play.

Unfortunately it's the same night as my daughter's 7th grade play and I have been advised by my attorney that I will be in attendance at the middle school play.

Ouch. I hope they bring it to Seattle sometime, I would love to have the chance to attend.

Minase wrote:

I'd love to see my Seahawks trade down for picks next year.

My sense is that Pete is in Win Now mode and has convinced himself (?) they are a player away from winning 3 Super Bowls in a row.

In fairness, he always thinks they're about to go undefeated.

Pete Carroll is also 71 years old. I expect Seattle's focus will be on the short term for however long Pete sticks around.

My sense is that Pete is in Win Now mode and has convinced himself (?) they are a player away from winning 3 Super Bowls in a row.
In fairness, he always thinks they're about to go undefeated.

Yeah, not so much. A strong defensive draft could go a long way but there are a LOT of holes to fill there, and the division isn't a QB-less wasteland like the NFC South where you can stack up easy wins. I'm guessing another wild-card berth if everyone stays healthy and Geno is the real deal, and then FA to fill the gaps and go on a run in 2024.

Minase wrote:
Unfortunately it's the same night as my daughter's 7th grade play and I have been advised by my attorney that I will be in attendance at the middle school play.

Ouch. I hope they bring it to Seattle sometime, I would love to have the chance to attend.

Do 7th grade plays frequently tour Seattle?

It is done, it seems:

Jets get:
Aaron Rodgers, pick No. 15, a 2023 5th-rd pick (No. 170).

Packers get:
Pick No. 13, a 2023 2nd-rd pick (No. 42), a 6th-rd pick (No. 207), a conditional 2024 2nd-rd pick that becomes a 1st if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays.

Pink Stripes wrote:

It is done, it seems:

Jets get:
Aaron Rodgers, pick No. 15, a 2023 5th-rd pick (No. 170).

Packers get:
Pick No. 13, a 2023 2nd-rd pick (No. 42), a 6th-rd pick (No. 207), a conditional 2024 2nd-rd pick that becomes a 1st if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays.

I'd love for Legion to do the draft value analysis on this, but I feel like the Panthers paid more to get Sam Freakin' Darnold (who in all fairness eventually got all his shots, supposedly). Then again, HEY DARNOLD played more games for Carolina than Rodgers probably will for the Jets.

I was with the collective "it'll happen after the draft" crowd; Packers did better than I'd think, particularly with that conditional pick. Didn't think they'd have a shot at a first, and that seems a pretty easy bar to hit barring the obvious injury.

Lots of big jobs getting shuffled around today.

Enix wrote:

I'd love for Legion to do the draft value analysis on this, but I feel like the Panthers paid more to get Sam Freakin' Darnold (who in all fairness eventually got all his shots, supposedly). Then again, HEY DARNOLD played more games for Carolina than Rodgers probably will for the Jets.

The conditional pick is where this trade separates itself from the Darnold trade.

Darnold was traded for a 2nd, a 4th, and a 6th.

The swap of 1st round picks in this deal is 100 points in value, equal to a 4th round pick. Then we've got a 2nd round pick, and a 6th round pick.

So, without the conditional pick, the deal is dead equal to the Darnold trade.

That conditional 2nd rounder in 2024 that can become a 1st is where the Rodgers deal gets at least a little value. Rodgers playing 65% of snaps is basically a given, he's only missed that number I think once in his career (not counting the Favre years). There's little reason to believe it won't end up a 1st, so I'm going to treat it like one.

Basically a 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 6th from a value standpoint.

It's less than the Packers should have gotten from the end of the Rodgers era, but given how small the Rodgers market had become by this point, it also feels like the Jets were the ones that blinked. The conditional pick baffles me, because it does nothing to protect the Jets from a Rodgers retirement before 2024. Prior to this, I would have assumed any conditional pick would have been a 2025 pick that was conditional on Rodgers' snap percentage in 2024, not 2023. The Jets could conceivably be paying this price for one year of Rodgers.

Not sure how the rotation is, but maybe the 49ers can play the Jets next year to kick Aaron's ass one more time. They certainly won't meet in the playoffs anymore

Me: Aaron has gone off the deep end with his anti-vaxing, conspiracy theory, he didn't go to Cal, he went to Butte Community College, as a Cal fan, he is dead to me.

ESPN: "Although Hall of Fame quarterback and Jets franchise icon Joe Namath gave Rodgers his blessing to wear No. 12, the new Jets quarterback is expected to wear No. 8 -- the number he wore in college at Cal"

Also Me: I LOVE YOU AARON GO BEARS!

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