A place to post and discuss news related to the recent events in Israel, including the Hamas/Islamic Jihad incursion and repercussions.
Like so much of this suffering , there isn’t a “good” outcome. If it was the idf people will hate Israel more, if it was the pijo there will be more hate for Arabs. All the roads lead to more hate and more entrenched positions from everyone.
What a snafu.
*mod*
No posting in this thread for a week. See prior page.
Current president of the European Commission (I had to look up who she was)
There is a larger story behind that statement. She was made to make those statements by the Council. I have sympathy for her as she is being forced into making statements that German politicans do not like for totally understandable reasons but at the same time she should not have been making the original statements without the Council's sign off.
Not sure how reliable this is, but Bellingcat has a pretty solid track record:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023...
Their analysis does seem to support the idea of a possible Hamas misfire in the hospital bombing.
The visuals from the site do support the notion that this was a small warhead, not one of the larger Hamas/PIJO rockets or an air dropped bomb.
One thing I will caution people about with regards to geolocation/geotagging is that GPS in the area is being subjected to heavy jamming possibly via USN EA-18Gs, so take anything using latitude and longitude coordinates with a grain of salt:
I saw an unverified video of the seconds before the explosion. It looked like it was shot fairly distant from the blast; but if it was authentic footage, there was a bright object rising in an arc, followed by a wobbly descent, a small in-air flare-up (can't tell whether it's an external detonation like an Iron Dome munition) before seconds later the ground explosion. If verified, that seems to plausibly rule out an airstrike or artillery.
The US indicative view seems to be based on overhead imagery and signal intercepts. It was nighttime so I guess they'd be able to track the rocket launch that way. But still seems fairly preliminary before conclusively working out whodunnit.
I'm leaving my earlier first blush post up as a reminder to myself that precision in language is desirable as is not leaping to conclusions; sadly it's hard to just accept US intelligence at face value anymore after the WMD debacle. But with more external data it can be corroborated I guess.
Seemed like people all over the internet were pretty vocal about Israel being at fault for the hospital strike but have gone silent now that it seems like it indeed was a Hamas misfire. What a horrible situation, period.
Some of us resisted coming to a conclusion.
I would suggest we all take this as a lesson as the information landscape is pretty difficult to navigate in real time. There will always be time for outrage. It doesn’t need to be before the facts are confirmed.
100% Paleo.
100% Paleo.
Careful. You might end up on my sig.
A podcast I listen to that does a lot of critique of Canadian News made that exact point.
We are so connected to the news and used to a regular drip-feed of information from the internet that we don't have the time that we used to (say 10+ years ago) to get a fuller story. And there are lots of organizations who are more than willing to fill that space which should be filled by facts (which take time to ferret out) with speculation and misinformation that fits the narrative they want to push.
Fast news < Accurate news
But things are still better than they were in many ways. By having so many observers able to be seen it (eventually) dials down the misinformation.
Back when the US military lied about the Gulf of Tonkin incident it took years for the truth to be known
While doubts regarding the perceived second attack have been expressed since 1964, it was not until years later that it was shown conclusively never to have happened.
So the fact that we found out fairly quickly about the true nature of the bombing is small progress.
Some of us resisted coming to a conclusion.
I would suggest we all take this as a lesson as the information landscape is pretty difficult to navigate in real time. There will always be time for outrage. It doesn’t need to be before the facts are confirmed.
To be fair, it was okay to be outraged that a hospital got blown up and hundreds of people lost their lives. Those facts were confirmed pretty early on.
It didn't matter if it was Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, the Wagner group, Black Lives Matter, Four Seasons Total Landscaping, or whoever. It's okay to be angry about hundreds of people dying even if you don't know who did it. Anger doesn't necessarily need a target.
Considering that immediately in the wake of the hospital bombing:
- The IDF released and then quietly deleted rapidly debunked videos that they claimed pinned the blame on Hamas
- and then released hilariously fake audio of a supposedly intercepted phone call that they claimed pinned the blame on Hamas, also now debunked
- and has a well-documented track record of lying to the press and public
...some skepticism of IDF claims was/is warranted.
A close ally to Netanyahu allegedly also tweeted and quickly deleted a message taking responsibility for the attack because the hospital allegedly was over a Hamas command center. And according to a former Shin Bet and IDF officer when being interviewed about the challenges of a military rescue of the hostages, he stated right out that Hamas HQ is beneath Dar al-Shifa Hospital. Excerpted from here:
“There is not just one objective with where the hostages are held, it’s probably several of them,” said Israeli. “Maybe some of them are underground and also maybe in the most protected places in Gaza.”
That, said Israeli, is Dar al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. The hospital is the center of the Palestinian medical community’s efforts to treat the tremendous influx of people wounded in the ongoing massive Israeli bombardment. It is also a morgue for the drastically increasing number of people killed in those attacks. However, in addition, it serves as a Hamas headquarters, according to Israeli.
“It's a very busy hospital, but Hamas is using their own patients and civilians as a human shield. Basically, under the hospital, they have the headquarters of the Hamas regime, the Hamas army is headquartered there. Everything is under al-Shifa Hospital.”
If the IDF is going to mount an armed rescue mission for the hostages, then they'll probably attack a hospital. If IAF is going to carry out Netanyahu's mission to exterminate Hamas, then they're going to have to attack Dar al-Shifa to destroy the command bunker underneath it. So yes, the notion that ISR attacked a Gaza hospital on purpose is entirely plausible and why it still is being believed in this particular instance. Everything over the last couple of days has been a dry run for when an attack on a hospital actually happens and if you thought the backlash against ISR now is bad, wait until then.
There's enough data from various intelligence sources that it seems fairly solid that the hospital was struck by a misfired and/or intercepted Hamas rocket. I'm glad it was not an IDF strike even though as I posted previously, it's a wholly unnecessary tragedy either way. It also says a lot that based on their history of willingness to ignore Hamas's human shields in their retaliatory strikes, it was entirely plausible that it could have been an IDF strike on the facility.
One bit of genuinely good news is that there are increasing indications that the casualty count was inflated in initial reports (and quite potentially grossly inflated).
As Paleo noted, this is why it's important not to be too quick to assign blame or take initial reports at face value in such a murky mess of a situation as this.
But what can realistically be done? They won't just leave power, and they have guns/missles/RPGs/etc. and are not all that worried about killing Palestinians.
I read that as a thinly veiled warning about US politics.
Looking forward beyond the end of Hamas, what is the long term plan for governance? I say this because Hamas IS the government in Gaza. They run the police, the hospitals, the schools, and just about everything you actually need a government for. Is the Israeli plan to go in, break stuff, create a humanitarian disaster, destroy all civic infrastructure, and then.... leave? Not only would this result in the likely avoidable deaths of literal hundreds of thousands, it would absolutely ensure that whatever rises up to fill the power vacuum would be many times WORSE than Hamas.
It is also clear that Israel has left itself with very few good alternatives. They can ask the UN to step in, but Russia has a veto and a very clear interest in creating even more chaos there. They can ask other global organizations to help, but there is a paucity of interest in inheriting problems of Netanyahu's creation. They can ask the Egyptians to open their borders and pay them to assume a refugee crisis they didn't create. They can take their medicine and commit to a 40 year occupation and institute colonial governance (while fighting an insurgency without end). Or they can go full Milosovic with 20th century measures that I can't discuss without getting banned.
I suspect we will see Netanyahu go in, break stuff, create his humanitarian disaster, and then attempt to guilt the rest of the world for not bailing him out.
Because he's an asshole.
I think Paleo has articulated something orthogonal to the "Great Man" theory: the "Colossal Asshole" explanation.
Is the Israeli plan to go in, break stuff, create a humanitarian disaster, destroy all civic infrastructure, and then.... leave?
Wouldn't be the first time.
I figure it's either that, or annexation (whether partial or complete) and relocating displaced Palestinians to other nations or to the West Bank or to ghettos protected enclaves.
Paleocon wrote:Is the Israeli plan to go in, break stuff, create a humanitarian disaster, destroy all civic infrastructure, and then.... leave?
Wouldn't be the first time.
I figure it's either that, or annexation (whether partial or complete) and relocating displaced Palestinians to other nations or to the West Bank or to
ghettosprotected enclaves.
"relocating displaced Palestinians to other nations" is the definition of forced migration aka ethnic cleansing.
Yep. It's long been the US treatment of North American indigenous peoples all over again.
Looking forward beyond the end of the NSDAP, what is the long term plan for governance? I say this because the NSDAP IS the government in Germany. They run the police, the hospitals, the schools, and just about everything you actually need a government for. Is the Allied plan to go in, break stuff, create a humanitarian disaster, destroy all civic infrastructure, and then.... leave? Not only would this result in the likely avoidable deaths of literal hundreds of thousands, it would absolutely ensure that whatever rises up to fill the power vacuum would be many times WORSE than the NSDAP.
Leaving aside what could be worse than Hamas, I think it's a really good question Paleo asks.
I would say that after Israel gets Hamas (assuming that's even possible), the trade off is Israel could, finally, acquiesce to a two-state solution. That's the only end-goal that I can think of that isn't permanent occupation or slow-motion ethnic cleansing.
I would sincerely love to see a two-state solution where both nations acknowledge and support each other's right to exist -- but even better, collaborate on trade, infrastructure development, and other projects that build toward a shared prosperity.
Unrealistically naive and utopian of me? Yeah. But at the same time, imagine how much better Palestine and Israel could both be if they each handled self-governance for the domestic affairs while partnering to make for a more secure region together. Not only would that make the lives of both nations' civilians safer and more prosperous, but it could serve as proof to the rest of the world that it's possible to overcome differences enough to lift each other up instead of tear each other down.
The infuriating thing is that while it sounds absurd given the history of hatred and resentments from both sides, that doesn't mean it's impossible.
Paleocon wrote:Looking forward beyond the end of the NSDAP, what is the long term plan for governance? I say this because the NSDAP IS the government in Germany. They run the police, the hospitals, the schools, and just about everything you actually need a government for. Is the Allied plan to go in, break stuff, create a humanitarian disaster, destroy all civic infrastructure, and then.... leave? Not only would this result in the likely avoidable deaths of literal hundreds of thousands, it would absolutely ensure that whatever rises up to fill the power vacuum would be many times WORSE than the NSDAP.
Leaving aside what could be worse than Hamas, I think it's a really good question Paleo asks.
I would say that after Israel gets Hamas (assuming that's even possible), the trade off is Israel could, finally, acquiesce to a two-state solution. That's the only end-goal that I can think of that isn't permanent occupation or slow-motion ethnic cleansing.
It’s been something weighing on my mind, but if Hamas is essentially an existential threat to Israel like the Nazis were, then a certain number of casualties must be expected for the greater good of ending that threat and saving exponentially future lives. I agree with the two state solution but it doesn’t seem like Hamas leadership agrees. I’m just trying to work through it cause the optimist in me could see a limited campaign to rescue hostages and secure the borders being in Israel’s best interest, while the pessimist looks at this as an unconditional surrender followed by war crime trials of Hamas leaders and a Marshall plan occupation.
Jumping into the thread to keep track but also: Per the spirit of Farscry's post: What is the problem with a two-state solution? Israel cedes power. (unacceptable, we have a right to exist and any compromise suggests otherwise and we deserve payback for decades of abuse) Palestine doesn't get to stick it to Israel (unacceptable, they jumped in after WWII while we were already there and have been brutalizing us ever since so we deserve payback). Demographics: Arabs might get to actually get a vote equal to Israelis, and Heaven forbid they make decisions that go against the maximalist wishes of Israelis. It's like Germans after WWII getting to vote equally with the Jews they now live amongst but had imprisoned.
Israeli families were killed, tortured, abused. Palestinian families were killed, tortured, traumatized.
No conclusion here.
If there is going to be any chance at all for a stable, political solution, Israel cannot have any part in the occupation.
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