[Discussion] The Middle East in Crisis

A place to post and discuss news related to the recent events in Israel, including the Hamas/Islamic Jihad incursion and repercussions.

Prederick wrote:

Joe pitched that whole thing like "Hamas, you need to agree to this."

And Hamas said "Yes," and then Bibi yanked the football away. Again.

Bibi was never going to agree to any ceasefire, because he wants to resettle Gaza with Israelites. The "Total Destruction of Hamas" is a completely unrealistic goal - for every terrorist they kill, they take out a couple dozen civilians and make their entire families into new terrorists - unless the goal is actually the complete removal of the Palestinian people off of their land, so that Israel never has to worry about their "rights" ever again.

There is zero chance that Bibi ends this war without some serious threats from us (for example, no more weapons), and close to zero that Biden is willing to actually make those threats.

Keldar wrote:
Prederick wrote:

Joe pitched that whole thing like "Hamas, you need to agree to this."

And Hamas said "Yes," and then Bibi yanked the football away. Again.

Bibi was never going to agree to any ceasefire, because he wants to resettle Gaza with Israelites. The "Total Destruction of Hamas" is a completely unrealistic goal - for every terrorist they kill, they take out a couple dozen civilians and make their entire families into new terrorists - unless the goal is actually the complete removal of the Palestinian people off of their land, so that Israel never has to worry about their "rights" ever again.

There is zero chance that Bibi ends this war without some serious threats from us (for example, no more weapons), and close to zero that Biden is willing to actually make those threats.

My hyper-pragmatic take - Biden ain't touching that third rail before the election, but watch this space afterwards.

Is anyone going to be left alive in Gaza by November?

Just has an online exchange where someone was 100% seriously arguing that no one has done more to limit Israel's genocide than Biden and credits him with saving hundreds of thousands of Palestinian lives.

Rat Boy wrote:

Is anyone going to be left alive in Gaza by November?

The Israeli settlers taking over anything still standing.

Stengah wrote:

Just has an online exchange where someone was 100% seriously arguing that no one has done more to limit Israel's genocide than Biden and credits him with saving hundreds of thousands of Palestinian lives.

Apparently this is the go-to defense now. I've seen multiple accounts now repeat it anytime someone says they wish Biden wouldn't enable Israel's genocide. Always phrased the same. He's not supporting a genocide, in fact, he's done more to stop it than anyone else.

We're all in the Upside Down now. To right it, what do you do? I guess argue both the maximalist perspectives and then bring in some nuance? Genocide Joe Biden has taken months to just come to a basic understanding of Palestinian suffering but then Netanyahu would keep it going far longer and Trump would write a blank check to Netanyahu? It's hard to feel good about anything these days but then that's "how they get'cha", right?

Stengah wrote:

Just has an online exchange where someone was 100% seriously arguing that no one has done more to limit Israel's genocide than Biden and credits him with saving hundreds of thousands of Palestinian lives.

You hit someone with your car and their heart stops. Then you get out and give them CPR, and it revives them. You've done more to save their life than anyone else!

That's technically true. It's also not the point.

Nobody's done more to build international support for Ukraine than Putin.

Man, I know people are passionately, rightfully angry about this conflict, but... you don't have to be dumb.

Because I have seen so many pro-Palestine people willfully RTing the Houthi's claim that they just hit (and, in some reports online, sank) the USS Eisenhower (with no proof beyond making the claim itself, natch) and that the media/U.S. government is hiding the truth.

Like, I thought people would be able to think harder than "The U.S. has lied before, therefore the Houthis are completely, 100% honest" but once again, that's on me for naivete.

We live in a marketplace of ideas that'll successfully sell the notion that mass shootings and moon landings are faked along with elections and court case being rigged, so of course this conspiracy theory can gain traction.

Here we go again...

Israeli airstrikes near Aleppo, Syria, in the early hours of Monday killed a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps who had been deployed to the country as an adviser, according to Iranian media reports.

The Iranian was identified as Gen. Saeed Abyar by Tasnim News agency, a media outlet affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards. He was believed to be the first Iranian to be killed by Israel since the two countries nearly went to war in April, after Israel bombed Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus, killing several commanders.

So Israel is killing Iranians in Syria? Way to expand this war.

Netanyahu needs war in order to hold onto power. Even on the remote chance he agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, he'll just start another one someplace else.

Widespread reporting asserts that the IDF is now fully prepared to launch an expedition into Lebanon, maybe with Syrian actions too, as PM Netanyahu tours the Northern border yesterday. Hold onto your hats, ladies and gents, here we go again.

The IDF has also announced the cessation of operations in Jabaliyah refugee camp, after a 20 day operation that left it in ruins, and yesterday the High Court took up the delay of implementation of conscription of Haredim men. The forces from the Jabaliyah operation are reportedly moving into Rafah.

Good luck running a forever war when you're 23rd in world GDP and actively pissing off your big brother benefactor.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Good luck running a forever war when you're 23rd in world GDP and actively pissing off your big brother benefactor.

Biden probably already has his best staffers brainstorming several more “red lines” he can publicly talk about while eagerly supplying the Israeli war machine.

Video Analysis Shows Israeli Strike Used Bomb That Appeared to Be U.S.-Made

(NYT Paywall)

A video of munitions debris filmed at the school complex in central Gaza where thousands of Palestinians were sheltering showed remnants of a GBU-39, a bomb that is designed and manufactured by Boeing.
Prederick wrote:

Video Analysis Shows Israeli Strike Used Bomb That Appeared to Be U.S.-Made

(NYT Paywall)

A video of munitions debris filmed at the school complex in central Gaza where thousands of Palestinians were sheltering showed remnants of a GBU-39, a bomb that is designed and manufactured by Boeing.

Wonder if Nikki Haley signed it.

From Russian Asset With Love.

‘I never felt so isolated’: Israeli peaceniks in the US didn’t find a home in the Gaza protests. So they started their own

As New York’s annual parade in support of Israel worked its way down Fifth Avenue on Sunday, a group of Israeli citizens shouted from the sidelines.

They waved signs demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the Israelis held by Hamas. They chanted “shame” as two rightwing Israeli cabinet ministers, who have defended the killing of thousands of Palestinians civilians, passed by.

Above all, the protesters sought to challenge those Americans who regard support for the war in Gaza as a litmus test of loyalty to Israel.

“Some people booed us because they saw the word ‘ceasefire’ even though that’s the best way to bring the hostages home,” said Noa Fort, one of the organisers of the Israelis for Peace protest on Sunday.

A few hours later, the same group led a vigil in Union Square where they have gathered on many weekends since the 7 October Hamas attack and the resulting Israeli assault on Gaza. The protesters tell anyone who will listen that opposition to the war in Gaza is also support for Israel, or a freer and more equal version of it.

That’s become an increasing difficult position for the peaceniks who find themselves under attack from all sides as both apologists for, and not loyal to, Israel.

On the one side are hardline pro-Israel groups and prominent Jewish American organisations that have given unwavering support to Israel’s months-long bombardment of Gaza with little more than lip service paid to the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed. At times they have accused critics of the war of denying Israel the right to defend itself and of antisemitism, and Jewish opponents of failing as Jews.

On the other side are pro-Palestinian protesters who increasingly reject working with Israelis of any political stripe on the grounds they are Zionists. Some of those protesters also view discussion about the suffering of Israeli captives held by Hamas as cover for justifying the war.

One of the Israeli protesters, who gave her name only as Stav, recently returned to New York after defending trucks carrying aid to Gaza from attacks by Israelis who claim the food and medicines go to sustain Hamas.

“After October 7, I’ve never felt as politically isolated in my life on all sides. It’s not that my views have changed, it’s that the spectrum of collaborators has significantly narrowed,” she said.

Stav said that before the Hamas attack she worked with an array of US groups pursuing sometimes disparate goals – from seeking to protect Israel’s judicial system from a power grab by the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to ending the occupation of the Palestinian territories. She said that differences on some issues were generally not an obstacle to working together on others.

That has changed.

“After October 7, everyone’s become a lot more siloed. There’s a lot more litmus tests to even get to the point where you actually talk about the issue that you want to be collaborating about,” said Stav.

“There’s no place to have a conversation about the actual facts on the ground that takes into account the fact both Israelis and Palestinians are going to continue living between the river and the sea in some constellation, that nobody’s going anywhere. There’s 14m people there. We’re not going to ethnically cleanse half of them, no matter which half.”

Israelis in the US who oppose the occupation say they are increasingly isolated from pro-Palestinian activists they used to work with, who have shifted toward demands for renunciations of Zionism and Israel, alongside ambiguous chants, such as “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.”

Tamar Glezerman, a cofounder of Israelis for Peace whose aunt was killed by Hamas on the Be’eri kibbutz along with about 100 other people, said she welcomes the scale of the protests against the war and the broader spotlight that has thrown on to Israel’s domination of the Palestinians.

But she launched the weekly protest in Union Square to make the voices of her brand of leftwing Israelis heard without needing “to pass purity tests to enter the room”.

“Some tests we won’t be able to pass and they’re also not fair to demand them of Israelis. We’re not going to dismantle the only country where my family lives,” she said.

“I don’t define myself as Zionist or non-Zionist. I did in the past but now it has become empty of meaning. It could mean anything between someone who believes in two states coexisting peacefully to code for ‘Jews don’t deserve safety or life’. I’ve heard it used in all ways.

“So if somebody wants to discuss Zionism with me, I would like for them to define it first. The way that it’s being used now, I don’t think is helpful. It’s detrimental, actually. I read around 33% of Palestinians in the West Bank and 62% of Palestinians in Gaza prefer a two state solution. So are they Zionists?”

The Israeli peaceniks are hemmed in on the other side by support for the war among fellow Israelis, the steadfast support for Israel among US political leaders and the militancy of parts of the Jewish community in the US.

During Sunday’s parade, the Democratic Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, joined in chants calling for the military defeat of Hamas. New York City’s mayor, Eric Adams, also endorsed the war.

“We don’t want to see any innocent person die but we have to deal with the hate of Hamas and it must be dismantled and destroyed,” he said.

A recent poll found that many American Jews do not share that view. About one-third agreed with the claim that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza while only 28% said demonstrations in the US against the war are driven, as some hardline pro-Israel groups claim, solely by animus toward the Jewish state.

The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, which conducted the poll, said the results reflect “a shift in how American Jewry relates to the current Israeli government and the broader conflict”.

However, that nuance is not often heard from influential Jewish American organisations that claim to speak for the diaspora in the US and are often fervent defenders of Israeli government policies, including the present war.

Glezerman said she understands that “American Jews feel this kinship and this connection” to Israel but notes that many do not understand its complexities or have an overly sentimental view of the country.

“That’s why we say we’re Israelis. It’s not because it’s a fun, easy thing to be. It’s because it gives us a mandate to say: ‘So these people in your community are telling you that the only way to support Israel is through blanket support for the military and all these other things.’ And I am here saying, please do not,” she said.

Some of the Israeli protesters have been here before. In 2014, Jewish American organisations rallied in support of Israel’s assault on Gaza known as Operation Protective Edge in which more than 2,300 Palestinians were killed, two-thirds of them civilians.

“During Protective Edge we addressed that part of American Jewry with an open letter that said if you want to support Israel, support a normal life for us, support our possibility to grow up in peace, support our possibility to grow untraumatised, support our possibility to be like a normal country and not have a mandatory draft, support our possibility to not be oppressing other people,” said Glezerman.

“But if you want to support us by blindly supporting the Israeli government, and not just this one but government after government sacrificing the people for an idea, you’re not supporting us. There is no pro-Israel or pro-Palestine. It’s either you’re pro both or pro neither.”

As Israeli protesters in Union Square see it, too often the American public is being asked to choose between recognising the terrible toll of the war on civilians in Gaza, who are among the majority of the more than 36,500 Palestinians killed, and the suffering of the 80 Israelis still believed to be alive and held by Hamas.

“We did not really find ourselves in either of the protests that were available to us because we didn’t make a differentiation between victims,” said Glezerman.

“There has been a phenomenon, ubiquitous on both sides of this discourse, of downplaying the trauma or the horror of what is happening to victims from the opposite side. The discourse is such that if you speak about the hostages, a large part of the American left will think that you are pro continuing the war.”

And on the other hand, she said, many on the pro-Israel side don’t see the tension inherent in advocating for the hostages while supporting the war.

And on the other hand, she said, many on the pro-Israel side don’t see the tension inherent in advocating for the hostages while supporting the war.

“If pro-Israel Americans think that supporting the war is supporting the hostages, perhaps they’re not getting all of the information. So when Americans glaze over that in favour of kind of a more coherent narrative that doesn’t have any glitches, that’s less helpful than they could be,” Glezerman said.

Despite the challenges navigating their own place in the protest movement, the Israeli peaceniks draw strength from the attention thrown on to the broader conflict after years in which the Palestinians were all but abandoned by the international community while Israel tightened its grip on the occupied territories.

“One bright light in all of this is that we’re not alone in our demand for justice and equality,” said Fort.

Glezerman agrees.

“I don’t think we’ve been as close to a Palestinian state as we are now since Netanyahu came to power. I’m not saying we’re very close, but the discourse has completely changed,” she said.

Israel rescues four hostages in operation Gazan officials say killed more than 200

CNN

The Israeli military rescued four hostages in a special operation in the Nuseirat refugee camp, central Gaza, that Gazan authorities said killed 210 people and injured more than 400 others.

Noa Argamani, Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov, and Shlomi Ziv, were rescued by the Israeli military, intelligence and special forces from two separate locations in Nuseirat, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Saturday.

All four were kidnapped from the Nova music festival on October 7.

“They are in good medical condition and have been transferred to the ‘Sheba’ Tel-HaShomer Medical Center for further medical examinations,” the IDF added.

An Israeli policeman from a special counter-terrorism unit was killed in Saturday’s rescue operation, according to Israeli police.

News of the rescue came soon after Israel’s military said it was operating in Nuseirat and other areas of central Gaza, where heavy shelling and artillery fire was reported.

At least 210 people have been killed as a result of the rescue operation, the government media office in Gaza said Saturday.

The killed and wounded are arriving at two hospitals in Gaza, Al-Awda Hospital in Nuseirat and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al-Balah, the media office added.

CNN has no way of verifying casualty numbers reported by the government media office in Gaza. The media office does not differentiate between civilians and militants killed.

Interesting timing on the hostage rescue given that it occurred on the exact same day of the deadline where Benny Gantz had said he would leave the cabinet. Now his speech is set for today.

Outrage over ‘massacre’ in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages

Israeli attacks in central Gaza killed scores of Palestinians, many of them civilians, on Saturday amid a special forces operation to free four hostages held there, with the death toll sparking international outrage.

At least 274 Palestinians were killed and 698 wounded in Israeli strikes on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, Gaza’s health ministry said on Sunday. The Israeli military said its forces came under heavy fire during the daytime operation.

The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called it a “massacre”, while the UN’s aid chief described in graphic detail scenes of “shredded bodies on the ground”.

“Nuseirat refugee camp is the epicentre of the seismic trauma that civilians in Gaza continue to suffer,” Martin Griffiths said in a post on X, calling for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages.

The bodies of 109 Palestinians including 23 children and 11 women were taken to al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital, which also treated more than 100 wounded, a spokesperson, Khalil Degran, told AP.

He also said more than 100 people killed in Israeli attacks had been taken to al-Awda hospital, with 210 victims in total. That figure was also given by the Hamas media office, but could not be verified.

The Israeli military spokesperson R Adm Daniel Hagari confirmed on Saturday that dozens of Palestinians had been killed. He knew that “under 100” casualties had been reported, but could not say how many were civilians, he told a briefing.

The rescue raid was Israel’s largest such operation of the war, freeing Noa Argamani, 25, Almog Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27, and Shlomi Ziv, 40. All four were healthy and were reunited with their families on Saturday after medical tests.

Scores of hostages are believed to be held in densely populated areas or inside Hamas’ labyrinth of tunnels, making such operations extremely complex and risky. A similar raid in February rescued two hostages while leaving 74 Palestinians dead.

While Israelis celebrated their return, Palestinians in Gaza mourned the many dead, or watched over injured loved ones in the overcrowded al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital.

One wave of heavy Israeli bombing in Nuseirat was launched to secure the passage of the three men, who had been held together. Argamani was rescued alone, from a separate location.

The special forces team extracting male hostages was confronted by militants, Israel’s Channel 12 television reported, and when a rescue vehicle got stuck, called in backup from Israel’s airforce and other troops in the area. They escaped under heavy bombardment, the report said.

Special forces operated under heavy fire in a “complex urban environment” to carry out the rescue, the Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said, describing it as one of the most extraordinary operations he had seen in a decades-long military career.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said the raid – only the third successful military rescue of the war – was proof “Israel does not surrender to terrorism”. He has long insisted that military pressure is the best way to ensure the return of all Israelis captured on 7 October.

But beyond Israel, the hostages’ joyful reunions with their families were overshadowed by the horror at how many people were killed in Gaza during the operation to secure their release.

Borrell, in a post on X condemned “in the strongest terms … reports from Gaza of another massacre of civilians”. He called for a ceasefire and the release of all remaining hostages. “The bloodbath must end immediately,” he said.

As the war drags on into its ninth month, Netanyahu has come under increasing international pressure to agree a ceasefire deal and domestic pressure to secure the return of all Israelis still held in Gaza.

The rescue operation may give Netanyahu temporary relief at home. After the news broke, his political rival Benny Gantz, a security cabinet member, delayed a speech planned for Saturday evening. He had been widely expected to announce he was leaving the government, having given Netanyahu an ultimatum to form a long-term plan for Gaza.

But hostages’ families were quick to repeat their demands for a ceasefire deal to release their loved ones, saying in a statement on Saturday evening that the military could not bring back all of those still held captive.

“The hostages don’t have time. We can’t free everyone in operations, and we must go for a deal that will save lives,” said Ayala Metzger, the daughter-in-law of the hostage Yoram Metzger, 80, who this week was announced to have died in captivity.

UN Security Council backs US Israel-Gaza ceasefire plan

The UN Security Council voted 14-1 in support of the US-proposed Israel-Gaza ceasefire plan on Monday.

The proposal sets out conditions for a "full and complete ceasefire", the release of hostages held by Hamas, the return of deceased hostages' remains and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners.

The plan includes three phases that would end with a multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza, which has been largely destroyed due to the fighting.

Russia abstained from the vote and 14 counties, including the US, voted in favour of the resolution.

The first phase of the plan concerns a hostage-prisoner swap as well as short-term ceasefire.

The second phase includes a "permanent end to hostilities", as well as a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to a text of the US draft resolution.

The third phase focuses on the area's long-term outlook, and it would start a multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza.

The passage of the resolution comes weeks after President Joe Biden said the Israelis agreed to a three-phase plan that would result in a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

In March, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire.

The conflict began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on 7 October attacks. The group killed about 1,200 people and took some 251 people hostage.

The Hamas-run health ministry says the death toll in Gaza has surpassed 37,000 since Israel responded to its attack.

For some enjoyable whiplash, compare the comments (the coverage, really) of the Israeli hostage rescue over at The Telegraph vs. Al Jazeera.

Gaza Chief’s Brutal Calculation: Civilian Bloodshed Will Help Hamas

For months, Yahya Sinwar has resisted pressure to cut a ceasefire-and-hostages deal with Israel. Behind his decision, messages the Hamas military leader in Gaza has sent to mediators show, is a calculation that more fighting—and more Palestinian civilian deaths—work to his advantage.

(WSJ Paywall)

‘Unprecedented scale’ of violations against children in Gaza, West Bank and Israel, UN report says

More grave violations against children were committed in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel than anywhere else in the world last year, according to a UN report due to be published this week.

The report on children and armed conflict, which has been seen by the Guardian, verified more cases of war crimes against children in the occupied territories and Israel than anywhere else, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, Somalia, Nigeria and Sudan.

“Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory presents an unprecedented scale and intensity of grave violations against children,” the report said.

The annual assessment – due to be presented to the UN general assembly later this week by the secretary general, António Guterres – lists Israel for the first time in an annex of state offenders responsible for violations of children’s rights, triggering outrage from the Israeli government.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, issued a statement that the UN had “added itself to the black list of history when it joined those who support the Hamas murderers”.

The report details only cases that UN investigators were able to verify, so it accounts for just part of the total number of deaths and injuries of children in the course of last year.

In all, the UN verified “8,009 grave violations against 4,360 children” in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank – more than twice the figures for the DRC, the next worst place for violence against children.

Of the total number of child victims verified, 4,247 were Palestinian, 113 were Israeli.

In all, 5,698 violations were attributed to Israeli armed and security forces, and 116 to Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. Israeli settlers were judged responsible in 51 cases, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s al-Quds Brigades was involved in 21.

Between 7 October and the end of December last year, the UN verified the killing of 2,051 Palestinian children, and said the process of attributing responsibility was ongoing, but the report noted: “Most incidents were caused by the use of explosive weapons in populated areas by Israeli armed and security forces.”

The report conceded it reflected only a partial picture of the situation in Gaza.

“Owing to severe access challenges, in particular in the Gaza Strip, the information presented herein does not represent the full scale of violations against children in this situation,” it said.

The report also found grave abuses by Israeli forces in the West Bank, with 126 Palestinian children killed and 906 detained. The UN verified five cases where soldiers used boys “to shield forces during law enforcement operations”.