A place to post and discuss news related to the recent events in Israel, including the Hamas/Islamic Jihad incursion and repercussions.
“When asked the clear question on whether voters support Israel or Hamas
Cool and unbiased framing of the question s/
“When asked the clear question on whether voters support Israel or HamasCool and unbiased framing of the question s/
Precisely.
Looks like there is a deal for 50 hostages in exchange for a 4 day ceasefire plus 300 prisoners released.
Word is Israel is pivoting from "destroy Hamas immediately" to "get hostages now, whittle Hamas down over years."
So, back to the internationally accepted slow genocide. Got it.
Looks like there is a deal for 50 hostages in exchange for a 4 day ceasefire plus 300 prisoners released.
Word is Israel is pivoting from "destroy Hamas immediately" to "get hostages now, whittle Hamas down over years."
On top of that, there's a +1 day extension for each additional 10 hostages released.
....and now Hamas has another way to affect the flow of future conflicts... And Israel has more incentive to take and hold prisoners as bargaining chips.
We keep getting further from Hearts and Minds, rather than closer...
....and now Hamas has another way to affect the flow of future conflicts... And Israel has more incentive to take and hold prisoners as bargaining chips.
We keep getting further from Hearts and Minds, rather than closer...
So the deaths of innocents and violent disruptions of daily life are going to be the norm?
We're getting closer to Thoughts and Prayers.
Robear wrote:....and now Hamas has another way to affect the flow of future conflicts... And Israel has more incentive to take and hold prisoners as bargaining chips.
We keep getting further from Hearts and Minds, rather than closer...
So the deaths of innocents and violent disruptions of daily life are going to be the norm?
We're getting closer to Thoughts and Prayers.
They have been the norm for decades.
Exactly.
Keldar wrote:Robear wrote:....and now Hamas has another way to affect the flow of future conflicts... And Israel has more incentive to take and hold prisoners as bargaining chips.
We keep getting further from Hearts and Minds, rather than closer...
So the deaths of innocents and violent disruptions of daily life are going to be the norm?
We're getting closer to Thoughts and Prayers.
They have been the norm for decades.
I'm 50 years old, and I've known nothing but the "Crisis in the Middle East" for most of those years since I was raised Catholic and in Catholic schools. It never reached the point of white noise, but it's always been there, and I've always had trouble understanding it or taking sides.
I was raised in city with a large Jewish population and so I was immersed in Israeli history and Jewish culture even though I am not Jewish. I was strongly pro-Israel until 1982, when things went sideways. Since then, they have never recovered the moral high ground, and over the last 15 years or more, they have doubled and tripled down on policies that move further and further away from any reconciliation with Palestinians. Each conflict since 1982 has done more damage to Israel, and I fear that the next one will become regional fairly quickly (assuming Iran and Hezbollah determine to fully prepare to enter it or even initiate it).
I desperately want to see peace, but I see no sign that either Palestinians or Israelis desire it enough en masse to change their governments and move towards it. The last Israeli PM to make bold steps in that direction was assassinated. And Hamas has a stranglehold on public and social services in Gaza, so it's quite capable of continuing on even if the entire current leadership is captured or killed. Killing almost 2000 Israeli civilians has hardened Israeli opinion against Hamas, quite understandably, and killing thousands of civilians and leveling much of Gaza in revenge has done the inverse on the Palestinian side. Instead of shifting hearts and minds towards reconciliation, both sides have worked hard to move *away* from that. So the future will hold another conflict, but this time both sides will be ready to surpass what we are seeing this time around.
It's sickening. I fear for my friends and their families on both sides.
I agree the long-term view seems to only see things get worse over time.
One thing I haven't seen mentioned much is the demographic situation of the Gaza strip. The population has been growing rapidly (the reason why half the population is children), and was estimated to more than double in ~30 years (calling it a slow moving genocide does not fit the demographic data).
I found this IMF report an interesting read
The West Bank and Gaza has one of the fastest growing populations in the world. There has been an upward trend in the natural population growth rate, as the mortality rate has declined but the fertility rate has remained high. In the 1970s and into the early 1980s, this trend was masked by large net emigration, and population growth was relatively low (in the order of around 1—2 percent a year in the West Bank and 2-3 percent in the Gaza Strip). As from the early 1980s, however, the growth rate rose sharply due to a decline in the mortality rate, particularly for infants, and a sharp drop in the net outflow of people, which eventually turned to a net inflow. The West Bank and Gaza appears to be in a transition phase where population growth accelerates because the drop in the mortality rate is not accompanied by a similar drop in the birth rate. It is estimated that the natural population growth rate in the West Bank increased from 2.2 percent in 1968 to 3.1 percent in 1978 and to 3.5 percent in 1987. In the Gaza Strip, the corresponding rates were 2.3 percent, 3.7 percent, and 4.3 percent. The natural, or underlying, population growth rate is now estimated at just under 4 percent (3.4 percent in the West Bank and 4.6 percent in the Gaza Strip). In addition, following the signing of the Oslo Accords, there seems to have been significant net immigration.Several factors contribute to the high fertility rates, including the prevalence of early marriage and limited use of contraception.1 There has been a decline in fertility rates in the West Bank to 5.4 today from 6.7 in 1980-84, whereas the decline in the Gaza Strip has been much lower to 7.4 from 7.6. Fertility rates are negatively correlated to women’s education: women with less than secondary education have fertility rates of 6.3 while women with higher than secondary education have fertility rates of 4.5. Despite a decline in mortality rates, a demographic transition resulting in lower fertility rates does not yet seem to have taken place, particularly in the Gaza Strip.
Hostage talks show a battered Hamas is far from down and out
When David Barnea, the director of the Mossad, met Qatari mediators on Tuesday for a new round of talks over further extensions to the current ceasefire with Hamas, he was indirectly negotiating with an organisation that, though battered, is far from down and out.
The stage of the conflict that followed the 7 October attacks by Hamas in Israel now appears to be coming to a close. Whether it is succeeded by a more durable ceasefire or by a new round of fighting, whatever comes now will be different.
The chances of the truce being extended much beyond 10 days appear slim, analysts say.
One reason is that both sides are running out of hostages or prisoners whom they can free relatively painlessly. The Palestinians released from Israeli jails so far are mainly women and children. So, too, are the hostages freed by Hamas in Gaza. In the brutal calculations of such things, neither category includes “high value” individuals. Among the hostages, these would include military personnel. Among the prisoners, it may mean high-profile political leaders, those accused of very serious crimes and others thought to endanger Israel’s security.
One possibility is that the current ceasefire could be extended to include elderly and sick people among the remaining 180 or so hostages and the thousands of Palestinians in Israeli jails. But that would postpone, not prevent, the coming trial of strength.
The 7 October attacks killed more than 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians in their homes or at a music festival. The military offensive by Israel that followed has killed as many as 15,000 people in Gaza, mostly civilians, too, and devastated swaths of the territory. That toll may increase.
Nour Odeh, an analyst and commentator based in Ramallah, said that phase 2 would not be a continuation of phase 1. “[This] is when we get into the hardball. The civilian hostages is one thing, but the soldiers is another. Hamas have said all along they want ‘all for all’ [all the hostages for all the prisoners in Israel] but I don’t think [Benjamin] Netanyahu will accept such a high price.”
She added: “The likelihood of a resumption of bombardment and also a ground offensive in the south [of Gaza] continues to loom large.”
To reconcile the apparently conflicting goals of freeing the hostages and “crushing” Hamas, Israeli officials and many analysts say military pressure is the only way to force the organisation to make concessions – despite the cost in civilian life and harm to Israel’s international reputation.
Prof Kobi Michael, of the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said that the problem was “the way Hamas manipulates us and the way we respond to that manipulation. We still are not able to use the language that Hamas understands, and that is force. We have to resume the war and keep hitting Hamas,” he said.
Barnea, as head of Israel’s foreign intelligence service, should be well briefed on what Hamas may concede and its goals. He should also be well aware of the splits between the organisation’s Gaza-based leaders and those overseas. Yahya Sinwar, the leader in Gaza, and Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s best known overseas leader, detest one another.
The Mossad head will also know that although Hamas has been badly battered by the Israeli offensive, losing many of its middle-ranking commanders and much hardware, it remains a functioning organisation capable of negotiating, organising complex hostage releases and running a relatively sophisticated PR operation.
Whether Sinwar was genuinely interested in the wellbeing of hostages is debatable, but he would have been well aware of the potential impact of reports of his visits to the captives that have been published in recent days in the Israeli media. Senior Israeli military officials have repeatedly described the Gaza Hamas leader as a “dead man walking” – yet here he was, not only alive but in command and control.
This will not help Israel in negotiations. Despite its vast military power, with a third of a million troops mobilised and state of the art weaponry, it is not necessarily in a position of strength.
“Hamas know Israel will act militarily and decisively in the coming months, but sees what it is doing as a generational effort that is much larger than what happens on the battlefield,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“Hamas hopes that Israel hits so hard that it weakens Israel. Israel’s capabilities are practically infinite but Hamas sees … advantage from Israeli overreach, and that acts by Israel that are seen as repulsive by some others build sympathy towards Hamas and build antipathy towards Israel. So if you can absorb those hits, it’s to your own long-term advantage … Hamas is thinking about losing the battle but winning the war.”
NYT: Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago.
Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out.The approximately 40-page document, which the Israeli authorities code-named “Jericho Wall,” outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people.
The translated document, which was reviewed by The New York Times, did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters.
Hamas followed the blueprint with shocking precision. The document called for a barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot — all of which happened on Oct. 7.
The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information, raising questions about how Hamas gathered its intelligence and whether there were leaks inside the Israeli security establishment.
The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but experts determined that an attack of that scale and ambition was beyond Hamas’s capabilities, according to documents and officials. It is unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document, as well.
Last year, shortly after the document was obtained, officials in the Israeli military’s Gaza division, which is responsible for defending the border with Gaza, said that Hamas’s intentions were unclear.
“It is not yet possible to determine whether the plan has been fully accepted and how it will be manifested,” read a military assessment reviewed by The Times.
Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.
But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed by The Times.
“I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”
“It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. “It’s not just a raid on a village.”
Officials privately concede that, had the military taken these warnings seriously and redirected significant reinforcements to the south, where Hamas attacked, Israel could have blunted the attacks or possibly even prevented them.
Instead, the Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. It was the deadliest day in Israel’s history.
To quote Judd Hirch in Independence Day, "You knew then! And you did nothing!"
Yup. I mean, I've read several articles saying that Hamas was emphatically hiding this plan in the plainest of sight.
The man who claimed he was the only one who could protect Israel let it happen on his watch.
If you know something terrible is going to happen, and you do nothing (or too little) to stop it from happening, then you share culpability for the destruction caused.
I suspect he let it happen so he could have justification to push the 2.2 million Gazan Palestinians into Egypt. He will let his right wing "settlers" do the work in the West Bank.
Ceasefire's over.
I suspect he let it happen so he could have justification
... to become dictator for life of Israel, soon to be sans Palestinians.
I suspect he let it happen so he could have justification to push the 2.2 million Gazan Palestinians into Egypt. He will let his right wing "settlers" do the work in the West Bank.
Not buying it. That's some serious 5D chess and Bibi is incompetent. "Security Guy" my ass.
More like insecure dude living in the shadow of his brother's heroism.
Didn't Egypt also warn Israel days before the attack?
Paleocon wrote:I suspect he let it happen so he could have justification to push the 2.2 million Gazan Palestinians into Egypt. He will let his right wing "settlers" do the work in the West Bank.
Not buying it. That's some serious 5D chess and Bibi is incompetent. "Security Guy" my ass.
More like insecure dude living in the shadow of his brother's heroism.
I don't know. "If we let them attack us then we have an excuse to wipe them off the map" isn't really the level of 5D chess. Then you consider how badly he's bungled even that - if he'd made even the slightest attempt to not kill civilians instead of, say, attacking hospitals, he'd probably have a lot more international support than he does today.
there were also widespread protests in Israel against Netanyahu for almost the entire year prior to October, he needed a distraction
*mod team* post removed due to violating CoC hate speech rules.
Howdy, fellow Jew here, and what the actual hell dawg.
Sick stuff you're describing there, for sure. Even if we take your descriptions at face value, I can't see where the 2 wrongs end up making a right here. I don't know how to convince you that we all share this human experience of ours and that nobody deserves any of the above. Not the lost Israeli citizens, nor the actively-displaced Palestinian citizens. No culture or populace is a monolith.
Howdy, fellow Jew here, and what the actual hell dawg.
Sick stuff you're describing there, for sure. Even if we take your descriptions at face value,
I'm not your dawg, and my descriptions are based on fact.
I can't see where the 2 wrongs end up making a right here.
No idea where you got the notion that I'm proposing a second "wrong". De-nazification of Palestinians is not a "wrong".
No culture or populace is a monolith.
75% of Palestinians support the October 7th massacre. Also, 75% want Israel erased completely.
https://jcpa.org/a-new-poll-of-pales...
De-nazification of Palestinians is mandatory for survival of my people. Israeli Jews are no longer asleep to this reality, and neither am I.
Vice president Harris says the U.S. will not support redrawing the borders of Gaza.
Too bad. It’s already happened. Gaza City is Netanyahu’s land on which to settle his most right wing religious nuts. They just haven’t announced it yet.
TheMostRad wrote:Howdy, fellow Jew here, and what the actual hell dawg.
Sick stuff you're describing there, for sure. Even if we take your descriptions at face value,
I'm not your dawg, and my descriptions are based on fact.
I can't see where the 2 wrongs end up making a right here.No idea where you got the notion that I'm proposing a second "wrong". De-nazification of Palestinians is not a "wrong".
No culture or populace is a monolith.75% of Palestinians support the October 7th massacre. Also, 75% want Israel erased completely.
https://jcpa.org/a-new-poll-of-pales...De-nazification of Palestinians is mandatory for survival of my people. Israeli Jews are no longer asleep to this reality, and neither am I.
If you are going to list atrocities you should be fair and start at the beginning. This situation didn’t come to be in a vacuum. We act like 75 years is 1 Million. I don’t know much but I do know that you can’t beat terrorism with terrorism.
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