NFL 2023: The preseason / predraft thread

*Legion* wrote:

Maybe the idea is that they just try to be as competitive as possible with Carr and their current roster, eat those 2 years, and then come 2025 they'll have a decent cap again with Carr still under contract for 2 more years. That would be a decent way of doing it.

That's probably how the Saints are justifying it internally.

The reality is, the Saints absolutely had to upgrade their QB room (they managed only 7 wins in the crappy NFC South with Dalton, Jameis and Taysom Hill) and they didn't have any way to move up in the draft. Remember, they sent their 1st round pick this year (which would have been 10th overall, woof) to the Eagles last year so they could draft Chris Olave (decent) and Trevor Penning (not decent). The Saints pick 29th overall, and that's only because of the Sean Payton-to-Denver deal.

So, yeah, it's a panic move. Carr probably makes the Saints better (counterpoint: he's Dalton 2.0), but it probably doesn't move them into the top tier of NFC teams. Too bad, so sad.

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Maybe the idea is that they just try to be as competitive as possible with Carr and their current roster, eat those 2 years, and then come 2025 they'll have a decent cap again with Carr still under contract for 2 more years. That would be a decent way of doing it.

That's probably how the Saints are justifying it internally.

The reality is, the Saints absolutely had to upgrade their QB room (they managed only 7 wins in the crappy NFC South with Dalton, Jameis and Taysom Hill) and they didn't have any way to move up in the draft. Remember, they sent their 1st round pick this year (which would have been 10th overall, woof) to the Eagles last year so they could draft Chris Olave (decent) and Trevor Penning (not decent). The Saints pick 29th overall, and that's only because of the Sean Payton-to-Denver deal.

So, yeah, it's a panic move. Carr probably makes the Saints better (counterpoint: he's Dalton 2.0), but it probably doesn't move them into the top tier of NFC teams. Too bad, so sad.

It's hoping to be the 2011 Giants; win a bad division, get hot in the playoffs. The odds of it happening aren't exactly great, but, hey, you get in, something can happen, right?

Carr's contract is very heavily backloaded because of the Saints' cap situation. I'm gonna be surprised if he actually collects the not guaranteed $50mm in 2026.

and Taysom Hill

That's their own stupid fault and they should eat every dollar of that dumb contract

Stele wrote:
and Taysom Hill

That's their own stupid fault and they should eat every dollar of that dumb contract

I was gonna say that they should have made it a condition of the Sean Payton deal that Denver had to trade for Taysom too.

But since they restructured that deal and turned a bunch of salary into new guaranteed bonus, they basically wouldn't save anything by trading him. The only money they can get out of is the unguaranteed $10m salaries in 2024 and 2025. They'll cut him before one of those seasons, probably 2025. At best, they're going to have paid Hill about $42m out of a potential $62m in total.

They've paid $32.7m so far to get a grand total of 2265 passing yards, 1758 rushing yards, and 465 receiving yards, spread over 6 years.

*Legion* wrote:

They've paid $32.7m so far to get a grand total of 2265 passing yards, 1758 rushing yards, and 465 receiving yards, spread over 6 years.

It could have been worse: Peter King (of all people) makes the case that in the case of Carson Wentz, "no player in NFL history has cost so much and delivered so little." Ouch.

Seahawks are keeping Geno Smith, with a new 3-year, $105m contract.

Heavily front-loaded, as he's supposedly getting $52m of it in year 1.

Sounds like they're setting themselves up to be competitive in years 2 and 3 of the deal, assuming last year wasn't just an aberration.

I hope this means we trade down and get Richardson.

Report: Aaron Rodgers spoke to Jets on Monday

Just after midnight, former ESPN host Trey Wingo dropped this nugget on Twitter: “Per sources. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets had conversations today. While nothing is imminent Rodgers is open to the idea of going to NY.”

Open to the idea huh? *starts packing Rodgers bags for him* Just take everything.

Paleocon wrote:

Yup. Which is why the Ravens can't afford to put Lamar on the non-exclusive tag.

Well, we're gonna get to test your theory, because the Ravens just tagged Lamar with the non-exclusive tag.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/vtrwuKj.jpg)

Well, that makes it interesting. Who's got loads of cap space . . . the Texans, Raiders, maybe Patriots for Bill? Perhaps the Packers trade away Qaaron and make a play for Lamar?

Ah, let the chaos begin.

I don't believe Lamar is going anywhere. I think the market for him is a lot softer than he expects, based largely on his inability to stay on the field over the past 2 years. Nobody wants to pay $230m guaranteed just to start Tyrod Taylor or Nick Foles or Jarrett Stidham or insert-whatever-QB2-here by the time you reach the playoffs.

Full list of franchise tagged players:

- DT Daron Payne (Commanders)
- RB Tony Pollard (Cowboys)
- RB Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
- TE Evan Engram (Jaguars)
- QB Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- RB Saquon Barkley (Giants)

No surprises here. Payne and Engram both seem destined to long-term deals. Engram in particular I know had a breakout year last season, and neither side was very interested in him leaving. I expect they'll just sit tight and let Dalton Schultz set the TE market, then they'll base Engram's deal off of that in turn.

The running back tagging is a little surprising, but I did see someone somewhere point out that the running back market has stagnated to the point where the franchise tag numbers actually make sense. Of course, if the tagging teams throw big deals at these guys and un-stagnate the RB market, then that value proposition changes.

Daniel Jones signing a 4-year, $160 million deal to stay a Giant, with an additional $35m available as incentives.

$40m a year for Daniel Jones..... ehhhh. Will have to wait and see what the guarantees are, and how much of that is just padded salary in the final year.

Dak signed for 4 years, $160 mil two years ago, with $126m of that guaranteed. Danny's guarantees should be significantly less.

*Legion* wrote:

Daniel Jones signing a 4-year, $160 million deal to stay a Giant, with an additional $35m available as incentives.

$40m a year for Daniel Jones..... ehhhh. Will have to wait and see what the guarantees are, and how much of that is just padded salary in the final year.

Dak signed for 4 years, $160 mil two years ago, with $126m of that guaranteed. Danny's guarantees better be significantly less.

Edited for you,

Love,

A Giants fan

*Legion* wrote:

I don't believe Lamar is going anywhere. I think the market for him is a lot softer than he expects, based largely on his inability to stay on the field over the past 2 years. Nobody wants to pay $230m guaranteed just to start Tyrod Taylor or Nick Foles or Jarrett Stidham or insert-whatever-QB2-here by the time you reach the playoffs.

I think that is the narrative, but the reality is that any player who had Steve Saunders as a strength and conditioning coach was lucky to be healthy for 12 games a year.

2021 worst injury "luck" of any team in 20 years

2022 no better

Players and former players attribute injuries to angel of death Steve Saunders

*Legion* wrote:

$40m a year for Daniel Jones..... ehhhh.

Eh, that's about what the starting QB market is these days. Carr's new deal is close to that amount. Lots of guys (Rodgers, Wilson, Kyler, Watson) are making significantly more than 40.

Just wait till Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, Hurts and Tua get their second deals.

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

$40m a year for Daniel Jones..... ehhhh.

Eh, that's about what the starting QB market is these days. Carr's new deal is close to that amount. Lots of guys (Rodgers, Wilson, Kyler, Watson) are making significantly more than 40.

Just wait till Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, Hurts and Tua get their second deals.

Geno got an average of $35 million. Sure, some of it's fake funny money, but have no doubt the same applies to Danny *blech* Dimes. Still the worst nickname out there, right?

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

$40m a year for Daniel Jones..... ehhhh.

Eh, that's about what the starting QB market is these days. Carr's new deal is close to that amount. Lots of guys (Rodgers, Wilson, Kyler, Watson) are making significantly more than 40.

Just wait till Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, Hurts and Tua get their second deals.

Geno got an average of $35 million. Sure, some of it's fake funny money, but have no doubt the same applies to Danny *blech* Dimes. Still the worst nickname out there, right?

Crypto?

*Legion* wrote:

Daniel Jones signing a 4-year, $160 million deal to stay a Giant, with an additional $35m available as incentives.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqpZxunaIAAd4U2?format=jpg&name=small)

Prederick wrote:

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqpZxunaIAAd4U2?format=jpg&name=small)

I agree.

I think the decisions to offer Jones a 4-year contract extension and to franchise tag Barkley are what most people expected (and what most Giants fans wanted).

I haven't see the details but I'd be astonished if Jones was guaranteed much more than £30m per year. His scoring last year - 15 passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs - isn't quite good enough (though he had a very good completion percentage).

They now need to use some of the cash saved on Jones and Barkely to upgrade the receiving the corps, and firm up the O-line. And if there's any change left, perhaps add another piece to the secondary.

And a linebacker!

whispa wrote:

And a linebacker!

... and a linebacker.

By the way, Prederick, the facial 'expression' in that photo is fantastic! It. Says. It. All.

Is it your dog? And can I use the photo here when the need arises? It really is perfect.

I suppose it is possible that this just a straight play to let Lamar shop the market, but the history of the NFL owners has me deeply skeptical at how straight it is. This is a cartel and (with few exceptions) a very disciplined one at that. It would surprise me if, in ten years or so, we do not find out that some seriously collusive crap is currently in play with Goodell promising all manner of repercussions to any owner that offers Lamar a contract that resets the market above what Haslam gave Watson. Every owner is on notice. Touch this with anything more than a pro forma, lowball offer and we're going to find reasons to suspend half your players or pull Boger out of retirement just to call all your home games.

It sure feels shady. There's a unanimous MVP out there. If you weren't one of the final 8 teams in the playoffs, that's an upgrade 100%. And even a couple of those teams... yikes. Then suddenly there are multiple teams announcing they have no interest yesterday. What the hell?

We see that when some team is rumored to be interested or has talked about a player before. But a group of teams all agreeing they don't want an MVP QB and announcing it, never seen that.

Stele wrote:

It sure feels shady. There's a unanimous MVP out there. If you weren't one of the final 8 teams in the playoffs, that's an upgrade 100%. And even a couple of those teams... yikes. Then suddenly there are multiple teams announcing they have no interest yesterday. What the hell?

We see that when some team is rumored to be interested or has talked about a player before. But a group of teams all agreeing they don't want an MVP QB and announcing it, never seen that.

Seriously.

What is really unsurprising is how a certain kind of NFL fan screams constantly about how officiating is all fixed and we are being fed a "script", but then swears on a stack of bibles that the owners are on the level and aren't colluding about something that directly affects their bottom lines.

edit: I was just talking with a fan of the Commanders who says he has a new reason to hate the Ravens.

there is a 100% chance that Bischiotti and Goodell colluded with the owners to NOT offer Lamar a market resetting contract.  All Snyder has to do is say "I have the receipts" and the owners will never, ever force him to sell.

I don't think you need some conspiracy from Darth Roger here; I have no doubt other teams have asked how much Lamar is asking for, and it's not collusion to answer. It's a number the Ravens don't want to meet, and, if you're another team, it's that plus two first-round picks, and all for a guy who's played only 12 games the last couple years and missed the playoff game last year. I don't need some kind of pressure from above to not want to possibly saddle my cap for the next five years for a guy who's played less than 75% of the games the last two years.

Plus,. he's not a "unanimous MVP". He WAS the unanimous MVP, four years ago. You don't pay for past performance, you pay for what you think you're going to get, and, based on his recent injury history, is anyone shocked the Ravens and other teams don't want to hand out the contract he wants?

And, yeah, I have no doubt the owners have talked about pushing back on guaranteed contracts, and it's undoubtedly collusion on some level, but this is not the hill to die on for that argument; I wouldn't want the Bucs to pursue him even if they had the cap space because I doubt his ability to stay on the field at this point.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I don't think you need some conspiracy from Darth Roger here; I have no doubt other teams have asked how much Lamar is asking for, and it's not collusion to answer. It's a number the Ravens don't want to meet, and, if you're another team, it's that plus two first-round picks, and all for a guy who's played only 12 games the last couple years and missed the playoff game last year. I don't need some kind of pressure from above to not want to possibly saddle my cap for the next five years for a guy who's played less than 75% of the games the last two years.

Plus,. he's not a "unanimous MVP". He WAS the unanimous MVP, four years ago. You don't pay for past performance, you pay for what you think you're going to get, and, based on his recent injury history, is anyone shocked the Ravens and other teams don't want to hand out the contract he wants?

And, yeah, I have no doubt the owners have talked about pushing back on guaranteed contracts, and it's undoubtedly collusion on some level, but this is not the hill to die on for that argument; I wouldn't want the Bucs to pursue him even if they had the cap space because I doubt his ability to stay on the field at this point.

Again, considering how Steve Saunders sabotaged the conditioning program and stacked the IR roster, I don't think you can really put that on Lamar. That f*cker really was the angel of death. Ronnie Stanley was out for two full years. That offensive line, secondary, running back room, and WR corps was torn to meat.

Lamar caught sh*t for "not participating in his rehab", despite showing up to all of his sessions. Turns out he was preserving his career.

I agree, MilkmanDanimal, that the lack of suitors for Lamar Jackson can be explained without recourse to a conspiracy theory: those suitors simply decided that his price is too high.

Of course, (a healthy) Lamar Jackson would likely represent an upgrade at QB for several teams, but the 'cost to change' has to be right.

I do wonder whether Lamar's decision not to use an agent had lead to him overestimating his market value. Sometimes, just sometimes, it's worth paying someone who's going to disagree with you...