NFL 2023: The preseason / predraft thread

Cam Newtons, once again ready to #šhïñëTHRŪthëŠHÄDĒ, will be throwing at Auburn's Pro Day, hoping to catch the attention of teams.

*Legion* wrote:

Cam Newtons, once again ready to #šhïñëTHRŪthëŠHÄDĒ, will be throwing at Auburn's Pro Day, hoping to catch the attention of teams.

USFL teams or XFL teams?

Pink Stripes wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Cam Newtons, once again ready to #šhïñëTHRŪthëŠHÄDĒ, will be throwing at Auburn's Pro Day, hoping to catch the attention of teams.

USFL teams or XFL teams?

The Jets.

jowner wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Cam Newtons, once again ready to #šhïñëTHRŪthëŠHÄDĒ, will be throwing at Auburn's Pro Day, hoping to catch the attention of teams.

USFL teams or XFL teams?

The Jets.

Oh, that must mean Qaron is sticking with the Packers then.

Pink Stripes wrote:
jowner wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Cam Newtons, once again ready to #šhïñëTHRŪthëŠHÄDĒ, will be throwing at Auburn's Pro Day, hoping to catch the attention of teams.

USFL teams or XFL teams?

The Jets.

Oh, that must mean Qaron is sticking with the Packers then.

No no.

MVP vs MVP camp battle for the starting job.

*Legion* wrote:

Cam Newtons

Dude.

Btw, the guy catching passes in the video is Caylin Newton, Cam's little brother, formerly at W&M (GO TRIBE). I'm hoping he gets to take part in Auburn's pro day (with Cam chucking it to him) because no one's coming to W&M's pro day (assuming they even have one).

Lamar Jackson, who definitely doesn't need an agent, has a representative reaching out to teams on his behalf. Representative, you see. Not an agent.

Of course, the problem is, this non-certified representative reaching out to teams is a violation of NFLPA rules.

*Legion* wrote:

Lamar Jackson, who definitely doesn't need an agent, has a representative . Representative, you see. Not an agent.

Of course, the problem is, this non-certified representative reaching out to teams is a violation of NFLPA rules.

A" representative". Isn't his 'Old Dear' advising him on his contract negotiations?

in any case, I do wonder whether Lamar Jackson might be in a better position now had he hired an NFLPA-approved agent. Sometimes in life it is worth paying for professional advice in addition to listening to family and friends... That 3% agents' commission might be the worst money he never spent.

detroit20 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Lamar Jackson, who definitely doesn't need an agent, has a representative . Representative, you see. Not an agent.

Of course, the problem is, this non-certified representative reaching out to teams is a violation of NFLPA rules.

A" representative". Isn't his 'Old Dear' advising him on his contract negotiations?

in any case, I do wonder whether Lamar Jackson might be in a better position now had he hired an NFLPA-approved agent. Sometimes in life it is worth paying for professional advice in addition to listening to family and friends... That 3% agents' commission might be the worst money he never spent.

This is where I am at the moment.

If nothing else, he clearly finds himself losing the battle of messaging. The offer he got was some $133m in guarantees with all the rest being some form of phoney baloney contingency, which, tbh is pretty insulting given that it is marginally more than the Cards gave Murray and nearly $100m less than Watson got. And yet the pundits all seem to be calling this "the second best offer in the NFL". Had he had an agent, the messaging would all be about getting a realistic offer on the table. And with one, I think they very well might have settled in somewhere in the $185m-200 range. Still lower than Watson, but more realistic for a next man up star QB contract.

All of this will look carry some really bad optics when Burrow and Herbert both end up with deals that make the Watson contract look normal.

Lamar has been so fixated on getting the biggest deal that he has been blind to how much money he has hemorrhaged in opportunity cost along the way.

Lamar won MVP in 2019. The next two seasons, he played for $1.5m and $1.8m.

The $1.5m in 2020 was unavoidable, because it was year 3, and a rookie contract player is not eligible for an extension until after their 3rd year.

But no agent on earth would have let Lamar play for $1.8m the following year.

Imagine if Lamar had signed a 4yr, $40m/yr deal like Dak Prescott did in the 2021 offseason. A deal that Lamar absolutely would not have been satisfied with. But his earnings would have been something like:

2021: $30m
2022: $38m
2023: $45m
2024: $47m
2025: Free agency - next contract opportunity

Here's what Lamar has done:

2021: $1.8m
2022: $23m (5th year option value)
2023: $32.4m (currently - franchise tender)
2024: ?
2025: ?

You see how big the gap is. Lamar needs a new contract at a staggering value just to have a prayer of breaking even. And even then, he might not break even once you factor in the value of the first scenario reaching free agency a second time much earlier, in 2025 instead of 2027 or 2028.

And that's with us being super conservative by giving him the Dak extension. Lamar could have beaten that in his sleep. Josh Allen signed in the same offseason for $43m/yr. Mahomes set the top end at $45m/yr the year before. Any value below $45m/yr for Lamar in 2021 is basically a gimme.

Agents know this. They understand how wasting years of your earnings potential puts you in a hole that the big contract won't dig you out of. They understand that "get paid now, so you can get paid again earlier" comes out WAY ahead over "drag your heels for years to get that last 10-15% of contract value you want".

I definitely don't disagree with that either. Folks enjoyed his generosity playing on the fifth year option, but a decent agent would have told him to hold out.

Paleocon wrote:

This is where I am at the moment.

If nothing else, he clearly finds himself losing the battle of messaging. The offer he got was some $133m in guarantees with all the rest being some form of phoney baloney contingency, which, tbh is pretty insulting given that it is marginally more than the Cards gave Murray and nearly $100m less than Watson got. And yet the pundits all seem to be calling this "the second best offer in the NFL"...

But, as I understand it, that 'Guaranteed At Signing' $133m was, at the time, the second best 'Guaranteed At Signing' offer in the NFL.

Watson, of course, has the best offer/contract - £250m.
Russell Wilson's $124m is second best.
Then come Murray and Rodgers at $103m an $101m respectively... Guaranteed At Signing.

As for $185-200m guaranteed. Perhaps? For a Lamar Jackson who completed the last two seasons...

Does guaranteed money for QBs actually matter?

It's not like they are RBs where you are the team favorite one year and cut the next. See Cowboys - Elliott and or Chargers and Ekeler forcing his way to get paid because he knows there's a window.

jowner wrote:

Does guaranteed money for QBs actually matter?

At those amounts? Sure. It's money that changes a family for generations.

IMAGE(https://www.thedrawplay.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023-03-22-LamarJackson.png)

Enix wrote:
jowner wrote:

Does guaranteed money for QBs actually matter?

At those amounts? Sure. It's money that changes a family for generations.

No I mean in the sense that QBs get paid regardless and continue to get signed*.

Jimmy's recent resume is essentially getting injured. He still found a team and apparently free sex for life according to google.

Added a * for Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick.

The thing is, guarantees less than the full amount of the contract can still pretty much lock teams in.

The Rams are stuck with Matt Stafford. His deal for $160 million had only $60 of that fully guaranteed at signing. But the prorated signing bonus and recently triggered roster bonus are enough that the Rams don't have an "out" this year, and really don't have one next year either.

Carson Wentz signed that extension in Philly, and teams hot-potato'd that contract through two trades before it got past enough guarantees to terminate.

If the Cardinals wanted to get out of Kyler Murray's contract, it would be hell. With the way guarantees are staggered, it doesn't seem very viable before 2027. Spotrac lists 2028 as the "potential out" year. I think they could do it in 2026 at the cost of not fielding a meaningful team that year.

Even a non-fully-guaranteed Lamar contract would almost certainly mean 3 or 4 years where the team can't realistically do anything other than have Lamar at QB.

jowner wrote:

Added a * for Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick.

One of these things is not like the other . . .

Very apples and oranges here; Kaepernick's story is sadly well-known, but Cam wasn't blacklisted because he became a political hot potato. Cam played a physical as hell game, and just got broken in half as he got older, and who'd want him even for the veteran minimum these days? You could just have a late-round pick or UDFA and hope to get lucky, but with Cam you know exactly what you're going to get.

Jets sign Mecole Hardman, trade Elijah Moore to the Browns.

Corey Davis expected to be traded or released soon. Someone's gotta vacate a spot for Cobb.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
jowner wrote:

Added a * for Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick.

One of these things is not like the other . . .

Very apples and oranges here; Kaepernick's story is sadly well-known, but Cam wasn't blacklisted because he became a political hot potato. Cam played a physical as hell game, and just got broken in half as he got older, and who'd want him even for the veteran minimum these days? You could just have a late-round pick or UDFA and hope to get lucky, but with Cam you know exactly what you're going to get.

Oh ya totally different situations. They were just the only 2 recent QBs who came to mind that were looking for jobs and couldn't get one.

If you are a sub 30 year old starting QB level I'd be less worried about the guaranteed money and more so how much of that is just front loaded and hitting my bank ASAP.

Post 30 and collecting injuries? Ya your career might come to an abrupt Cam end. Chase that guarantee contract.

Jimmy G offered sex for life from brothel. Photos are probably NSFW, and, well, the headline pretty much says it all.

Oh sure, it's all free sex and "take us to the Super Bowl, stud!" right now.

But the Tuesday after a Week 9 loss, it's all, "How did you not see Davante open, Jimmy?" "Why did you throw the ball to that linebacker, Jimmy?" "I have a headache from watching the Raiders lose 3 of the last 4, Jimmy."

Best case scenario, he starts the season off hot and wins the first 3, tears an Achilles in Week 4, then gets to visit the redhead in the nurse's outfit for "treatment" the rest of the season.

*Legion* wrote:

Oh sure, it's all free sex and "take us to the Super Bowl, stud!" right now.

But the Tuesday after a Week 9 loss, it's all, "How did you not see Davante open, Jimmy?" "Why did you throw the ball to that linebacker, Jimmy?" "I have a headache from watching the Raiders lose 3 of the last 4, Jimmy."

Best case scenario, he starts the season off hot and wins the first 3, tears an Achilles in Week 4, then gets to visit the redhead in the nurse's outfit for "treatment" the rest of the season.

False. The best case scenario is he misses two games with injury, and goes 6-9.

This is my surprised face.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Jimmy G offered sex for life from brothel. Photos are probably NSFW, and, well, the headline pretty much says it all.

I like this story better if the offer shows up after he has already visited the brothel a couple times.

Top_Shelf wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Jimmy G offered sex for life from brothel. Photos are probably NSFW, and, well, the headline pretty much says it all.

I like this story better if the offer shows up after he has already visited the brothel a couple times.

Maybe he has!

tboon wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Jimmy G offered sex for life from brothel. Photos are probably NSFW, and, well, the headline pretty much says it all.

I like this story better if the offer shows up after he has already visited the brothel a couple times.

Maybe he has!

When Garoppolo was joining the Raiders, he was supposed to sign and have an introductory press conference that Thursday, but it was postponed a day to Friday, with no explanation.

I'm sure he was using that extra time to scope out the city's museums and cultural centers...

*Legion* wrote:
tboon wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Jimmy G offered sex for life from brothel. Photos are probably NSFW, and, well, the headline pretty much says it all.

I like this story better if the offer shows up after he has already visited the brothel a couple times.

Maybe he has!

When Garoppolo was joining the Raiders, he was supposed to sign and have an introductory press conference that Thursday, but it was postponed a day to Friday, with no explanation.

I'm sure he was using that extra time to scope out the city's museums and cultural centers...

It's Vegas; you can make a legitimate argument brothels are that city's museums and cultural centers.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

you can make a legitimate argument brothels are that city's museums

Ah, you prefer the establishments with, shall we say, experienced veterans.

Bryce Young declined to be weighed at his Pro Day.

He weighed in at 204 pounds at the Combine, but obviously there's suspicion that he worked to pack on pounds for the Combine weigh-in that he wouldn't be able to sustain as a playing weight. Avoiding the scales at his Pro Day certainly elevates those suspicions.

After how rough last season was for Tua, who Bryce makes look downright thick by comparison, it's definitely a huge question mark that isn't going away.

There were questions about Devonta Smith's size coming into the draft, but that didn't bother me too much, given that he was gonna be spending his time getting tackled by DBs that outweighed him by "only" 20-30 pounds. Bryce Young is going to get tackled by guys that outweigh him by a legitimate 3 digits.