NFL 2023: The preseason / predraft thread

*Legion* wrote:

Things continue to be weird in Eagles land, as they make yet another about-face, and decide to keep Darius Slay, after having told him he would be released. The two sides worked out a restructure.

Meanwhile, C.J. Gardner-Johnson is still sitting out there, and isn't too thrilled about it. Keeping Slay most likely eats up the cap that would have been needed to sign Gardner-Johnson.

So, maybe 5 new starters on the Eagles D instead of 7. Not quite as extreme, but still kinda interesting how they've prioritized keeping the edges of the defense (edge rushers and cornerbacks), while the middle of the field (interior D-line, linebackers, safeties) has taken the losses.

I guess they figure they can get quality interior help in the draft. Weird considering how all the reports I have seen seem to indicated that Edge and CB are two areas where this draft is super fat.

Parris Campbell signs with the Giants.

Any move by the Giants to add talent to that group is a good thing, though they shouldn't sit pat with just this one.

Good move by Campbell though. He'll get far more opportunity in that WR group than he would almost anywhere else.

*Legion* wrote:

What would it have cost to keep Orlando Brown? It couldn't be much more than that, and Brown is a significantly better player.

The answer, it turns out, is "less than you think".

Brown signed with the Cincinnati Bengals for 4 years... $64 million.

$16m/year for Brown, when Jawaan Taylor fetched $20m/yr.

What a steal for Cincinnati.

*Legion* wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

What would it have cost to keep Orlando Brown? It couldn't be much more than that, and Brown is a significantly better player.

The answer, it turns out, is "less than you think".

Brown signed with the Cincinnati Bengals for 4 years... $64 million.

$16m/year for Brown, when Jawaan Taylor fetched $20m/yr.

What a steal for Cincinnati.

Sort of.

Brown got $31M at signing and $42M over the first two years. I have yet to see the contract details, but I would be willing to bet that the last two years of that contract are about as likely to be honored as a loan repayment agreement with Donald Trump's signature on it. This looks like a two year $21M/year rental.

Gardner Minshew is back in the AFC South... with the Colts.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Warrant issued for potential first overall draft pick Jalen Carter for reckless driving and racing. A teammate and staffer died in a crash, and it's alleged Carter was racing them at the time, which he denied to police at the time.

Alexa, how do I not learn from Henry Ruggs and then piss away a giant-ass pile of money?

What would ever make these kids think they can do whatever they want without facing any serious consequences?

billt721 wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Warrant issued for potential first overall draft pick Jalen Carter for reckless driving and racing. A teammate and staffer died in a crash, and it's alleged Carter was racing them at the time, which he denied to police at the time.

Alexa, how do I not learn from Henry Ruggs and then piss away a giant-ass pile of money?

What would ever make these kids think they can do whatever they want without facing any serious consequences?

Yeah, and apparently he looked like feces at his pro day earlier. Talk about someone working hard to tank his draft stock.

So... I think it's actually happening.

Sale of Commanders believed to be "imminent", Snyders have cleared out of the facility

Per multiple sources, Dan and Tanya Snyder have cleared out of the team’s facility in advance of the sale of the team. As one source explained it, they left in late December.

We’re also told that, within the building, the word being used regarding a potential sale is “imminent.” Multiple sources said that a sale could be approved and announced as soon as the upcoming league meetings in Arizona.

No more Snyders of Landover?

Oddsmakers have Josh Harris of Apollo (puke) in the lead, followed by another set of private equity guys, Todd Boehly (another private equity guy) and then Bezos.

Harris already owns the Sixers, Devils and...Crystal Palace?

GODSPEED TO THE URBANSLAYER

He's an Urban Legend.

If the Bengals thought they were going to slide Jonah Williams to the right side after signing Orlando Brown, well, Jonah has other ideas. He's requested a trade.

Williams is an interesting case. Last year was the worst of his career, but he was pretty decent the two seasons before. He clearly wants to stay at left tackle for his contract year.

Might make sense for a team like Tampa, who right now has nobody of consequence to play left tackle (unless they move Wirfs to the left side, and create a hole on the right side).

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/Za2RFx4.jpg)

You pay an agent 3% to tell you not to do things like this.

I mean, I am here for guaranteed player contracts all day, every day. And I take Dominque Foxworth's point about how agents have a vested interest in maintaining relationships with teams, not the dozens of players who will cycle out of the league.

I want Lamar to get paid.

I also wonder if he's going to end up like Kaepernick as the owners really do appear to be circling the wagons (to use an outdated metaphor).

It could be interesting if everyone exhibited some solidarity and started saying, "I won't sign for anything other than what you're willing to guarantee. So no, I don't want your fake 5yr, $100mm contract with 3yrs/$60mm guaranteed. I'll just take the $3yrs/$60mm thanks."

Top_Shelf wrote:

So no, I don't want your fake 5yr, $100mm contract with 3yrs/$60mm guaranteed. I'll just take the $3yrs/$60mm thanks."

Here's the thing, though. Players (at least the ones that actually perform well) often end up earning all that so-called "fake" money.

Remember when Jimmy Garoppolo got a 5 year, $137.5 million contract after playing 6 games as a 49er?

That contract doesn't happen in a world with guaranteed contracts. Nothing close to it.

The upside to non-guaranteed contracts is that you get paid sooner. Teams will throw big speculative contracts at players who have only just started to prove their worth, because they're not forever stuck with it. And sure, if the player doesn't perform, they end up losing out. But when the player does perform, they take home that money, and they can end up coming out way ahead, like Jimmy who took home every penny of that $137.5m. And in a league where careers can be very short, getting paid sooner is a big deal.

In a world with guaranteed contracts, teams suddenly become a lot more risk averse. More big money gets thrown at sure thing players, and less at speculative breakout players. Players have to "prove it" for longer before that big offer makes it to the table, and so fewer players ever see them. The rich players get richer, and the poor players get poorer.

Any player who thinks guaranteed contracts is a panacea - especially in a sport with a hard salary cap - has not thought about what happens when they hit their first true free agency period, and fewer teams are buyers because they're stuck with unproductive players on their cap that they can't get rid of. Imagine becoming a breakout young QB, like a Jalen Hurts, and struggling to get paid because a bunch of Carson Wentzes are eating up salary caps across the league.

The talk about guaranteed contracts reminds me of when the union was trying to get rid of the salary cap, without fully thinking through exactly what the ramifications of that would be (and then hastily backtracking once those ramifications became clear). Guaranteed contracts will impact roster building in ways that the big ticket players don't want to say out loud, because the picture is a lot less rosy for the rest of the union membership.

The surest sign that the NFL will never lose it's dominance in the US is how pretty much everyone carries water for the owners, not the players. Which, thinking about it, kinda makes some sense. The average American male is 50lbs overweight and has a better chance of lucking into wealth than they do getting fit and being an athlete.

Uh yeah….the owners are white men, the majority of fans are white men and the majority of players are black men.

*Legion* wrote:

Meanwhile, C.J. Gardner-Johnson is still sitting out there, and isn't too thrilled about it. Keeping Slay most likely eats up the cap that would have been needed to sign Gardner-Johnson.

He's not sitting out there anymore, he signed with the Lions.

billt721 wrote:

The surest sign that the NFL will never lose it's dominance in the US is how pretty much everyone carries water for the owners, not the players.

It's weird to see people spin guaranteed contracts as a players vs. owners thing.

It doesn't net players collectively any additional money at all. Player payrolls are still 48% of league revenues, as negotiated in collective bargaining, period. Guaranteed contracts don't move that number at all. Players as a group don't make an extra cent. Owners don't spend an extra cent.

All we are talking about is established players getting to keep getting paid at a certain level regardless of their level of performance, and ignoring what that means for the rest of the player labor force. Ever notice how the players making noise about guaranteed salaries are the ones already collecting a disproportionate amount of that 48%? How it's never the second string center, or the 7th round player who has wildly exceeded expectations and looking for his first actual payday?

Really appreciate your write up on this, Legion. I hadn't thought of it from that lens.

I don't know for sure what I think. I do want the players to get more and I'm increasingly against the salary cap, although I don't see how that won't hurt the overall product and turn it into MLB or club soccer awfulness.

Top_Shelf wrote:

I do want the players to get more

Me too. I don't think the NFLPA has the stomach for the fight that it would take to get there, but if they did, I would strongly support their effort to move past that 48% split and up over the 50% mark. I know they have put a 55% split on the table before, though probably as nothing more than an opening position to be talked down from. But I would absolutely support the players getting a 55% split.

Pink Stripes wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Meanwhile, C.J. Gardner-Johnson is still sitting out there, and isn't too thrilled about it. Keeping Slay most likely eats up the cap that would have been needed to sign Gardner-Johnson.

He's not sitting out there anymore, he signed with the Lions.

For just a 1-year deal worth "up to" $8 million. He doesn't seem too happy with how things went, based on his vague tweeting (and tweet deleting). Weird. Seems like there should have been more of a market for him.

There are a few ways players could get more from the NFL without messing with the salary caps or contracts. Better pension with greater contributions from the league and owners..some sort of pool that gets distributed at the end of the season based on some measure that comes from the total all teams are under the cap. Like if you played X snaps you get Y dollars.

TheGameguru wrote:

Better pension with greater contributions from the league and owners..some sort of pool that gets distributed at the end of the season based on some measure that comes from the total all teams are under the cap. Like if you played X snaps you get Y dollars.

True, and that is one of the things the union fought for in the previous round of collective bargaining. If I recall right, significantly more players became eligible for the pension, by lowering the career length requirements for eligibility. And retired players saw a boost in benefits.

So, yeah, that's certainly a battleground where meaningful improvements can be made.

Speaking of money, ol' Roger is getting a new contract extension from the owners.

Last time, Goodell made some waves for supposedly wanting lifetime use of a private jet. That did not come to pass, but who knows about this time?

Roger better get what he can this time, because owners are seemingly looking at this as Roger's last hurrah, and want him to start preparing a successor. Commissioners, unlike owners, apparently aren't allowed to go much past their mid-60s.

Brandin Cooks got traded again! This time, to the Cowboys.

His 4th trade now ties him with Eric Dickerson for the most all-time.

Alright Jerruh, we're counting on you. When you're done with Cooks, you gotta trade him.

Also, annoyingly, this is a great move by Dallas. Cooks is a bit miscast as a WR1, but as a WR2 opposite someone like Lamb, he should be able to thrive. They've now legitimately replaced what they lost when they traded away Amari Cooper, and at a price they're willing to pay.

Good news, guys. Dolphins corner Xavien Howard does not have genital herpes.

I mean that is a relief to me for…undisclosed reasons.

Finally some Lamar Jackson news.