[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Have we fact checked that photo? I know a lot of misinformation specialists are dredging up photos of old conflicts and dressing them as new.

I assume part of the reason for the "operational pause" was to replace worn out crap with stuff they pulled out of warehouses, but who knows for certain if that is the case. In any event, I think it would be optimistic to assume the Russians have the capability to replace those barrels at all let alone in the field or in sufficiently forward deployed maintenance areas that would allow them to quickly redeploy them once serviced. I won't say that this is the end of the Russian strategy of massed artillery (they have a LOT of shells), but I think it is likely that the effectiveness of fire is likely to drop off precipitously right as they are getting into less favorable terrain.

Honestly, there is no technical reason why the Ukrainians shouldn't be able to achieve their strategic objectives and completely deny the Russians anything approaching victory conditions (notice I didn't say "win" which is a subjective term). The biggest threat to operational success is political. If the Russians succeed in subverting democratic governments with sh*t like getting Republicans elected or other white nationalists in power in Western Europe, the Ukrainians could be in for a rough, rough year.

fangblackbone wrote:

Have we fact checked that photo? I know a lot of misinformation specialists are dredging up photos of old conflicts and dressing them as new.

The original post, as far as I know, came from a Russian Telegram channel.

Working against the idea that this is misinformation is the fact that there are few 2S7s in service outside of Russia and the last time it was used in a conflict was by Russia in 2014 (in Donbas). Prior to that the Georgians used it against the Russians in 2008.

Ukraine has about about 90 2S7s so, theoretically, it could have blown one up for propaganda purposes and not have it matter because Soviet 203mm ammo is in short supply.

But working against that are open source intelligence wonks who have noted that satellite imagery has shown the Russians have withdrawn about 60 2S7s from storage at the 94th Arsenal in Omsk since April.

Further, there's also been intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers complaining about the inaccuracy of their artillery (increased inaccuracy is the first sign of worn barrels).

Of course that could just be from sh*tty training and spotting, but we absolutely know the Russians have been heavily using their arty for the past several months from direct reports and NASA FIRMS data.

Looks like the video link isn't working for Youtube shorts. Here is a short vid on Russian barrel life and the calculation.

Germany braces for ‘nightmare’ of Russia turning off gas for good

The German government’s tough stance towards Russia since the war in Ukraine began is coming under pressure at home, as worries about the resulting energy crisis and possible gas shortages intensify.

Until now, all mainstream parties from across the political spectrum had backed the strict sanctions imposed on Russia.

In recent weeks though, some German conservative leaders have voiced scepticism about the west’s strategy, as opinion polls indicate that around half of the German population thinks the sanctions are hurting Germany more than Russia.

Overall however, polls show that more than two-thirds of Germans still back sanctions, Reuters reports.

About half of German households rely on gas for heating, as does approximately a third of the country’s industrial energy consumption.

Germany recorded its first monthly trade deficit since 1991 in May, partly due to inflation running atabout 8%.

Michael Kretschmer, conservative leader of the eastern Saxony region, told Die Zeit newspaper in an interview printed on Thursday:

Our entire economic system is in danger of collapsing. If we are not careful, Germany could become deindustrialised.

If we realise that we cannot for now give up on Russian gas, then it is bitter but it is the reality, and we must act accordingly.

Concerns about government policy on Ukraine are particularly widespread in the former communist east, which has stronger ties to Moscow and stands to be more affected by the looming economic downturn as it is already worse off, Reuters reports.

Putin is, of course, banking on this and a possible recession. Well, that and his usual comrades in arms staying in or regaining power.

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Lavrov shows diplomatic clout in Africa

While Russia is isolated in the West for waging a war in Ukraine, the red carpet was laid out for Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his four-nation tour of Africa.

Mr Lavrov's visit showed that Russia still had the diplomatic muscle to challenge the West for the hearts and minds of African governments, as he visited Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo-Brazzaville.

Most African nations - including Nigeria and Kenya, the economic powerhouses of West Africa and East Africa respectively - voted in favour of a UN general assembly resolution in March, condemning Russian "aggression" and demanding its withdrawal from Ukraine.

However, nearly half of all abstentions - 17 - were from Africa.

Countries on this list included South Africa - which feels indebted to Moscow for its support in the fight against white-minority rule - and Uganda, which is set to assume the chairmanship of the Non-Aligned Movement, a global body formed during the Cold War by countries that wanted to avoid being caught up in the rivalry between Western powers and the communist block.

At a press conference with Mr Lavrov, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni reiterated his position of neutrality over the conflict in Ukraine.

"We don't believe in being enemies of somebody's enemy," he said.

What are these non-economic powerhouses going to do for RUS? And what happens when these places start facing grain and fertilizer shortages because of their buddy Putin's war? Are they going to keep rolling out the red carpet for an impotent military "power"?

I think the plan is they could help them circumvent some of the sanctions Russia faces, particularly on imports of tech and parts it needs to maintain or repair their military equipment, and to use their starving citizens as leverage to pressure other countries into accepting Russia's version of the conflict by falsely claiming that the food shortage is Ukraine's and NATO's fault rather than Russia's.

Got it. So, African country imports components needed for guidance systems and tank electronics, then gets them on up to RUS.

I can see that.

I mean, I think it's an atrocious strategy that's not going to work well and further indicates RUS inability to think strategically, but it's a way to try to keep dragging on the war instead of admitting defeat.

Move to Russia! We have cheap taxis and vodka!
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/statu...

Top_Shelf wrote:

Got it. So, African country imports components needed for guidance systems and tank electronics, then gets them on up to RUS.

I can see that.

I mean, I think it's an atrocious strategy that's not going to work well and further indicates RUS inability to think strategically, but it's a way to try to keep dragging on the war instead of admitting defeat.

Usually if that type of thing happens more than once, those African countries can get sanctioned too. I know in my tech export training, we have to know where the end use is (purpose and location) and avoidable ignorance is not an excuse.

maverickz wrote:

Move to Russia! We have cheap taxis and vodka!
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/statu...

Lets see...
"Traditional Values"
"No Cancel Culture!"
"Cheap Gas"
"Beautiful [underage] women!"

Wonder who this is ACTUALLY aimed at...

maverickz wrote:

Move to Russia! We have cheap taxis and vodka!
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/statu...

Move to Russia! Look at this to distract from the fact our army just posted videos of the castration, dismemberment, and execution of Ukrainian POWs, blew up a prison killing 40+ more Ukrainian POWs to prevent stories of the atrocities committed against them from getting out, and tried to blame it on Ukrainian shelling.

Move to Russia! We say we're fighting Nazis while exclusively showing pictures of blonde women who we go out of the way to tell you are Christian with "traditional values."

Move to Russia! Our economy can withstand thousands of sanctions. Completely unrelated, our production of passenger cars dropped by 97% in May to just 3,700 and our heavy truck production was down 40%.

imbiginjapan wrote:
maverickz wrote:

Move to Russia! We have cheap taxis and vodka!
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/statu...

Lets see...
"Traditional Values"
"No Cancel Culture!"
"Cheap Gas"
"Beautiful [underage] women!"

Wonder who this is ACTUALLY aimed at...

It's extra hilarious because if you can say anything about the Russian government, they are NOT interested in a "diversity of thought" but that phrase, much like "wokeness" and "cancel culture" no longer have any meaning beyond their use as a rhetorical cudgel.

I'm all about the folks that's aimed at moving to Russia.

Wait until they hear about Russia's gun laws.

The audience is every Christian nationalist you see in your neighborhood with a fish symbol, Real American sticker and Pray For America on their F-150 (real thing I saw today in my blue county).

And Samuel Alito and crew.

There is an infamous gun store in WNC that tries to go viral selling crazy, right wing, bumper stickers with the name of their store.

I saw a pick up truck with two of the stickers, one said "Russian Warship Go f*ck Yourself" ~Gun Store and the other "Ultra MAGA" ~ Gun Store.

I mean, I know the young dude driving the pickup could not offer a cogent thought about the war, and probably doesn't really understand where Ukraine and Russia are, but my poor head almost exploded seeing those stickers.

Hey, I bought a "Russian warship, go f*ck yourself" in Ukrainian shirt from St Javelin and wear it on bench press days (at home only, no need to get into things at the gym)!

imbiginjapan wrote:
maverickz wrote:

Move to Russia! We have cheap taxis and vodka!
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/statu...

Lets see...
"Traditional Values"
"No Cancel Culture!"
"Cheap Gas"
"Beautiful [underage] women!"

Wonder who this is ACTUALLY aimed at...

Yeah, they really seem to be leaning into the incel pedophile demographic. It occurs to me that if a couple hundred thousand Americans who found that sh*t attractive actually moved to Russia, it would leave America a much better place.

A thought occurred to me that this whole Putin invasion is just the Eastern Front in reverse.

The supposedly technologically superior military, led by a madman whose gambles had previously paid off but was a horrible strategist and military tactician, invades the "incompetent" opponents' territory despite protestations to the contrary, and proceeds to run out of steam as the invaded country absorbs early losses but sucks the invader into a morass of destruction and maintains their resolve while being backed by the wealthiest, most powerful nation(s) who also just happen to be democracies.

I hope Putin, as the sErIoUs student of history he claims to be, is beginning to appreciate the irony.

A number of Russia experts have made that observation as well as the one that the west fundamentally misread Putin by characterizing him as a genius chess player. He might think a few moves ahead but his calculations are more often than not wrong. It is better to think of him as a judoka who capitalizes on opportunities as they present themselves. He is less wise strategist and more cunning ambush predator.

Agreed.

Would add that his ambush predator game could have been stopped mich sooner if someone had stood up to him earlier.

I don’t think the guardian meant this article to encourage empathy with the Russian people, but after 20 years of Americans ignoring the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, that’s exactly the vibe I’m getting.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Agreed.

Would add that his ambush predator game could have been stopped mich sooner if someone had stood up to him earlier.

The reason he had such success is that he was going after places that either couldn't or wouldn't. Luckily, this time Russia had a woefully inaccurate assessment of Ukraine's ability and willingness to fight back, but then again, so did we. Even still, Russian strike teams did come very close to killing Zelenskyy in the first days of the invasion, which would have made this whole thing play out very differently.

Lazerpig and Perun are both on form today.

With all the hypersonic saber rattling from Putin, I thought it would be appropriate to remind folks that talk like that isn't harmless. This event happened over the weekend here in the Washington, DC area and had we been at a higher state of nuclear readiness, it is entirely possible it would have triggered a world ending event.

Yes, the UN Chief was talking about this:

Why the U.N. chief says we are 'one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation'

The world is now enduring greater stress than any time in recent decades, according to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. And while humanity has so far avoided "the suicidal mistake of nuclear conflict," he said, tensions are hitting new highs at a time when many lessons of the past seem forgotten.

"Today, humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation," the world's top diplomat said at a U.N. conference on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in New York City.

Prederick wrote:

Yes, the UN Chief was talking about this:

Why the U.N. chief says we are 'one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation'

The world is now enduring greater stress than any time in recent decades, according to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. And while humanity has so far avoided "the suicidal mistake of nuclear conflict," he said, tensions are hitting new highs at a time when many lessons of the past seem forgotten.

"Today, humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation," the world's top diplomat said at a U.N. conference on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in New York City.

Considering that this was possibly the most underreported story of last weekend.... yeah.