[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Prederick wrote:

There's a lot of chitter-chatter today about Russia apparently doing a very poor job planning this invasion. I want to believe, but I am very wary about getting way too "Yay Team Ukraine!" when getting any verified information about the state of the war is borderline impossible in any situation.

In the early 90s I had to study Russian doctrine for my intel analyst test. One of my instructors pretty much put it this way - the overall Russian strategy is [email protected]#k you we’ll just keep throwing bodies at you till your line breaks.

NHK: Report: Russian missile hits Japanese freighter in Black Sea:

A Japanese-owned cargo ship has been shelled in the Black Sea, south of Ukraine. One crewmember has been injured.

Reuters reports a Russian missile hit the ship's stern, causing the vessel to catch fire.

The Ukrainian defense ministry announced on its Facebook page that the Panama-registered freighter Namura Queen was bombarded in the Black Sea on Friday.

The vessel is owned by a shipping company based in Imabari City in the western Japanese prefecture of Ehime.

A company official says all the 20-member crew are Filipinos and one was wounded in the shoulder. The remaining 19 were reportedly unharmed.

Reuters quoted a Ukrainian shipping company as saying the vessel was on its way to load grain at the port of Odessa in southern Ukraine.

Not the first report of attacks against shipping in the Black Sea I've seen over the past 24 hours, but the first from a globally recognizable broadcaster from an affected country. If the Russians are targeting international cargo shipments and their crews, that just escalates matters even further.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/kKQ7U3y.png)

Y'know, I don't know the dude, don't know his politics, I'm only just learning about him.

But holy sh*t, I'd run through a wall for Zelenskyy.

Like, I'm trying to exercise a regular amount of distancing and caution, he is a politician in a war that is overflowing with propaganda, but dude hasn't hit a single wrong note.

Like, I don't think that it's always wrong for a country's leadership to flee when confronted by an overwhelming force. But the fact that dude is staying, and the way he's conducted himself is literally movie sh*t.

EDIT: Some of the videos coming out are just ridiculous.

ElectricPi wrote:

I think I heard that they are currently chairing the security council too, but I could have that wrong.

I saw a brief note of this as well somewhere in an article. It mentioned that it was a schedule thing which I took to mean that the 5 permanent nations rotate and it was Russia's turn to chair the meeting. Still utter bullsh*t as they should have stuck him in a corner facing the wall.

I am hesitant to forward this stuff on without verification, but some of the reports I am hearing is that logistically, the war isn't going as planned for the Russians and morale is low.

One anecdote I heard was of a Russian tank having suffered a non combat related mechanical breakdown. A Ukrainian motorist stopped and offered to drive the crew back to Russia, which they reportedly accepted, commenting that many of their comrades had either died or surrendered and they were thinking of giving up as well.

Putin cites the rise of far right movements as the reason why he thinks he has legitimate security concerns regarding NATO expansion.

Great. Maybe start with not supporting far right groups?

Paleocon wrote:

I am hesitant to forward this stuff on without verification, but some of the reports I am hearing is that logistically, the war isn't going as planned for the Russians and morale is low.

One anecdote I heard was of a Russian tank having suffered a non combat related mechanical breakdown. A Ukrainian motorist stopped and offered to drive the crew back to Russia, which they reportedly accepted, commenting that many of their comrades had either died or surrendered and they were thinking of giving up as well.

Prederick posted that video. Anyone translate?

Prederick wrote:

Some of the videos coming out are just ridiculous.

Top_Shelf wrote:

It's hard to know how the battle is actually going.

Found this blog that is tracking materiel, run by regular folks that are requiring confirmations for the numbers:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...

Don't know the trustworthiness.

The blogger is saying that he isn't posting anything that isn't verified (by what, who knows).

If these numbers are valid, then I guess the Ghost of Kyiv isn't a thing.

But holy hell, I'd definitely trade 10 T-64s for 7 T-80s and T-72s. And the number of captured Russian vehicles is insane.

Nevin73 wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

It's hard to know how the battle is actually going.

Found this blog that is tracking materiel, run by regular folks that are requiring confirmations for the numbers:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...

Don't know the trustworthiness.

The blogger is saying that he isn't posting anything that isn't verified (by what, who knows).

If these numbers are valid, then I guess the Ghost of Kyiv isn't a thing.

But holy hell, I'd definitely trade 10 T-64s for 7 T-80s and T-72s. And the number of captured Russian vehicles is insane.

The captured brigade level towed artillery is particularly interesting. How does that happen?

The truck ran out of gas?

Is it any surprise that a Kleptocracy would hollow out a military's supply chain. Officers/troops probably can't brazenly steal the mainline equipment, but those spare parts, reserve fuel barrels, MREs that are just sitting there in a store room.

Saw a video of a Russian tank crew looting a bodega for a couple of bags of food and at least according to Ukrainian sources, captured/surrendered troops are reporting they only had enough food for the first day.

This report from USA Today states that the Russians still don't have air superiority, so while the Ghost of Kyiv is probably just a legend, the reports of two transport planes full of Spetsnaz being downed and confirmed by the US speaks to just how badly things are going for Russia.

Every day the Ukrainian flag flies from that live shot of Maidan Square is another victory.

BBC Live Blog wrote:

Across tweets, TikToks and Facebook posts there is a growing body of evidence of the scale of setbacks suffered by the Russian army.

Prisoners are interrogated, some dazed from the shock of capture and death of comrades, mumbling that they never knew they were being sent to Ukraine. One young Russian sits with his head in his hands, hiding his face as local people shout abuse about President Putin. Another, asked if he has a message for his family, says, “I love you.”

Along with the growing number of videos of prisoners there is grislier stuff of charred corpses in burnt out vehicles. The toll of dead and captured is unclear but UK defence ministry estimates of hundreds of fatalities are likely to be true, particularly if reports about two Russian transport aircraft being shot down in the early hours of Saturday are confirmed. There could be many tens of prisoners, given the videos circulating.

The revelation of these losses back home could have serious consequences for Putin. There is a long legacy of protest by soldiers’ mothers, for example during the Afghan and Chechen wars. Hence reports that Russia began restricting access to Twitter and Facebook, perhaps to slow the spread of images and testimony.

jdzappa wrote:

In the early 90s I had to study Russian doctrine for my intel analyst test. One of my instructors pretty much put it this way - the overall Russian strategy is [email protected]#k you we’ll just keep throwing bodies at you till your line breaks.

@JackDetsch wrote:

New: Russia has sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine over the past 24 hours along "all three lines" of advance: senior U.S. defense official.

Putin has called up reserves for the fighting, official said.

Prederick wrote:

Y'know, I don't know the dude, don't know his politics, I'm only just learning about him.

But holy sh*t, I'd run through a wall for Zelenskyy.

Like, I'm trying to exercise a regular amount of distancing and caution, he is a politician in a war that is overflowing with propaganda, but dude hasn't hit a single wrong note.

Like, I don't think that it's always wrong for a country's leadership to flee when confronted by an overwhelming force. But the fact that dude is staying, and the way he's conducted himself is literally movie sh*t.

EDIT: Some of the videos coming out are just ridiculous.

I hope Jeremy Renner plays him in a movie.

WSJ is reporting that the first assault on Kyiv has failed and that it remains in Ukrainian hands. They also report widespread Russian use of ununiformed irregulars. These violate international laws and are not protected by the rules of warfare. I suspect there will be summary executions.

It appears that the first attack was mostly leading elements, and now the tanks are showing up in numbers.

Prederick wrote:

It appears that the first attack was mostly leading elements, and now the tanks are showing up in numbers.

And a Nissan Altima. or whatever that was after the first two tanks

Edit - spoilering for awfulness.

Spoiler:

Today’s super depressing post - I was on Reddit where a teen posted about her sexual assault from Russian soldiers. In the past hour dozens of other Ukrainian women are responding to the thread with their own stories.

What happens if Putin nukes Kyiv?

He clearly doesn’t care what the world thinks, and he does not seem to be operating from a place of mental stability. It’s not like we could even (not that we would want to) respond with nukes because of Russia’s second strike capability.

He doesn't have to use nukes. He could just simply raze Kyiv to the ground with conventional munitions and claim that since Ukraine started arming civilians, they became legitimate targets.

That is always a fear. Nuclear weapons in the hands of an unstable person who does not care about his own people, and would burn it all down rather than surrender power.

I hope the oligarchs wise up to that before it's too late.

Rat Boy wrote:

He doesn't have to use nukes. He could just simply raze Kyiv to the ground with conventional munitions and claim that since Ukraine started arming civilians, they became legitimate targets.

Or use nerve gas like Syria did. Regular Ukrainian military may have full NBC gear but probably not the militia and any civilian supporters are goners.

Rat Boy wrote:

He doesn't have to use nukes. He could just simply raze Kyiv to the ground with conventional munitions and claim that since Ukraine started arming civilians, they became legitimate targets.

Just like they did in Grozny, Chechnya.

I also fear we could be looking at prolonged siege lasting months to years even, with indiscriminate use of artillery, airpower, snipers. A complete breakdown in infrastructure. Starvation. And thousands of civilian casualties. Something along the lines of Sarajevo or Aleppo.

The invasion is certainly calling into question whether Putin is still a rational actor.

Meanwhile;

BREAKING: Senior U.S. official tells @ABC
some Russian forces are disoriented, realizing the battles against Ukrainians are harder than they thought.

A Russian soldier was heard saying on a radio call, “We don’t know who to shoot, they all look like us.”

I can't help but feel like the Ukraine more belongs in NATO than we do right now.
Ukrainian grandparents have fought and are fighting corruption in the face of overwhelming opposition.

Half of our voting population is corrupt and supports further corruption. A non insignificant portion of them support corruption to the point of violence.

gewy wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

He doesn't have to use nukes. He could just simply raze Kyiv to the ground with conventional munitions and claim that since Ukraine started arming civilians, they became legitimate targets.

Just like they did in Grozny, Chechnya.

I also fear we could be looking at prolonged siege lasting months to years even, with indiscriminate use of artillery, airpower, snipers. A complete breakdown in infrastructure. Starvation. And thousands of civilian casualties. Something along the lines of Sarajevo or Aleppo.

I don't see a siege as likely. If they can't capture or kill Zelensky quickly their only option will be to raze Kyiv.

Even if they manage to overthrow the government and install a puppet, it's becoming apparent that the Ukrainian people will not accept that willingly. And with their obvious lack of logistical support the Russian army is going to struggle as an occupying force.

Yeah, you're right. Yugoslavia and Syria were messy civil wars and this is clearly a straightforward invasion with universal opposition (Donbas notwithstanding), so they're not really comparable.

Unfortunately, I do think razing Kyiv is likely

Nomad wrote:

What happens if Putin nukes Kyiv?

Until today, I really thought the odds of Putin resorting to any use of nuclear armaments was effectively zero. Sure, he might posture and threaten, but I didn't think he was willing to trigger MAD.

After today, my confidence in that assessment is showing cracks. Thermobaric weapons? If that's not an empty threat, then nuclear isn't such a far-fetched step. I truly hope I am merely worrying unnecessarily.