[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Badferret wrote:

Fine, how bout, these particular war criminals, who have committed their crimes in the internet and social media age are likely to face "consequences" for their actions, probably including many, extra-judicial assassinations for years to come after the war. Which, will in no way balance the scales of justice for the awful things that they have done.

I just don't personally see how talk of red mist, or war porn post here on this site is informative or shapes a useful discussion. Especially when some of those being described are like this kid. And he's a lucky one for being captured.

It's the degree of disconnection that makes it feel gross for me. Like, I would expect and understand that kind of talk from people who were personally affected by the crimes the Russian troops are doing, but when it's from people who are safely thousands of miles away, it feels a lot more like it's commentary from the rich guys in Squid Games, enthused about the new and interesting ways people will die. Like it's more about being entertained by their (deserved) deaths than it is about getting some amount of justice for their victims.

I would like to point out that the red mist comment specifically mentioned Chief of the Russian General Staff valery gerasimov. I wasn’t talking about a random, scared kid. I was talking about the architect of all this bullsh*t.

Paleocon wrote:

I would like to point out that the red mist comment specifically mentioned Chief of the Russian General Staff valery gerasimov. I wasn’t talking about a random, scared kid. I was talking about the architect of all this bullsh*t.

Reagan?

In Ukrainian villages, a desperate wait for news of the missing

Vira raised herself up on her cane and spoke her prayer aloud. "Please do not take my son." In fact, Valeriy Kuksa was her son-in-law, but she called him her son. The Russians were taking her son. The young one raised his gun halfway. "Go back inside grandma," he said. "He is just going to help us push the car out of the driveway."
But they pushed him into the driver's seat of her car and pointed a gun at him, Vira said. She willed Valeriy to look back at her, but he looked straight ahead and drove away from the house and out of her life.
Top_Shelf wrote:
Mr GT Chris wrote:

Bodies of 44 civilians found as battle for Izyum rages

Bodies of 44 civilians have been found in the rubble of a collapsed building in the Ukrainian city of Izyum as the battle for control of the area rages.
The five-storey building collapsed in March as residents hid in the basement from Russian shelling.
But rescuers have only just been able to reach the building, one local official told the BBC.
And there are fears the death toll could rise further, as another building in the same street was also targeted.

We still worrying about red mist?

No, you are now free to engage in mental and physical masturbation involving blood, gore, and Salma Hayek as you desire. Please enjoy your stay.

Top_Shelf wrote:

We still worrying about red mist?

There is a difference between discussing what happened, and fantasizing in gruesome/gory detail about something bad happening to someone.

VICE has put up another Ukraine video. It includes:

Bodies being recovered from rubble in an area that was held by the Russians for 10 weeks, similar to the Izyum article.
Bodies being exhumed from other recently liberated areas.
A 12-year old visiting her school, where her town was held in the basement for 25 days by Russian forces.
A woman recalling her nephew being summarily shot and her son tortured.
A phone call with a Russian soldier about to be deployed. It's pretty clear he believes all the Russian propaganda, and thinks everything else is Ukrainian propaganda.
A trip to evacuate people from the Donbask region. There's a conversation with a group of people in a shelter, one of whom is clearly pro-Russian.
Ukrainian police detaining locals suspected of spying for the Russians.
A man burying his wife and daughter, who were killed while evacuating.

Warning: This video is very graphic in places.

Mr GT Chris wrote:

To me, in general there seems a lot of glorification of Ukrainian military successes and the western military complex along with mocking of the Russian military. Not enough thought given to or sharing of experiences of what it’s actually like for the people involved, especially non-combatants.

It seems that the media coming out of Ukraine falls into a couple of different categories. There's the stuff showing the human suffering, and there's the stuff showing the successes against the Russian military. And like most media now, the two categories are funneled to the people most likely to watch them. I think some schadenfreude towards the Russian military is warranted, but it's easy to get caught up in it and forget the human toll. So for some people, including myself, this sort of footage is a sobering reminder of the human cost.

Mixolyde wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I would like to point out that the red mist comment specifically mentioned Chief of the Russian General Staff valery gerasimov. I wasn’t talking about a random, scared kid. I was talking about the architect of all this bullsh*t.

Reagan?

How?

If you, like me, have been curious about the 30 (now 40?) billion dollar aid package and how that differs from the Lend Lease bill that was just signed, the Youtuber Perun has another excellent podcast style video on that very question.

I wondered about Belgorod. Ukrainians are probably not going to actually advance on the city, but..

Woofers
@NotWoofers
·
20m
Presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych is claiming that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Russian border around Kharkiv. They are meant to be symbolic actions.

Also, from Oryx confirmed equipment loss tracker, today's tally:

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSgd4BHXMAk2gLv?format=png&name=small)

20 visually confirmed tanks in one day.

The Russians simply can not continue to fight if they have many more days like today.

There are only 558 T72-B3 known to be produced; this is over 1% in a single day... It's their most modern T72 and exceeds many capabilities of the T90...

Russia's confirmed losses are going to be much worse when Oryx gets around to counting their recent failed attempted crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

They essentially lost an entire Battle Tactical Group.

Which probably neutered and broke 3-5 BTGs.

OG_slinger wrote:

Russia's confirmed losses are going to be much worse when Oryx gets around to counting their recent failed attempted crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

They essentially lost an entire Battle Tactical Group.

There's a thread out there from the UKR engineer who predicted the RUS crossing, calculated how RUS would do it, told UKR recon to to listen for motorboats, then watched as 1500 troops and all their vehicles were lost over one day.

ETA:
Oh, and Paleo, here's your boy Mearsheimer (and Stephen Walt!) making the argument of, "Won't someone please think about RUS' interests!" in Toronto tomorrow night at the Munk Debates. You can join and stream it.

https://munkdebates.com/debates/russ...

Top_Shelf wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

Russia's confirmed losses are going to be much worse when Oryx gets around to counting their recent failed attempted crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

They essentially lost an entire Battle Tactical Group.

There's a thread out there from the UKR engineer who predicted the RUS crossing, calculated how RUS would do it, told UKR recon to to listen for motorboats, then watched as 1500 troops and all their vehicles were lost over one day.

ETA:
Oh, and Paleo, here's your boy Mearsheimer (and Stephen Walt!) making the argument of, "Won't someone please think about RUS' interests!" in Toronto tomorrow night at the Munk Debates. You can join and stream it.

https://munkdebates.com/debates/russ...

Yeah. He’s fully russocompromised. Not even trying to pretend to be intellectually honest

Mr GT Chris wrote:
Serbian minister Nenad Popovic said his country and Russia "always have been on the right side of history," as he joined in the march.

Sure.

Finland in favour of application to join Nato

I'm sure this will be received calmly and with common sense in Moscow.

I stg, if I have to live through a nuclear war as seen through Twitter, I will never forgive God.

Badferret wrote:

If you, like me, have been curious about the 30 (now 40?) billion dollar aid package and how that differs from the Lend Lease bill that was just signed, the Youtuber Perun has another excellent podcast style video on that very question.

Thanks so much for this! I have been worried about the West "gifting" money and materials that are actually loans dragging the country down. I mean, it HAS happened before - it was/is basically a geopolitical strategy at various points in history.

I shudder to think what Trump would have done with this situation...

It still remains to be seen what will happen if/when the war ends and how the West will support the rebuild phase.

I'd wager Ukraine takes better care of its veterans than we do.

Mixolyde wrote:

I'd wager Ukraine takes better care of its veterans than we do.

It's true! Even to this day they honor the veterans of the SS Galician division.

Prederick wrote:

Finland in favour of application to join Nato

I'm sure this will be received calmly and with common sense in Moscow.

I stg, if I have to live through a nuclear war as seen through Twitter, I will never forgive God.

"Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay."

IMAGE(https://i.ibb.co/LSDcJpT/IMG-20220512-085904.png)

OG_slinger wrote:

Russia's confirmed losses are going to be much worse when Oryx gets around to counting their recent failed attempted crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

They essentially lost an entire Battle Tactical Group.

Likely more. A full strength BTG has a compliment of 10 tanks. At this point in the war , I think we can safely say there are few if any at full strength. This could have been the lead elements of as many as half a dozen.

It looks like this might be 50 or so vehicles lost.

maverickz wrote:
Mixolyde wrote:

I'd wager Ukraine takes better care of its veterans than we do.

It's true! Even to this day they honor the veterans of the SS Galician division.

"To this day" meaning since March 2019 when a law was passed that granted veteran status to combatants in a number of Ukrainian irregular nationalist armed groups that were active during World War II, one of which was the SS Galician division. The Ukrainian government estimated there were only 1,200 such people still alive in 2018, with most being in their 80s or 90s.

And "honor" meaning a few hundred ultranationalists out of a nation of 44 million participate in an annual march on the anniversary of the division's creation (and only since 2010).

And for no reason whatsoever I'll include the following tidbits: in 1957 Congress passed a law providing pensions to the widows of Confederate soldiers and sailors (along with widows of veterans from several other conflicts) and, even in 2022, seven states continue to honor the most despicable traitors of our nation with a Confederate Heritage Month and a Confederate Memorial Day (it was just two days ago in North and South Carolina).

Clearly we take better care of our veterans than Ukraine does.

In Ukrainian cities occupied by Russia, residents endure unemployment, food shortages and live in constant fear for their safety

Ms Melnik said she felt a "big fear" constantly as she saw Russian soldiers "everywhere", searching civilian houses for Ukrainian soldiers or wandering on the streets in groups.

Russian forces have been accused of rape and other forms of sexual violence against Ukrainian women, children and men in other occupied cities, such as Bucha and Irpin.

"Sometimes I feel how they try to undress me with their eyes," she said.

"I'm so afraid they can do anything they want with me and my daughters.

"We know what they did in Bucha and Irpin."

Ms Melnik said she tried to avoid leaving the house and never travelled very far away.

Another concern for residents of the occupied cities is the potential to be forcibly recruited into the Russian army.

Two weeks before the invasion, pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic leader Denis Pushilin ordered a "general mobilisation" of men in Donetsk to fight against Ukraine military forces.

Mari told the ABC her husband Nik hid in their home in the city of Donetsk for about six weeks.

"The mobilisation is everywhere, [at] bus stops, supermarkets, markets… cars were stopped and the military would take the driver to serve in the Russian army," she said.

Paleocon wrote:

It looks like this might be 50 or so vehicles lost.

73 according to new photo analysis.

On FIN applying for NATO:

Lt Gen Hodges recently recounted how, when FIN started talking about joining NATO, RUS sent 10 ICBM truck launchers to the FIN border to send a message.

In response, FIN sent 10 farmers on tractors to sit across border from the Russians.

It looks like this war, not counting the sanctions, is costing Russia about $900m per day.

Unfortunately the person most responsible for all of this suffering is feeling very little of that.