[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

I mean, it's obvious why, but it's rather amazing to see every single former Soviet state having basically the exact same "Holy shit he seriously did it, what the f*ck is he planning for us" reaction.

Really sad. Ukrainian father saying farewell to daughter to stay behind and fight. Media can show all the explosions etc but this is the stuff that hits hard. It's the result.

Robert Reich's rundown of eight sobering realities about the invasion is fairly good.

Very "which flavor of shit would you prefer" with this.

Also, The Atlantic's Jeet Heer on the American hard right's embrace and celebration of Putin.

They didn't need the kompromat.

The problem is the same guys who grew up idolizing the rebel kids from Red Dawn, have grown up to become the collaborating mayor.

Daily flightradar question. Anyone know why the US would have three Stratotanker fuel jets up at once in Eastern Europe? Some Twitter chatter that a likely F-16 rendezvoused with one of them before turning off its transponder.

Total guess would be that the Ukrainian air force has fled to Poland and Romania and NATO is providing back-up to prevent Russian pursuit to(into) those nation's airspace?

Anyone who knows is likely to keep their mouth shut. Anyone else is just guessing.

Prederick wrote:

Also, The Atlantic's Jeet Heer on the American hard right's embrace and celebration of Putin.

Fascinating and terrifying at the same time. Thanks for sharing!

Badferret wrote:

Daily flightradar question. Anyone know why the US would have three Stratotanker fuel jets up at once in Eastern Europe? Some Twitter chatter that a likely F-16 rendezvoused with one of them before turning off its transponder.

Total guess would be that the Ukrainian air force has fled to Poland and Romania and NATO is providing back-up to prevent Russian pursuit to(into) those nation's airspace?

There is some validity to that thought, as Ukrainian IL-76s appear to be descending into Poland. Now, whether or not combat aircraft* are doing the same remains to be seen.

* = This air war has to be a particularly bad nightmare, as both Russia and Ukraine use the same types of fighters. Radar warning receivers would be useless in sorting who's who and visual ID would be problematic unless one or both sides radically shifted up their liveries.

This retired general articulates my hope for Ukraine's military efforts better than I can after reading Red Storm Rising, 35 years ago.

The Battle of Snake Island was, unfortunately, very, very short.

But damned if they didn't go out like Kings.

It looks like this may be the straw that breaks Republican support for Putin …at least for some. Most of my Trumpist friends are forgetting how much they parroted Tucker Carlson nonsense and are screeching about how Biden is “being too weak”.

It’s going to be some interesting backpedaling

I had totally forgotten that ex-heavyweight boxing champ Vitali Klitschko is current (!) mayor of Kyiv. He and his brother are both vowing to fight.

Prederick wrote:

Also, The Atlantic's Jeet Heer on the American hard right's embrace and celebration of Putin.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/0m5iv7L.jpeg)

The Ukranians are a kick-ass people.

From ex-heavy weight champs and 80 year old grandpas showing up to fight with two changes of underwear, to a Green Party MP retweeting that yesterday had been a very good day for Ukraine's newest Saint; Saint Javelin.

And possibly grandmas. I don't know if the lady has grandchildren; who am I to presume?

Edit: Also, be extremely skeptical of any report coming out of the war zone that doesn't have multiple and independent attribution. From a report of an entire regiment of Russian motorized infantry surrendering because they didn't know they'd be killing Ukrainians to the Ghost of Kyiv story that looks like it was copied from the Ace Combat games, even stories that indicate successes for Ukraine may not be factual.

Yeah, fog of war is a real thing.

The Ukranian media and govt spokespeople are tossing around impressive sounding numbers but I doubt anyone will have a real picture for days or more likely weeks.

However, sources like the UK Sec. of Defense are being quoted as saying that Russia's first day did not go as well as the Russians had hoped. And yet, the Russians are obviously still advancing and most likely will continue to do so.

But, encounters like the one with that grandma (she has to be a grandma, she ain't got time for their shit) have to be demoralizing for the Russians, especially the half of their units that are made up of conscripts serving their one year of active duty.

Da Beeb wrote:

Volodymyr Zelensky has made yet another plea to Western allies to help Ukraine and stop Russia's brutal assault.

"This morning we are defending our state alone. Like yesterday, the world's most powerful forces are watching from afar," Zelensky said in his address to the nation this morning.

"Was Russia convinced by yesterday's sanctions? We hear in our sky and see on our earth that this was not enough."

Sigh, yeah, I'm sorry dude, you are. Because the last 20 years of foreign intervention have taught everyone a single thing:

If you wanna do shit and get away with it without getting cruise missile'd or drone strikes into oblivion, have nukes. And Russia's got a shedload of em'.

From what I understand, when Ukraine became independent, in order to do so and because it so wanted to join NATO, they gave up their nukes.

I don't know if this war wouldn't have happened if Ukraine had a nuke, but I'm willing to wager that it's a significantly different experience.

The avoidance of World War III, just as the avoidance of Civil War II in the US, may leave something almost as bad in its place.

Speaking of war stories that are difficult to confirm in real time, apparently there is a Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot who has now gone 6-0 against Russian fighter pilots. Twitter is calling them the Ghost of Kyiv.

Whether or not the facts align with the narrative, this is the type of story giving Ukrainians hope.

I had to respond to some of Trumpist coworkers.

For all those folks doing mental gyrations to somehow imagine Trump would have "gotten tough with Russia", ask yourself why Michael Flynn needed a pardon and who gave it to him.
Badferret wrote:

The Ukranians are a kick-ass people.

From ex-heavy weight champs and 80 year old grandpas showing up to fight with two changes of underwear, to a Green Party MP retweeting that yesterday had been a very good day for Ukraine's newest Saint; Saint Javelin.

Nice! Strongly considering this flag for the office.

IMAGE(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0568/9527/5101/products/all-over-print-flag-white-front-6217d514a982a.jpg)

Just ordered a Saint NLAW flag, Saint Javelin hoodie, and Saint Javelin stickers. Thanks for the info!

...and my bank just flagged it as potentially fraudulent activity.

To be fair to your bank, I'd imagine that was your first ever online purchase from Eastern Europe and an active warzone.

Putin is looking rough in the video he released tonight begging the Ukrainian military to perform a coup (oh what delicious irony he is inviting.)

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy just released a video from inside Kyiv, with one of his lieutenants holding up a cellphone with the day and time in response to Russian propaganda saying that he had fled the country. Zelenskyy looks great compared to Putin, especially for a man that knows he has low odds of surviving the week.

Elsewhere, in signs that things are going great for Putin, Chechnya is sending very unhappy looking troops to join the war effort.

Finland and Sweden might join NATO.

And there is a huge protest in Tbilisi tonight.

But hey, Trump said you're a genius, Vlad.

Wonder what happens if all the non NATO countries decide to join en-mass. What kind of signal would that send and what impact would it have on Russia? And if other countries do join NATO what the hell happens to poor Ukraine given their current situation.

It's potentially WW III if Western forces engage Russian troops directly. And letting Ukraine into NATO now would require just that, if NATO still means anything. If Putin were to attack, say, Poland, and NATO doesn't respond decisively, then NATO might as well disband.

It appears that one of Putin's goals is to create such an existential crisis for NATO. So far he has been failing, fortunately.

sometimesdee wrote:

Just ordered a Saint NLAW flag, Saint Javelin hoodie, and Saint Javelin stickers. Thanks for the info!

...and my bank just flagged it as potentially fraudulent activity.

That "Russian warship, f*ck you" tshirt is mighty tempting.