[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Also, while I do enjoy their reporting, the kind of respondents The Guardian might get/publish are significantly different than the ones The Daily Mail, for instance, might go with.

Rat Boy wrote:

A message form Putin was just played on Russian TV declaring a military operation in Ukraine to "demilitarize" it. Social media reports indicate attacks are in progress in eastern Ukraine.

not just demilitarizing. also denazifying Ukraine.

Aljazeera has a transcript of his speech

“Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the regime in Kyiv for eight years. And for this we will pursue the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.

“Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force. At the same time, we hear that recently in the West there is talk that the documents signed by the Soviet totalitarian regime, securing the outcome of World War II, should no longer be upheld. Well, what is the answer to this?

I couldn't help but think that in an alternate universe this could be Trump speaking (if Trump wasn't an absolute moron). The speech has all top points of autocrats and dictators.

I'm trying to understand the differences here between Saddam in Kuwait and Putin in Ukraine. The world put a lot on the line to push back against a dictator in a strategically critical spot and we just don't seem willing to do that this go round.

I'm leery of slippery slope arguments but not using force against Putin seems like a miscalculation. He's already expanded to Belarus, Ukraine is happening now, what's next? This will send a STRONG signal to China that Taiwan is on the table (democracy, small, belligerent neighbor, reliant on collective defense). It further tells nuclear states, "Don't ever disarm. Ever." We're basically re-fighting the Crimean War but just letting Russia walk on in (yes, sanctions).

OTOH, maybe there's a world where Putin's overreaching and is making a tremendous mistake that will cause his people to rise up and overthrow him and the kleptocracy. The Crimean War loss had huge consequences internally in Russia, forcing the country to acknowledge how backward it was and began Russia on a modernization path.

The Russian people are also victims to Putin's kleptocratic mafia state.

Using force is, I think, a last resort. It's one of those toothpaste in the tube things. As horrible as it is, I think your second part (hope for overreach) is closer to what is happening. I would be surprised if the Russian people "rise up" though, unless you're talking about a military coup?

Will be interesting to see what sanctions come out today. The size and scope of them may show us where the cracks will form in Putin's power structure.

And let's not lose sight of the fact that China pulled a Susan Collins and is "very concerned" while signing off on importing Russian wheat today.

Quote is not edit.

Top_Shelf wrote:

I'm trying to understand the differences here between Saddam in Kuwait and Putin in Ukraine. The world put a lot on the line to push back against a dictator in a strategically critical spot and we just don't seem willing to do that this go round.

You basically answered your own question:

Top_Shelf wrote:

It further tells nuclear states, "Don't ever disarm. Ever."

Unlike Saddam, Putin actually has WMD's, and lots of them.

I somehow don't think China is willing to openly back Russia; it is -imo- far too reliant on exports into the West.
Counterpoint though - the West is far too reliant on China's cheap exports, so they probably could support Russia without many repercussions.

Is the end-state of all this - assuming the shooting war doesn't expand to NATO - Russia controlling Ukraine, but being so isolated that the economy is utterly ruined for decades?

London/Paris (CNN Business)Russian stocks crashed by more than 40% and the ruble hit a record low against the dollar on Thursday.

The ruble was trading at 84 to the dollar, down 3%, after earlier hitting a new record low of 89.60. The Russian central bank said it would intervene in the currency market and provide extra liquidity to the banking sector.

"This emotional reaction was inevitable, but at the same time it will stabilize," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with foreign journalists. "All the necessary measures have been taken for this," he added.

IMAGE(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/32260665.jpg)

Paleocon wrote:

The Russian people are also victims to Putin's kleptocratic mafia state.

Agreed.

JC wrote:

Using force is, I think, a last resort. It's one of those toothpaste in the tube things. As horrible as it is, I think your second part (hope for overreach) is closer to what is happening. I would be surprised if the Russian people "rise up" though, unless you're talking about a military coup?

To be clear, I'm not saying that regular Russians are responsible for Putin's actions, nor am I saying that it's their responsibility to reign him in by taking ridiculously risky actions like protesting in the streets.

I'm thinking about what happens if Putin finds the going tougher in Ukraine than he assumed, whether that is the pace of the invasion or the size of the UKR resistance during an extended occupation. That could lead to dissatisfaction in Russia and maybe the inherent weakness of an autocratic state (built on fear and the police state keeping its boot on the people's necks) wears out. At some point people have had enough and whether it's the enforcers refusing to enforce or the people in the streets showing them they're going to have to kill everyone, autocrats fall. Repressive regimes are unassailable...until they're not. (See: Chile, Argentina, Poland, Libya, RSA, GDR, Iran, Yugoslavia, Romania, USSR, etc.)

I'm not saying the above is likely. Just could be a world that comes to pass.

And Putin's fall, should that ever happen, does not mean Russia would become a functioning democracy all of a sudden. The more likely scenario would be a succession of populist autocrats trying to stay alive on top of the food chain by whatever means necessary.

Basically, they need to hold out for as long as possible until sanctions start to really bite. Otherwise it's just Crimea/Georgia again. Sad that it's come to this.

That's my concern. It feels like nothing short of direct military intervention will make a difference to Putin, but direct military intervention will also trigger WWIII. Putin is deranged enough to not care about starting a nuclear war, I fear - all because he's trying to bring back the 'glory days' of the old USSR. And those chuckleheads over at Fox are cheering him on. Unbelievable.

If/when Putin falls, I'd guess that it will be at the hands of the military. I can't imagine the officer corps is happy with current events and as far as I know, even the top serving generals are not benefiting from anything close to oligarch levels of reward.

If there is a military coup, do they then roll the dice with whichever oligarchs are still standing? Rule themselves? Free Nalvany (assuming he's still alive?)

Probably still years from such a scenario but the invasion makes it more likely in my completely unscientific opinion.

Russian Ukrainians in Luhansk and Donetsk are the new Sudeten Germans.

I'm sure it will be days/weeks before we get a clearer picture of what these first days really look like, but the Ukrainian journalist that I'm following are reporting that the Russians are losing armor during their advance to javelins.

Russia is really the last tank army in the world, we'll see how this plays out. This is a now a world of IEDs, drones and probably an infinite supply of javelins as long as there is a resistance to smuggle them to.

JC wrote:

"This emotional reaction was inevitable, but at the same time it will stabilize," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with foreign journalists. "All the necessary measures have been taken for this," he added.

Rallick wrote:

That's my concern. It feels like nothing short of direct military intervention will make a difference to Putin...

Putin to Ukraine: "Ha! Perhaps you should ask the UN to invoke 'sanctions'! Ha ha ha!"

There is talk of removing Russia from the SWIFT network, which is the secure network that processes bank to bank transfers all over the world. This would literally detach their economy from the world market. That's sincerely damaging.

Apparently Russians are making a run on dollars because of concerns of the Rubel crashing.
Normally this could bring the snark "I hope it was worth it" but there is no way shape or form that it could be. Plus, the cost for any benefit is just too high to even broach.

What worries me is the fighting in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, or whatever it is called. If Putin is serious, he could capture it, put a nuke there (or claim to), then dare the world to do something. Instant world-wide dirty bomb.

Robear wrote:

What worries me is the fighting in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, or whatever it is called. If Putin is serious, he could capture it, put a nuke there (or claim to), then dare the world to do something. Instant world-wide dirty bomb.

Funny you should say that...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted that Russian forces are attempting to seize control of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

“Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the Chernobyl [Nuclear Power Plant]. Our defenders are sacrificing their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated,” Zelensky tweeted.

JC wrote:
Robear wrote:

What worries me is the fighting in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, or whatever it is called. If Putin is serious, he could capture it, put a nuke there (or claim to), then dare the world to do something. Instant world-wide dirty bomb.

Funny you should say that...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted that Russian forces are attempting to seize control of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

“Russian occupation forces are trying to seize the Chernobyl [Nuclear Power Plant]. Our defenders are sacrificing their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated,” Zelensky tweeted.

Putin really is a real life Bond villain.

Chernobyl has fallen. Not a sentence I'd ever thought I would have written.

Badferret wrote:

Chernobyl has fallen. Not a sentence I'd ever thought I would have written.

After 2020, there are no sentences that surprise me anymore.

Man, what the f*ck.

Everyone predicting this will lead to Putin’s downfall… I hope you’re right, but I’m having a hard time seeing it. I mean, we’re living in a world in which Nicolas Maduro is somehow still in control of Venezuela.

So does nuclear winter solve global warming? /sarcasm

Man, why does every year lately have to "hold my beer" the last one for awfulness?

Chernobyl's on the fastest invasion route to Kyiv.

Chernobyl's on the fastest invasion route to Kyiv.

I shudder to think what the real life costs will be to Ukrainian and Russian troops in 5, 10 or 20 years.

Daredevils and ghost hunters (used to) run around Pripyat all the time wearing protective gear and limiting their exposure.

Eureka!
Putin secretly just wants to play RL "Among Us". That is why he was crowing that the west wasn't listening to him...
IMAGE(https://www.queensjournal.ca/sites/default/files/img/story/2020/10/01/among_us.png)