A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.
Since 5 or 6 of the 31 Abrams have been destroyed/captured, they've been pulled from service. There are differing explanations, but unit value, morale effects and lack of drone protection all seem to factor in.
Nevin73 wrote:I thought the Germans had given Ukraine Leopards?
Nope. Other countries gave their Leopards to Ukraine and were held up from doing so while Germany debated whether or not to let them.
Nope.
30 Leopard 1A5
18 Leopard 2A6
delivered far too late, but ultimately delivered.
so remember when I told you about my buddy who owns an old British destroyer?
Among his other strange hobbies, he tracks global logistics using Flight Tracker and shipping transponders. Apparently knowing where shit is going really helps him make powerful investment decisions.
Anyway, one of the things he has been noticing is that Russian and Chinese civilian vessels are routinely disabling their transponders when they get within 500 nautical miles of the Azores off the coast of Portugal. And satellite images are showing that they are rendezvousing and doing ship to ship transfer of crude oil at sea in order to skirt both the sanctions and the insurance ban.
So....
What if....
Ukraine were to take its two minesweepers it has anchored in the UK and commission them as privateers....
It would absolutely cornhole Russian logistics and destroy their revenue stream. They would literally be reduced to pumping crude oil into open fields because they can't afford to turn off the pumps for risk of wellhead freeze. They lack the storage and there are insufficient ships OR lading facilities to weather the disruption.
Watch this space.
So you're suggesting that oil tankers full of oil, in the ocean, should be destroyed while in the ocean. The Azores are a huge archipelago for a lot of ocean creatures.
This is a horrible idea.
So you're suggesting that oil tankers full of oil, in the ocean, should be destroyed while in the ocean. The Azores are a huge archipelago for a lot of ocean creatures.
This is a horrible idea.
Not destroyed.
Appropriated.
Ok. Having just binged all 4 seasons of Black Sails I can get on board with that (see what I did there?)
Or Paleo's buddy needs a crew.
And here I was pondering getting my sea legs...
I am pretty sure a couple dozen rounds of 30mm through the front end of the pilot house of tanker would prove fairly persuasive. Board with some Ukrainian marines and authorized contractors and claim the booty in the name of the Republic.
Or Paleo's buddy needs a crew.
Wait, is this going to be a spin-off to Kick Gas? 
JC wrote:So you're suggesting that oil tankers full of oil, in the ocean, should be destroyed while in the ocean. The Azores are a huge archipelago for a lot of ocean creatures.
This is a horrible idea.
Not destroyed.
Appropriated.
First explain how this wouldn't run afoul of international laws against piracy?
Paleocon wrote:JC wrote:So you're suggesting that oil tankers full of oil, in the ocean, should be destroyed while in the ocean. The Azores are a huge archipelago for a lot of ocean creatures.
This is a horrible idea.
Not destroyed.
Appropriated.
First explain how this wouldn't run afoul of international laws against piracy?
Commerce raiding is actually an act of war. Considering a state of war already exists, this is a matter between the belligerent states.
Just do the Russia thing and deny everything regardless of the evidence that piles up.
Why are they meeting in the Atlantic, though? And is that really confirmed?
Why are they meeting in the Atlantic, though? And is that really confirmed?
Great question. It does read very much as an internet conspiracy theory.
slazev wrote:Why are they meeting in the Atlantic, though? And is that really confirmed?
Great question. It does read very much as an internet conspiracy theory.
Russian ship to ship transfers, particularly to Chinese companies, is pretty well documented. As is the practice of "going dark".
Given that they seem committed to living outside the rules of global commerce, it would only seem natural that the rules do not protect them. Smugglers don't get to cry about how they got robbed.
Great question. It does read very much as an internet conspiracy theory.
Without violating his privacy, I can just say that he is absolute *death* on internet conspiracies and muddled thinking. He's an amazing person and a valued friend.
JC wrote:Great question. It does read very much as an internet conspiracy theory.
Without violating his privacy, I can just say that he is absolute *death* on internet conspiracies and muddled thinking. He's an amazing person and a valued friend.
Are we talking about the same Paleocon?
Not talking about Paleocon lol, but it is true of him too. 
Or Paleo's buddy needs a crew.
Rolling up to Paleo’s friend like
Does Ukraine have blue water navy ships that can cross the atlantic?
Does Ukraine have blue water navy ships that can cross the atlantic?
It's a bit of a stretch, but the M310 Chernihiv and M311 Cherkasy are minehunters that are capable of blue water operations. More importantly, they could quite easily be modified to be USV tenders as well. They are currently moored in HMNB Portsmouth in the UK.
Jakub Janovsky
@Rebel44CZ
·
27m
The split of documented Russian tank losses by platform:T-54/55: 8
T-62: 136
T-64: 92
T-72: 1441
T-80: 840
T-90: 136
unknown tank: 347
--------------
total: 3000
Show more
Quote
Jakub Janovsky
@Rebel44CZ
·
34m
Our total count of visually documented Russian tank losses during their 2022 invasion of Ukraine has just reached 3000!What an epic failure from a self-proclaimed military superpower.
Russia might never run out of troops, but they will eventually run out of tanks.
Unfortunately, infantry, artillery and missiles can still win them this war.
There will be large parts of buryatia and Dagestan that will be abandoned because they lack the young men needed to function but the Muscovites will still drink their kombucha and pretend it isn’t happening. Such is the nature of colonial empire.
What can Ukraine do over the medium term to combat Russia?
- key insights into how Russia is faring
Stephen Kotkin on possible futures for Russia.
- Imperial restoration is impossible
- Turning into FRA would be GREAT (but unlikely)
- North Korea a distinct possibility (vassal state of China)
There will be large parts of buryatia and Dagestan that will be abandoned because they lack the young men needed to function but the Muscovites will still drink their kombucha and pretend it isn’t happening. Such is the nature of colonial empire.
All of Dagestan's fit, goat-bearded young men have joined the UFC.
That Ismail Yabadabagov has a heck of a chin.
Ramzan Kadyrov reportedly has pancreatic necrosis. The smart money is on him not making it through to Christmas.
Chechnya is by all measures a shitshow of warring, religious fanatical factions barely held together by a lavish system of patronage set up by Ramzan's father and currently administered by Ramzan. The fuel for this system is enormous subsidies from Moscow from currently diminishing oil and gas revenue. Should any link in the carefully assembled chain of patronage break, the shitshow breaks containment and theaters in Moscow start getting shot up. There is at least some speculation that last month's attack was a tiny preview of the shit awaiting Ramzan's eventual and imminent demise.
Ramzan has two sons and would love to make command over the Russian aid money a dynastic progression, but his oldest is 18 and by most measures even more of a f*ckup than his dad. There could, conceivably, be some sort of Russian controlled regency, but his odds of outlasting a tuna sandwich in a landlocked, Third World country would be.... longish.
Moscow would likely prefer to have Apti Alaudinov (head of the Chechen Azmat TikTok fighters) take over which would necessarily alienate the Kadyrov faction. They could try to buy them off, but the more likely course of Russian action would be to simply wipe out the entire family and reshuffle the deck with a heavy bet on Alaudinov. Ramzan is a f*cking moron, but even he has to see this one coming and probably has some nasty contingencies planned.
In any event, watch this space. f*ckery on an industrial scale is coming.
Paleocon wrote:There will be large parts of buryatia and Dagestan that will be abandoned because they lack the young men needed to function but the Muscovites will still drink their kombucha and pretend it isn’t happening. Such is the nature of colonial empire.
All of Dagestan's fit, goat-bearded young men have joined the UFC.
That Ismail Yabadabagov has a heck of a chin.
I am going to have to look up if this is a real person and how to pronounce that last name because right now my first instinct HAS to be wrong. Right?
Yep, you got me!
H.P. Lovesauce wrote:Paleocon wrote:There will be large parts of buryatia and Dagestan that will be abandoned because they lack the young men needed to function but the Muscovites will still drink their kombucha and pretend it isn’t happening. Such is the nature of colonial empire.
All of Dagestan's fit, goat-bearded young men have joined the UFC.
That Ismail Yabadabagov has a heck of a chin.
I am going to have to look up if this is a real person and how to pronounce that last name because right now my first instinct HAS to be wrong. Right?
Yep, you got me!
Yeah, it was always meant to be said aloud (ideally in the dumb excitable voice of Joe Rogan) rather than written.
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