A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.
But not for Ukrainians who do the same? I am fine with it, since they were attacked without any provocation other than existence. Just curious on your thoughts?
My own opinion is that there are very few measures that are off limits in self defense in the face of genocide. There are some that are counterproductive, but I can think of very few that are inexcusable. If in order for Ukraine to stop Russia from erasing the Ukrainian people (their stated goal) they have to slaughter a million Russian civilians with forbidden weapons, I would allow it.
But that's just me.
Also there is definitive difference between targeting civilian population centers and civilian casualties from collateral damage.
Looks like Russia just blew the Nova Kakhovka dam.
Looks like Russia just blew the Nova Kakhovka dam.
It looks like a nuclear catastrophe at Zaporizhia is unavoidable now.
This has to trigger direct intervention doesn’t it?
From what I’ve seen but not confirmed the plant is not in immediate danger as the reactors have been in a “cold” shutdown state for several months so cooling needs are reduced. It also has a large cooling pond reservoir roughly the size Central Park. I’ve also heard the pipes used to pull the water go down deep enough to river level.
Holy shit, the videos on reddit are insane and heartbreaking.
Any info on topic, or sub-reddit, or anything? I mean there is so much going on right now...
This seems incredibly shortsighted. Halting the counteroffensive temporarily. Crimea will be starved of water even more so.
Any info on topic, or sub-reddit, or anything? I mean there is so much going on right now...
Pretty much the entirety of /r/Ukraine right now.
https://kyivindependent.com/southern...
https://kyivindependent.com/presiden...
Requests for aid, boats, water filters, etc.
Maybe Putin thinks if he can successfully impersonate Chiang Kai-shek, the US will ultimately side with him.
I've been seeing that stuff, but so much more, just did not know which you meant. 
Another turning point in a horrific conflict.
This seems incredibly shortsighted. Halting the counteroffensive temporarily. Crimea will be starved of water even more so.
Unless the Russians really had intel that the Ukrainians were about to launch an amphibious assault across the Dnipro, I don't think this halts shit.
Sounds like RUS blew the dam...but didn't have a plan for what that would do to their own guys downstream?
Are we sure they are going to be able to manage and control an enormous defensive line?
Hadn't the Russians started mandatory evacuations of residents in area villages months ago and hadn't blowing up of the dam by Russians been semi-expected since the succesful Cherson offensive? Pretty sure the animated "projected scope of flooding" video making the rounds is one I first saw in October.
What I'm trying to say is that this isn't a surprise to me, per se - this stuff happens in war (British did it to the Germans in WW2 for example).....but obviouslly very awful. I really hope this doesn't cause a nuclear disaster on top of everything else.
I read something about Russians meaning to blow a small section of the dam in order to flood out Ukraine forces camped on islands downstream, but they screwed up and the whole thing failed.
This is from a Twitter thread summarizing YouTube videos of people analyzing the news information and ... evolving Russian statements over the course of that night and the next day or so. So grain of salt and all that, but it makes some sense.
I read something about Russians meaning to blow a small section of the dam in order to flood out Ukraine forces camped on islands downstream, but they screwed up and the whole thing failed.
This is from a Twitter thread summarizing YouTube videos of people analyzing the news information and ... evolving Russian statements over the course of that night and the next day or so. So grain of salt and all that, but it makes some sense.
ISW reports that the extent of the flooding definitely appears to have taken Russian forces downstream by surprise. The evacuation has been panicked and the amount of equipment and supplies they have left behind is extensive. Far more, by all accounts, than the affected Ukrainians who were mostly occupying higher ground.
A few folks have speculated that rather than a deliberate detonation, the demolition of the dam may have been caused by simple incompetence. The Russians had closed off the sluice gates resulting in the reservoir being very near flood levels. That combined with an exceptionally wet Spring led to an extraordinary amount of pressure behind the dam. Reports of what sounded like underground explosions were heard immediately prior to the dam failure, but those could as easily be explained by structural failure.
At first glance, the timing of this seems altogether too convenient considering how it is coming "on the eve" of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but keep in mind that we have been anticipating this counteroffensive since early March. In any event, whether this was deliberate or the result of characteristic Russian incompetence, it is still the fault of the Russians and a crime against humanity. Everyone in the chain of command from Putin down to Private Eatshitsky should be dragged in front of the ICC for this.
Doesn't this also f*ck over Crimean water supply?
Doesn't this also f*ck over Crimean water supply?
ISW notes that Crimea managed to survive the water cutoff after the 2014 invasion. That said, it will definitely add considerable logistical pressure.
Kevin McCarthy stated that he will block any attempt to increase aid to Ukraine.
Kevin McCarthy stated that he will block any attempt to increase aid to Ukraine.
Does he not have stock in the defense contractors that will replace all the old stock we are giving them? Can we buy him some so he'll make money off the deal?
Wow. Prigozhin now saying that the Ukrainians will begin taking actual Russian territory, there will be widespread defections of the Russian army, Putin may detonate a nuclear weapon in Belgorod, and that the Russian MoD will begin executing high ranking officers by firing squad.
I think Mr. Wagner has gone off the rails.
Who is he working for, again? 
It's not just one dam by now.
Who is he working for, again? :-)
Himself.
Given the evidence already available, the conclusion that the Russians destroyed the dam (whether accidentally or deliberately) is inescapable.
The only folks questioning this conclusion fall into one of three categories:
1) Agents for Putin.
2) The simple ignorant
3) moral cowards
The motivation for the first is obvious and their track record of lying is so consistent that the moment they tell the truth on anything is a event to memorialize with a granite edifice.
The second are folks that are reachable through education.
The last are folks who know in their minds and hearts the truth, but fear the inevitable responsibility that conclusion portends. The world cannot tolerate a monster like Putin and it is our responsibility to rid it of him irrespective of the costs.
I saw a troll reply to a really good Timothy Snyder thread about covering this event with, "Why didn't Russia just open the flood gates, instead of blowing it up?" and I'm curious what the real world response to that is.
First, that would not produce a large enough flow to do damage. That would not come anywhere near to emptying the dam. Secondly, they can be closed again. And third, the object is to deny the enemy the use of their infrastructure. It also forces them to commit humanitarian resources to a combat zone. And it may affect the coming counter-offensive, for a while.
Also, they have pursued a campaign of civilian terror and demoralization since day one. So that's how they operate.
tbf, we are talking to people who think that the war is a gigantic op because McDonald's in Kyiv is still operating.
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