[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Paleocon wrote:

Russian fighters down US Reaper drone over Black Sea in hostile act.

Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

(WaPo link)

The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.

U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia’s invasion early last year, compared with about 200,000 on the Russian side, which has a much larger military and roughly triple the population from which to draw conscripts. Ukraine keeps its running casualty numbers secret, even from its staunchest Western supporters.

Statistics aside, an influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.

“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”

Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital. An inability by Ukraine to execute a much-hyped counteroffensive would fuel new criticism that the United States and its European allies waited too long, until the force had already deteriorated, to deepen training programs and provide armored fighting vehicles, including Bradleys and Leopard battle tanks.

The situation on the battlefield now may not reflect a full picture of Ukraine’s forces, because Kyiv is training troops for the coming counteroffensive separately and deliberately holding them back from current fighting, including the defense of Bakhmut, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid.

Coulda sent ATACMS months ago.

Coulda sent modern tanks last year.

I think the most appropriate response to all the Russian f*ckery recently would be for the Moldovan government to ask the Romanians for help dealing with the Transnistrians.  The Romanians won't miss two mech brigades for six months and they would run through the Transnistrian garrison like sh*t through a goose.   

A quick look at Transnistria's military reveals it has 18 T64's and two Mi8 helicopters and an undetermined number of MT-LB's.  Paper strength of 5k soldiers, but probably a state of readiness somewhere below that of the LNR. 

Vaporize the tanks and the first 300 guys in traitor uniforms who aren't fast enough dropping their Mosins and the rest will become model Moldovan citizens.

Putin can cry all he wants about it being a "provocation", but since they are ostensibly not Russian, he can cry into his steaming mug of cope.

edit: and we should be arming the living f*ck out of the Georgians.

Paleocon wrote:

dropping their Mosins

Almost spit out my coffee at this. Well done.

Paleo wrote:

edit: and we should be arming the living f*ck out of the Georgians.

Agreed.

And anyone with a Russian passport and anything resembling a weapon or uniform gets scooped up as an unlawful combatant and disappeared to an undisclosed location. Spetnaz and Wagner wankers get to sweat it out in Guantanamov for the duration.

A Facebook friend of a friend I've been talking with since a little before the invasion has been working to set up a new organization to "promote peace" in Ukraine, based on the work of people like Sachs and Mearheimer, and a few friends of his who spent time in Ukraine in the 90's and 2000's (well before the reforms).

Over time, it's become clear that the actual basis for his arguments is solid anti-Americanism, which is fine, but he's at the point where he has admitted that he feels that the Ukrainian people have no agency, and that they are all brainwashed by Washington into wanting to fight Russia. He feels the Russians were pushed too far in Ukraine, in Syria, in other places, and that Russia's "natural interests" justify their invasions and interventions since the 90's.

But today, in a discussion, he justified the invasions of Ukraine by citing, as also justified, Hitler's takeovers of the Sudetenland, Austria and Czechoslovakia. Poland was a war too far for him, but it's fascinating to me that someone who wants to see peace because of the harm war does can bend his moral compass so far as to use f-ing Hitler as a justification for Putin's invasion.

It's a wonderful example of how bias in one area can ruin one's moral standing in others.

Robear wrote:

A Facebook friend of a friend I've been talking with since a little before the invasion has been working to set up a new organization to "promote peace" in Ukraine, based on the work of people like Sachs and Mearheimer, and a few friends of his who spent time in Ukraine in the 90's and 2000's (well before the reforms).

Over time, it's become clear that the actual basis for his arguments is solid anti-Americanism, which is fine, but he's at the point where he has admitted that he feels that the Ukrainian people have no agency, and that they are all brainwashed by Washington into wanting to fight Russia. He feels the Russians were pushed too far in Ukraine, in Syria, in other places, and that Russia's "natural interests" justify their invasions and interventions since the 90's.

But today, in a discussion, he justified the invasions of Ukraine by citing, as also justified, Hitler's takeovers of the Sudetenland, Austria and Czechoslovakia. Poland was a war too far for him, but it's fascinating to me that someone who wants to see peace because of the harm war does can bend his moral compass so far as to use f-ing Hitler as a justification for Putin's invasion.

It's a wonderful example of how bias in one area can ruin one's moral standing in others.

Professor Farnsworth wrote:

Everyone's always in favour of saving Hitler's brain. But when you put it in the body of a great white shark, ooh!! Suddenly you've gone too far.

Robear wrote:

It's a wonderful example of how bias in one area can ruin one's moral standing in others.

I thought it was another example of how Facebook exposes the worst in people and makes me hate everyone.

Porque no los dos, farley?

Given the Russian tactics and how well Ukrainians snipers are equipped, it would shock me if Simo Hayha's record of 429 confirmed kills survives the year.

US video of the Russian attack on the Reaper drone.

Modern planes aren't really built to take much damage. I wonder what damage was done to the actual plane versus the drone.

The SU-27 is built to take off and land in rough fields and unimproved runways, so it has lots of structural reinforcements not present in many Western fighters. This is a long-time design feature of many Soviet and Russian aircraft.

Didn't know that, thanks!

Besides the hardware, I'd worry more about a pilot culture that says, "Sure, I'll poke the bear, either under orders or on my own, because what could possibli go wrong either right now at 5k ft if I hit that thing or downstream in this process. Whatever! YOLO! Wheeeee!"

Is spraying fuel on the enemy the air supremacy version of teabagging?

Top_Shelf wrote:

Besides the hardware, I'd worry more about a pilot culture that says, "Sure, I'll poke the bear, either under orders or on my own, because what could possibli go wrong either right now at 5k ft if I hit that thing or downstream in this process. Whatever! YOLO! Wheeeee!"

The speculation I've seen is that while the fuel dumping was intentional, the collision was not and further points to the low quality of pilots/training in the Russian air force.

Doesn't really disprove your point though. Accidently firing a missile or flying past the wrong point can be just as dangerous.

Badferret wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

Besides the hardware, I'd worry more about a pilot culture that says, "Sure, I'll poke the bear, either under orders or on my own, because what could possibli go wrong either right now at 5k ft if I hit that thing or downstream in this process. Whatever! YOLO! Wheeeee!"

The speculation I've seen is that while the fuel dumping was intentional, the collision was not and further points to the low quality of pilots/training in the Russian air force.

Doesn't really disprove your point though. Accidently firing a missile or flying past the wrong point can be just as dangerous.

Yup. I heard a British army general remark that he didn't think it was intentional because "the Russian pilot who could hit the propeller of a drone with his plane on purpose has not been born yet".

Poland breaks with NATO allies by pledging to send fighter jets to Ukraine

Poland will transfer four of its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in the coming days, the Polish president said, breaking with its NATO allies by becoming the first member to fulfill Kyiv's repeated requests for aircraft to counter Russian attacks.

Indirectly (?) related to the war in Ukraine - on Tuesday and again this morning, I've seen groups of 5 or so US Army Stryker vehicles rolling through Ansbach, Germany (where I live). Never seen them here before.

This morning, I noticed the radar on their right side.

Turns out they are the new M-Shorad air defense systems, and the battalions here are, as far as I understand it, the first to get it. These might be the same vehicles Ukrainians were trained on in nearby Grafenwöhr.

Article from Feb 19th about M-Shorad in Grafenwöhr. More recent articles about Ansbach are behind paywalls.

There are also plans to increase the US troop size here by another 930.

Chairman_Mao wrote:

Is spraying fuel on the enemy the air supremacy version of teabagging?

Rolling coal.

Badferret wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

Besides the hardware, I'd worry more about a pilot culture that says, "Sure, I'll poke the bear, either under orders or on my own, because what could possibli go wrong either right now at 5k ft if I hit that thing or downstream in this process. Whatever! YOLO! Wheeeee!"

The speculation I've seen is that while the fuel dumping was intentional, the collision was not and further points to the low quality of pilots/training in the Russian air force.

Doesn't really disprove your point though. Accidently firing a missile or flying past the wrong point can be just as dangerous.

Right?

"You can trust me to not fire my missiles...because I have shown to be trustworthy to not do Top Gun sh*t in other situations. Pfft. 'Rules' are for losers! Yeeee-haw!"

And all this is coming from an institutional culture that will kill their own troops for failing to commit suicide by marching into enemy machine guns over open ground.

Russian pilots deliberately knock down a US UAV over international waters and the next day Poland and Slovakia are sending jets to Ukraine. Coincidence? Maybe.

Either way, Vladimir, FAFO.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/57HzjxD.jpeg)

Not that it will happen but....

ICC issues arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin

....and Orbán "Hungary" continues to delay ratification.

Edit: according to atv.hu, which google translate can't seem to automatically translate, the date of the ratification was apparently last planned for next week, but now delayed again to March 31st.