A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.
The only reason it's humorous is that conservatives have pushed the narrative periodically, usually as part of Euro-bashing or to try to push France into ill-advised actions, until it became something bland and everyday. It's scurrilous and disrespectful. At the same time the Bush Admin was renaming everything "French" in the Capitol to "Freedom" and nattering about "Cheese-Eating Surrender Monkeys" diplomatically, it was massively expanding intel operations with the French, which it recognized for it's work for several years in the mid-2000's as the most successful anti-terrorist operators in Europe and the Middle East, even more than the US.
It's propaganda, not a joke.
Okay, I'm off my soap box. Just had to say it.
The only reason it's humorous is that conservatives have pushed the narrative periodically, usually as part of Euro-bashing or to try to push France into ill-advised actions, until it became something bland and everyday. It's scurrilous and disrespectful. At the same time the Bush Admin was renaming everything "French" in the Capitol to "Freedom" and nattering about "Cheese-Eating Surrender Monkeys" diplomatically, it was massively expanding intel operations with the French, which it recognized for it's work for several years in the mid-2000's as the most successful anti-terrorist operators in Europe and the Middle East, even more than the US.
It's propaganda, not a joke.
Okay, I'm off my soap box. Just had to say it.
Aside from the Americans, the Brits, and the Chinese, the French are perhaps the only country able to combine competent air and ground forces and a true blue water navy capable of realistic power projection beyond its immediate littorals. Of the four, France consistently punches way above its weight.
In sharp contrast, the Germans have been dining out on their world war reputations as militarily competent since the 1940's. Their procurement is a complete trainwreck under ideal circumstances and they have preferred spending their peace dividend and laundering Russian mob money to taking security concerns seriously.
Germany does seem to have pretty good armored vehicles.
Germany does seem to have pretty good armored vehicles.
They tend to make some pretty good stuff, but their own procurement system is hella broken. And their lack of participation in NATO missions puts into question their efficacy as a fighting force.
I think the world would have been pretty worried if Germany's massive industrial base had at any point since 1945 pivoted towards military complex...
The US is the laughingstock of advanced nations with functional social welfare programs. Conversely, every other advanced nation probably can't run a serious and sustained combined arms ops continuously year on year. The US was enforcing its sovereign interests with might. RUS is attempting to do so in UKR albeit very ineffectively. All this tells us is that you need to spend and spend big if you want to be the best at killing other humans. No new lessons here, it's why it's called an arms race. The irony is that the word race in arms race could comfortably be interpreted as a reference to humanity as armed biological creatures.
We are armed biological creatures. Us and octopuses and, uhh, kangaroos. Most biological creatures just have legs.
We are armed biological creatures. Us and octopuses and, uhh, kangaroos. Most biological creatures just have legs.
Praying mantis.
I think the world would have been pretty worried if Germany's massive industrial base had at any point since 1945 pivoted towards military complex...
The US is the laughingstock of advanced nations with functional social welfare programs. Conversely, every other advanced nation probably can't run a serious and sustained combined arms ops continuously year on year. The US was enforcing its sovereign interests with might. RUS is attempting to do so in UKR albeit very ineffectively. All this tells us is that you need to spend and spend big if you want to be the best at killing other humans. No new lessons here, it's why it's called an arms race. The irony is that the word race in arms race could comfortably be interpreted as a reference to humanity as armed biological creatures.
The most aggravating thing is that there is plenty of American wealth and productivity to afford world class social welfare programs, intelligent and modern infrastructure, properly administered local to federal governance, and much much more while still dominating the world's oceans and intimidating the living sh*t out of folks who would wish to destroy the rules based international order. There just isn't enough to do that AND let .001% of the population horde all the wealth.
Also, I think you can nitpick "octopuses." Are those arms, really? Are we just calling tentacles arms now? Or am I gatekeeping?
Also, I think you can nitpick "octopuses." Are those arms, really? Are we just calling tentacles arms now? Or am I gatekeeping?
Tentacle has a specific biological term and octopodes don't have them.
I guess this report doesn't exist and isn't happening, per the genius we discussed on the last page.
It is really interesting to hear Putin trying to sell the war as even more of an existential threat. Like, he's basically saying that the West wants to wipe Russia and Russians off the map.
Top_Shelf wrote:JLS wrote:It's disheartening to see Western European nations appear to make the same historical mistakes with warmongering dictators. It seems utterly myopic. But I don't live there and don't know what pressures their leaders experience to maintain functioning societies amidst significant resource insecurities.
As you rightly note, this is a Western European issue.
Poland, the Baltics, Finland and others with recent experience with Russia know what's up.
Czech Republic, Moldavia, Georgia, Holland....
Video up on C-Span and other places of all the various reprensentivtes from all over Europe and their support. I think the title of the Atlantic Council's version of the same talk about covers it.
Said it before but it bears repeating: Don't equate Germany and France as Western Europe. And don't take their stances at face value either. What matters is what they do at EU level. Anything else is for another audience.
So is EU support balanced on the knife's edge of elections like it is for this country?
Yeah. I am beginning to wonder if the rumors of Western wavering support are overblown. There are definitely Russian agents like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene who push that hard, but I do think that the overall narrative more reflects a Russian information op than a sober representation of facts on the ground.
If we examine what the Western powers have done rather than how folks interpret what they have said, the clear direction indicates a long term Russian divorce. The rapid construction of "swimming LNG terminals" by the Germans, the shift in infrastructure investment to ones independent of Russian inputs, and the full bore reliance on the Norwegian Karsto pipeline all indicate that irrespective of the outcome of the war, the West is reluctant to resume the relationship it once had with Putin's Rosneft.
It is still frustrating to hear Macron and Shultz talk about the "inevitability" of negotiation like it is a given that Putin will come to his senses and accept a deal that ensures Ukrainian security and sovereignty. Particularly when any deal that gives him any concessions would absolutely ensure the complete opposite outcome.
So is EU support balanced on the knife's edge of elections like it is for this country?
Not being smart but who are you thinking could get into power and completely shift the direction of the EU at this point? It could happen but either we are talking years down the road or some major siesmic shift in European politics. As it stands, the general view now is Russia has to be excised from Ukraine.
And lets be really honest here, the EU would love Ukraine to be on the path to membership for pure optics alone.
Nevin73 wrote:So is EU support balanced on the knife's edge of elections like it is for this country?
Not being smart but who are you thinking could get into power and completely shift the direction of the EU at this point? It could happen but either we are talking years down the road or some major siesmic shift in European politics. As it stands, the general view now is Russia has to be excised from Ukraine.
And lets be really honest here, the EU would love Ukraine to be on the path to membership for pure optics alone.
I know nothing about EU politics except that I think I would rather live there than in the US.
It is still frustrating to hear Macron and Shultz talk about the "inevitability" of negotiation like it is a given that Putin will come to his senses and accept a deal that ensures Ukrainian security and sovereignty. Particularly when any deal that gives him any concessions would absolutely ensure the complete opposite outcome.
I've no way of proving this but I see this more and a good cop/bad cop scenario. Let the former Soviet Bloc and other smaller less nuclear armed countries vent their frustation but Germany and France play at being the rational actor. It gives Russia an out, if Putin either comes to his senses or is ousted, but allows those two play the good cop. The rest of us can pretty much act how we like.
I know nothing about EU politics except that I think I would rather live there than in the US.
The proportional voting systems makes it very hard for the entire systems to just flip like the US or UK. It generally happens very gradually and you can see shifts occurs in small steps. Remember how much of US and UK media predicted that Europe was going far-right after a some fringe parties won a few seats? What's interesting from that analysis is they completely missed the huge rises of Green parties across Europe but I suppose that doesn't fit a narrative 
Sadly, I don't think the Germans and French are onboard with any policy that results in Ukraine actually winning the war. I am more and more convinced that they are steering toward an armistice that results in a frozen conflict and a guaranteed reprise in a few years so they can lift the sanctions and get their sweet, sweet blood gas.
The Greens (second largest of the three government coalition partners in Germany) are working on a law that outlaws installing new oil and gas heating systems starting next year (one year earlier than originally agreed upon in the coalition), and all existing ones have to be phased out by 2045.
Their partners, SPD and FDP aren't happy about parts of it. Imo it's going to happen; the only question is the actual timeline.
The law requires all new heating systems to use at least 65% renewable energy sources.
Google translated N-TV.de article.
In actual Ukraine news, in addition to the constant reports of Ukraine not having nor getting enough ammo, Bachmut looks like it's almost encircled, with only one usable road still going in or out of the city....
Paleocon wrote:Sadly, I don't think the Germans and French are onboard with any policy that results in Ukraine actually winning the war. I am more and more convinced that they are steering toward an armistice that results in a frozen conflict and a guaranteed reprise in a few years so they can lift the sanctions and get their sweet, sweet blood gas.
The Greens (second largest of the three government coalition partners in Germany) are working on a law that outlaws installing new oil and gas heating systems starting next year (one year earlier than originally agreed upon in the coalition), and all existing ones have to be phased out by 2045.
Their partners, SPD and FDP aren't happy about parts of it. Imo it's going to happen; the only question is the actual timeline.
The law requires all new heating systems to use at least 65% renewable energy sources.
Google translated N-TV.de article.In actual Ukraine news, in addition to the constant reports of Ukraine not having nor getting enough ammo, Bachmut looks like it's almost encircled, with only one usable road still going in or out of the city....
My understanding is that though residential gas usage gets all the screaming, the German thirst for gas is mostly industrial applications. The German chemical industry was entirely dependent on Russian petrochemical inputs. Companies like BASF and Bayer, for instance, architected their business models around cheaply available inputs.
There is truth to that, but the amount households currently use is not insignificant.
Most of the year, industry uses far more gas than households, but:
Gas consumption by industry, households and commerceIn recent months, the Federal Network Agency has called for gas consumption to be at least 20 percent lower than the average for previous years. The following chart shows how much gas households and industry use each week. It also shows that households play an important role in the cold season. At 1,500 to 2,500 gigawatt hours per day, their consumption is in the same order of magnitude as that of industry, and even higher at peak times.
Just below that paragraph in the link is a chart titled "Aktueller Gasverbrauch..." ("Current gas usage...") with three buttons that change the chart.
The blue "Gesamt" is total - meaning households and industry (and other?).
Green "Haushalte" is households.
Red "Industrie"...should be clear.
The dotted line is the average of previous years, the gray is min/max usage in 2018-2021.
Also, some gas intensive industries have already begun to, or plan to start migrating to hydrogen soon.
There is truth to that, but the amount households currently use is not insignificant.
Most of the year, industry uses far more gas than households, but:
Gas consumption by industry, households and commerceIn recent months, the Federal Network Agency has called for gas consumption to be at least 20 percent lower than the average for previous years. The following chart shows how much gas households and industry use each week. It also shows that households play an important role in the cold season. At 1,500 to 2,500 gigawatt hours per day, their consumption is in the same order of magnitude as that of industry, and even higher at peak times.
Just below that paragraph in the link is a chart titled "Aktueller Gasverbrauch..." ("Current gas usage...") with three buttons that change the chart.
The blue "Gesamt" is total - meaning households and industry (and other?).
Green "Haushalte" is households.
Red "Industrie"...should be clear.
The dotted line is the average of previous years, the gray is min/max usage in 2018-2021.Also, some gas intensive industries have already begun to, or plan to start migrating to hydrogen soon.
A lot of gas intensive industries have begun converting to hydrogen for energy generation, but the thirst for petrochemicals is well beyond just energy generation. By some estimates, the German chemical compound manufacturing industry is as much as a quarter of the German manufacturing economy. The vast majority of that being petrochemicals, polymers, industrial solvents, and petrochemical derived specialty compounds. These are not things that are going to be replaced with hydrogen.
Matt Gaetz is a Chinese propaganda ass clown
Italy is angling to become the gas hub of EU as far as I can tell. Meloni et al have been traveling across Northern Africa bolstering alliances likely aiming to buy from there and export to other EU countries. Would probably need some infrastructure renewals but they've got a lot of EU money to throw around.
This is a nice change of pace from Italy considering they're probably the most Russia loving country in all of western EU at least.
Italy is angling to become the gas hub of EU as far as I can tell. Meloni et al have been traveling across Northern Africa bolstering alliances likely aiming to buy from there and export to other EU countries. Would probably need some infrastructure renewals but they've got a lot of EU money to throw around.
This is a nice change of pace from Italy considering they're probably the most Russia loving country in all of western EU at least.
Serbia would like a word.
Suvanto wrote:Italy is angling to become the gas hub of EU as far as I can tell. Meloni et al have been traveling across Northern Africa bolstering alliances likely aiming to buy from there and export to other EU countries. Would probably need some infrastructure renewals but they've got a lot of EU money to throw around.
This is a nice change of pace from Italy considering they're probably the most Russia loving country in all of western EU at least.
Serbia would like a word.
About suddenly being moved to Western Europe? I imagine they would have a few things to say about that.
Matt Gaetz is a Chinese propaganda ass clown
The Epoch Times must be very disappointed.
A lot of gas intensive industries have begun converting to hydrogen for energy generation, but the thirst for petrochemicals is well beyond just energy generation. By some estimates, the German chemical compound manufacturing industry is as much as a quarter of the German manufacturing economy. The vast majority of that being petrochemicals, polymers, industrial solvents, and petrochemical derived specialty compounds. These are not things that are going to be replaced with hydrogen.
I'm not saying Germany/western Europe will need no natural gas soon, I'm just saying there is going to be a dramatic and permanent reduction in natural gas usage over the next 25 years.
Heck, even the gas-hungry steel industry is looking for ways to produce the necessary high temperatures via other means.
Heck, even the gas-hungry steel industry is looking for ways to produce the necessary high temperatures via other means.
Finally Trump can be put to good use!
Pages