[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Prederick wrote:

German tank manufacturer’s warning puts pressure on Ukraine’s allies

Battle tanks from German industrial reserves wanted by Ukraine will not be ready to be delivered until 2024, the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has warned, increasing pressure on Nato allies to support Ukraine with armoured vehicles in active service instead, ahead of a key meeting this week.

“Even if the decision to send our Leopard tanks to Kyiv came tomorrow, the delivery would take until the start of next year,” Rheinmetall’s chief executive, Armin Papperger, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

Rheinmetall, which manufactures the battle vehicle’s gun, has 22 Leopard 2 and 88 older Leopard 1 tanks in its stocks. Getting the Leopard tanks ready for battle, however, would take several months and cost hundreds of millions of euros the company could not put up until the order was confirmed, Papperger said.

“The vehicles must be completely dismantled and rebuilt,” he added.

instead of having to assemble them there, why not just drive them through poland instead?

That only made things worse the last time they did it.

A capable German chancelor would say "we'll front them 1-2 dozen of our active service tanks and refill our stock from the industrial reserves once they've been upgraded.

Scholz has not given me the impression that he is capable. Much of his cabinet, yes, but not him.

Putin is clear on what he wants: Rebuild the Soviet Empire as a true autocracy.

The Ukrainians are clear on what they want: a viable, independent country. All their land back. And force backed security guarantees that prevent further Russian aggression.

It is now up to us to decide what WE want. So far, I see a lot of "we don't want Ukraine to lose, but we are afraid of what will happen if they win".

The West is afraid that a collapse of Russia would result in chaos, the loss of control over nuclear material, and the loss of access to Russian raw materials. Germany, in particular, is clutching onto the faint hope that they will eventually be able to reopen their precious gas pipeline.

We all know what is right: defeat Putin and definitively put an end to his ridiculous Irredentism. It is just a question of moral courage.

Paleocon wrote:

We all know what is right: defeat Putin and definitively put an end to his ridiculous Irredentism. It is just a question of moral courage.

It's also a case of "the devil we know". When Putin and Russia do fall, there is going to be a power vacuum in their sphere of influence, and something is going to end up taking their place. It might be NATO. It might be China. Or it might be something far worse.

So, when it comes to decision-making, humans are notoriously bad at calculating risk. In the current situation, the status quo is a Russia that is doing genocide and making the case for nuclear proliferation. Pretty sure the amount of scenarios that are worse than the status quo of genocide + nuclear proliferation are down to...NATO launches nukes (lol, not even in Noam's wildest dreams) on Russia resulting in the ending of the world, Russia launching nukes on NATO resulting in the ending of the world, and the breakup of Russia resulting in nuclear terrorism, which is functionally close to the proliferation part of genocide + nuclear proliferation from a risk profile standpoint.

Why we keep dithering and trickling weapons over there instead of being proactive, acting in our long-term interests and getting this over with is bad risk calculating. IMHO.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Why we keep dithering and trickling weapons over there instead of being proactive, acting in our long-term interests and getting this over with is bad risk calculating. IMHO.

Massive "citation needed", there dude.

Except for the party about being bad at assessing risk, which you forgot to apply to yourself.

You (and me, and everyone else posting here) have zero idea of the risks of what you're proposing. None of us are geopolitical professionals. Never mind the fact that you're not proposing anything real - just some nebulous idea of "being proactive", which itself ignores the constant drumbeat of proactive actions that have been constantly being made.

Which are, unsurprisingly, a VERY risk-management based approach, designed specifically to avoid the end-states you describe.

If we consider these 300+ days of history, we can see a clear and steady rate of escalation by NATO and others.

Financial sanctions and intel. Then corporations embargo. Small arms. Drones. Towed artillery. Anti-radiation missiles. HIMARS. ATGMs. Gepards. Bradleys. Challengers.

In between, we saw the cancellation of Poland's proposed transfer of airborne assets, likely in part due to RUS threat of serious escalation.

So there has been progress in the type of aid provided although it's not as quick as everyone on UKRs side would prefer.

What's left on the table? Aircraft and more mechanised / mobile artillery, IFVs and tanks. 2023 will likely see the latter 2 flow into UKR. If this drags out to 2024 which is a real possibility, Mig29s and SU27s are probably going to be transferred. I wouldn't rule out the possibility they're sending parts over to assist with maintenance given the operational tempo.

Former Wagner Group commander who fled to Norway feared for his life

A former commander with the Russian mercenary Wagner Group who sought asylum in Norway spoke of how he feared for his life in an interview conducted last month in Russia with the Guardian.

Andrey Medvedev, 26, said that in Ukraine he had witnessed the summary killing of Wagner fighters accused by their own commanders of disobeying orders, sometimes in pairs.

After fleeing his unit, he crossed the border into Norway near the Pasvikdalen valley shortly before 2am local time last Friday, where he was arrested and detained by border guards.

“He has applied for asylum in Norway,” said Tarjei Sirma-Tellefsen, the chief of staff for the police in Finnmark, northern Norway.

Medvedev is the first known soldier from the Wagner Group who fought in Ukraine to flee abroad.

Rat Boy wrote:

That only made things worse the last time they did it.

lol

It looks like Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine is having geopolitical impacts throughout Central and East Asia. China, even despite a significant recession, is accelerating its investment in the "Middle Corridor" -- an infrastructure project aiming to bypass both Russia and Iran for access to Europe through the Stans to Turkey across the Caspian Sea. It would be the most ambitious investment in their "Belt and Road" project to date and is likely to to discomfit a lot of folks in Europe, America, Russia, and India. Depending on how poorly Ukraine goes for Putin, I can see it having very serious impacts for Russian puppet states like South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or even their interests in Nagorno-Karabakh. I can see Putin attempting to utilize his "separatists" to try to sabotage the project. I can also see the Chinese spending a lot of money on mercenaries to wage a dirty war complete with methods very characteristic of Wagner wankers.

This is going to get interesting.

Where are all the "Little Green Men" that enabled the takeover of Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk? Evaporated in the first few months of the war? Or held back by the FSB for internal security?

Robear wrote:

Where are all the "Little Green Men" that enabled the takeover of Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk? Evaporated in the first few months of the war? Or held back by the FSB for internal security?

My guess is that they put their real uniforms back on and joined the invasion in February.

Keldar wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

We all know what is right: defeat Putin and definitively put an end to his ridiculous Irredentism. It is just a question of moral courage.

It's also a case of "the devil we know". When Putin and Russia do fall, there is going to be a power vacuum in their sphere of influence, and something is going to end up taking their place. It might be NATO. It might be China. Or it might be something far worse.

ChiNATO?

Berlin will allow exports of German tanks to Ukraine if U.S. sends its tanks -source

Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia if the United States agrees to send its own tanks, a German government source told Reuters.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stressed the stipulation several times in recent days behind closed doors, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Western allies will meet at a U.S. air base in Germany on Friday to offer more weapons for Ukraine.

Attention is focused in particular on Germany, which has veto power over any decision to send its Leopard tanks, fielded by NATO-allied armies across Europe and widely seen as the most suitable for Ukraine.

Polish President Andrzej Duda told attendees at an economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday that he was afraid Russia was preparing a new offensive in Ukraine within months and it was therefore crucial to provide additional support to the Kyiv government with modern tanks and missiles.

Which tanks?

I may have lived long enough to see the chickening out of war jokes shift from France to Germany.

Rat Boy wrote:

I may have lived long enough to see the chickening out of war jokes shift from France to Germany.

Sausage-eating appeasement monkeys!

Rat Boy wrote:

I may have lived long enough to see the chickening out of war jokes shift from France to Germany.

Wait, when did we stop mocking the Italians for making tanks with five reverse gears but only one forward gear?

Jonman wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

I may have lived long enough to see the chickening out of war jokes shift from France to Germany.

Wait, when did we stop mocking the Italians for making tanks with five reverse gears but only one forward gear?

Which, ironically, is a huge feature of German tanks and IFV's.

The vehicle is powered by an MTU MB 833 Ea-500 six-cylinder liquid-cooled diesel engine which delivers approximately 441 kW (600 PS; 591 hp) at 2,200 rpm. The cooling radiators are mounted at the rear of the hull, either side of the exit ramp. The engine is coupled to a Renk four speed HSWL 194 planetary gear box, with four forward and four reverse gears. The transmission also provides steering and braking via a stepless hydrostatic unit, which transmits power to two drive units mounted at the front of the hull. The vehicle carries 652 liters of fuel, giving it a road range of around 500 kilometers. Early Marders could achieve a road speed of 75 km/h in 4th gear, but the extra armour of later vehicles reduced this to 65 km/h.

A friend of mine made the observation that the appointment of Gerasimov to as supreme commander is relevant for reasons we tend to ignore in the west.

Keep in mind that his most important contribution to military scholarship is his creation of what is known as the Gerasimov Doctrine, which effectively defines the terms of hybrid conflict. And in that sense, his conduct in this invasion is likely to follow that doctrine.

that doctrine dictates that victory comes from properly identifying the enemy's center of gravity and attacking it through whatever means necessary. And knowing Gerasimov, he is likely to have figured out that that center of gravity resides not in Ukrainian morale (which his predecessor incorrectly though it was), but with foreign support.

He will focus his efforts militarily to try to undermine foreign support for the war. Particularly that of Germany (the weakest link), and the US (the most important one).

Keep your eyes open for concerted Russian attempts to feature destroyed or captured American equipment in the information space so as to give cover to purchased assets like Matt Gaetz or Marjorie Taylor Greene for their f*ckery in Congress.

Thanks for that analysis, Paleo. Good insight.

Do you really think seeing blown up Bradleys or Abrams in Ukraine is going to move the needle in the US? Short of dead American soldiers, I just can't see MTG, Gaetz, or Tucker convince enough Americans to contact their reps over it.

JLS wrote:

Do you really think seeing blown up Bradley's or Abrams in Ukraine is going to move the needle in the US? Short of dead American soldiers, I just can't see MTG, Gaetz, or Tucker convince enough Americans to contact their reps over it.

They'll stick with the "why are we helping Ukraine secure their borders when our southern border is completely open" lie along with a healthy dose of purposeful misinformation that will focus on the retail price of the military aid we're providing rather than the more accurate "Y'all's taxes paid for this sh*t like 15-20 years ago and you've been paying to store it in the desert for years. And you're already paying to make the things that will replace the stuff we're giving Ukraine because it's that old."

I'm sure Russia will try to feature destroy US equipment, but they've already claimed that several Bradley's were destroyed back in September and say they've destroyed like 200% of the HIMARS we've provided. I don't see pics of destroyed Bradley's move the domestic needle because there's been pretty much zero reaction to the loss of other American equipment we've provided, including over 30 M777s, dozens of M113s, and like 75+ Humvees. It's war. sh*t breaks and gets destroyed.

And, like you said, there'll be no dead American soldiers. But it is troubling to see how much and quickly Republican support for Ukraine has cratered in recent months.

JLS wrote:

Do you really think seeing blown up Bradleys or Abrams in Ukraine is going to move the needle in the US? Short of dead American soldiers, I just can't see MTG, Gaetz, or Tucker convince enough Americans to contact their reps over it.

If Russia somehow kills American troops, regardless of where they are, there's going to be a very vocal faction demanding that we immediately arm the nukes. There are entire generations in this country who grew up being taught that Russia was The Enemy, and if American troops get killed by Russians that's going to trigger a whole lot of indoctrinated feelings.

OG_slinger wrote:

And, like you said, there'll be no dead American soldiers. But it is troubling to see how much and quickly Republican support for Ukraine has cratered in recent months.

FWIW, back during Obama, by polling, Republicans preferred Putin to him. This is just downstream of that.

Keldar wrote:

If Russia somehow kills American troops, regardless of where they are, there's going to be a very vocal faction demanding that we immediately arm the nukes. There are entire generations in this country who grew up being taught that Russia was The Enemy, and if American troops get killed by Russians that's going to trigger a whole lot of indoctrinated feelings.

Oh, I think you'll be shocked by the things Tucker/OANN/Newsmax will say.

At this point, I am convinced that the Republican love for Putin is deeply cultural. There is far greater alignment of first principles between Putin’s regressive, cruel, authoritarian, entitled, and aggrieved rhetoric and the Republican Party’s than there is with democracy. They agree on the same axioms and wish to see a similar world. They might disagree on who’s foot is in the boot and who’s neck it’s on, but they hear his speeches and ask themselves “why can’t we have more of that”.

Ukraine frustrated as Germany holds back decision on supply of tanks

Germany has declined to take a decision on whether to give Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine at a special international summit, prompting frustration in Kyiv and a warning from Poland that lives could be lost because of hesitation in Berlin.

It had been hoped in Europe and the US that Germany would at least allow Leopards owned by countries such as Poland and Finland to be re-exported, but despite days of pleading, Berlin’s newly appointed defence minister said no final decision had been taken.

Instead, Boris Pistorius said on the sidelines of the 50-nation meeting at the Ramstein US air force base in Germany on Friday that he had asked his ministry to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available.

Gosh darn it, I'm a hippie, peace-loving pacifist who thinks war is wack but what good is an internet forum if you can't post jokes about it?

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/LMZylXe.jpg)

Prederick wrote:
Germany has declined to take a decision on whether to give Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine at a special international summit, prompting frustration in Kyiv and a warning from Poland that lives could be lost because of hesitation in Berlin.

It had been hoped in Europe and the US that Germany would at least allow Leopards owned by countries such as Poland and Finland to be re-exported, but despite days of pleading, Berlin’s newly appointed defence minister said no final decision had been taken.

Instead, Boris Pistorius said on the sidelines of the 50-nation meeting at the Ramstein US air force base in Germany on Friday that he had asked his ministry to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available.

Not surprised, but very frustrated and a little angry myself....

@Montalban - that is just plain awful but I love it!