[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

AUs_TBirD wrote:

Translated thread on the Marder if anyone is interested. Details advantages (reverse almost as fast as forward movement is interesting)

Is it built on a French chassis?

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OK, no more surrender-monkey jokes from me.

I know it's fun to joke.

There was also a world where FRA acquits themselves quite well in 1939 if they'd been more responsive to the bypassing of the Maginot Line. The popular notion is that the Wehrmacht was this unstoppable machine and it simply was not. FRA had their chances to counterattack and the generals just didn't do it. There were many examples of supreme heroism fighting the Nazis. Their tactics were sound. The top line leadership? Eh...

Also, if the whole country had gotten behind, "no surrender" as a concept, they could have saved some honor. As it was, Vichy forces buddied up with GER in the Med and even in the East.

It looks like disgraced Russian general Aleksandr Lapin is now back on top. Promoted to Russian Military Chief of Staff.

I guess between HIMARS and faulty Russian window construction, they are running out of staff officers.

Russia’s Wagner group fighting ‘heavy, bloody battles’ for control of Soledar

Talk today appears to be that Russia has pretty much finished taking Soledar. Most analysis I've seen argues that it's not actually that valuable, but that the Kremlin is going to treat it like they just conquered Kiev.

It probably does disrupt an important supply route for Bakhmut.

Surovikin has been removed.

Paleocon wrote:

Surovikin has been removed.

What's his new job, drummer for Spinal Tap?

Hope he's got a garden apartment, for his sake.

CaptainCrowbar wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Surovikin has been removed.

What's his new job, drummer for Spinal Tap?

After Kevin McCarthy.

Robear wrote:

Hope he's got a garden apartment, for his sake.

ever fall out of a window onto a Russian garden rake?

I read somewhere that the staggering mortality of Russian oligarchs may not all be siloviki instigated. Apparently, the chaos caused by the war is resulting in competing factions looking to capitalize on opportunities. So some of what we are witnessing may just be normal Russian stuff with a touch of desperation. Also, there are a lot of oligarchs that have lost their life savings as a result of the sanctions and are unlikely to ever earn it back. So many of these balcony divers may be sincere.

So, Soledar might "fall" but I can't even begin to fathom the generational trauma that Bakhmut is going to leave on both the Ukrainian and Russian troops.

The death toll to take Soledar is going to be obscene.

It's just...

...I mean, maverickz talked about this, and I've heard it in other places. I am fundamentally incapable of understanding the nihilistic mindset of the Russian population that knows that they're being used as cannon fodder for a corrupt military, and the response is pretty much "...yeah, that's just how it is."

Prederick wrote:

It's just...

...I mean, maverickz talked about this, and I've heard it in other places. I am fundamentally incapable of understanding the nihilistic mindset of the Russian population that knows that they're being used as cannon fodder for a corrupt military, and the response is pretty much "...yeah, that's just how it is."

I mean, Nikolai talked about this, and I've heard it in other places. I am fundamentally incapable of understanding the nihilistic mindset of the American population that knows they're being used as cannon fodder for a corrupt set of corporations, and the response is pretty much "...yeah, that's just how it is."

Badferret wrote:

So, Soledar might "fall" but I can't even begin to fathom the generational trauma that Bakhmut is going to leave on both the Ukrainian and Russian troops.

The death toll to take Soledar is going to be obscene.

The Russian troops will be absolutely fine because they aren't in Soledar or Bakhmut. It's all Wagner troops (aka prisoners).

And Wagner is spending those lives very freely. This is a translation of a Ukrainian officer about how Wagnerite have been attacking in Soledar:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/5zvbVSb.png)

Any Ukrainian position is methodically identified, suppressed, and zerg rushed by waves of Wagnerites. There's literally vids and pics of fields of bodies of Wagnerites who were mowed down over the past weeks trying.

It's only Ukrainian troops who are going to have to deal with both the fact they slaughtered thousands of dumbasses who attacked like zombies and who had the best of them killed in the same assaults. Shows why the US should divert any undestroyed cluster munitions to Ukraine to do what they were designed, manufactured, and intended to do: efficiently kill lots of Russians.

I have been thinking about this whole "too escalatory" business lately.

WW2 officially started when Hitler invaded Poland but he was up to his f*ckery earlier with Czechoslovakia and the like. His actions were specifically geared towards a worldwide conflict. It is probably fair to say that Hitler started his war for global conquest long before the world recognized they were at war.

Putin’s stated victory conditions were “demilitarization” and “denazification” of UKR. The latter meaning the destruction of Ukrainian sovereignty. He also stated that it was to intimidate NATO and hasten the demise of the US world order. He reiterated these goals in his New Years address.

He has laid out his "Mein Kampf" agenda and it is all about putting 300 million non-Russians under his fascist heel. Putin has already started ww3.

We just need to decide if we’re going to fight back

Prederick wrote:

It's just...

...I mean, maverickz talked about this, and I've heard it in other places. I am fundamentally incapable of understanding the nihilistic mindset of the Russian population that knows that they're being used as cannon fodder for a corrupt military, and the response is pretty much "...yeah, that's just how it is."

Saw some analysis by some Eastern European folks that broke it down this way:

RUS culture is broken, as a result of centuries of oppression, hardship and many other contributing factors.
The culture appears to be focused on "might makes right." There is not an objective right or wrong, determined by, say, a legal system that at least aspires toward truth and justice.
Instead, when two parties make an agreement, and then one party takes advantage of the other, by breaking a contract or just abusing the other party, the mindset appears to be, "Well, you were victimized because you were weak. It is only natural that the stronger party took advantage of you." The stronger party is admired for their 'bottom line' approach and the victim is mocked.

Since we're coming up on MLK weekend, contrast how King fought for civil rights (fairness, equality, solidarity, etc) and how that succeeded in making political gains in a democracy. Now look at how Navalny speaks in RUS (ultra nationalist language, "otherizing" language for minority populations - to include referring to them as cockroaches, etc).

Got to spike that vein with that sweet, sweet Russian blood gas

UK to send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, Rishi Sunak confirms

UK is sending 12 Challenger 2s to Ukraine. Four immediately and eight to follow quickly thereafter.

Looks like the Western military aid dam has burst and all eyes will now turn to Germany to, at a minimum, finally give permission to the countries that want to give Ukraine their Leopard tanks.

And, speaking of Germany, it looks like their defense minister is about to get sh*tcanned. Hopefully her replacement will be more forceful and resolute in their support of Ukraine.

While I don't think Lambrecht did a particularly good job, the blockade regarding tanks (and other equipment) seems to primarily be coming from Olaf Scholz's office directly.

The feeling I'm getting is that it's just a matter of time. Rumor has it, the green light for Leopard tanks (at least for those countries wanting to send them) will be given by the 20th, since international pressure is now too high to ignore anymore.

It's great that Ukraine is getting all of this stuff, but their logistics and maintenance is going to be a nightmare with getting stuff from so many different countries.

If there is anything that we have learned from this whole debacle, it is that just because Capitalism "won" the Cold War, it doesn't mean that folks would stop playing the game of geopolitics. No one was more invested in that falsehood than the German Social Democrats. They have consistently doubled down on the idea that economic power was all that was necessary in a post-Soviet world. To this end, they fostered questionable relationships with some awful leaders in an attempt to be politically relevant. They laundered Russian siloviki money. They bullied Eastern European nations into accepting a gas pipeline that undermined their security. They downplayed the seriousness of Russian aggression in places like Donbas, Crimea, and the Baltic states. They did this because they thought it would provide them independence from American influence in a world economy dominated by a post Breton Woods system.

Putin is a monster they participated in creating. And the promise of political relevance, however faint and fleeting, still tempts them to undermine the actions they know are necessary. They long for a return to a pre-February status quo where they get their blood gas and Russian oligarch money even if it means that the worst human rights offenses Europe has seen since the Nazis goes largely unaddressed and Putin's dream of Russian Irredentism lives and festers for another future opportunity.

These are the worst of moral cowards. They are traitors to humanity.

Nevin73 wrote:

It's great that Ukraine is getting all of this stuff, but their logistics and maintenance is going to be a nightmare with getting stuff from so many different countries.

Going to be?

They're already fielding a hodge-podge of NATO and Eastern gear, vehicles, and weapons and the NATO donations--especially vehicles and heavy weapons--have all needed their own logistics and maintenance stream to keep them running.

When this is all said and done and Ukraine is victorious I can't wait to read the stories the Ukrainian logistics guys and how they kept sh*t flowing and working.

OG_slinger wrote:
Nevin73 wrote:

It's great that Ukraine is getting all of this stuff, but their logistics and maintenance is going to be a nightmare with getting stuff from so many different countries.

Going to be?

They're already fielding a hodge-podge of NATO and Eastern gear, vehicles, and weapons and the NATO donations--especially vehicles and heavy weapons--have all needed their own logistics and maintenance stream to keep them running.

When this is all said and done and Ukraine is victorious I can't wait to read the stories the Ukrainian logistics guys and how they kept sh*t flowing and working.

I read somewhere that a lot of that is being market directed. Apparently Ukrainian Craigslist is a hotbed for the military barter economy. Units have been trading everything from boots to helicopters.

When this is all said and done and Ukraine is victorious I can't wait to read the stories the Ukrainian logistics guys and how they kept sh*t flowing and working.

Cocaine Fighting for your survival is a hell of a drug!

Yea there is no option where they surrender and Russia becomes a benevolent overlord that lifts them up and brings prosperity.

Jonman wrote:
Prederick wrote:

It's just...

...I mean, maverickz talked about this, and I've heard it in other places. I am fundamentally incapable of understanding the nihilistic mindset of the Russian population that knows that they're being used as cannon fodder for a corrupt military, and the response is pretty much "...yeah, that's just how it is."

I mean, Nikolai talked about this, and I've heard it in other places. I am fundamentally incapable of understanding the nihilistic mindset of the American population that knows they're being used as cannon fodder for a corrupt set of corporations, and the response is pretty much "...yeah, that's just how it is."

Who is Nikolai?

Perun made the point that a lot of the Republican caterwauling about how much money we are spending on the Ukraine war is (shocker) disingenuous. Part of that has to do with the fact that the accounting used in the media is for the full ticket price of equipment we are sending there -- Equipment that is mostly either retired, mothballed, or scheduled for obsolescence. In most cases, the real cost of this kind of aid is the transport cost involved in getting the materiel to the Polish frontier. And in all such cases, the long term costs amount to a net savings as the recurring costs of storage and maintenance are eliminated.

So when you hear a f*cker Carlson listening useful idiot whine about "billions and billions", politely tell him to eat a bag of dicks.

German tank manufacturer’s warning puts pressure on Ukraine’s allies

Battle tanks from German industrial reserves wanted by Ukraine will not be ready to be delivered until 2024, the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has warned, increasing pressure on Nato allies to support Ukraine with armoured vehicles in active service instead, ahead of a key meeting this week.

“Even if the decision to send our Leopard tanks to Kyiv came tomorrow, the delivery would take until the start of next year,” Rheinmetall’s chief executive, Armin Papperger, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

Rheinmetall, which manufactures the battle vehicle’s gun, has 22 Leopard 2 and 88 older Leopard 1 tanks in its stocks. Getting the Leopard tanks ready for battle, however, would take several months and cost hundreds of millions of euros the company could not put up until the order was confirmed, Papperger said.

“The vehicles must be completely dismantled and rebuilt,” he added.