[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Speaking of fascist autocrats....

Bolsonaro- Speaking at a news conference while on vacation....

Brazil's Bolsonaro refuses to sanction Russia, says Ukrainians- trusted a comedian with the fate of a nation, adding that Brazil would "adopt a neutral stance on Ukraine" and will not impose sanctions on Russia.

He also pointed out that Brazil is dependent on Russian fertilizer, and that action against Moscow "could bring serious harm to agriculture in Brazil." He added that he was in support of peace — "but we don't want to bring more problems to Brazil."

When questioned about a possible massacre in Ukraine, Bolsonaro said it was "an exaggeration to speak of massacre," and defended Russia’s move to recognize the pro-Moscow separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as independent.

Was reading (Twitter, think-tank person, so grain of salt) that this invasion is costing Putin $20bb/day, which is maybe 1% of RUS GDP. Per day.

The longer this goes the worse it gets for Russia. And I'm not feeling real good about Putin's logic. It's like we've snapped back to the 18th century overnight but now we've got modern weapons, millions more people and f*cking nukes.

The way these autocrats are acting is like it's 1939 again and now's the time to Get Hype for war. A silver lining from this may be democracies getting their strength on and having more robust defensive postures for deterrence.

Zelensky is the perfect symbol for what good democratic leadership needs to be. No more self-dealing elites that can't spell honor or responsibility.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Was reading (Twitter, think-tank person, so grain of salt) that this invasion is costing Putin $20bb/day, which is maybe 1% of RUS GDP. Per day.

I saw that figure, too.

But there's no way it's costing Russia $20 billion a day. We were dropping $20+ billion a month for Iraq and Afghanistan.

I could see this costing Russia 20 billion rubles a day, which is a couple hundred million dollars.

But, yeah, this invasion is expensive for Russia and they no longer have the money for it.

Top_Shelf wrote:

A silver lining from this may be democracies getting their strength on and having more robust defensive postures for deterrence.

As long as that robust defensive posture doesn't entail MORE military spending, sure. Otherwise we're going to end up with yet another arms race and the stability of some of our world leaders doesn't seem to be what it once was...

JC wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

A silver lining from this may be democracies getting their strength on and having more robust defensive postures for deterrence.

As long as that robust defensive posture doesn't entail MORE military spending, sure. Otherwise we're going to end up with yet another arms race and the stability of some of our world leaders doesn't seem to be what it once was...

I'm surprised Trump hasn't taken credit for NATO members finally increasing their defense spending.

From the looks of it, the tip of the Russian spear was the highly touted "Z force" and the Chechen Commandos. Both featured heavily in the first two waves of assaults on Kyiv with the stated aim of decapitating the Ukrainian government.

The northern suburbs are now littered with incinerated armored vehicles with Z's painted on them and the Russians have admitted that Chechen General Magomed Tushayev was killed when his 53 vehicle armored column evaporated when hit by Ukrainian ATGMs.

That was the best Putin had to offer. Now it is waves of unwilling conscripts.

IMAGE(https://c.tenor.com/puWgdMWM4dsAAAAC/erik-killmonger-is-this-your-king.gif)

OG_slinger wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

Was reading (Twitter, think-tank person, so grain of salt) that this invasion is costing Putin $20bb/day, which is maybe 1% of RUS GDP. Per day.

I saw that figure, too.

But there's no way it's costing Russia $20 billion a day. We were dropping $20+ billion a month for Iraq and Afghanistan.

I could see this costing Russia 20 billion rubles a day, which is a couple hundred million dollars.

But, yeah, this invasion is expensive for Russia and they no longer have the money for it.

I was going to say...$20 billion per day isn't buying a lot of gas and food for the troops, is it?

Nevin73 wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

Was reading (Twitter, think-tank person, so grain of salt) that this invasion is costing Putin $20bb/day, which is maybe 1% of RUS GDP. Per day.

I saw that figure, too.

But there's no way it's costing Russia $20 billion a day. We were dropping $20+ billion a month for Iraq and Afghanistan.

I could see this costing Russia 20 billion rubles a day, which is a couple hundred million dollars.

But, yeah, this invasion is expensive for Russia and they no longer have the money for it.

I was going to say...$20 billion per day isn't buying a lot of gas and food for the troops, is it?

I think what makes part of this believable is that the Russian economy isn't exactly self sustaining. It really produces nothing of significance other than petrochemicals and organized crime. As such, the prosecution of a war that turns the country into an international pariah requires that the country go to a war economy. This means even just making sure the lights stay on is a "war expense".

Well put.

Is that number accounting for the costs incurred by the sanctions as well?

Zelensky has apparently signed an application to the EU.

Vladimir Putin is the Charlie Zelanoff of world leaders

still heroes.

Ukraine has asked for immediate EU membership, saying it is defending its values.

Robear wrote:

Ukraine has asked for immediate EU membership, saying it is defending its values. :-)

Ugh- Such a mess. Hard to argue that they shouldn't be admitted. And hard to see how that could actually happen. Is there any course of events short of a nuclear strike by Russia that would get them admitted?

I suspect this serves several purposes, chief among them being added justification to continue supplying arms, advice, and logistics as well as a large bargaining chip on the table for Putin to save face without Ukraine giving up something it has already.

edit: You know, in addition to the actual stated reason of attempting to join the EU for many other economic and geopolitical reasons.

IMAGE(https://i.ibb.co/r5NRdj3/IMG-20220228-131644.jpg)

JLS wrote:

I'm surprised Trump hasn't taken credit for NATO members finally increasing their defense spending.

OG_slinger wrote:

IMAGE(https://i.ibb.co/r5NRdj3/IMG-20220228-131644.jpg)

I regret putting that out there.

JLS wrote:
JLS wrote:

I'm surprised Trump hasn't taken credit for NATO members finally increasing their defense spending.

OG_slinger wrote:

IMAGE(https://i.ibb.co/r5NRdj3/IMG-20220228-131644.jpg)

I regret putting that out there.

Don't feel too bad. He also took credit for giving Ukraine Javelins even though Congress did that and he illegally withheld them in an attempt to blackmail Zelenskyy to give him dirt in Biden.

At this point Zelenskyy isn't making a case to enter the EU. He is making a case to become its next president.

So I am watching a clip where it is being stated that Putin underestimated the US, NATO, Europe and the Ukraine.

In the interest of the prediction roots of this thread, I want to posit some 4D chess.
Putin underestimated China. China obviously saw a situation to cause havok with potential boons to its interests with minimal effort on their part. If Putin succeeds to some degree, we've all talked about bolstering the repercussions that China could invade Taiwan.

But, China also could have huge wins either way if they embolden Putin to fall on his face. You can't tell me that China would not reap benefits of a weakened/crippled Russia. If only it would just further cement China's prominence in the region, it would be huge. But think of all the projects China is pursuing, like revitalizing the golden road, that can be even more ambitious free from considerations of their Soviet neighbors.

And if Putin falls and Russia returns to more democratic government, I would be very leery of the pressure of newfound interest in relationships from China when stabilizing Russia.

You're thinking China could clientize Russia through debt? Very interesting.

In case anyone else was wondering, Nze from a few pages back got into Poland. He also clarified that the Ukranian people they encountered on the way were helpful and generous, it was just the Ukranian police that gave them trouble. Because racist cops aren't just an American problem.

OG_slinger wrote:

Trump spouts garbage....

God, what a f*cking imbecile. Is there any other former president that refers to himself as "45th President"?

JC wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

Trump spouts garbage....

God, what a f*cking imbecile. Is there any other former president that refers to himself as "45th President"?

well... I don't think the 44th or the 46th can claim that title.

I predicted this before the start, but tanks are at the end of their shelf life.

Ukraine doesn't even have many TB2s yet.

Badferret wrote:

I predicted this before the start, but tanks are at the end of their shelf life.

Ukraine doesn't even have many TB2s yet.

Particularly if you aren't able to climb the superiority ladder.

If you don't rule the air, you can't refuel and refit and those Russian tanks are not going more than 60km before they run out of gas. As it is starting to look, Putin's army didn't bring enough tankers to begin with so blowing up anyone of them is going to severely degrade their ability to keep their vehicles on the move.

Ukrainian police and bureaucrats are also pervasively corrupt. Around 40% of the country regards corruption as "part of the social tradition" of the country. They are second only to Russia in the region, actually.