[Discussion] Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency! Either it's going to disrupt everything and usher in a new era of artistic and consumer freedom, or it'll hasten the climate apocalypse while largely benefitting a tiny number of investors. Let's yell about it!

maverickz wrote:

The idea that the dollar, or the US itself, will suddenly collapse in the next 5, 10, or 20 years is utter fantasy.

All of this should be bolded.

The cruel irony for all the folks wishing the downfall of the US is that a collapse of the global systems the US has set up might inconvenience America, but it would absolutely cornhole the rest of the world.

The United States because of WHERE it is (not who it is) enjoys structural advantages that pretty much make it immune to global instability. It has two oceans separating it from its nearest capable competitor. It has natural resources sufficient to fuel its continued growth and prosperity. It enjoys borders with two friendly if not downright affectionate neighbors who constitute over 70% of its international trade. It has a river system that constitutes nearly 1/3 of the world's navigable inland freight networks. It has command over 1/3 of the world's fresh water. And it neighbors countries with growing demographics that can fuel the American labor force into the foreseeable future.

Even if the US decides to stop playing Vice Principal to the world and pulls back to its 1941 isolationist policies, Americans will be fine. It will suck not getting cheap sh*t at Walmart, but we will be fine. China, otoh, will fall into flesh eating anarchy as will most of East Asia. The Middle East and South Asia will be seas of radioactive glass. Who knows what fresh hell Europe will be? But the US is playing Civ in cheat mode.

Paleocon wrote:
maverickz wrote:

The idea that the dollar, or the US itself, will suddenly collapse in the next 5, 10, or 20 years is utter fantasy.

All of this should be bolded.

The cruel irony for all the folks wishing the downfall of the US is that a collapse of the global systems the US has set up might inconvenience America, but it would absolutely cornhole the rest of the world.

The United States because of WHERE it is (not who it is) enjoys structural advantages that pretty much make it immune to global instability. It has two oceans separating it from its nearest capable competitor. It has natural resources sufficient to fuel its continued growth and prosperity. It enjoys borders with two friendly if not downright affectionate neighbors who constitute over 70% of its international trade. It has a river system that constitutes nearly 1/3 of the world's navigable inland freight networks. It has command over 1/3 of the world's fresh water. And it neighbors countries with growing demographics that can fuel the American labor force into the foreseeable future.

Even if the US decides to stop playing Vice Principal to the world and pulls back to its 1941 isolationist policies, Americans will be fine. It will suck not getting cheap sh*t at Walmart, but we will be fine. China, otoh, will fall into flesh eating anarchy as will most of East Asia. The Middle East and South Asia will be seas of radioactive glass. Who knows what fresh hell Europe will be? But the US is playing Civ in cheat mode.

Any sense of how bad things will get for US citizens before they fight back, if ever? Or are we poors just fu-ked from the go forever?

Depends on what you mean by fighting back. There seems to be some building momentum in organized labor.

Would also remind that not only does USA have all the advantages Paleo outlines, think about other competitors.

What does China have, exactly, besides lots of human capital? It shares a border with (lol) "Russia" and has mountains keeping India at bay. And then a whole bunch of smaller kid brother countries in the western Pacific that really don't like it. And not like how US conservatives rail against Mexico. Like, fund a bigger military and cozy up to the USA.

I say all this not out of some jingoistic appeal to patriotism. Rather, I say it so that Americans can wake up, understand we have many advantages and have a responsibility to prepare our fellow humans to stop global climate change, wars of aggression and generally bad behavior by states.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Would also remind that not only does USA have all the advantages Paleo outlines, think about other competitors.

What does China have, exactly, besides lots of human capital? It shares a border with (lol) "Russia" and has mountains keeping India at bay. And then a whole bunch of smaller kid brother countries in the western Pacific that really don't like it. And not like how US conservatives rail against Mexico. Like, fund a bigger military and cozy up to the USA.

I say all this not out of some jingoistic appeal to patriotism. Rather, I say it so that Americans can wake up, understand we have many advantages and have a responsibility to prepare our fellow humans to stop global climate change, wars of aggression and generally bad behavior by states.

Among the many problems China faces (and they are all very significant), primary among them is the issue of demographics. They are in uncharted historical territory in that they are the first country that is growing old before it grows rich. They simply don't have the generation of younger workers that can support either the expected social services or economic expansion the country needs in order to maintain national cohesiveness or order. The social contract for the last 30 years has been one in which Chinese people would tolerate the inconvenience and corruption of the CCP so long as standards of living continue to improve. That, however, is coming to an abrupt end.

The vaunted Chinese "human capital" is no longer a competitive advantage. As the workers age out of the system, wages will inflate. They are already higher than you will find in Vietnam, Cambodia, and other parts of SE Asia and the value of their manufacturing is not high enough to compete with the likes of Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Europe, or the US. In a lot of ways, I think we are looking at peak China either now or in the next 5-10 years.

Their banking systems and the tethering of pretty much all public debt to their real estate bubble is going to experience a significant implosion as well. All of that was dependent on 9+% annual GDP growth and as that slows down, it will become clear exactly how much of it was a pure momentum play.

PS. I spoke with the sustainability officer at my company a few weeks ago and I mentioned how crypto was basically a needless environmental disaster. He responded by saying that when China banned crypto mining, their energy use dropped by enough to power a medium sized Central Asian republic.

maverickz wrote:

The idea that the dollar, or the US itself, will suddenly collapse in the next 5, 10, or 20 years is utter fantasy.

I do agree that a sudden melodramatic collapse is highly unlikely and more of a fantasy than anything else.

However, I would also argue that the US already has been in the early stage of a collapse for several years, though it would be an exercise in futility to quibble over any specific catalyst or inflection point.

That said, just because a nation enters an early stage of collapse doesn't mean it will inevitably go through the entire process. The years leading up to the Civil War were an early stage of collapse as well, and even though the US proceeded to the point of outright civil war, we did eventually succeed in recovering from that. I would argue, though, that much of our decades of relative stability in the "American Century" were a result of our mobilization for two world wars and the international prestige, soft power, and economic influence we built up as a consequence of our involvement and mobilization for those two world wars.

Essentially that's the crux of the stress for many of us. Anyone who isn't at least upper-middle class is definitely starting to feel the effects of this early stage of collapse, and some of those in the upper-middle or higher are beginning to feel it a bit as well. Additional complication stems from the simple fact that human civilization as a whole is feeling the impacts of epochal climate shift and early biosphere collapse. Is it too late to stop the US from collapsing in the coming decades? No, certainly not. Is it too late to preserve the Subatlantic Holocene climate? A growing plurality of climatologists think it is, which is terrifying. To that point, the process is already underway in the international scientific bodies that define and refine geological (and thus climate) epochs to define the end of the Holocene entirely, with a subsequent Anthropocene epoch already underway.

I think most people read that and their immediate response is "oh that's just silly scientists, always wanting to come up with new names and definitions" rather than "oh sh*t, epochal divisions are actually quite substantial and delineate major distinctions in climate, geology, and the biosphere; maybe this is actually serious enough that we should reconsider how our civilization both impacts and is impacted by this planet".

TL;DR - Most of the nations in the world are experiencing some early form of collapse right now, including the US. We should take our response to this seriously rather than handwaving it away as fantasy or alarmism.

“Collapse” probably isn’t the right word for it because it has connotations of it being a fast, sudden state change. Dying nations very rarely collapse, they tend to just a gradually unravel and disintegrate until either something else takes over or they find a way to rejuvenate themselves/reach equilibrium.

Paleocon wrote:

Depends on what you mean by fighting back. There seems to be some building momentum in organized labor.

Either real systemic reform at home that will improve the lot of people or the rise of a movement and or organization dedicated to its overthrow or replacement by any means necessary.

Annnd yeah. I know how this sounds. It sounds childish, but I keep reading things about how 68 percent of US citizens are like 3 months or one minor medical crisis away from homelessness, about how a lot of Americans #1 desire is to go to the dentist. Its sickening. Its like we're cattle being driven down a chute to the dude with the nail gun.

Crypto will unravel faster than the US economy.

The money is already gone. People are in the process of discovering that they didn't lose their money when whichever casino/exchange they bought into collapsed. The money was lost when they bought the crypto currency.

I recommend Attack of the 50' Blockchain to help explain why all crypto is bad and wrong.

Drazzil wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Depends on what you mean by fighting back. There seems to be some building momentum in organized labor.

Either real systemic reform at home that will improve the lot of people or the rise of a movement and or organization dedicated to its overthrow or replacement by any means necessary.

Annnd yeah. I know how this sounds. It sounds childish, but I keep reading things about how 68 percent of US citizens are like 3 months or one minor medical crisis away from homelessness, about how a lot of Americans #1 desire is to go to the dentist. Its sickening. Its like we're cattle being driven down a chute to the dude with the nail gun.

The last time we had such a meaningful, positive sea change in American politics was the civil rights era. The current era we are in is, in large part, a continuation of the Reagan backlash. If you look at the tools the Civil Rights folks used, they are mostly being utilized by the backlash folks more effectively than progressives are using theirs.

If you want that kind of meaningful change, it requires the kind of sustained, thankless grinding that brought us the gains we got in the 60's. That grinding is noticeably lacking in today's Left.

I keep saying this, but it keeps bearing repeating. Recruit local candidates. Research ALL of your candidates in your primaries. Raise money. Campaign. Organize donors and voters into PACs. Use those PACs to influence your representatives. Hold your representatives to account and move their positions. Build your own third rails and energize them. Until you have exhausted these options (not just voting and complaining about it), you're skipping right to defeatism and despair.

We aren't a perfect democracy, but there are literally people dying in China and Russia for the rights we possess here.

The US won't be fine.. we are just as vulnerable if not more so to climate change than everybody else..

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/aChVfo4.jpeg)

Investors: "Ah yes, the very rare seven-legged spider. A bargain at that price!"

Paleocon wrote:
Drazzil wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Depends on what you mean by fighting back. There seems to be some building momentum in organized labor.

Either real systemic reform at home that will improve the lot of people or the rise of a movement and or organization dedicated to its overthrow or replacement by any means necessary.

Annnd yeah. I know how this sounds. It sounds childish, but I keep reading things about how 68 percent of US citizens are like 3 months or one minor medical crisis away from homelessness, about how a lot of Americans #1 desire is to go to the dentist. Its sickening. Its like we're cattle being driven down a chute to the dude with the nail gun.

The last time we had such a meaningful, positive sea change in American politics was the civil rights era. The current era we are in is, in large part, a continuation of the Reagan backlash. If you look at the tools the Civil Rights folks used, they are mostly being utilized by the backlash folks more effectively than progressives are using theirs.

If you want that kind of meaningful change, it requires the kind of sustained, thankless grinding that brought us the gains we got in the 60's. That grinding is noticeably lacking in today's Left.

I keep saying this, but it keeps bearing repeating. Recruit local candidates. Research ALL of your candidates in your primaries. Raise money. Campaign. Organize donors and voters into PACs. Use those PACs to influence your representatives. Hold your representatives to account and move their positions. Build your own third rails and energize them. Until you have exhausted these options (not just voting and complaining about it), you're skipping right to defeatism and despair.

We aren't a perfect democracy, but there are literally people dying in China and Russia for the rights we possess here.

So... f-cked then.