[News] Coronavirus

A place to discuss the now-global coronavirus outbreak.

DSGamer wrote:

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maybe it's in HomelandBarbie's Mar-a-Lago Dream House.

DSGamer wrote:

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Trump's proposed FY 2021 budget, which he released two weeks ago, cut the CDC's budget by 18.6% with additional cuts to programs for “emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases" (i.e., diseases just like the new coronavirus), “public health scientific services,” which includes funding for health statistics, surveillance, epidemiology, and informatics activities, and “public health preparedness and response” programs.

He also made massive cuts to it in 2017 - https://www.politico.com/states/new-...

The republicans will be laughing their butts off when the dems get infected by the coronavirus.

Baron Of Hell wrote:

The republicans will be laughing their butts off when the dems get infected by the coronavirus.

I had debated about posting this but I could see the Coronavirus decimating conservatives faster for a variety of reasons - they’re older, tend to not live as healthy lifestyles, and many live in rural areas without adequate health facilities.

Granted, urban liberals will likely get it first but survive.

Coronavirus, meet health care reform.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html

Short version: Man returns to Miami from a work trip to China last month. He's not feeling well, thinks it's probably the flu, but out of a sense of responsibility to his community, goes to a hospital to make sure. Testing for coronavirus would involve a CT scan, and his insurance isn't great, so he asks for a flu test first. Turns out he has the flu, so he's discharged.

He's also on a junk plan made available after Trump's ACA rollbacks, so he owes at least $1,400. And he has to provide 3 years of medical records to show that the flu isn't related to a pre-existing condition. I'm not really sure what condition could cause spontaneous generation of influenza.

Given Pence's past forays into the medical field, is he going to advocate for praying away the coronavirus or torturing it out of people?

I almost feel sorry for Mike Pence right now. I'm imagining how Trump will treat him if coronavirus takes off and we begin to really feel it in the US, in the months right before the election. I anticipate one of the whiniest, most egregious examples of throwing a person under the bus in all of human history.

All schools closed in Japan

The prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, has ordered all primary and secondary schools to close from 2 March until the spring break, typically around the end of March.

I’m still in shock...

Rat Boy wrote:

Given Pence's past forays into the medical field, is he going to advocate for praying away the coronavirus or torturing it out of people?

His first order will be to quarantine roughly half of the population of the US to kitchens and stay-at-home-motherhood. You know, to stem the spread of the virus.

gewy wrote:

I almost feel sorry for Mike Pence right now. I'm imagining how Trump will treat him if coronavirus takes off and we begin to really feel it in the US, in the months right before the election. I anticipate one of the whiniest, most egregious examples of throwing a person under the bus in all of human history.

Trump doesn't need Pence any longer. He wanted him to reassure the white evangelicals, and that's done; they worship Trump now. So Trump has nothing to lose- if things go well he can take the credit for putting Pence in charge and if they don't, Pence is expendable.

Mr GT Chris wrote:

All schools closed in Japan

The prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, has ordered all primary and secondary schools to close from 2 March until the spring break, typically around the end of March.

I’m still in shock...

Woke up to this news. I didn’t realize there were a bunch of cases in Hokkaido. Also, a woman has tested positive a 2nd time after being cleared.

jdzappa wrote:
Baron Of Hell wrote:

The republicans will be laughing their butts off when the dems get infected by the coronavirus.

I had debated about posting this but I could see the Coronavirus decimating conservatives faster for a variety of reasons - they’re older, tend to not live as healthy lifestyles, and many live in rural areas without adequate health facilities.

Granted, urban liberals will likely get it first but survive.

I've been thinking about this too, and haven't seen many mention it. Even with a lower .4% fatality rate, there are enough cases requiring hospitalization that it could impact political races because many candidates are older, around lots of people, and fatigued (likely resulting in compromised immune systems). It could also impact voter turnout and rally attendance. And yeah, it seems like it could have a disproportionate effect on the conservative voter base (and thus on the people who share most fake news articles).

And campaigns aside, many of our politically elite, in general, are older. I don't think this will be a tsunami of disruption like some do, but it could have some effect. Though, we'll probably see less of it through the warmer months.

I've said this before, and i'll say it again. Contagion is a great but bracing watch for our current moment (even Gwyneth noticed). If anything about is unrealistic, it's that there's only one of Jude Law's character, and he's not nearly successful enough.

Pandemic, but make it fashion

In the prosperous capitals of Asia, money could buy anything – until a mysterious coronavirus hit, striking fear in rich and poor alike.

Now, surgical masks are nearly impossible to find on shelves from Taipei to Hong Kong to Manila, prompting a panic reminiscent of wartime scarcity, with long queues and reports of hoarding, price gouging and fake products.

People have turned to social media to share creative solutions. How about a mask made of a maxi pad? Half an orange? A water bottle? Bad advice abounds. Note to self: steaming masks to disinfect them does not work.

Some governments have organised mask lotteries. Others are rationing masks. Political leaders tour mask factories, seeking to reassure citizens that manufacturing is being ramped up.

At their simplest, the masks are a thin, pleated layer of gauze – a few millimetres of protection from the world. Other versions, like the N95 used by health care workers, contain advanced carbon filters. Most people are just glad to have a mask in standard white, blue, green or black, but plaid, camouflage, heart and cartoon animal versions are also seen on the streets.

People in China, Japan and other parts of Asia are accustomed to donning surgical masks to fend off pollution or germs, as well as to protect others from sneezes and coughs. Many have a small stash at home, but those will only last so long.

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The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do,” according to people familiar with the president’s comments.

TPM quoting NYT

I just hope you're all prepared for how monumentally stupid this is likely going to get. Even excluding this administration's response, it's going to get so dumb ya'll.

EDIT: Meanwhile, Northern Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands can now all be checked off your cards. If you have coronavirus country bingo, please do not shout "Bingo" but just raise your hand, and someone will come over and inspect your card.

Prederick wrote:

I just hope you're all prepared for how monumentally stupid this is likely going to get. Even excluding this administration's response, it's going to get so dumb ya'll.

5WPR Survey Reveals 38% of Beer-Drinking Americans Wouldn't Buy Corona Now

So. Dumb.

Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses.

This has been sticking in my mind. I'm not good at math, so someone telling me that I'm wrong would be welcome.

The global population is 7.8 billion people. The fatality rate of covid-19 was estimated to be between 1% and 2.5% last I saw.

So a low-end estimate of 40% global infection and 1% fatality rate would see 31 million deaths globally.

At the high-end estimate 70% and 2.5% fatality rate would see 136.5 million deaths globally.

This is in the next year. For contrast, influenza kills an estimated 650,000 people globally per year.

Yeah, I was thinking that when I read the quote too. If even remotely true that would be absolutely insane.
Seems perfectly fine if the healthcare services 'overreacts' a little in these situations.

I think the only mitigating factor in the math is; maybe the fatality rate could be much lower, if a lot of people are getting the virus today without showing any significant symptoms, thus never being counted among the infected.

For the US, if those numbers held, the low-end estimate would be 1.3 million deaths with a high end of 5.8 million.

Or, the population of Dallas on the low end. Los Angeles and San Diego on the high end.

Shadout wrote:

I think the only mitigating factor in the math is; maybe the fatality rate could be much lower, if a lot of people are getting the virus today without showing any significant symptoms, thus never being counted among the infected.

We can hope. Lethality will also vary by location and resources.

I work in Manhattan and like.... I knew the threat but I didn't really conceive of how bad it could be until I hopped on a rush hour subway train today.

Like, when it comes to New York City, the disruption alone is going to be staggering. I now get why they're talking about coronavirus equaling or even exceeding the economic wreckage caused by the Great Recession.

Another underlying factor is the demographic and comorbidities in those that have died.

  • 14.8% case fatality rate in patients 80+
  • 8.0% case fatality rate in patients 70-79
  • 49.0% case fatality rate when symptoms were critical
  • Source

Another key piece of information is these rates were based on confirmed cases only (n=44,672), there were almost twice as many (n=72,314) total cases which included confirmed, suspected, clinically diagnosed, and asymptomatic.

*I was unable to find any data or study correlating age/gender with comorbid conditions. China has the largest population of smoking males in the world

This is a good dashboard view of the virus spread

Based on that dashboard and what I've read (from my non-expert, but semi-informed, knowledge) I think the 40%-70% infection rate is alarmist. All the models I found indicated a Wuhan infection plateau of 100-150k which in a region of nearly 12 million people is nowhere near 40%.

A real risk is mutation as the virus spreads. Given the likely genesis of COVID-19 crossing the animal-human barrier, there's a possibility of further mutation occurring and giving serious trouble down the line.

Based on that dashboard and what I've read (from my non-expert, but semi-informed, knowledge) I think the 40%-70% infection rate is alarmist.

Your mouth to God's ears. I wouldn't cry at all if this turned out to be less severe.

staygold wrote:

Another underlying factor is the demographic and comorbidities in those that have died.

  • 14.8% case fatality rate in patients 80+
  • 8.0% case fatality rate in patients 70-79
  • 49.0% case fatality rate when symptoms were critical
  • Source

1-2% is still 1-2% even if mostly old people die. That is still kinda horrible if those numbers held up.
As someone suffering from asthma I dont take that much comfort in knowing that it might mostly be people like myself that might die
Same for smokers etc.

But yeah, maybe 40-70% is way too high. One could hope. On the other hand, we are also only few months in. That estimate seemed to be based on a year passing by.

Anyway, my point just is, it seems completely reasonable, that healthcare services and media is reacting strongly to this. Even if it all goes away again in a month.

Vector wrote:

Woke up to this news. I didn’t realize there were a bunch of cases in Hokkaido. Also, a woman has tested positive a 2nd time after being cleared.

Sorry, I remember you were in Japan, was that in Hokkaido? Also, maybe you have family affected? We are feeling quite stressed already, of course income will be reduced as work opportunities dry up for the foreseeable future.