[Discussion] US-Iran

Was going to reply in another thread, but I guess this is the place now.

I suspect this is along the same lines as the China trade war. Trump probably thinks one show of American strength (and by extension Trump's strength, compared to a wuss like Obama) will have the other side instantly backing down in fear, giving in to whatever he wants. He doesn't understand that these are proud nations with proud leaders that would far rather suffer militarily and economically than give in to what they see as the American bully. They'd rather fight back and take a beating than cower. They have probably even calculated that acquiescing will only reinforce America's behavior, so it's better to endure the cost once than have it repeated several times over.

I think Trump has been taken by surprise by China's willingness to go tit-for-tat on trade. I think he's surprised, and even trying to delude himself otherwise, that Kim Jong Un is still provocating and working on his missile program despite Trump's efforts. I think he will be surprised when Iran counters with what I fear will be devastating blow. I have no idea what Iran will do, but I suspect it will be no half measure. They will go for "Shock and Awe."

I don't think this is planned as a distraction from impeachment. I think it's just reflective of the total shallowness of Trump's foreign policy decision-making in general. Benghazi, and Fox News' obsession with it, is probably the main factor here. It has sunken deep within Trump's brain that Clinton was responsible for the US embassy being overrun in Libya, which was one of most tragic and shameful events in American history like, ever. When a similar thing has happened on his watch, he knows he has to react more decisively. So here we are.

I don't think there is some long range plan for a Muslim crackdown and I don't think Trump wants to become embroiled in a Mideast conflict. Now, obviously the Stephen Miller and John Bolton-types are licking their lips in anticipation about these prospects and how they can use events to their favor, but Trump himself hasn't thought through any of this at all. That terrifies me. I fear we are far more vulnerable than we know and we may be finding out just how much in the coming months.

edit: Yes, EFP's in Times Square would not surprise me at all.

Looks like Trump picked the wrong week to start believing CIA, military, and state department intelligence assessments.

Sure, but I’m talking about how Trump views it. I mean imagine you’re someone who has never really paid much attention to politics and history for the 70+ years of your life- at least until the last 10 years or so when you started watching Fox News obsessively. You’d probably think Benghazi was one of the defining moments in American history, on par with 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. And of course Clinton was responsible. If that happens on my watch, America will kick ass, not lie down and take it like that namby-pamby Obama and crooked Hillary.

@ gewy: I don't wade in often, but I'm still unclear if the Orange Menace deeply believes anything he says during his presidency. Several of his circa 1999 - 2008 era interviews begin to approach 180 territory. Bush should be tried for war crimes and they should make impeachment happen, direct admiration for and would consider voting for Hillary -- specifically empathy for what she's dealt with in the spotlight, comparatively balance takes on foreign policy (at least, a willingness to concede that certain situations require delicacy vs roll hard and thump your chest). Really, same guy. Still a bit of a hawk, but his speaking style / shtick is largely absent.

Trump plays to his base. Once he gets the boot as President, you'll still have red hats around. It doesn't outweigh the damage he's done by a long shot, but the above part about his base? Well, it's been equal parts horrible yet illuminating.
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@ Prederick: 'eh, I can be fairly dark with my thoughts at times, but I believe there's innate truth to your statements. Empathy for the suffering that comes along with war if you aren't going through same? Well, that's an ocean away. Hard to possess when it's become some weird mashup of NFL-like team zeal mixed with seemingly tug-of-war impact (for us stateside) . Perhaps not that far removed, but reminds me of big fighty robot scifi. The one's where it's some gladiator vs gladiator event that decides the outcome and nobody else gets hurt (well, at least until act two and the big bad betrays the rules of the war games).

It doesn't take long gazing at images of impacted Syria before the word that comes to mind is 'chilling'.

The other part is that if they didn't find a way to laugh at it they'd be paralyzed with fear of it.

So for those with more knowledge than me on Iran, is the portrayal of Soleimani as a hardcore terrorist responsible for hundreds of American and civilian deaths? If so, I’m not ashamed to say I’m happy the guy is dead. But I also recognize the risk wasn’t worth taking.

And how many more Americans will die because of this one act?

Edit: Not directed at you. If we were going to kill him, plausible deniability would have been great.

Oh. My. God.

I hate that framing because, honestly, he's probably killed far fewer enemy soldiers and innocent civilians than American politicians and military commanders have over the past 20 years and we certainly aren't calling them terrorists.

That was my reaction...the US openly assassinated a high ranking government official?

I doubt that's needed for any reason aside from comedic.

If I assume their competence, Iranian state hackers will have been working at that coalface for months at this point.

Russia's a wild card here. They obviously have ties to both Trump and Iran and who knows what they'll do if they want to head off a war between the two.

Keep in mind that Soleimani was operating in Iraq with not just the permission, but in active coordination with the Iraqi military. His help in the fight against ISIS has been particularly effective and, in Iraq, appreciated. And the drone strike that assassinated him also killed high ranking members of the Iraqi army -- the army of a government we are ostensibly supporting.

The fallout from this is expected to include the Iraqi Prime minister acceding to political pressure to back a proposal to revoke the legal status of American forces and contractors operating in Iraq. This would effectively make it impossible for the US to project meaningful power into Iraq and/or Syria.

Just as 9-11 managed the unthinkably successful result of getting Bush the Lesser to overreact in a way that provided al Qaeda with the context of an American war on Islam, it is starting to look like the killing of a couple American contractors has had the unimaginably successful effect of getting Trump the Asinine to hand Iraq to the Iranians.

Iraqi parliment votes to expel US forces.

Checkmate, Iran!

I was watching the talking heads this morning and a conservative Trump head stated that there was no way Iraq would vote out Americans. No way, you guys!