NFL 2019: Draft

Ignore the Niners for now, look over here: Tampa drafted a kicker again! Welcome to the Bucs, Matt Gay!

*Legion* wrote:

Ignore the Niners for now, look over here: Tampa drafted a kicker again! Welcome to the Bucs, Matt Gay!

"It really hurt when I punched myself in the nuts last time. I'm gonna try again, though not quite as hard. See how it goes."

Never, ever, ever draft a kicker.

The fun part is that the Bucs 5th round kicker and the Niners 4th round punter are from the same school.

We must judge their respective careers against each other.

*Legion* wrote:

The fun part is that the Bucs 5th round kicker and the Niners 4th round punter are from the same school.

We must judge their respective careers against each other.

Unfair; I spent far too much time (FAR too much time) researching the success of the kickers in the pros and comparing it to both draft position and college success, and there's effectively zero correlation for kickers, and your odds of getting a good kicker via the draft vs. just doing tryouts for UDFAs are equal. Never draft a kicker; it doesn't give you better odds of being a good kicker. It's the only position where that's true; good punters are drafted.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

The fun part is that the Bucs 5th round kicker and the Niners 4th round punter are from the same school.

We must judge their respective careers against each other.

Unfair; I spent far too much time (FAR too much time) researching the success of the kickers in the pros and comparing it to both draft position and college success, and there's effectively zero correlation for kickers, and your odds of getting a good kicker via the draft vs. just doing tryouts for UDFAs are equal. Never draft a kicker; it doesn't give you better odds of being a good kicker. It's the only position where that's true; good punters are drafted.

I'm sorry, who are you again?

And why do you have this knowledge of kickers and punters?

garion333 wrote:

I'm sorry, who are you again?

And why do you have this knowledge of kickers and punters?

Dammit this is how we all should have responded when he showed back up. "Hi! Welcome to GWJ. You watch football? Who's your favorite team?"

Couple things on Jaguar draft picks.

First, with our boy Quincy Williams. I was watching the Lynch/Shanahan 49ers day 3 press conference, and when someone asked a question about a couple of 49ers draft picks that weren't given Combine invites, Shanahan started talking about when those guys enter the evaluation process, and he brought up Quincy Williams (at 14:46 in the video):

"For us, at least the coaches especially, we just find out about them a little bit later, cause the first guys we hear about are the guys we see in Indy, then you come back and you watch them all, and you get 'hey, watch this guy'. And I know you didn't hear about him because he wasn't at Indy, and that happened with the linebacker, Quinnen Williams's brother, everyone was shocked he went early to Jacksonville, and that's probably because he didn't go to Indy, but we found out about him a little bit later, and that guy went exactly where he should have gone, he's a really good player. And that happens with a number of people, they just, you hear about their names later..."

So that's nice to see someone else, completely unprompted, affirm that there's at least one other NFL team that valued the obscure player right at that level.

The other new discovery today is that the San Jose State tight end that they drafted is from Paso Robles, so he's a central coast guy, and therefore elevated almost to the same venerance that I usually reserve for FRESNO STATE players. If it was Pismo or Santa Maria, then it would have been better.

The draft is finally over!

Now we move into the part of the season where we feel really good about our team.

Someone needs to explain that feeling to Legion and, tbh, most of y'all here.

Big talk for a fan of a 7-9 team!

*Legion* wrote:

Big talk for a fan of a 7-9 team!

I said "feel good," not "are good." And I was feeling really good about Carolina's chances until Cam's arm fell off about halfway through the season.

Gotta hold onto that "feel good" feeling for a while longer. Maybe if I have extra I'll share with a Giants fan.

Grier definitely was a wise pick for Carolina, and so was Greg Little.

So was their 6th round tackle Dennis Daley, who has starting potential, even though he can't be counted on in the near term. Good project.

Some desperate needed investment in their offensive line.

Love all the trading down from Seattle. Looking forward to seeing how all those rookies perform!

Also,

It's not often that I see total eviscerations in the comments of any website, anywhere, but this Deadspin commenter just annihilates Dave Gettleman's "I know what I'm doing, check my resume" horsesh*t.

Goodness I am not thrilled about having this guy as my team's GM.

With the draft ended, the "way too early 2020" draft lists have begun.

I thought it would be fun to look at a too-early 2019 list and see how it compared with reality.

Really, it was much more accurate than I expected.

Nick Bosa and Ed Oliver were 1 and 3 on the list, both top 10 picks in the draft a year later.

Justin Herbert was the top QB, he stayed in school. So did QB Shea Patterson, OT Trey Adams, WR Collin Johnson, and edge rusher Terrell Lewis. Herbert, Adams, and Lewis all still have 1st round projections for 2020.

QB Clayton Throson tore his ACL in his bowl game, still went round 5, though he still wouldn't have been a round 1 guy without the injury.

Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins aren't on the list, as both had yet to play their 1 year of starting at this point.

A lot of the 1st round defensive linemen are on this list, in addition to Bosa and Oliver: Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Jeffery Simmons, Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Rashan Gary... really a great hit rate.

Jonah Williams as the top offensive lineman was right on.

WR Deebo Samuel went early round 2. AJ Brown went a little later in round 2.

OT Greg Little went early round 2.

CB Deandre Baker was a 1st rounder. Greedy Williams was expected to be and slid into round 2.

CB Sam Beal actually left school and entered the NFL in the 2018 supplemental draft. The New York Giants spend their 2019 3rd round pick to take him.

Offensive lineman Michael Deiter went in the 3rd round.

Edge rusher Austin Bryant, QB Ryan Finley, and LB Christian Miller went in the 4th round.

Edge rusher Joe Jackson and CB Michael Jackson both went in round 5 to Dallas.

WR Ahmmon Richards suffered a neck injury that ended his football playing career.

The biggest "misses" on the list: OT Mitch Hyatt and QB Nick Fitzgerald went in undrafted free agency.

For a list that lacks an entire season of football's worth of additional information before the actual draft, that's pretty good.

Prederick wrote:

It's not often that I see total eviscerations in the comments of any website, anywhere, but this Deadspin commenter just annihilates Dave Gettleman's "I know what I'm doing, check my resume" horsesh*t.

Goodness I am not thrilled about having this guy as my team's GM.

Collins is a “Super Bowl quarterback” in the same manner that a Yugo on fire is technically “a road-legal vehicle”.

That, there, is some high-quality shade.

At least he doesn't draft kickers.

Speaking of kickers, Sebastian Janikowski is retiring. Never better than average (if that), and his long career is a testament to a bad franchise not understanding the concept of a sunk cost.

Well, we will see how it pans out with Jones. This will make or break Gettleman and the team.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Speaking of kickers, Sebastian Janikowski is retiring. Never better than average (if that), and his long career is a testament to a bad franchise not understanding the concept of a sunk cost.

"With 436 career field goals, Janikowski ranks ninth on the NFL's all-time leader board in that category and figures to garner Hall of Fame consideration once he's eligible."

One final (maybe) post before we shut this one down and move to a training camp thread.

If you have a few minutes, check out SI's story about Project X, a small school sleeper. Here's the post-draft part 2, where they ID him.

Some interesting behind-the-scenes stuff from a prospect's perspective.

So there's a rumor that there is some friction between John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan.

More specifically, Shanahan has allegedly been more involved in player evaluation than he wants to be. Shanahan wants to just focus on coaching but isn't trusting Lynch to make the right personnel decisions on his own.

It doesn't seem likely to boil over into the same kind of deal as the last coach/GM flare-up in San Francisco, mainly because neither of these men are as inflexible or antagonistic as Jim Harbaugh.

But it would not be surprising to see Lynch at some point transition away from GM and up to an executive role, something that has long been suggested to be the eventual endgame.

Kinda funny though, usually coaches are mad that they don't have enough input on personnel. Much less common for a coach to be unhappy that he has to have so much input.

EDIT: Kyle Shanahan apparently doesn't think much of the friction report, calling it complete bullsh*t when asked about it.

Well that's certainly a stronger denial than anything Baalke ever got out of Harbaugh.

I still do wonder about the personnel evaluation arrangement in San Francisco. Adam Peters always seemed to me like the top player evaluator there in SF and a guy who seems on the fast track to eventually be a GM, and ex-Lions GM Martin Mayhew remains on the personnel staff. So it's not like there isn't anyone in the building that can do the job, but how much decision making belongs to Lynch himself is an open question.

Puhlease, Shanny Jr wants to be in control just like Shanny Sr. and I'm beyond shocked the report is anything but John Lynch is mad at Shanny for meddling in player eval, etc.

We were out having lunch this weekend at a restaurant that had the draft on TV.

I looked up just in time to see that someone from my high school got drafted.

(too bad for him that it was Washington)

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Speaking of kickers, Sebastian Janikowski is retiring. Never better than average (if that), and his long career is a testament to a bad franchise not understanding the concept of a sunk cost.

"With 436 career field goals, Janikowski ranks ninth on the NFL's all-time leader board in that category and figures to garner Hall of Fame consideration once he's eligible."

:D

49th in all-time FG accuracy. Almost a full ten points behind career leader Justin Tucker. And, no, Raiders fans, the infield does not make a statistically significant difference here, nor did he get punished for overly-long kicks; he hit a bit above 50% of his career 50+ attempts, and Tucker's hit a good 2/3rds. A few gimmicky super-long FGs for the lulz do not explain Janikowski's sub-par kicking performance.

It’s the Raiders besides the blip in the Gruden era what did they really have to cheer for in the last 18 years or so?

TheGameguru wrote:

It’s the Raiders besides the blip in the Gruden era what did they really have to cheer for in the last 18 years or so?

Nnamdi Asomugha? Derek Carr looking like a real QB for one year? Actually drafting good players like Khalil Mack? I mean, he was DRAFTED by the team.

[Colts GM Chris] Ballard took over for Ryan Grigson in 2017, which is like following Nathan Peterman as a starting quarterback.

From here.

Then there's this:

Grigson should've been fired long before he was.

Peter King made a comment I thought was interesting:

GM of the Draft: An unknown one—Miami’s Chris Grier, who, with two trades in the span of an hour Friday night, turned the 48th overall pick into Josh Rosen, a sixth-round pick and a second-round pick in 2020. The Dolphins now have a year to see if the 10th pick in the 2018 draft, Rosen, can be the QB of the future … and if not, Grier will have five extra picks (as of now) in 2020 to find that franchise passer in a richer crop of prospects next April. “I know some people say we’re tanking,” Grier said from Florida on Saturday night. “That’s the furthest thing from the truth. It’s gathering draft capital, plus we’ve now got a quarterback to come in and compete for us.”

Miami has long been the most boring team in the league by signing mid-tier players to long contracts and then being mediocre, but it appears their new GM actually has something of a plan.

Dave Gettleman, this is how you should draft, gain value from the picks you earn, not reach on guys you fall in love with.

And the longer I think of how stupid it was that Steve Keim didn't manage a trade for Rosen before the draft the more I think he may be unfit for the job.

Edit: Addendum from Peter King:

What I found interesting, sitting with Mayock for 45 minutes as he digested his first night, was how much this GM job seemed like his calling. He did football games on TV, he dissected the draft on TV, and no one knows if he’ll be great at this or just okay; it’ll take years to know. But what I saw was a guy who had patience, which is the calling of good GMs. They’ve got to be willing to lose a guy they want to get the max value on a pick. Mayock showed that several times in this draft.

Meaning, not Gettleman. Burn.

To King and others..Damn man, let it go? Time will tell if the move was a good one or not. If not a good one, he's gone. If good, he will be praised.

whispa wrote:

To King and others..Damn man, let it go? Time will tell if the move was a good one or not. If not a good one, he's gone. If good, he will be praised.

You want people to move on already? Seriously? The draft was last weekend.

Edit: To be clear, we're still giving Legion sh*t for the Jags drafting Bork and that happened five years ago.

Chris Grier trading down from the high 2nd Arizona clearly coveted, then coming back at them with his new lower 2nd round pick as Arizona was out of other options, was my favorite move of the entire weekend by a team I don't cheer for.