NFL 2019: Draft

Gnarly!

I'm not sure how many of yall saw that the Raiders sent most of their scouts home last Friday and told em to stay away until after the Draft. They did it so people wouldn't leak their "surprise" pick. My guess is two-fold:

1. Draft QB Haskins. The expectation here being that Kyler Murray is gone earlier. Haskins has the sort of brain I can see Gruden wanting to break mold.

2. They already have in place with the Cardinals a trade up for the 1st pick. And with it they will take Kyler Murray.

I actually think it's more realistic they stay pat or move up a spot or two, but not all the way to #1, and take a pass rusher. There's simply too many high end pass rushers this draft to avoid them. Then again, perhaps that's what they target lower in the 1st with their other pick since there are a plethora of DL/Edge guys.

I just want Houston to spend all their picks on o-line guys. The whole draft, nothing but o-line. A couple of them would have to stick, right?

They'll draft zero. Just watch.

I want the Browns to get OBJ with their No. 1 pic.

And for the record, I watched Pat Shurmer coach when he was the Browns HC. I was frustrated with that sh*tshow too.

Ben and Steelers extend his contract through 2021. No shock there. I'm sure it's the typical $20+ mil/yr or wherever we're at with that.

garion333 wrote:

I'm not sure how many of yall saw that the Raiders sent most of their scouts home last Friday and told em to stay away until after the Draft. They did it so people wouldn't leak their "surprise" pick. My guess is two-fold:

1. Draft QB Haskins. The expectation here being that Kyler Murray is gone earlier. Haskins has the sort of brain I can see Gruden wanting to break mold.

2. They already have in place with the Cardinals a trade up for the 1st pick. And with it they will take Kyler Murray.

I actually think it's more realistic they stay pat or move up a spot or two, but not all the way to #1, and take a pass rusher. There's simply too many high end pass rushers this draft to avoid them. Then again, perhaps that's what they target lower in the 1st with their other pick since there are a plethora of DL/Edge guys.

I don't think they take a QB. Two reasons:

1. Gruden has traditionally hated inexperienced QBs. It takes them forever to learn his system. Murray and Haskins would not only be rookies, but 1-year college starters.

2. If you wanted to move Derek Carr and his ~$20m/year for the next 4 years contract, the time to do it was before everyone spent their money in the free agency bonanza.

Of course, that means it will happen, and Derek Carr will actually be available for QB-needy teams, and the Jaguars could have had him for $20m/year but instead they already spent $22m/year on Nick F*cking Foles, and I will OH NO

The Raiders do have the cap space to keep Carr if they can't find any buyers. Or they could cut Carr and swallow the dead money (would add another $4.9m onto their 2019 cap, something they can absorb). But neither of those options are particularly great from a value perspective.

All that said, I think their "big move" is more likely to be packaging one of their lower 1sts and their high 2nd to move up in round 1 to target a player in the 10-20 range.

Robert Mays has turned my opinion around on Marquise Brown. If he's been learning how to work like Antonio Brown then he's got a chance to be DeSean Jackson 2.0.

Not draft related but CJ2K is retiring a Titan.

https://www.titansonline.com/news/ch...

If you told me in the heyday of McNair/George that we would have a rusher go for 2000 yards in a season and not make the playoffs, I would have you committed.

UpToIsomorphism wrote:

I want the Browns to get OBJ with their No. 1 pic.

And for the record, I watched Pat Shurmer coach when he was the Browns HC. I was frustrated with that sh*tshow too.

The whole Browns org was a sh*tshow for years. Let's see if they can turn it around finally. As do the Giants.

ccesarano wrote:

I dunno about wishlists and I don't keep up enough to really be able to follow. I just want someone to replace Seumalo and/or Vaitai and/or be ready to take Peters' position.

Eagles followers seem very intrigued by their 7th round pick last year, the 6'8" 345lb Aussie rugby player Jordan Mailata. He's basically learning football from scratch, but as someone like Trent Brown showed, you can do a lot as a tackle simply by being 6'8" and ~350lbs and swallowing people up.

I think the Eagles definitely need to add to the tackle position, but with Peters back on a one-year deal, they don't have to do it at the top of the draft. Get a mid-round tackle and have that guy and Mailata battling for the #2 job, then have them continue to battle it out in camp in 2020 to take over the #1 job.

bighoppa wrote:

I just want Houston to spend all their picks on o-line guys. The whole draft, nothing but o-line. A couple of them would have to stick, right?

They've got their 1st plus two 2nd round picks. If I'm them, I spend two of those three on offensive line, provided the board value is there for me to do so.

Possibly I trade down from one of those 2nds to pick up a 3rd plus other picks (depending what's on offer, possibly 2020 picks), and use the 3rd on an interior lineman.

The other thing with Houston is that they have got to get someone that can cover. Johnathan Joseph can still do the job (for a little while longer at least), but signing Aaron Colvin to be an outside corner was an obvious bad move the day they did it, and it only looks worse in hindsight. Overpaying good slot corners to try and make them outside corners is a losing formula. They doubled down on signing slot corners by signing Bradley Roby this offseason, but that was to a one-year deal, and one of these two guys will actually play slot corner. Drafting someone that projects better to an outside corner would help a lot.

garion333 wrote:

Robert Mays has turned my opinion around on Marquise Brown. If he's been learning how to work like Antonio Brown then he's got a chance to be DeSean Jackson 2.0.

It's an awfully short list of names of guys built as slight as DeSean Jackson who could produce in the NFL. There's very little margin for error.

He's reminding me of Keke Coutee, who missed most of his rookie season with two separate hamstring injuries. I don't mind taking a chance on that with a 4th round pick like Coutee was, but where Marquise is mocked to go, I'm less enamored by the idea.

The district attorney has declined to file charges against Tyreek Hill or his fiancee, but they stated that they "believe that a crime occurred", but that the evidence would not able to sufficiently establish who was guilty.

In other words, they couldn't prove which of the two of them was the human piece of sh*t, they just are pretty sure it was one of them.

*Legion* wrote:

The district attorney has declined to file charges against Tyreek Hill or his fiancee, but they stated that they "believe that a crime occurred", but that the evidence would not able to sufficiently establish who was guilty.

In other words, they couldn't prove which of the two of them was the human piece of sh*t, they just are pretty sure it was one of them.

It can still be more complicated than just that.

My wife twisted Jordan's arm out it's socket when she was toddler aged. I watched it happen right in front of me, as she was trying to get Jo's shoes on. Jordan yanked herself back, and screamed like crazy.

At the emergency room my wife got the lecture about her temper and how important it is not to yank on the child. It was embarrassing and infuriating, but we understood why.

But we were a white upper middle class family with no history. But I can also see how if we had been a black couple in conservative Johnson County, and one of us had the history Hill has, I can imagine it going much, much differently. And not just on the part of the investigators, but I would have been awfully defensive in that situation, which just makes it worse. I'm not saying Hill gets a pass, I'm saying I'm not ready to call them pieces of sh*t, yet.

I see a 4-8 game suspension, maybe even for the season, coming. It depends on how Hill plays the with the NFL. He can't be forced to testify against himself in court, but the NFL can require him to explain himself before he plays football. If he plays the, "You can't prove it," game, then he is probably gone for the year. If he has a reasonable explanation for why the case involving his son is unresolved, it will be in the 4-8 range.

One guy I'm very interested to see where he falls on draft day is Jerry Tillery.

PFF has been banging the table for him as a guy that belongs high in the draft, even a top 10 prospect.

But I've seen rumors, which unfortunately I can't find right now, that Tillery's interviews at the Combine were not the best. I think "weird" was the word that was used. They also don't like that he has interests beyond football (he's studied abroad in South Africa, Japan, and Ireland, and has traveled for pleasure to many other places), which seems like a poor reason to knock a guy, but that mindset exists in the NFL.

Jayhawker wrote:

But we were a white upper middle class family with no history.

Let's not gloss over the "no history" part. Hill is someone who has already pled guilty once before to domestic violence, having punched and choked this same fiancee. That has burned up any benefit of the doubt I might otherwise have given him.

If your wife had a record for beating you, I'd be less inclined to take her at her word for her child's broken arm.

Also, there's a huge difference between an emergency room attendant drawing a conclusion and saying something to your wife, and the district attorney investigating the incident and then publicly drawing the conclusion that a crime occurred. That's a much higher bar to reach. In my view, the odds that both Hill and the fiancee are innocent of wrongdoing is vanishingly slim.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/Bs3oWZM.png)

Assuming this is true, I'm guessing it means that Washington is looking at getting Dwayne Haskins. (The Reddit/Twitter crowd thinks Washington is going to go all the way up to #1 instead for Murray. I'm going with the more conservative prediction.)

So they're probably looking to move from 15 up into the 6-10 range, ahead of Cincy at 11.

If I'm the Jags, I would totally move down from 7 to 15. Take pick 15, Washington's second rounder (46), and their compensatory 3rd (116).

That'd be 1606 points on the trade chart, in exchange for the #7 pick's 1500 points. If Washington doesn't want to give the compensatory pick, especially after giving up their 2nd rounder, I'd be willing to take a 2020 3rd instead. In fact the 2020 pick might be better as the Jags already have two 3rds in this draft.

Free agent DT Corey Liuget is visiting the Jaguars right now.

The timing makes this rather interesting. It makes me wonder if Marcell Dareus could be a draft-day trade asset. They re-signed him in February to a deal with 1-year plus an option year in 2020. The dead money acceleration would be completely offset by the space freed up, so no cap worries.

*Legion* wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

But we were a white upper middle class family with no history.

Let's not gloss over the "no history" part. Hill is someone who has already pled guilty once before to domestic violence, having punched and choked this same fiancee. That has burned up any benefit of the doubt I might otherwise have given him.

If your wife had a record for beating you, I'd be less inclined to take her at her word for her child's broken arm.

Also, there's a huge difference between an emergency room attendant drawing a conclusion and saying something to your wife, and the district attorney investigating the incident and then publicly drawing the conclusion that a crime occurred. That's a much higher bar to reach. In my view, the odds that both Hill and the fiancee are innocent of wrongdoing is vanishingly slim.

My point was that if we had a history, it would have made the innocent act that happened much more suspicious. And that ER nurse might go an extra step and make a stronger recommendation to investigate. And a DA could see this as either a great opportunity to teach Hill a lesson, or even pressure to launch a larger investigation because he is famous.

And if this was going on, my wife and I would be much more guarded to say anything without a lawyer, making it look even worse.

I’m not giving him a pass, but I’m not ready to assume the worst, either.

Jayhawker wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

But we were a white upper middle class family with no history.

Let's not gloss over the "no history" part. Hill is someone who has already pled guilty once before to domestic violence, having punched and choked this same fiancee. That has burned up any benefit of the doubt I might otherwise have given him.

If your wife had a record for beating you, I'd be less inclined to take her at her word for her child's broken arm.

Also, there's a huge difference between an emergency room attendant drawing a conclusion and saying something to your wife, and the district attorney investigating the incident and then publicly drawing the conclusion that a crime occurred. That's a much higher bar to reach. In my view, the odds that both Hill and the fiancee are innocent of wrongdoing is vanishingly slim.

My point was that if we had a history, it would have made the innocent act that happened much more suspicious. And that ER nurse might go an extra step and make a stronger recommendation to investigate. And a DA could see this as either a great opportunity to teach Hill a lesson, or even pressure to launch a larger investigation because he is famous.

And if this was going on, my wife and I would be much more guarded to say anything without a lawyer, making it look even worse.

I’m not giving him a pass, but I’m not ready to assume the worst, either.

I’m with you on this one Jayhawker. Black man accused of a crime by white prosecutor to me is always going to be an assumption of bias by the system. No charges to me means innocent and there should be no NFL consequences unless they have proof of guilt. But this is the NFL so black athlete accused of crime equals guilty period so I’m expecting a suspension.

Docjoe wrote:
jowner wrote:

Fingers crossed a QB or someone coveted slides to 12th for the Packers and a team loses their minds trading up like last year.

Most mocks have Hockenson going in the top 10 and the Packers taking Noah Fant at 12. So 2 TEs in the top 12? I dunno about that.

I prefer a fairy tale scenario where a QB slides to 12th someone out smarts themselves and trades up and the Packers still land Fant at... 15th. The Washington expletives seem dysfunctional enough to do this.

I’d prefer they get a TE in round 2-4 than take Fant that early. If Hockenson is there at 12 I’m on board given his blocking.

I’m hoping for one of the Devin’s, presumably Bush since White will be long gone. An inside LB with speed and aggression would fix so many ills on this defense. I’d also be OK with a trade down and nab Risner for the OL but just not sure he is BPA at 12.

And we gotta get a safety at some point. Makes too much sense for Adderly to come home to Green Bay, would love to see them make that happen.

I'm fine with all these scenarios.

Still fingers crossed some team losses their mind for someone who slides to 12 and the Packers do some juggling that they end up with some extra ammunition.

I'm greedy and afraid though so if it's extra picks this year that would preferable. I'm ready for this team to ramp up the urgency on Rodgers lifespan in the NFL

I listened to the Ringer draft prediction podcast this morning on the way to work, and Robert Mays laid this out:

* Kyler Murray will be the first pick in the draft
* It won't be the Cards who take him. It'll be the Raiders.
* The Raiders got a ton of WRs in the offseason and now need a QB better than Carr to get them the ball
* The Raiders need a Face of the Franchise for their move to Vegas, and Murray's that guy.
* The Raiders have plenty of picks to deal (*3* in Round 1 and 1 early in Round 2)
* The Cards are OK with Josh Rosen for one more year at least (maybe he'll be better under Kingsbury?), but they have a ton of needs and could use a ton of traded picks from the Raiders

Because I know our resident salary cap/contract guru will ask, Mays handwaved away any possible issues with Carr's mega-contract. (I assume they exist, but maybe not.)

Mays' sidekick for the podcast (not Kevin Clark - someone else) countered with, Well, the Cards like Murray, too, and aren't likely to pass him up.

Thoughts? The scenario makes sense, but we're talking about the Raiders, the most nonsense-y team this side of the DC franchise. Also, too, the Cards happily hired Kliff Kingsbury, so who knows, right?

Meanwhile, Mel Kiper in his final mock draft says he's 99.9 percent sure the Cards will take Murray. He has Bosa next to the Niners. And that's all I have because my ESPN+ password is at home and I'm not.

Enix wrote:

better than Carr

DOES_NOT_COMPUTE

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

I'm not sure how many of yall saw that the Raiders sent most of their scouts home last Friday and told em to stay away until after the Draft. They did it so people wouldn't leak their "surprise" pick. My guess is two-fold:

1. Draft QB Haskins. The expectation here being that Kyler Murray is gone earlier. Haskins has the sort of brain I can see Gruden wanting to break mold.

2. They already have in place with the Cardinals a trade up for the 1st pick. And with it they will take Kyler Murray.

I actually think it's more realistic they stay pat or move up a spot or two, but not all the way to #1, and take a pass rusher. There's simply too many high end pass rushers this draft to avoid them. Then again, perhaps that's what they target lower in the 1st with their other pick since there are a plethora of DL/Edge guys.

I don't think they take a QB. Two reasons:

1. Gruden has traditionally hated inexperienced QBs. It takes them forever to learn his system. Murray and Haskins would not only be rookies, but 1-year college starters.

2. If you wanted to move Derek Carr and his ~$20m/year for the next 4 years contract, the time to do it was before everyone spent their money in the free agency bonanza.

Of course, that means it will happen, and Derek Carr will actually be available for QB-needy teams, and the Jaguars could have had him for $20m/year but instead they already spent $22m/year on Nick F*cking Foles, and I will OH NO

The Raiders do have the cap space to keep Carr if they can't find any buyers. Or they could cut Carr and swallow the dead money (would add another $4.9m onto their 2019 cap, something they can absorb). But neither of those options are particularly great from a value perspective.

All that said, I think their "big move" is more likely to be packaging one of their lower 1sts and their high 2nd to move up in round 1 to target a player in the 10-20 range.

It's draft day, so I'm sure this report is 100% accurate.

*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

better than Carr

DOES_NOT_COMPUTE

Haha.

In any case, as someone elsewhere wrote, all of this draft crap is just hype for a three-day TV show.

I seriously wonder how the Night 1 ratings are. I suspect it's better than any baseball games being played right now. It might be better than the NBA playoffs, sad to say.

The AAF (RIP) sure as sh!t didn't sate our appetite for football, amirite?

There were over 40 million viewers last year for the Draft. That puts it in the top 10 viewed events for the year, assuming the NFL wasn't counting incorrectly.

Enix wrote:

It might be better than the NBA playoffs, sad to say.

Last year's TV ratings:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/ynLmEaA.png)

Docjoe wrote:

I’m with you on this one Jayhawker. Black man accused of a crime by white prosecutor to me is always going to be an assumption of bias by the system. No charges to me means innocent and there should be no NFL consequences unless they have proof of guilt. But this is the NFL so black athlete accused of crime equals guilty period so I’m expecting a suspension.

I do think that Hill's history means he deserves extra scrutiny in situations like this. That's life. And the way this was cleared means the NFL should absolutely have questions for Hill. How that goes will determine his future.

He may not have to speak in court or public about what the deal was, but he will have to explain it to the NFL if he wants to play. I don't have a problem with that.

Niners are shopping around 2017 3rd overall pick Solomon Thomas.

Thomas has had a rough start to his career. He was played out of position in San Francisco, lined up on the edge instead of at 3-technique because DeForest Buckner has that position locked down, then he struggled with keeping his mind on football following his sister's suicide before the 2018 season.

Really, given his positional fit, he shouldn't have been taken by the Niners.

*Legion* in the 2017 draft thread wrote:

Next best pass rusher after Garrett, decent pick.

Shut the f*ck up.

garion333 wrote:

There were over 40 million viewers last year for the Draft. That puts it in the top 10 viewed events for the year, assuming the NFL wasn't counting incorrectly.

Hence the hype, I guess. It's amazing what the ESPN Hype Machine can do.