[Discussion] The (likely) Depressing Road to the 2020 Election Thread

It's going to be a circus.

Will 45 get impeached or step down or challenged? All 3? MAYBE.

Will the democrats eat themselves alive and hobble literally every potential candidate before the primaries are done? PROBABLY.

Talk about that junk here.

I'm thinking I might need more examples of presidents that weren't populists. Because if every president is a populist, what's the point?

FWIW, I don't think Bush Sr., Obama, Bush Jr., Clinton, Johnson, and Kennedy were populists. So I might just not understand what a populist is.

A while ago I said that most of our recent Presidents have been the more charismatic of the two candidates. fangblackbone pointed out that they also tend to be populists.

Bush Sr. was an example that *wasn't* a populist. He also ran as a continuation of Reagan, and still lost after one term.

I think the point is that we get this image of Presidents as people who run on their competence and experience, yet it's the candidates that run on 'hope (or hate, as the case may be--there's a dark side to populism too) and change' that win. They often fall short of their promises while in office for various reasons, but promising to bring the people's complaints to a Washington that won't listen to them always seems to win out over someone who sells their experience in working the levers of power in Washington.

Trump promised MAGA; Obama promised Hope and Change; Bush Jr. ran on being 'folksy' over Kerry's experience and Gore's wonkery (while Gore was running away from Clinton: there's the clip above from Clinton, and no one was ever better at convincing voters he 'felt their pain'); Bush Sr. is an exception, and even he was running against Dukakis and with the Reagan halo around him; Reagan's attitude to facts and figures was to shake his head, say "there you go again" and talk about Morning in America; Ford/Carter was in the middle of a political mess; Nixon won when the Democratic party imploded and was literally killed, and was another dark populist (read that one for the history, not the predictions (although in a way, Conservatism did fall into outright Reactionary right-wing hysteria, so)); LBJ had the Kennedy halo around him, and it was still tough against a dark populist like Goldwater (who lost the battle, but won the war for the soul of the Republican party); Kennedy certainly didn't run on his experience or as a statesman; Eisenhower was a super popular general who could have ran in either party; Truman almost lost; and now we're back to FDR.

When you look back at American Presidents, they don't look a whole lot like Bush Sr., even though we're conditioned to think of him as 'presidential'.

Oh, you beat me to it, though mine was going to say “Grampa Touchy has officially announced.”

"Joe Biden: America's Confirmation Sponsor Wants to be Your Next President"

I thought this was interesting for explaining all the people running (LINK):

The story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary so far has been the historic size of the field, which will end up in the mid-20s before all is said and done. And the size of the field is, in large part, a reflection of how Democratic politicians view Joe Biden: as a paper tiger, whose fall will make the nomination anyone’s for the taking.
cheeze_pavilion wrote:

"Joe Biden: America's Confirmation Sponsor Wants to be Your Next President"

I thought this was interesting for explaining all the people running (LINK):

The story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary so far has been the historic size of the field, which will end up in the mid-20s before all is said and done. And the size of the field is, in large part, a reflection of how Democratic politicians view Joe Biden: as a paper tiger, whose fall will make the nomination anyone’s for the taking.

I also think the take on the 538 podcast from earlier this week makes sense; that at this point there is little if any cost to opt in at this time, if nothing else you get a burst of high profile publicity, and can hope that for whatever reason you will catch on as an option for people (i.e. Buttigieg).

Ultimately if you would be up for reelection in 2020 for your current office you can bow out of the primary if you are not getting sufficient traction to still run for your current office.

If he runs as "Grampa Touchy", he has my vote!
Perhaps: M.C. Grampa Touchy while doing a cover of Sir Mix-a-Lot

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think his win is a forgone conclusion unless the economy completely tanks.

garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think that is why people like Pelosi have been so clear that they will move slowly. I hope it works but people have such short attention spans that I don't know how you keep them caring for over a year.

Baby Got Back (that I can massage) doesn't roll off the tongue in the same way.

Reaper81 wrote:
garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think his win is a forgone conclusion unless the economy completely tanks.

Just curious, what are you basing that on? The 2018 midterms, current approval ratings, and projected matchups done by major polling agencies all suggest he's in trouble, and that's WITH a solid economy.

Reaper81 wrote:
garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think his win is a forgone conclusion unless the economy completely tanks.

I think we have way too long to go until then. The economy may be good, but we're all still very stressed and angry which is something that tends to not happen when the economy is good. Maybe it has no bearing on the election, maybe it will.

trichy wrote:
Reaper81 wrote:
garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think his win is a forgone conclusion unless the economy completely tanks.

Just curious, what are you basing that on? The 2018 midterms, current approval ratings, and projected matchups done by major polling agencies all suggest he's in trouble, and that's WITH a solid economy.

Midterms weren't a resounding win for the Dems.

garion333 wrote:
trichy wrote:
Reaper81 wrote:
garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think his win is a forgone conclusion unless the economy completely tanks.

Just curious, what are you basing that on? The 2018 midterms, current approval ratings, and projected matchups done by major polling agencies all suggest he's in trouble, and that's WITH a solid economy.

Midterms weren't a resounding win for the Dems.

Define resounding. It was the third-biggest gain by any party in the last 40 years. Democrats won the house popular vote by just shy of 7%, the third highest popular vote margin since 1992. True, they didn't win the Senate, but they were going up against a horrible map, and overperformed expectations by an average of nearly 10%. It may not have been what we wanted, but to be fair, not many people here would have been satisfied with anything less than a sweeping landslide victory over conservatives in every race from Senator to Boise, Idaho dogcatcher.

garion333 wrote:

Midterms weren't a resounding win for the Dems.

Midterms were a fairly resounding win for the Dems given the electoral map that year.

Also, I wasn't trying to be snarky about what would satisfy people here. I include myself in that number. I dream of a day where having an (R) after your name renders you less electable than published pictures of you juggling the heads of kittens you just murdered.

trichy wrote:
Reaper81 wrote:
garion333 wrote:

My fear now is that the Dems use the Mueller Report to hurt Trump now but then he motivates his base with "Witch Hunt" claims for the next year and a half and wins again in 2020.

I think his win is a forgone conclusion unless the economy completely tanks.

Just curious, what are you basing that on? The 2018 midterms, current approval ratings, and projected matchups done by major polling agencies all suggest he's in trouble, and that's WITH a solid economy.

Just a gut feeling. I don’t think projections matter this far out and the Democratic Party is flailing right now.

Reaper81 wrote:

Just a gut feeling. I don’t think projections matter this far out and the Democratic Party is flailing right now.

Best summary I've seen about my gut feeling about Biden:

Couple that feeling with a reluctance to enforce subpoenas or even talk about impeachment and I'm not super impressed with current Democratic party leadership or the establishment voters.

I guess I couldn't disagree more, because Kerry came off (i.e. perception =/= reality) as an out of touch Washington insider elite while Biden--whatever his many faults--doesn't.

cheeze_pavilion wrote:

I guess I couldn't disagree more, because Kerry came off (i.e. perception =/= reality) as an out of touch Washington insider elite while Biden--whatever his many faults--doesn't.

I do feel that Biden feels uber-out-of-touch, but it's my opinion rather than an ironclad fact. If he does get the nomination I hope you're right.

Gremlin wrote:
cheeze_pavilion wrote:

I guess I couldn't disagree more, because Kerry came off (i.e. perception =/= reality) as an out of touch Washington insider elite while Biden--whatever his many faults--doesn't.

I do feel that Biden feels uber-out-of-touch, but it's my opinion rather than an ironclad fact. If he does get the nomination I hope you're right.

I think it's the difference between being out-of-touch in the perception of people who pay a lot of attention to politics because the ideology of your party is changing (Biden), and coming across to voters as out-of-touch because you come across as too patrician (Kerry).

Ugh, if Biden wins the primaries, I'm not sure I could even force myself to vote for either him or Trump considering that they are both sexual predators, so I really, really hope he doesn't win because at the same time, I definitely don't want Trump for another four years.

Blue no matter who, even Biden. That said Biden very much feels out of touch to me, made worse by his lack of appology. He has completely inhabited the Steve Buschemi "Hello fellow kids" meme in my mind.

I kinda feel like Biden's unpopularity in P&C might be a sign of his electoral strength in a general election, especially against Trump.

cheeze_pavilion wrote:

I kinda feel like Biden's unpopularity in P&C might be a sign of his electoral strength in a general election, especially against Trump.

To be honest, I haven't seen positive reactions to him running from anywhere. I've seen lots of articles citing his popularity but have yet to find a single person actually excited by him. I think those articles are confusing name recognition with favorability, and expect a lot of people are picking him in the surveys and polls they reference are doing so because they think he really is the guy the memes make him out to be.

Don't much care for Biden, and I hope he is not the Democratic candidate. That said, if he is, I will vote for him, because ANYONE trumps Trump.

That comb story seems to have just sunk Klobuchar. I haven't heard a peep about her since then.

cheeze_pavilion wrote:

I kinda feel like Biden's unpopularity in P&C might be a sign of his electoral strength in a general election, especially against Trump.

Yeah. The blow back against him in P&C regarding his touching actually made me like him a little more. He moved up to my fourth choice, after Buttigieg, Bernie, and Warren, in that order. Calling a man who hugs people a “sexual predator” and equating him to trump is pretty offensive imo.

Generally speaking, I’m not alone, either. Biden is currently the front runner. obviously lots of that is the bump from his announcement but he’s always polled well.

I do fear the Kerry effect but more than that I feel like the left’s idpol will make a trump victory in 2020 inevitable. And I say that as someone who strongly believes identity politics are the only politics.

Well, it looks like the same pattern that happened with Kavanaugh is non-partisan. Credibly accuse someone of violating consent, and some people will decide to close ranks around them.