NFL 2018 Draft Thread

And to think they could all have simply signed Marquette King. I'm sure the double whammy of Denver's air + playing in same division as Oakland was difficult to overcome for other teams, but someone had to offer him more money. Dude is a legit threat and proven. I'd take that all day over wasting a pick on a punter.

Maybe we'll find out that college punters know punting techniques that older dudes don't. Something.

Joe Flacco wrote:

I don't think I'm talking today.

Dude helped bring a championship to the city but has been Manziel-esque since.

*Legion* wrote:

Jags drafted a punter too! Aaahh!!

They did it in the 7th round at least, 10 picks from the end of the draft.

There's no correlation between draft position and kicker quality, but there is for punters; most good punters are actually drafted players. Picking one up one the 7th is an absolutely valid move. Drafting a kicker at any point whatever is silly, because undrafted kickers are just as good (if not better) than drafted ones.

Spoiler:

DAMMIT AGUAYO THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT I DIDN'T USED TO KNOW THIS I DIDN'T ASK FOR THIS

Warren Sharp wrote:

Who is teaching / coaching Lamar Jackson in Baltimore?

Mornhinweg: Vick’s OC in PHI
Roman: Kaepernick’s OC in SF

Mornhinweg turned a 54% comp, 6.7 YPA & 156 yds/gm Vick from ATL into 63% comp, 8.1 YPA & >250 yds/gm Vick. And we know how SF’s zone read took them to the SB.

https://t.co/oe8khAgwCn

The only problem I have is:

Why not Kaep?

But, still, this is the second reference I've seen to Vick's best year being under Mornhinweg.

MMQB has some good nuggets on the draft, mostly related to the Browns.

In all the interviews I'm seeing/reading with Hue Jackson I can't help but feel his time is up. Dorsey was brought in and obviously had to agree to keep him for a year, but I'm smelling a lot of fear from Hue. But that's all just me. We'll see.

Also, here's what the Pats did with the Garopollo pick:

• Chicago’s second-round pick in 2019.
• Detroit’s third-round pick in 2019.
• Part of the draft capital used to move up to take second-round cornerback Duke Dawson.
• The 178th pick this year, Arizona State outside linebacker Christian Sam.

I hate the Patriots.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Db4-ZDiWAAAbMar.jpg)

The NFL went cray cray this year.

garion333 wrote:

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Db4-ZDiWAAAbMar.jpg)

The NFL went cray cray this year.

I think that's actually pretty solid evidence that drafting a punter is a really good idea; of the 10 punters drafted since 2005, half of them are still with their original team, and the others made it 3, 4, 4, 4, and 5 years. For 3rd-5th round draft picks, I'd call that a very solid record. Also, even if they're not with the original team, a lot of those guys stuck around for a very long time.

Draft punters, kids. Also, stay in school.

Yeah, if you can draft a punter with a decent chance for 3 or 4 years out of the guy, that's solid. The chiefs have had Colquitt now for 13 years, but I bet his cap hit is larger than most other punters, too. Would be interesting to see the deep dive into the numbers, but I suspect drafting an churning punters is better than paying a great one.

But I'm assuming an awful lot. Great punters do help control field position, and in KC's case, was part of what allowed Alex Smith to get away with being so conservative and still win a lot of season games. But does it cost them when they get to postseason?

Yeah doesn't the average NFL career last 3 years or less? So anything above that is a win for a late round pick.

You folks are nuts but I don't have the time to say how an outlier at punter is worth a pick.

You know what team is not on that list?

CLE.

We win the draft!

I think you just countered garion's argument. Nice work!

garion333 wrote:

You folks are nuts but I don't have the time to say how an outlier at punter is worth a pick.

It's not an outlier; drafted punters are consistently better, just like every other position. Except kicker, of course.

How does that list not show the value of drafting a punter? They stick around. I looked at this during Aguayogate, and a pretty significant number of good punters are drafted (and basically no kickers). Drafting a punter in the 3rd is nuts, but a 5th round pick? Why not? I expanded the listed of punters drafted to include 6th and 7th round, and, yeah, a few more misses, but Brad Nortman, Pat O'Donnell, and Lac Edwards were among the league leaders in punting average last year, and they're 6th, 6th, and 7th round.

Drafting a punter with a late-round pick and the pick being worth it isn't an outlier any more than drafting a linebacker with a late-round pick and it being worth it. Actually, you likely have better odds with a punter in that case. The only reason to think drafting a punter is a bad idea is because somehow punting isn't important, and it definitely is.

Drafting kickers? Dumb. Drafting punters? Good idea.

I assume the argument is more around what is a punter actually worth and what is the difference between just grabbing a guy.

The funny part is field position etc is more nuanced.

Kicking fgs is very straight forward. What's the % and from all the ranges.

You would assume a kicker is more important but the average replacement level tells you not exactly.

Train your kid to punt not kick fgs I say.

It's not just a question of if drafted punters are better, but if the value of being the team that drafts a punter is worth the investment of a draft pick, versus being the team that signs someone else's drafted punter when they hit free agency.

And that scales significantly by round. By the trade value chart, a mid 5th rounder is worth 34 points, while a mid 7th rounder is worth 8 points. So a 5th rounder is not just somewhat more valuable than a 7th, it's over 4 times more value.

Two teams drafted up to get punters and by my understanding only the guy Seattle took is considered special in some way.

A backup LB who sees the field is going to accumulate more value than, say, Johnny Hekker (UDFA btw).

You can make an argument that punters are okay to draft, I'm okay with that but if the hit rate on them isn't 90% then you shouldn't be taking them until the end of the draft just like we do in fantasy football.

garion333 wrote:

You can make an argument that punters are okay to draft, I'm okay with that but if the hit rate on them isn't 90% then you shouldn't be taking them until the end of the draft just like we do in fantasy football.

Defense is also included in that "player" that we draft last in fantasy football.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

You can make an argument that punters are okay to draft, I'm okay with that but if the hit rate on them isn't 90% then you shouldn't be taking them until the end of the draft just like we do in fantasy football.

Defense is also included in that "player" that we draft last in fantasy football. :D

Only because it's an afterthought in the scoring we use. Obviously IDP exists (and I have no interest in it) but I wouldn't be against dropping defense under our current scoring. That roster spot would be perfect for a second kicker!

What about the punters? Is nobody thinking off the lowly punters? I want punters in FF!

garion333 wrote:

Only because it's an afterthought in the scoring we use. Obviously IDP exists (and I have no interest in it) but I wouldn't be against dropping defense under our current scoring. That roster spot would be perfect for a second kicker! :P

There's just no great way to score defense in fantasy football. IDP is terrible, it reminds me of how distorted offensive scoring was when leagues were TD-only (or mostly TD-only), drafting guys like Tommy Vardell because they'd run in 6 TDs on their 20 goal-line carries of the season. Last thing I want is drafting a linebacker who is a "stud" because his defensive line is terrible and he racks up a million tackles at the end of 6 yard rushing attempts.

But we have other threads for that. Let's get back to the important business of why Jacksonville drafting a punter in round 7 was the kind of brilliant move that will propel them to another AFC Championship Game participation trophy.

How, is he replacing Bortles?

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/ZUwjT4TrkElu8/giphy.gif)

Don't think for one moment that I wouldn't be in favor of that.

garion333 wrote:

Two teams drafted up to get punters and by my understanding only the guy Seattle took is considered special in some way.

A backup LB who sees the field is going to accumulate more value than, say, Johnny Hekker (UDFA btw).

You can make an argument that punters are okay to draft, I'm okay with that but if the hit rate on them isn't 90% then you shouldn't be taking them until the end of the draft just like we do in fantasy football.

Hekker's a UDFA, yes, but, as a punter, he's also far more valuable than a backup LB. Hekker changes the field regularly, and a good punter is a huge asset. In simple terms, your odds of getting Johnny Hekker as a UDFA are worse than getting Justin Tucker as a UDFA, so drafting one makes sense.

Also, it's not like there's some careful analysis here, but, looking at Barnwell's chart, 5th round seems like a pretty darn good place to draft a punter.

LeapingGnome wrote:

How, is he replacing Bortles?

Man, I think my monitor just caught fire.

Unrelated: Punters, like kickers, aren't real football players, and I can't believe we (meaning y'all) are talking about them. Isn't anyone (Legion) going to put together draft grades or something?

Enix wrote:

Isn't anyone (Legion) going to put together draft grades or something?

Niners: A+ (including the trade of 2nd round pick for Garoppolo)

Jaguars: F- (still Bortles)

Everyone Else: Incomplete

Packers: Ask me next Jan.

2 CBs to fix a painful secondary with the old guys back to tutor them. I can drink to that.
A punter in a 5th round. I can drink to that. Not for the same reasons.
3 WRs if Rodgers is back 100% unless they have crab pincers for hands it will work out. I can drink to that!

Not sure the lack of pass rush draft criticism is valid. You cant fix every hole in one single draft and I'm not sure how bad it really is. Wilkerson was the obvious move to help shore that up.

Wait oh ya we stole the Saints pick for next year. A+. A++++++ if the wheels fall off and they have a real bad year because the NFC South is random. They went 7-9 the 3 previous years so who knows.

Packers had a great draft.

The two corners should both become starters. I called the Jaire Alexander pick before it happened. Boring from a draft intrigue perspective, but a solid pick.

I like the pick of Josh Jackson better, because I like long press corners, and he arguably could have been taken where Alexander was.

I like them taking three were receivers. That is the way to address the position. Draft a bunch of midround guys. Attack the position with quantity. Reminds me of the draft the Jags took Robinson, Lee, and Hurns (the last one being a priority UDFA, but still a guy they targeted even after spending the other picks).

And of course, I love getting a 2019 1st while doing it.

The 1st round pick they got was the steal of the draft. No idea how they managed that.

garion333 wrote:

The 1st round pick they got was the steal of the draft. No idea how they managed that.

The Saints just fixated on a developmental FCS DE, and spent that much to get him. Pretty crazy. I did read on some article that the two second-rounders the Bills threw in with the Bucs trade would be more on some draft charts than it would take to move up to the #1 overall pick, so it's either the Packers or Bucs that win. What strikes me as very odd is how much of outliers those two trades were, and all the other trades seemed pretty reasonable and involved 3rd and later picks. The Bills and Saints just panicked.