NFL 2017 Super Bowl Thread

Fox to air Thursday Night Football for the next five years. To make room, it is expected that Fox will cancel all its popular science fiction shows.

LeapingGnome wrote:

Is Cousins demanding more than $94m over four years? Seems like they could have just kept him at that price. I think Smith is a side grade at best so I don’t really understand trading for him unless Cousins is just refusing to sign.

I was forced to listen to local DC sports radio this morning due to having to be at a place that had that on. The sports pundits that I heard seem to land on that Cousins was tired of this sh*t and wanted out and would not sign with the current regime. Said regime pulled a trade instead of letting him walk and so were able to come away with something, although they (the pundits) seemed peeved about trading Fuller as well.

I hope these people stay in charge of this franchise for a long time; their continued failure is almost as enjoyable as the Cowboys' failures.

I was surprised the Chiefs traded him so soon, but I suspect that CB Kendall Fuller was the tipping point. The Chiefs absolutely need to upgrade their secondary, and this seems like a nice addition that they won't have to draft for now. He was two years left on his rookie deal, so he's not expensive, and he seems to be a solid nickel back.

The fact that Smith has already negotiated an extension makes me feel better about it, too, as I had hoped he would not end up somewhere he hates. At the very least, He's now going to retire a very wealthy man. his seasons in KC paid off pretty darn well for him.

Rat Boy wrote:

Fox to air Thursday Night Football for the next five years. To make room, it is expected that Fox will cancel all its popular science fiction shows.

Guess they don't think that oversaturation of NFL games is one of the causes of lower viewership...

garion333 wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Fox to air Thursday Night Football for the next five years. To make room, it is expected that Fox will cancel all its popular science fiction shows.

Guess they don't think that oversaturation of NFL games is one of the causes of lower viewership...

Or they decided the lower viewership it causes is worth $550,000,000/year plus whatever they get for streaming rights

So, potential Cousins destinations are:

Arizona
NY Jets
Buffalo
Cleveland
Denver
Jacksonville

Sure, maybe Miami or Baltimore go for it, but those strike me as the six likely spots to get into a bidding war for Kirk Cousins, which is likely to be a very expensive proposition. So, if I were a team that was literally minutes from the Super Bowl without spending that much money on a QB, am I really likely to get involved in that?

Prediction: the Jaguars do not make a serious push for Kirk Cousins because he costs just far too much; he winds up in Denver or Arizona. Cleveland is Cleveland, the Jets and Bills have so many issues plus the Tom Brady factor, and Jacksonville won't pay the cost.

kaostheory wrote:
garion333 wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Fox to air Thursday Night Football for the next five years. To make room, it is expected that Fox will cancel all its popular science fiction shows.

Guess they don't think that oversaturation of NFL games is one of the causes of lower viewership...

Or they decided the lower viewership it causes is worth $550,000,000/year plus whatever they get for streaming rights

Holy wow, yeah, that's a pretty good business reason.

LeapingGnome wrote:

Is Cousins demanding more than $94m over four years?

Yes. He's probably going to top Stafford, who is $27m average per year. So if you figure $28m a year average, over 4 years that's $112m.

garion333 wrote:
kaostheory wrote:
garion333 wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Fox to air Thursday Night Football for the next five years. To make room, it is expected that Fox will cancel all its popular science fiction shows.

Guess they don't think that oversaturation of NFL games is one of the causes of lower viewership...

Or they decided the lower viewership it causes is worth $550,000,000/year plus whatever they get for streaming rights

Holy wow, yeah, that's a pretty good business reason.

Everyone forgets the context: NFL football always does well in the ratings. In other words, NFL viewership might be down, but more people watch it than anything else on TV. Sunday Night Football had 30 percent more viewers than the 10th best show on TV.

Thursday wasn't in the top 10 (I don't know where it ranked) but the nets routinely overpay for sports programming so they can use them to advertise the hell out of their PT lineups.

The flip side of all this is we'll get more Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Meh.

I know football is still insanely popular, but I had hoped they might consider Thursday night games to go away, but we're locked into them for another five crappy years.

*Legion* wrote:
LeapingGnome wrote:

Is Cousins demanding more than $94m over four years?

Yes. He's probably going to top Stafford, who is $27m average per year. So if you figure $28m a year average, over 4 years that's $112m.

I would be deeply shocked if Cousins doesn't wind up with the biggest contract in NFL history, just because there's going to be a bidding war involved.

Should I start adding Cousin's name to the jersey?

Enix wrote:

The flip side of all this is we'll get more Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Meh.

In that article it says that Buck / Aikman will not be doing TNF.

garion333 wrote:

I know football is still insanely popular, but I had hoped they might consider Thursday night games to go away, but we're locked into them for another five crappy years.

I'm with you. I'm definitely not a fan of Thursday night ball either.

tboon wrote:
Enix wrote:

The flip side of all this is we'll get more Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Meh.

In that article it says that Buck / Aikman will not be doing TNF.

Huh. Read right over that. CBS always had Pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeel and Nantz so I just assumed we'd get Buck/Aikman. That would be bad enough, but Fox's C and D teams would just make a bad night even worse. Gah.

*Legion* wrote:
LeapingGnome wrote:

Is Cousins demanding more than $94m over four years?

Yes. He's probably going to top Stafford, who is $27m average per year. So if you figure $28m a year average, over 4 years that's $112m.

Dumb, he is not worth that much of the cap. I know everyone needs a QB, but a team can get at least 80% of his production for 50% of that price.

LeapingGnome wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
LeapingGnome wrote:

Is Cousins demanding more than $94m over four years?

Yes. He's probably going to top Stafford, who is $27m average per year. So if you figure $28m a year average, over 4 years that's $112m.

Dumb, he is not worth that much of the cap. I know everyone needs a QB, but a team can get at least 80% of his production for 50% of that price.

You used the wrong verb; it's "could", not "can". If you happen to get a decent veteran who manages to play well, you could get this year's Case Keenum. If not, you get Gabbert or Cutler or what have you. When Kirk Cousins had things like "receivers" and "a real offensive plan", he was a legitimately good QB. He was 3rd in DVOA in 2016 and 7th in 2015, and showed the ability to play consistently well. He's not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in his prime, but you don't have that option. If you need a QB, Kirk Cousins is the best free agent option around, and the best one in who knows how many years.

With a rising cap, Cousins' percentage will drop year by year, and he becomes more affordable as contracts continue to escalate. If you don't take the opportunity to get him, your QB next year winds up being Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Good news, they finally tracked down Left Shark.

Can I just say how depressing it is to live in a metropolitan area I love living in, and see all these Super Bowl-related things stuck inside the Mall of America because it's inside and all these out of towners are too much of weenies to go outside?

Everybody I know hates MOA and avoids it like the plague.

Oh, sure, make my birthday this holiday, why don't you?

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DU4DMaYW0AQNG30.jpg)

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Can I just say how depressing it is to live in a metropolitan area I love living in, and see all these Super Bowl-related things stuck inside the Mall of America because it's inside and all these out of towners are too much of weenies to go outside?

Everybody I know hates MOA and avoids it like the plague.

There are plenty of indoor places around here that don't suck.

Also, it's not even cold out.

Rat Boy wrote:

Oh, sure, make my birthday this holiday, why don't you?

We got a master of subtlety over here.

iaintgotnopants wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Can I just say how depressing it is to live in a metropolitan area I love living in, and see all these Super Bowl-related things stuck inside the Mall of America because it's inside and all these out of towners are too much of weenies to go outside?

Everybody I know hates MOA and avoids it like the plague.

There are plenty of indoor places around here that don't suck.

Also, it's not even cold out.

Yeah, but most aren't big enough for the craziness. With access to the airport, light rail, and lots of space, it makes sense. And is depressing.

Cold? It's above 20 degrees. It's basically Spring.

LeapingGnome wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
LeapingGnome wrote:

Is Cousins demanding more than $94m over four years?

Yes. He's probably going to top Stafford, who is $27m average per year. So if you figure $28m a year average, over 4 years that's $112m.

Dumb, he is not worth that much of the cap. I know everyone needs a QB, but a team can get at least 80% of his production for 50% of that price.

Except you can't. Half of $28m a year would be $14m a year. That's less than Mike Glennon got last year.

All starting QBs are expensive. And they're expensive because they're rarely available. The only ones that aren't expensive ate guys on their rookie contacts.

Yards Cmp% TD Int PFRating
3,905, 60%, 31, 15, 88.0
4,093, 64%, 27, 13, 93.9

Quarterback A is Ryan Fitzpatrick when he last played 16 games (two seasons ago), he made $7.5 million.
Quarterback B is Kirk Cousins this season.

Fitzpatrick is just the first guy that popped into my head to compare to. To be fair, he made $12 million the next season.

Teams have repeatedly shown if you have good players surrounding the QB and a good defense, you don't need to spend $25 million+ on a QB. In fact doing so hurts your team because then you can't afford the other players. I wonder how many teams in the past say 3 years that made it to the conference championship games spent more then $20 million on their QB.

You just cherry picked those stats. Fitz had many poor years and a couple good ones over a long career. Cousins is in his prime and the bad year this past year wasn't horrible by any means.

Cousins career ANY/A: 6.75
Fitz career ANY/A: 5.41

He's worth the money.

I won't disagree about overpaying at one position hurts you, but the salary cap has gone up so much lately that it doesn't hurt you as much as it used to (see: Peyton Manning Era Colts).

Yep. Using the one good Fitzpatrick year in his mediocre career is like using the maybe solid year and a half Josh McCown has had in the total time of his awful career; weird stuff happens in a small sample size. If you wanted to point out the risks of Case Keenum (who has had one good year, in an albeit smaller career), that's a closer comparison. Cherry-picking one player's good season vs. another's bad season doesn't work. Here's one for you:

Yards Cmp% TD Int PFRating
2249 59.8% 9 17 67.9%

All I'm saying is 2015 proves Peyton Manning was a terrible QB who clearly does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

Cousins has been consistently good. This year, they got rid of his actual legitimate WR threats in Garcon and DSJ and replaced them with Terrelle Pryor and I literally cannot remember another receiving threat on that team other than Jordan Reed in the five minutes per year he's not hurt. For a running game, FO's stats this year list 47 RBs who had at least 100 carries. One Washington RB shows up on that list; at #47 in DVOA. The offensive line wasn't good. Cousins still managed to be at least decent. You put Deshone Kizer or Josh McCown or any of the other years of Fitzpatrick's career, and that team wins . . . three games, maybe?

Cousins is the best free agent QB available in years.

You guys may be right that that year was an outlier. I don’t know, I did not cherry pick on purpose. He was the first guy I thought of I just googled for his stats and looked at the last year he played 16 games and then looked at Cousins’ stats on the same site. Is there another decent journeyman QB that has started a bunch of games in recent years we can also look at? Keenum maybe like you said, Hoyer maybe, someone like that? I think it was Barnwell that said to look at QBs in three year blocks. Would be interesting to check the stats that way (on my phone right now).

If it was a team I root for I would not want them to spend $27 million on Cousins just because of how much I would have to give up other places.

Since I was curious and putting off doing my taxes, here are the last 48 starts of Cousins and Fitzpatrick. (closest I could come since Fitzpatrick usually doesn't start 16 games in a season so his stats are four seasons 2013-2016):

Yards, TD, Int, Pro-football Rating
Fitz - 3,850, 25, 17, 84
Cousins - 4,392, 27, 12, 98

No doubt Cousins is better than Fitzpatrick. Is that difference worth 2.5X as much though? I am sure we could find lots of QBs with Fitzpatrick-like stats.

And last four years of conference championship game QBs and their cap hits:

2014 ($10m average, 8% of the cap)
Brady - $15m
Luck - $6m
Wilson - $1m
Rodgers - $18m

2015 ($13m, 9%)
Brady - $14m
Manning - $18m
Newton - $13m
Palmer - $7m

2016 ($20m, 13%)
Brady - $14m
Roethlisberger - $24m
Ryan - $24m
Rodgers - $19m

2017 ($8m, 5%)
Brady - $14m
Bortles - $7m
Foles / Wentz - $8m
Keenum - $2m

So overall the conference champion teams had QBs that took up ~9% of the cap. If we throw out this year as an anomaly, it goes up to 10% average. At a $175 million cap next year, that means a cap hit of $17.5m should be the goal based on the past success of teams that had enough money to spend elsewhere.

I am not saying Cousins sucks or anything. I think he is a top half QB in the league. I am just saying I don't think teams should be giving a QB huge salaries like $28m to the detriment of the rest of the team and ultimately to winning, especially when they can spend in that $15-20 million range and get QB play good enough to get deep in the playoffs with a good team.

iaintgotnopants wrote:

Also, it's not even cold out.

Ok, now it's cold out.

That's also Russell Wilson on a rookie contract, and Tom Brady, who takes well below market value in order to keep the team willing. It's a patently false method of comparison.. In that list you have four utter lock first-ballot guys (Brady, Manning, Roethlesberger, Rodgers). That's 8 of those 16 QB slots, which tells you that half of the QBs in the conference championships are first-ballot HOF guys. That is, to put it mildly, statistically significant. Of the other guys, you've got Luck (who would be great if he didn't play for morons who apparently hate him, Russell Wilson (playing on a cheaper than usual rookie contract with the kind of draft position to performance ratio we haven't seen since Brady), Newton and Ryan after MVP seasons, and Carson Palmer after what could have been an MVP season. Prior to the weirdness of this year, 12 out of 12 of the QBs were great players.

An even simpler way to look at it; since 2001, the AFC's Super Bowl QB has been (with number of appearances in parentheses):

Rich Gannon (1)
Joe Flacco (1)
Ben Roethlesberger (3)
Peyton Manning (4)
Tom Brady (8)

15 of the last 18 AFC QBs in the Super Bowl are going to waltz into Canton with zero delay. Whether or not you like the idea of spending that much of the cap on a quality QB, your options are either to hope you draft one, or to suck. QBs are just that important under the current rules. $15 million gets you Mike Glennon. That is literally what $15 million of QB is worth these days. Other than that, you have to pick up guys like Keenum or Foles and hope they turn out right, or you get Fitzpatrick or McCown or Cassel or Austin Davis or some other crappy QB.