The Pentagon acknowledged a program has been running at least 2007 to 2012 investigating military and other reports of events in an attempt to determine the source of the technology or disturbance as it could be a threat to the country from foreign power or nature. This space is to discuss and debate information released or new reports to poke holes in theories and stay as skeptical as possible as well as being OK to think we don't have all the answers. Please keep this to as much fact as possible in the report and state when you start to speculate. Let's all be respectful of everyone and talk about what we don't know!
But something seems to have happened where no species has advanced far enough to contact us, even given a 9-20 billion year head start. Not a single exoplanet developed life more than a billion years before we did and survived? Seems unlikely, unless we’re the only ones who made it this far.
The need to communicate is a human trait that has developed out of how our environment and biology has shaped our cultures. An alien intelligence would have by definition arisen out of different circumstances and would almost certainly think differently than us. It might not feel compelled to try to reach out to other life in the universe, or it might not even recognize other life as being able to communicate. Maybe it’s content to just chill in it’s own solar system and has no interest in anything beyond it.
Yes, that’s a theory. You’d also have to assume they’d be wholly uninterested in the resources on this planet, or we’re just not worth the journey.
But if the universe is teeming with life 8 billion years older than us, who did nuclear fusion in 4 billion years, and quantum computing around the same time? Seems awfully empty for that hypothesis to be true.
Edit: and Jonman I agree with you that level 3 civilizations don’t exist. The question is, what prevents them from existing?
Yes, that’s a theory. You’d also have to assume they’d be wholly uninterested in the resources on this planet, or we’re just not worth the journey.
Why would a species capable of interstellar travel be interested in the resources of a single planet? There is an infinite supply of water, minerals, metals, and gasses floating freely in space, and it would be far easier to just grow their own plants and animals on a space habitat, since the likelihood of being compatible with earth biology is extremely low. Earth plants and animals (including us) would most likely be inert and indigestible to an alien, if not outright toxic.
Yep for sure! “100% of all extraterrestrials don’t care about us enough to reveal themselves to us” is absolutely plausible. I just think it’s less likely than “they aren’t there.”
Also, I’ll point out that the end result of those two things are the same, until we uncover a way to force them to reveal themselves. And we might not like what we find.
Edit: and Jonman I agree with you that level 3 civilizations don’t exist. The question is, what prevents them from existing?
The rising instability of increasingly complex systems.
We're taking several/many orders of magnitude more complex technologies than humanity currently has in order to be a L3 civilization. Think how bug-ridden modern systems/software development is, then add several zeros to that.
As you add more and more layers to the systems* stack, you have more and more potential points of failure. At some point (I propose long before the point of a functioning L3 civ), it becomes unfeasibly unwieldy and collapses.
* "Systems" in this case can be technological, sociological or political. Most likely a combination of all of those.
This all assumes that we as humans have figured out all the boundaries and realities of the universe. That our perceptions and laws are the exact correct ones and that our limits are the absolute limits.
What may seem like sci-fi to us might be commonplace to another.
Huh. I thought this week’s hearings really cemented that we haven’t ever been visited. I was profoundly disappointed with that abject lack of a shred of evidence despite having the credulous ear of the government of the deadliest country on the planet.
Huh, that's an interesting perspective. I mean, I know what I saw.
I saw two military pilots telling (under oath) that they saw and (in Fravor's case) engaged flying objects that were doing things impossible with our tech. There's sensors' data and "eyeballs data" from other pilots, according to them.
I saw a former high ranking intelligence officer telling (under oath) that US has craft and biological material that is being held and researched by informal organization using US Navy and intelligence and private sector resources. That officer multiple times emphasized that he is more than happy to brief congresspeople on any specifics he has about the persons, companies, tradecraft used to divert funds into this black op, which has no congressional or presidential oversight. Again, under oath.
Now, maybe in SCIF setting, once they're in funky soundproof bubbles or whatever is used there, he will blush and tell both Reps and Dems "it was all a prank, sorry, please carry on" and hope that AOC does not rip him a new orifice, I don't know. Seems unlikely though.
Were they lying? Ah, a very legit question. Risky but of course not without precedent. If it was just the Graves character, I would be highly skeptical, that guy gives off weird vibes. The pilots.... especially Fravor - don't seem to be. I have watched multiple interviews, he feels to me as a giddy kid who just saw something cool and awesome.
Of course, my feels mean nothing. They might all be lying. The question then is.... what the hell for?
Is it a psyop? A legit question, once again. It's been a bread and butter of intel agencies since the dawn of time. But psyop for what? Scaring Chinese into submission because US might have reverse engineered flying saucers? They are not even saying that. Creating a common enemy from outer space so instead of nuking each other, humans unite in harmony? I kind doubt that Chinese or Russians will nod and go along without actually seeing with their own eyes a concrete threat and most likely even then it would not work, I mean, come on.
Perhaps you can help me here and I really do not mean it in a snarky way. I just don't see a scenario where psyop like that can have any tangible gains while at the same time this testimony hurts Airforce and intelligence services' credibility a lot, nevermind the private sector angle. This whole thing sets up a scene where some serious heads start rolling down the road.
Are they delusional? Are they lying even though they really mean it? Legit question. Again, if it was just Grusch, I'd just shrug and say "yeh, maybe". A lone guy who's gone bonkers.
But the pilots really mess this up for me. Fravor was not a lone guy in the middle of nowhere. There were multiple other pilots involved who saw the TicTac with their own eyes. There is sensors' data. I don't see how he can be delusional here, only that he's in on a convoluted psy op that does not seem to bring any actual benefits or have a goal, only lots of collateral damage to military apparatus.
So, in light of all this, you saying that "hearings really cemented that we haven’t ever been visited" really seems weird to me. It says more about your pre-set conceptions about the whole UFO/UAP thingummy, than about any factual proofs that have been "cemented".
Seth wrote:Edit: and Jonman I agree with you that level 3 civilizations don’t exist. The question is, what prevents them from existing?
The rising instability of increasingly complex systems.
We're taking several/many orders of magnitude more complex technologies than humanity currently has in order to be a L3 civilization. Think how bug-ridden modern systems/software development is, then add several zeros to that.
As you add more and more layers to the systems* stack, you have more and more potential points of failure. At some point (I propose long before the point of a functioning L3 civ), it becomes unfeasibly unwieldy and collapses.
* "Systems" in this case can be technological, sociological or political. Most likely a combination of all of those.
Yep so that’s your Great Filter right there. The very laws of the universe would prevent it. Traveling at light speed requires infinite energy, after all. And if no other species - despite having billions of years before us could overcome it, we probably won’t either. Hence the great filter.
At which point, we are possibly doomed to a slow and lonely, sub light speed existence, forced forever to travel the galaxy in a way where thousands of generations of the descendants of the people we knew are dead before we arrive at our destination.
At which point, we are possibly doomed to a slow and lonely, sub light speed existence, forced forever to travel the galaxy in a way where thousands of generations of the descendants of the people we knew are dead before we arrive at our destination.
There's currently almost 8 billion of us. Lonely it ain't.
Generation ships are sci-fi, that ain't happening, precisely because it's commiting yourself to space-prison for the rest of your life - who wants that? I mean, sure, it'll happen for a tiny proportion of weirdos, but the rest of us need to make peace with this rock being our be-all, end-all.
I’m referring to the fact that fast travel means time passes differently for you than it does for the people you left behind. Just like it does for people on the ISS.
(I bet we can fix the problem of organic matter being too fragile for space travel within a few centuries.)
This thought exercise leads to the Great Filter, which could be behind us but is probably climate change, imo.
Industrialization appears to be the Great Filter for humanity, IMO.
So, in light of all this, you saying that "hearings really cemented that we haven’t ever been visited" really seems weird to me. It says more about your pre-set conceptions about the whole UFO/UAP thingummy, than about any factual proofs that have been "cemented".
Listen, I had the same poster that Special agent Fox Mulder had in the 90s. I want to believe. When I read through the released data and watched the UAP videos a few months ago, I was JAZZED. “This is it,” I thought. “It’s happening.” And then they scheduled this hearing and I couldn’t wait to find out what bombs would be dropped. Would this be the moment that everything changed? Would this be the day that our species finally knew, for an objective, verifiable, relatable certainty, that we weren’t alone? (Plus the far less believable stuff about our government somehow orchestrating the greatest coverup in human history?)
And instead I got a few guys saying they saw more or less the same videos I did, and someone saying he knew a guy who knew a guy who saw an alien. I mean, I know a guy who knows a guy who saw an alien.
This was there shot, and they knew it. And they brought this bush league hearsay? I haven’t been more disappointed since November 2016.
So everyone keeps saying it's hersay but what you have is a leader of the team who investigated this and blew the whistle after years of thinking he was being pranked but the data kept coming to him.
He is now providing that to Congress who have access. He can't just give it out as it's classified data, he has to stay within his whistle blowing lines. So as Most said, we are in the post record wait and see what's next period.
The hearings were to get their observations, testimony, and requests on record. They asked that laws be pasted to make portions non classified, they asked for a central data repository so teams can discuss reported sightings and a data base collected across the Intel community, and last that Congress investigate these whistle blower leads as the AARO blew them off and now claims the meetings never happened. Someone is lying and the three who are under oath are probably not it.
After the last 7 years you’d think people would understand that being under oath before Congress isn’t like a magical geas that compels truth or something and that way too many people aren’t super concerned with being caught lying on the record.
If I was a level 3 alien Civ, why would I bother hauling alien @ss (assuming I had such features let alone existed) to corner A of the Milky Way?
The mass and energy required for interstellar travel, assuming anyone can achieve a meaningful fraction of C, suggests it wouldn't be worth it. Heck, we can't even make planet hopping happen. We don't even have "rare" resources worth tracking down. Chances are, if an alien being could come this far, they wouldn't need whatever we have in our solar system.
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If I was a level 3 alien Civ, why would I bother hauling alien @ss (assuming I had such features let alone existed) to corner A of the Milky Way?
The mass and energy required for interstellar travel, assuming anyone can achieve a meaningful fraction of C, suggests it wouldn't be worth it. Heck, we can't even make planet hopping happen. We don't even have "rare" resources worth tracking down. Chances are, if an alien being could come this far, they wouldn't need whatever we have in our solar system.
Sure, this is what ruhk has been saying. It’s the backwater hypothesis: the idea that we’re in a pretty boring part of the universe so alien civilizations exist but can’t be bothered to hop across galaxies to the Milky Way to say hi.
You’ve also got a bit of Jonman’s conclusion that all life in the universe is limited by natural laws about energy collection that cannot be circumvented; that no matter how advanced a species gets, the universe prevents it from achieving intergalactic travel. The difference in technology required between traveling the solar system and the galaxy is immense, but the difference between traveling the Milky Way and making it to the next closest galaxy is almost incomprehensible. It’s entirely plausible that it’s just flat impossible for technology to overcome those obstacles.
And if we’re all forever limited to travel by the very laws of the universe to just the tiny corner of space in our host galaxies (this is sometimes referred to as the cosmic speed limit), then other hypotheses start to make sense. The Milky Way is a tiny fraction of the universe. “humans are most advanced civilization in the galaxy” is a lot more believable than “humans are the most advanced civilization in the universe” simply by matter of scale.
But also: we went from thinking our bodies move with good and bad humors to understanding that photosynthesis harnesses quantum coherence to maximize efficiency of converting light energy into carbs, and we did that in the twinkle of an eye from the perspective of a galaxy. Assuming we don’t kill ourselves, and assuming that technology can eventually work around the cosmic speed limit, I would be confident that humans would, in some form, achieve that breakthrough if someone gave us a billion years. Remember, a billion years ago we were all single celled creatures. Animals didn’t even exist yet. And a billion years from now, *and* we already have quantum computing and fusion? I don’t anything is outside the realm of possibility.
And if we theoretically could do it, why hasn’t one single other civilization done it yet?
That still sounds like the wrong question, or at least one that is rife with assumption. How long is reasonable for a species to exist? Is there any reason to believe that our imaginary space-faring aliens are still alive? What opposes the idea that there have already been space aliens that have come and gone? As many folks have stated, even disregarding our physical location, one needs to also incorporate our temporal location.
In other words, lots of other civilizations may have achieved interstellar travel, but are no longer around to pop in for a visit.
So everyone keeps saying it's hersay but what you have is a leader of the team who investigated this and blew the whistle after years of thinking he was being pranked but the data kept coming to him.
He is now providing that to Congress who have access. He can't just give it out as it's classified data, he has to stay within his whistle blowing lines. So as Most said, we are in the post record wait and see what's next period.
The hearings were to get their observations, testimony, and requests on record. They asked that laws be pasted to make portions non classified, they asked for a central data repository so teams can discuss reported sightings and a data base collected across the Intel community, and last that Congress investigate these whistle blower leads as the AARO blew them off and now claims the meetings never happened. Someone is lying and the three who are under oath are probably not it.
Man, I hope so. I hope Grusch flops some alien biologics right on the House floor and says “Welcome to Erf.”
But until then, these guys have more in common with Guiliani and Sydney Powell, running around getting millions of Americans believe the democrats stole the 2020 election, than they do with anything serious imo.
That still sounds like the wrong question, or at least one that is rife with assumption. How long is reasonable for a species to exist? Is there any reason to believe that our imaginary space-faring aliens are still alive? What opposes the idea that there have already been space aliens that have come and gone? As many folks have stated, even disregarding our physical location, one needs to also incorporate our temporal location.
In other words, lots of other civilizations may have achieved interstellar travel, but are no longer around to pop in for a visit.
Or simply are not paying attention to the tiny little bubble around our planet in which it would even be possible for them to become aware we existed. Even if they've got FTL communication (assuming its possible at all), they'd have to have something close by to pick up our non-FTL signals before they could relay it.
That still sounds like the wrong question, or at least one that is rife with assumption. How long is reasonable for a species to exist? Is there any reason to believe that our imaginary space-faring aliens are still alive? What opposes the idea that there have already been space aliens that have come and gone? As many folks have stated, even disregarding our physical location, one needs to also incorporate our temporal location.
In other words, lots of other civilizations may have achieved interstellar travel, but are no longer around to pop in for a visit.
The entire discussion of extraterrestrials is rife with assumption since all we know for sure is we have no evidence they exist. And you’re right: we have no reason to believe hypothetical intelligent spacefaring life exists, and the Great Filter posits that it does not. I do think that the evidence points toward there being single celled life somewhere in the universe since molecules self assemble into organic compounds pretty easily, but like you said this is also an assumption. Not a single microbe found on mars yet? That’s weird.
I believe that few civilizations make it as far as we have, and they die off before they make it far enough to become interstellar, let alone intergalactic. Or maybe they died off after they became intergalactic but before we existed, like you’re saying. Sort of the Prometheus style hypothesis.
But those are assumptions just like assuming they’ve made it that far is too. As others point out, they could be ignoring us or don’t know we’re here or any other hypotheses for explaining the Fermi paradox.
Ps we haven’t even gotten to my favorite explanation of the Fermi paradox, which is galaxy size Dyson Spheres: ancient interstellar civilizations just nope right out of the universe and built a wall around their entire galaxy and disappear from everyone forever.
From those F18 clips, it's pretty clear whatever anyone had back 20 years ago or even today couldn't have pulled off what the sensor data appeared to have tracked.
We can speculate all we want as to temporal and geographical proximity to other starfaring beings but if we suspend our disbelief momentarily, there's just no way an object could behave the way apparently observed. That would have ripped the wings off of anything conceived to date, let alone crushed the occupants due to inertia/G forces. I'm rather confident any global power with that kind of tech would have steamrolled every other nation had it been available. It would just invalidate all our notions of modern warfare.
If we rule out aliens, what could it have been. A ghost in the system?
You really nailed the issue though, bfgp. Currently “aliens” and “ghosts” are equally plausible answers. I am waiting with bated breath for the evidence required to tip the scales toward aliens.
Sure, this is what ruhk has been saying. It’s the backwater hypothesis: the idea that we’re in a pretty boring part of the universe so alien civilizations exist but can’t be bothered to hop across galaxies to the Milky Way to say hi.
Actually my argument wasn’t so much that we are in an uninteresting part of the universe so much as that the one of the main reasons people give for why aliens would visit, need for resources, doesn’t make sense.
It’s not that we don’t have resources aliens might want, it’s just that for a spacefaring species, resources are infinitely more plentiful in space than they are on planets. An endless supply of water, minerals, metals, and gasses are just floating out there. There’s no need to travel untold lightyears to another planet and have to deal with unfamiliar gravity and atmosphere.
Seth wrote:Sure, this is what ruhk has been saying. It’s the backwater hypothesis: the idea that we’re in a pretty boring part of the universe so alien civilizations exist but can’t be bothered to hop across galaxies to the Milky Way to say hi.
Actually my argument wasn’t so much that we are in an uninteresting part of the universe so much as that the one of the main reasons people give for why aliens would visit, need for resources, doesn’t make sense.
It’s not that we don’t have resources aliens might want, it’s just that for a spacefaring species, resources are infinitely more plentiful in space than they are on planets. An endless supply of water, minerals, metals, and gasses are just floating out there. There’s no need to travel untold lightyears to another planet and have to deal with unfamiliar gravity and atmosphere.
That’s still a backwater hypothesis though. Whether it’s because they think we are boring or because there’s nothing of value to them here, the result is the same: nobody visits.
I do think it’s a bold claim to assume we (the Sol system) don’t have any resources they’d want though. They might not have any interest in our resources, but then again they might! Everything past “we have no evidence aliens exist” is a hypothetical after all.
I do think it’s a bold claim to assume we (the Sol system) don’t have any resources they’d want though. They might not have any interest in our resources, but then again they might! Everything past “we have no evidence aliens exist” is a hypothetical after all.
Hypothetically, sure, but we know enough about the universe to know that there’s basically an endless supply of resources floating around in asteroids, comets, planetary rings, etc. We’ve even detected masses of free-floating water and water vapor trillions of times larger than the entire Earth. The hardest part is getting up into space to get the stuff, but a spacefaring civilization would basically have everything it needs and would never need to visit another planet for any of that stuff.
Well, so far as we’ve been able to tell, one of the rarest things in the universe seems to be organic matter. And we just happen to be teeming with it!
Well, so far as we’ve been able to tell, one of the rarest things in the universe seems to be organic matter. And we just happen to be teeming with it!
Despite how sci-fi depicts alien planets, you wouldn’t just be able to pop down on one and start eating an alien fruit. At best it would be totally inert and you’d just pass it undigested without deriving any nutrients from it. At worst it could kill you in a horrible way. Humans can interact with most organic life on Earth because we’re all descended from the same ancestors and have the same basic building blocks. Unless the panspermia theory is true, aliens will have derived from a completely different ecosystem which by definition wouldn’t be compatible.
For example, take proteins. Proteins appear in basically everything on earth and are important for the vital functioning of life. Aliens might have proteins, and they may very closely resemble proteins found in earth life, but they will still be functionally and structurally different than earth proteins because they arose in a different ecosystem. It’s possible this might not be an issue for alien biology, but we know for a fact that very bad stuff can happen inside an earth organism when we come into contact with earth proteins that are slightly the wrong shape, from cell death to tumors to truly horrible diseases like Cruetzfeld-Jakobs. You don’t even need to consume the proteins that cause CJD, just casual contact can lead to infection. I work in a lab that occasionally processes CJD specimens and the cleaning process literally takes several hours after each specimen.
Well, so far as we’ve been able to tell, one of the rarest things in the universe seems to be organic matter. And we just happen to be teeming with it!
Honest question since I’m no expert. Are we able to detect that beyond our observable space? How are we determining that?
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