[Discussion] North Korea - Hot or Not?

Discuss current and near-future events and consequences of actions in the Korean Peninsula.

Yeah, and I miss his GOP, which just incompetent and selfish. Radical can go screw itself. Dubya would have lost out in the primaries, this time around.

Robear wrote:

Yeah, and I miss his GOP, which just incompetent and selfish. Radical can go screw itself. Dubya would have lost out in the primaries, this time around.

Yeah, poor Jubya! wouldn't have tried to start WWIII in his first 100 days. Although, I have to say Donnie disappoints, he couldn't even start a war in the first 100. He tried with Russia and NK.

We'd all be a lot safer if someone just kept 45's twitter password from him like they did preceding the election.

He's the President. He can just call up the NSA and get it, right?

Somebody has to mention it on "Fox and Friends."

The latest Dan Carlin podcast has some great points on the current Korean situation. And while I agree the situation hasn't changed all that much since I was stationed on the DMZ back in 94, I think there are big differences in the leaders involved. The youngest Kim seems to have a more tenuous grip on power than His granddad who had a lot of cred for his actions in WW 2 and the first Korean War. And Trump's impulsiveness scares me. Remember that Clinton almost bombed North Korea in the early 90s. I could see Trump finally pulling a strike that kicks off a new war.

Yeah, and with the Russians and Chinese both hanging around the borders, that adds serious complexity.

Robear wrote:

Yeah, and with the Russians and Chinese both hanging around the borders, that adds serious complexity.

In fairness, China and Russia are worried that as soon as the missiles start flying, there will be a mass human exodus from North Korea which would create massive economic and political problems at home. Given the population size of North Korea, it may end up an even greater humanitarian/refugee disaster than Syria.

So apparently China's ordering its people to leave North Korea... Also N. Korea issues direct criticism of China amid nuke dispute. Interesting times we're in.

Yeah, well, Europe handled the Syria refugee crisis flawlessly, and China's got even more concern for human rights, so... No problem, right? Trump can cross *that* problem off his list...

Imagine living 25 years of your life with this feeling.

Wow! 21 years of knowing the world could be annihilated in less than an hour.
I wonder how much the power vacuum left by the release of the cold war is responsible for the rampant narcissism and willful ignorance of today. But then I remember the Reagan 80's.

I actually think there is a real chance of breaking the status quo this time.

Apparently Un's brother that was assassinated on foreign soil was someone China had close ties with (quite possibly a big reason he was assassinated). I can see that being a breaking point for China's strained patience.

On the U.S. side Trump is a person who has shown himself incredibly willing to break from traditional U.S. positions. This may mean that he is willing to offer things to China to get their consent or even cooperation for military intervention that other Presidents haven't accepted in the past, and will be unlikely to accept after Trump.

For example, what if Trump publicly supported China's claim to some/all of those islands in the South China Sea? I can see Trump not really caring whether the Philippines/China/whomever ends up with them, and viewing them as a free negotiating chip that doesn't really cost the US anything.

I'm not saying that particular example is likely, for example Mattis would surely council against Chinese access to those islands, but in general the fact that Trump's thoughts on Asia are so unknown/non-existent means that there is a lot more uncertainty for the sort of carrots that are now available to entice China to give us the go ahead to destabilize NK.

Although the fact that Bannon seems to be on the outs does probably dramatically limit the wildcard nature of Trump's Presidency... thank goodness.

Yonder wrote:

For example, what if Trump publicly supported China's claim to some/all of those islands in the South China Sea? I can see Trump not really caring whether the Philippines/China/whomever ends up with them, and viewing them as a free negotiating chip that doesn't really cost the US anything.

Nah. Duerte's his buddy. Trump's got his back.

Jonman wrote:
Yonder wrote:

For example, what if Trump publicly supported China's claim to some/all of those islands in the South China Sea? I can see Trump not really caring whether the Philippines/China/whomever ends up with them, and viewing them as a free negotiating chip that doesn't really cost the US anything.

Nah. Duerte's his buddy. Trump's got his back.

Not to mention (and probably more importantly) Trump has property in the Philippines he'd probably like to keep running.

South China Sea is already in China's grasp. That's not a bargaining chip because their missiles and aircraft are already sitting pretty on those artificial islands.

Quite frankly, the last thing China needs is a nuclear war on its doorstep plus a mass humanitarian disaster with North Koreans fleeing en masse. They've already moved diplomatically (which explains why N Korea made a scathing comment about China) so I think we'll see the situation cool down over the next month or so.

Jonman wrote:
Yonder wrote:

For example, what if Trump publicly supported China's claim to some/all of those islands in the South China Sea? I can see Trump not really caring whether the Philippines/China/whomever ends up with them, and viewing them as a free negotiating chip that doesn't really cost the US anything.

Nah. Duerte's his buddy. Trump's got his back.

Trump does like to play people against each other, wouldn't surprise me if does that with Asia.

"Cooling down" does not meet the success criteria. Trump's out to get the Norks nukes. And the threat stands that if they test again, we'll do something.

Even cold, it's not solved.

And if we launch the first strike, and Seoul mostly ceases to exist -- possibly under a radioactive cloud -- that's going to be just so, so helpful.

I can totally see that outcome, too. I don't think that's a war anyone wins.

"Nork" is not an expression I have ever seen or heard outside of the Homefront games. Is that a real thing?

Isn't it kind of derogatory

It sounds too much like "snorks" to me, and I despised that cartoon growing up, so I can't help but read "norks" as derogatory. I mean, I get that it's short for North Korean, but...

Looks like South Korea just voted in a president that rejects all of this needless escalation.

Paleocon wrote:

Looks like South Korea just voted in a president that rejects all of this needless escalation.

A few dozen Tomahawks should remind those hippie peaceniks that America is the only country that cares about them!

Reaper81 wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Looks like South Korea just voted in a president that rejects all of this needless escalation.

A few dozen Tomahawks should remind those hippie peaceniks that America is the only country that cares about them!

Well when you say it like that who else can we help with our humanitarian Tomahawks efforts.

Reaper81 wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Looks like South Korea just voted in a president that rejects all of this needless escalation.

A few dozen Tomahawks should remind those hippie peaceniks that America is the only country that cares about them!

Sadly, I suspect that this is not too far from the foreseeable.

There is just too much incentive to maintain the illusion of crisis here. And the cost to the folks in charge in the White House is negligible. It is just a bunch of little yellow bastards that will have to pay his butcher's bill.

Paleocon wrote:
Reaper81 wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Looks like South Korea just voted in a president that rejects all of this needless escalation.

A few dozen Tomahawks should remind those hippie peaceniks that America is the only country that cares about them!

Sadly, I suspect that this is not too far from the foreseeable.

There is just too much incentive to maintain the illusion of crisis here. And the cost to the folks in charge in the White House is negligible. It is just a bunch of little yellow bastards that will have to pay his butcher's bill.

Also, we should Tomahawk France and Germany, just to be on the safe side.

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North Korea fires missile that lands in sea near Russia

North Korea, defying calls to rein in its weapons program, fired a ballistic missile that landed in the sea near Russia on Sunday, days after a new leader came to power in South Korea pledging to engage Pyongyang in dialogue.

The U.S. military's Pacific Command said it was assessing the type of missile that was fired but it was "not consistent with an intercontinental ballistic missile". The U.S. threat assessment has not changed from a national security standpoint, a U.S. official said.

Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada said the missile could be a new type. It flew for 30 minutes before dropping into the sea between North Korea's east coast and Japan. North Korea has consistently test-fired missiles in that direction.

U.S. says Trump 'can't imagine Russia pleased' with North Korea missile

U.S. President Donald Trump "cannot imagine Russia is pleased" with North Korea's latest missile test on Sunday, as it landed closer to Russia than to Japan, the White House said in a statement.

"With the missile impacting so close to Russian soil – in fact, closer to Russia than to Japan – the President cannot imagine that Russia is pleased," the White House said in its statement.

Though there's a catch: The Russians say they don't care.

But the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement, "The given rocket launch posed no danger to the Russian Federation. The resources of the Russian early warning system about [the] rocket attack and the monitoring missile defense forces will maintain combat watch in scheduled mode.