2017 MLB Season Thread

Moral of the recent stories: don't root for Florida baseball teams.

Also: If you sign a team-friendly contract (which I assume means taking less money than you could have), get a no-trade clause.

They traded him AND cash for a bunch of nobodies with crappy contracts. Even if I hated a trade I could respect if they got something out of it.

Speaking of Florida baseball...

I don't think what they got is as bad as you are characterizing it. And worse, I can tell you that most Cardinal fans wanted nothing to dot with him because his age, trending stats, and contract. I get the sentiment, but had Longoria waited and tested the free agency market, he probably doesn't get a ton more.

He had his first major dip in 2014, which would have been his last season before testing the market, and that dip continued into the next season. He did regain form in 2016, with 36 HR and an OPS of .842. Over his last 4 seasons his OPS have been .724, .764, .840, .737. His HR totals were 22, 21, 36, 20.

What would you guess his next four years are going to look like, at 33, 34, 35. and 36? Even the team friendly deal he signed looks bad when you are going to be paying him more over the next 4 years, when his output will probably decline. And he could fall off a cliff at any moment. It would not surprise me if he fails to hit 20 HRs in a season ever again.

As far what they got back:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/stor...

Why the Rays made the deal: It's no fun trading away the face of the franchise and the greatest player in team history, but given the years left on Longoria's contract, his declining bat and the state of the Rays in comparison to the Red Sox and Yankees, it made sense to trade Longoria before his value craters any further and they would potentially be left with a highly-paid player who isn't much above replacement level.

Did they get enough in return? Arroyo ranks as MLB.com's No. 1 Giants prospect and we've been hearing about him since he was a first-round pick in 2013. He also looks like a classic tweener -- not enough glove to stick at shortstop and not enough bat to hold down third base. His production in the minors has never matched the hype, other than a 91 at-bat stretch at Triple-A in 2017 when he hit .396/.461/.604. Otherwise, he's never hit for much power, doesn't walk much and was destroyed in his major league debut, hitting .192/.244/.304 in 125 at-bats. I think he's one of the more overrated prospects in the minors and probably projects as a utility guy. Put it this way: If the Giants believed in his bat, they wouldn't have traded him. He does have good contact skills and maybe the Rays can get him to change his launch angle or something, but barring that, he's not an impact player.

If anything, the keys to the trade for Tampa are Krook and Woods. Krook is the more interesting prospect, a lefty taken in the fourth round in 2016 out of the University of Oregon. He has a Tommy John surgery in his past, but throws 92-94 and scouts rave about his plus curveball. At Class A San Jose he posted a 5.12 ERA -- he had 105 strikeouts and just 75 hits in 91.1 innings, but walked 66 batters. It's all about the control if he's going to develop as a starter, and the Rays have certainly had success developing these kinds of arms.

The Rays actually drafted Woods in 2013 out of high school, but he instead attended Albany, and the Giants drafted him in the eighth round in 2016. As with Krook, he has a good arm and shaky command, walking 64 in 110 innings at Class A Augusta. Both are worthwhile gambles, but also more likely to end up in the bullpen if they even reach the majors.

They were looking at what they could get now versus getting nothing and paying Longoria for much worse seasons than they need at that position. They were not going to get a ton, because everyone else in baseball knows the math, too.

Maybe if he is just another player but you are talking about the face of the team and the legit fan favorite. Even declining he is one of the best on the team and the fans also wanted him to retire there (him as well).

I wonder if this was intentional to drop ticket sales even further to get the go ahead to sell the team to another area since they have always failed to build a new stadium in a better area.

Rat Boy wrote:

Moral of the recent stories: don't root for Florida baseball teams.

28th and 30th in total attendance for the 2017 season

I'm not sure how to fix either team. Marlins previous ownership left the team $400M in the hole after fleecing the city for a publicly funded stadium. Plus they don't have the added revenue of a tv contract so it seems like yet another fire sale was the only way to resolve the current situation. Can't blame Jeter for the recent moves.

I don't know enough about the Rays to speak intelligently, but dead last in attendance is hard to stomach...especially when you share a division with the Yanks and Red Sox.

Question: if either team (or both) were to move, where would they go? Not saying it'll happen, just curious.

mindset.threat wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Moral of the recent stories: don't root for Florida baseball teams.

28th and 30th in total attendance for the 2017 season

I'm not sure how to fix either team. Marlins previous ownership left the team $400M in the hole after fleecing the city for a publicly funded stadium. Plus they don't have the added revenue of a tv contract so it seems like yet another fire sale was the only way to resolve the current situation. Can't blame Jeter for the recent moves.

I think there's a very good argument for blaming Jeter for the returns of Gordon, Stanton, and Ozuna. They got, at best, interesting prospects.

The Marlins are just doing what the Astros did to rebuild. Shed contracts, accumulate prospects.

The reason a team like the Cardinals can’t away with that, which is what they should be doing now, is that they still draw 2 million, even in a down year. The Marlins and Rays have to tank to build a product fans will come see because they can’t make money by keeping stars around when they are not winning.

Moneyball affects all aspects of running a franchise. If you can get by on $40 million less a year,a three year rebuild will give you $120 million to spend to boost a team that finally gets competive, and you have a deeper roster.

The alternative is for MLB to abandon Florida. They can have spring training, but there doesn’t seem to be a path to profitable baseball there. Anyone (except Atlanta) can draw when a team wins. But if fans disappear in numbers like we see in Florida if the teams are merely average, it just makes fielding a competive team harder.

Until MLB adopts revenue sharing closer to the scale of the NFL, some markets just have to accept that their teams may tank for a few years in order to afford a team that can compete later.

As for what Florida got for Stanton, that was hampered by his no-trade clause. The Cardinals were willing to sell the house to get him. But he blocked both St. Louis and San Francisco.

They had to dump his contract, so combined with the nearly $300 million he has due to him, the Yankees had all the leverage.

But this is the system at work. People love to point out the small markets that win, ignoring just how much greater the cost is when locking up your stars puts you at risk of bankruptcy.