NFL 2017: Offseason / Pre-Draft

PFF has a new mock draft up. Yeah, nothing weird there, it's mock draft season after all, but there are two notable things:

1. They have the Jets trading up to #2 to take Trubinsky, and the 49ers take yet another defensive lineman further down, because Jeff Fisher is apparently the coach. Fine, whatever. Makes sense for the Jets.

2. Jacksonville takes DeShaun Watson. Good God, the humor value built into this . . . I think I would actually explode.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

So, you know, the Mike Glennon deal is starting to look pretty good, right?

I mean, I don't know why anyone would even whisper about McCown or Geno while Romo and Cutler are still out there, but... yeah. Glennon profited from a market where he was not old, not terrible, and had some upside, whereas most of the market had 0 or 1 of those.

2. Jacksonville takes DeShaun Watson. Good God, the humor value built into this . . . I think I would actually explode.

I don't doubt the Jaguars will take a QB in the draft, but I don't see it at the top. Part of why Doug Marrone got the job was to "fix" Bortles. If they get nowhere in 2017, then sure, they make their top pick in 2018 a quarterback, but I don't see it in 2017.

and the 49ers take yet another defensive lineman further down, because Jeff Fisher is apparently the coach

Well the 49ers are switching to a 4-3 and need an edge rusher, and the offensive line crop is crap at the top of the draft. One of the wide receivers would sure be nice though.

*Legion* wrote:

Well the 49ers are switching to a 4-3 and need an edge rusher, and the offensive line crop is crap at the top of the draft. One of the wide receivers would sure be nice though.

Why? You got Juszczyk, you should be set.

Gonna use him more than the Ravens did, only playing him on 41% of their snaps.

Gonna turn that dude into the next Larry Centers!

*Legion* wrote:

Gonna use him more than the Ravens did, only playing him on 41% of their snaps.

Gonna turn that dude into the next Larry Centers!

Well, based on the skills of the QBs on the roster, passes to the fullback are about as deep of an accurate pass as you could reasonably expect.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Gonna use him more than the Ravens did, only playing him on 41% of their snaps.

Gonna turn that dude into the next Larry Centers!

Well, based on the skills of the QBs on the roster, passes to the fullback are about as deep of an accurate pass as you could reasonably expect.

I better not see any "Likes" on this post.

EDIT: I hate every one of you.

*Legion* wrote:

Gonna use him more than the Ravens did, only playing him on 41% of their snaps.

Gonna turn that dude into the next Larry Centers!

Who?

garion333 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Gonna use him more than the Ravens did, only playing him on 41% of their snaps.

Gonna turn that dude into the next Larry Centers!

Who?

This offends me more than Milkman's post getting Liked.

Looks like Eddie Lacy has agreed to a one year deal with the Seahawks, which seems like a match made in heaven since they clearly need someone to run through a lot of defenders.

garion333 wrote:

Looks like Eddie Lacy has agreed to a one year deal with the Seahawks, which seems like a match made in heaven since they clearly need someone to run through a lot of defenders.

I don't like this either.

Hopefully they get fat Lacy.

I'm not much on mock drafts, but Danny Kelly's mock over at the Ringer, well, doesn't have Deshaun Watson going in the 1st at all:

After a brilliant college career, sterling performances in back-to-back national championship games, and an impressive combine, Deshaun Watson has all the narrative markers of a top selection come April. Just about every mock draft pegs the two-time Heisman Trophy finalist as a first-round pick, and many expect he’ll be the first quarterback off the board.

Except for this one.

While Watson is a proven winner with all the intangibles of a leader and big-time gamer that scouts look for, too much of his non-Alabama game tape doesn’t project well to the pros. He’s thrown 30 interceptions over the past two seasons, and defenses in the NFL are only going to be more opportunistic. His deep-ball accuracy has been inconsistent, and that will allow opposing secondaries to creep toward the line of scrimmage. Plus, there’s bound to be added concern about arm strength after he registered by far the lowest velocity on his throws at the combine. On top of all that, there’s his inexperience in a pro-style system taking snaps from under center.

Most of the teams picking early need a quarterback, but missing with a top-10 quarterback selection is the easiest way to get fired in the NFL. This isn’t a good draft for quarterbacks, and I think teams at the top of the draft are going to pass on signal-callers in favor of safer picks at other premium positions. Once you get into the teens, though, you start talking about teams that have a capable starter and can let a quarterback sit for a year or two and develop — and both DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky have more projectable tools and higher upsides than Watson. And as you get into the 20s and 30s, it’s mostly teams who have an entrenched starter and are looking for players to help them win now.

This isn’t to say that Watson has no chance of being a good pro. Projecting quarterback performance at the NFL level is one of the hardest things to do in all of sports, and there’s a reason Derek Carr was a second-rounder, Russell Wilson went in the third, and Dak Prescott fell to the fourth: Teams get this position wrong all the time.

Almost every mock draft gets a lot wrong, too, and there are plenty of realistic future timelines for how the first round plays out. But right now, considering the distribution of QB talent throughout the league, how stocked other positions in this class are, and the upside offered by Watson’s competitors, there’s a chance he falls into Round 2 — unless someone trades up at the end of the first.

The QB consensus is that there is no consensus.

But it also doesn't feel like a "nobody but E.J. Manual" 1st round either.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Looks like Eddie Lacy has agreed to a one year deal with the Seahawks, which seems like a match made in heaven since they clearly need someone to run through a lot of defenders.

I don't like this either.

Hopefully they get fat Lacy.

Boo!

Fat or skinny I think the biggest concern with him is if he can stay healthy.

He turns 27 in June which in RB years is either 27 or 55.

Cook/Lacy out Bennett in? I'll take that as net positive. Not really happy with all the other stuff thats going on tho TBH. Peppers :/ Jones :/ Lang :/ Hyde :/

I think consistency is somewhat underrated. Sure you can re-fill holes but shuffling the deck too much and you lose that cohesion.

When does signing free agents not count against your compensatory picks? After the draft? Next week?

garion333 wrote:

When does signing free agents not count against your compensatory picks? After the draft? Next week?

July 22.

The latest from The Draw Play, starring Don't Care Bear and Neck Bear. Betcha can't guess who's who!

http://www.thedrawplay.com/comic/dont-care-bear-leaves-bearland/

jowner wrote:

Peppers :/ Jones :/ Lang :/ Hyde :/

I'm actually OK with losing everyone on that list other than Lang. I'm not sure Jason Spriggs, Lane Taylor, or Don Barclay are even going to be serviceable over the course of a season. Ted Thompson usually knows what he's doing, but I can't help but be skeptical.

Jones just doesn't look like a good fit for the 3-4. Hyde did a lot when asked but wasn't better at any one thing than anyone else in a (healthy) defensive secondary.
Peppers wasn't going to be with the team much longer regardless, and they've got some young guys to use situationally who are on the upswing of their careers. It's definitely more in-line with the team's philosophy to let someone like Peppers go a year too early rather than a year too late, especially when they've got some younger folks they'd like to work with more.

Hightower back to the Patriots.

Revis cleared of all charges.

Eddie Lacy probably still really fat.

If Lacy is so fat, why didn't he sign with Tampa?

Phishposer wrote:

I'm actually OK with losing everyone on that list other than Lang. I'm not sure Jason Spriggs, Lane Taylor, or Don Barclay are even going to be serviceable over the course of a season. Ted Thompson usually knows what he's doing, but I can't help but be skeptical.

Losing interior linemen that they drafted in the mid rounds or later to sizable free agency contracts is the Packers way. It was TJ Lang (4th rounder) this year, it was Josh Sitton (4th) a year ago, Evan Deitrich-Smith (UDFA) a couple years before that, Scott Wells (7th) before him, and Jason Spitz (3rd) before him.

I would pretty much expect another guard or two coming to that roster between rounds 3 and 5 that will work his way into the mix.

49ers trade for Jeremy Zuttah from the Ravens.

The Ravens were going to cut Zuttah in a salary cap move, but the Niners swooped in and grabbed him in a trade rather than let him hit the market.

Zuttah was a Pro Bowl alternate last year and the 13th highest graded center by PFF. Zuttah is undersized, which makes him a better fit for the Shanahan system than most other landing spots.

His existing deal isn't bad, he's only the 15th highest paid center, but the Ravens have only $5 mil and change in cap space and have to clear room. The trade was just a swap of 6th round picks, moving the Ravens up 12 spots, which for them is better than the nothing they were going to get with his release.

After taking on Zuttah's contract, the 49ers will still have the most free cap space in the league at about $80 million, about $19 million more (or approximately 1.2 Brock Osweilers) than the second place Browns.

You win the cap space Super Bowl!!! Yay!!

Jayhawker wrote:

If Lacy is so fat, why didn't he sign with Tampa?

Lacy isn't a QB.

Probably would be an upgrade at their kicker position though.

*Legion* wrote:

I would pretty much expect another guard or two coming to that roster between rounds 3 and 5 that will work his way into the mix.

Phishposer wrote:

Ted Thompson usually knows what he's doing, but I can't help but be skeptical.

It's just hard to lose a pro bowler and hope for the next man up. Doubly so with the way Rodgers works in the pocket.

about $19 million more (or approximately 1.2 Brock Osweilers)

Ha! Ouch.

TheGameguru wrote:

You win the cap space Super Bowl!!! Yay!!

Well the point is that even after their signings so far, they still have a ton of room to use. And really need to use, because $80 mil is too much unspent money for salary floor purposes.

Well, they now have the leagues highest paid fullback by quite a margin, so next I expect they'll shell out $20 mil for Revis and $30 mil for one of the McCowns. Doesn't matter which one.

Spoiler:

That's my roundabout way of saying "where can they spend that money at this point?" Poe. And...? Cutler?

are they saving up for a romo bidding war?

I don't believe this article is behind their pay wall, but (Doctor) Jene Bramell has some updated thoughts on major injuries around the league. His take on Andrew Luck and Teddy Bridgewater are the most interesting to me:

ANDREW LUCK | RIGHT SHOULDER SURGERY
No one wants to have surgery. That includes elite professional athletes, who often recognize that some surgical interventions are there's-no-good-choice-here situations.

Remove a fragment of torn meniscus rather than repairing it with stitches and you return more quickly but likely have a shorter career with an increase in the risk of arthritis and microfracture procedures. Choose to tighten up certain ankle ligaments rather than hope for the best with rehab and you're looking at a lengthy and frustrating rehab before you return to form. Address your herniated disc surgically and you'll likely have a good outcome but understand that it'll take longer than you expect/hope to regain core muscle strength and flexibility. Rush your rehab with any surgical procedure and you're at risk of setbacks or compensatory/cascade injury.

Andrew Luck has been fighting through a shoulder condition for some time. The Colts first acknowledged it on the injury report last season; Will Carroll reported last year Luck suffered a shoulder subluxation in Week 3. Luck's 2015 season was erratic. His completion percentage was just 55.3%, down from the 60-61% numbers the two seasons prior. But a strengthening and stability program seemed effective last offseason. In 2016, Luck's completion percentage soared to 63.5%, he looked much more comfortable in the pocket, and his adjusted yards per attempt and interception percentage returned to pre-2015 levels (or better).

There were hints of a frayed labrum in 2015, which suggests normal wear-and-tear in an overhead throwing athlete. But the Colts kept Luck on a throwing program last season and the report of a subluxation event (partial shoulder dislocation) strongly argue that Luck had more than minor labral damage. January's surgery all but confirms that Luck had a labral tear that could put him at risk of further shoulder damage with future hits or increase his risk of ineffectiveness over time if his shoulder again became symptomatic with throwing.

Neither the Colts nor Luck have confirmed specifics on the surgery. They provided no timetable, other than to hint they do not expect him to return for offseason activities. Ian Rapoport tweeted a timeline suggesting three months of rehab before Luck is cleared to throw and six months for a full return.

All of the above fit the progression and decision-making process for a labral repair. RotoViz analyst and noted upper extremity orthopedic specialist Jeff Budoff speculated the same last year. There's good reason for Luck to have tried hard to avoid surgery -- there are many success stories but the overall track record for recovery in overhead-throwing athletes isn't great. Admittedly, there aren't many comps for elite quarterbacks. Drew Brees recovered from a similar surgery, but also had a complicating rotator cuff injury. Dr. James Andrews still talks about how impressive Brees' recovery was.

We're not likely to get much information on Luck's rehab in the coming months. For now, there's no reason not to be optimistic for a full recovery but don't expect to see Luck until the early days of training camp. The Colts will not rush Luck's throwing program in any way.

TEDDY BRIDGEWATER | LEFT KNEE DISLOCATION / MULTI-LIGAMENT REPAIR
Players are carted off the field often in practice and games. Some leave the locker room by ambulance for additional evaluation. It's thankfully rare for a player to need emergent transportation for injury -- and exceedingly rare for a joint injury. Unfortunately, Bridgewater's knee dislocation met that standard. Bridgewater reportedly avoided nerve and blood vessel injuries but required repair of multiple knee ligaments and continues his long and difficult rehab.

Bridgewater hasn't updated his status but the Vikings have been very guarded in their optimism since the season ended. Mike Zimmer told reporters in late January he was "worried about Teddy getting better" and acknowledged the difficulty of putting a timetable on Bridgewater's return because no two injuries of this severity are similar enough to estimate accurately. General manager Rick Spielman told reporters last week it would be "totally unfair" to put a timetable on Bridgewater's rehab and said the current focus was still on regaining range of motion. Former NFL team orthopedic surgeon Dr. David Chao tweeted that a 90% recovery after knee dislocation should be considered a "great result."

Bridgewater wasn't a threat to lead all quarterbacks in rushing attempts and rushing yards but mobility was an important part of his game. Front leg stability is also critical to throwing accuracy. It's also fair to wonder how high the mental hurdle to climbing the pocket in the face of an NFL pass rush may prove to be for Bridgewater. The Vikings say they are "hopeful" for 2017 and it's too soon to put an accurate endpoint on Bridgewater's rehab, but an effective return this season is a very tough ask.

It's too soon to write Bridgewater off entirely. But physical recovery isn't the only issue of note here. Sam Bradford is not yet under contract for 2018. The Vikings must make a decision on whether to exercise the fifth-year option on Bridgewater before he's had time to fully recover. And Bridgewater's biggest supporter may have been now-fired offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Bridgewater may have to prove himself fully recovered with another team.

garion333 wrote:

That's my roundabout way of saying "where can they spend that money at this point?" Poe. And...? Cutler?

Well, for sure there's going to be a large chunk that rolls into 2018. But that number can't be $80 million.

Poe would be nice. I think it's more likely that they look at an edge rusher that could put their hand down in a 4-3. Connor Barwin and Elvis Dumervil are options there.

I expect they'll at least look into signing a veteran RB to pair with Carlos Hyde. Maybe someone like Jamaal Charles.

There are some good players who aren't "names" yet, guys coming off their rookie deals. Kevin Minter out of Arizona is one I'd love to see line up next to Bowman. He was an ILB in Arizona but I think he can move outside. They already signed Malcolm Smith, but they're letting both Gerald Hodges and Michael Wilhoite leave, so signing another LB in the realm of possibility. Zach Brown a possibility there too.

SF could be the one that rolls the dice on Morris Claiborne. It seems like talks with the Ravens have stalled, he's wanting more than they seem to be willing to give. They could look at a veteran stopgap like Leon Hall. Brandon Carr is out there. Some guys who could stop the CB bleeding.