NFL 2016: Week 13

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Ugh. So I got pulled into a last minute business trip, so I'll be traveling today and won't be online to write this post. I'm just gonna have to throw it up now without any words. Sorry. You'll survive.

Pick 'Ems

Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Kansas City at Atlanta
San Francisco at Chicago
Miami at Baltimore
Indianapolis at New York Jets

Make your Week 13 picks now!

Week 12 Results
PorkSmoothie89: 4-1
Stele: 4-1
Rat Boy: 4-1
karmajay: 4-1
Zaque: 4-1
Abu5217: 3-2
oldmanscene24: 3-2
Torq: 3-2
ballnchained: 3-2
Jayhawker: 3-2
garion333: 3-2
onewild: 3-2
Infyrnos: 3-2
Bighoppa: 3-2
EvilDead: 3-2
cube: 3-2
jonfentyler: 3-2
Oddsmakers: 3-2
UpToIsomorphism: 2-3
Bubs14: 2-3
Vector: 2-3
Certis: 2-3
MilkmanDanimal: 2-3
*Legion*: 2-3
tboon: 2-3
iaintgotnopants: 2-3
MoonDragon: 2-3
TheGameGuru: 1-4
Top_Shelf: 1-4
LeapingGnome: 1-4

Season to Date
Bighoppa: 38-21
ballnchained: 38-21
Bubs14: 37-22
Oddsmakers: 36-23
jonfentyler: 35-24
Jayhawker: 35-20
Abu5217: 34-20
EvilDead: 34-25
Certis: 34-20
iaintgotnopants: 34-25
Torq: 33-26
tboon: 33-26
PorkSmoothie89: 33-26
Rat Boy: 32-27
MilkmanDanimal: 32-27
onewild: 32-22
*Legion*: 32-27
Infyrnos: 32-27
garion333: 31-23
karmajay: 30-29
Zaque: 30-24
TheGameGuru: 30-29
MoonDragon: 30-29
UpToIsomorphism: 29-30
oldmanscene24: 29-30
LeapingGnome: 27-32
Minase: 27-22
cube: 26-33
Vector: 23-36
Kush15: 18-17
Top_Shelf: 17-22
Stele: 16-24
Paleocon: 15-10
Running Man: 14-10
Jowner: 4-1
Gumbie: 3-2
Nomad: 2-3
Docjoe: 2-3

PANTHERS! he says with little confidence.

If you want to see what terrible O-line play looks like, make sure to check out the Panthers-Seahawks game on Sunday night. Cris Collinsworth is pre-loading Advil before he calls this game.

I don't know what's up with Seattle. But Carolina's O-line consists of:

LT: The guy who started at RT all last season
LG: The only guy still in his Week 1 position
C: The third-string guy who has been cut by three teams (including Carolina!) already this season; his backup is a guy who started 49 games with the Patriots from 2010-14. (I think his Fresno State degree is what relegated him to second string.)
RG: Who cares?! It doesn't matter. I think it's the guy who sucks at RT.
RT: Carolina's all-pro RG; he's a great RG but a terrible RT. He's No. 70 in this video.

And speaking of Khalil Mack (the star of the video in the link above), this play. It was like watching a shorter version of Julius Peppers from a few years ago.

IMAGE(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Gue69lM1_XF6I9kYfeuaLR38Yh8=/0x0:505x300/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:505x300):no_upscale()/cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7541901/mack.0.gif)

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals: I'm beginning to think that Andy Dalton without really good receivers is maybe not anywhere near as good of a QB.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons: I'd really like it if KC's pass rush could show up and whack Matt Ryan's giant melon back and forth like an opening day bobblehead. TV show idea; Matt Ryan and Mike Glennon put on giraffe costumes, head to Africa, and hunt for poachers. GOLDEN.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: Basically because Colin Kaepernick is going to be the singly best player on the field on Sunday.

*collapses to the ground weeping*

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens: Miami's strength is running the ball, and, between all of their quality offensive linemen being injured and Baltimore's run defense being freaky good, this pretty much means Miami has to rely on Tannehill doing everything right to win this. He's better right now, but he's been better lots of times, and it doesn't last.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: Revis has the singly worst contract in the league right now, right? I mean, I could see arguments for Flacco, but, even though he's hugely overpaid, he's at least a QB, and you can rationalize overpaying for a QB. Revis Island is suffering enough erosion that it's now suspiciously shaped like a giant anchor with dollar signs on it.

Enix wrote:

IMAGE(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Gue69lM1_XF6I9kYfeuaLR38Yh8=/0x0:505x300/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:505x300):no_upscale()/cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7541901/mack.0.gif)

Catch of the Year, honestly.

It was a smart play, too, by Mack. Carolina loves that little spin screen. (The gif doesn't show the whole play; at the start, Newton turns left like he's going to throw that way, then does a 360 and flings it right.)

Done right, Tolbert gets an easy first down. Done wrong, and it's the second coming of Pep.

I don't know what's up with Seattle.

Oh, it's bad, though not quite as bad as last week. We have:

1. A rookie UDFA LT who is off-the-charts athletic but never actually played tackle in college
2. A rookie RG that will make an incredible block, absolutely smash someone, one play and then whiff the next causing a sack
3. The RT position isn't settled. We have two below-replacement level players, one a reject from Arizona and another TE conversion who apparently has been hiding an injury all year, battling it out for who gets the right to stink up the field.

On the plus side, our LG has been pretty good and we converted our RT/RG into a center (Justin Britt) and he's actually really good at it. The team suffered horribly last week as his rookie backup wasn't able to make protection adjustments and just killed Seattle with unbalanced fronts. He is coming off an ankle injury this week so he may not be pulling or getting to the second level with his usual quickness.

I'm expecting carnage on both sides, with lots of quick passes and futile runs into the line. I think home field advantage wins it for the Hawks, but SEA-CAR games are always close!

Minase wrote:

SEA-CAR games are always close!

You're right about that.

Because of the two terrible O-lines, I'm expecting a final of 11-8 or 9-5 or some other score combination that the NFL hasn't ever seen.

I'm sure the over/under on this game is something like 22. Take the under!

Milkman... I picked the same as you, for almost the same reasons (except you clearly know a lot more about stuff), except on the Ravens. But you make a compelling argument. Decisions, decisions...

Enix wrote:
Minase wrote:

SEA-CAR games are always close!

You're right about that.

Because of the two terrible O-lines, I'm expecting a final of 11-8 or 9-5 or some other score combination that the NFL hasn't ever seen.

I'm sure the over/under on this game is something like 22. Take the under!

I'm expecting something like 49-48, as each team scores six defensive TDs on strip sacks and bad swing passes alone.

MoonDragon wrote:

Milkman... I picked the same as you, for almost the same reasons (except you clearly know a lot more about stuff), except on the Ravens. But you make a compelling argument. Decisions, decisions...

Football Outsiders currently have that Baltimore run defense as historically great, and actually better then the previous all-time great 2000 Ravens. Will certainly likely change as the season goes by, but they've been freakishly good at run defense.

Also, it's not that I know a lot about football. It's just that I know more than Legion.

I'll just go ahead and leave this here.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cymq5YOWgAE41fR.jpg)

Gronk is out 8 weeks (expected) for herniated disc surgery. I'm guessing it was that Earl Thomas hit a few weeks ago. That impact just hurt to watch.

Also, Brady, Edelman, and Bennet missed practice yesterday due to their injuries.

San Fran @ Chicago... What a sh*t show. This game may determine the 2nd pick in the draft. I expect my Bears to win out and secure a nice pick late in the top 10.

I feel like they have lots of seasons of 4-9 becoming 7-9 and going from pick 5ish to pick 15ish.

4-1? How did that happen? Is that my first winning week all season? Jeez.

Wow. Seen that hands to the face of QB called many times. Must be nice to be Dallas this year

Stele wrote:

Wow. Seen that hands to the face of QB called many times. Must be nice to be Dallas this year

It is. Finally, it is.

Apparently Joe McKnight was shot and killed yesterday in a road rage incident. In the current political climate it doesn't sound too good that the white dude who shot him was released this morning without being charged, yet. Obviously more facts need to come out but damn.

kaostheory wrote:

San Fran @ Chicago... What a sh*t show. This game may determine the 2nd pick in the draft. I expect my Bears to win out and secure a nice pick late in the top 10.

Yup. They'll find a way to f*ck up tanking.

Annual joke:

Browns +4.5 vs. BYE

So, to put my picks for the week on record: Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Francisco, Miami, Indianapolis

Also, a few bits I had for the top post that I didn't get to write:

* In the past 4 games, Colin Kaepernick has thrown for 1110 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs, for a 96.0 passer rating, and added 223 yards and 1 TD on the ground. All 4 games were losses, but these are the kinds of performances that will have teams looking at Kaepernick as having value again come free agency, whereas he had bottomed out at the start of the season.

* Technically, Kaepernick is under contract for another year, but the renegotiation gave him the ability to void the final year. And if there's any doubt that he plans to exercise that, his house going on the market should eliminate it.

* I really like this victory formation by the Raiders:
IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/PfJ7OAh.png)
A fumbled snap under center is in awfully close proximity to the defensive line. A botched shotgun snap is easier for the offense to recover. Even if the center ends up rolling the ball, the Raiders have two upbacks here ready to collapse on it. Three sets of eyes watching the snap, ready to pounce on any snap gone wrong. I think this is much better than taking the snap under center, where the ball is in arm's reach of the defensive tackles if it hits the ground.

* In case you thought Belichick was hasty in getting rid of Jamie Collins…

* God help me… I want the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South. Not that I don’t still wish for their seasons to be dumpster fires every year into eternity, but the team that threw $72 million at Elvis Grbac Brock Osweiler does not deserve to win anything. The team that drafted Mariota does.

*Legion* wrote:

* I really like this victory formation by the Raiders:

Also, Carr was less likely to fumble a shotgun snap than a snap under center because of his busted finger. Damn the Raiders for thinking of that!

I'm running out of sad Browns fans to post here.

Wow, that's horrible.

*Legion* wrote:

I want the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/EXtxN9FcIzlrW/giphy.gif)

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

I want the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/EXtxN9FcIzlrW/giphy.gif)

Oh and disillusioned Vikings fans, Titans have now beaten the Packers and the Bears.

Joinnnnn ussssss...

Jeff Fisher gets two-year contract extension.

Commitment to 7 And 9.

SF-Chicago had 0 pass completions in the 1st quarter.

garion333 wrote:

SF-Chicago had 0 pass completions in the 1st quarter.

That's because it's two teams battling it out in the snow with good old fashioned ground game football. It has nothing to do with the two teams vying for the second pick in the draft...

I think Bortles had another interception that involved his receiver's feet.

Between GB-Houston and Chicago-SF I hate the new Vikings stadium more with every snap. Way to get rid of your home field advantage, guys, it's not like warmer-weather teams coming into snow would be at a disadvantage or anything.

Good news for Houston fans--snow doesn't seem to really impact Osweiler all that much. He's just about as crappy as normal, regardless of weather.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Between GB-Houston and Chicago-SF I hate the new Vikings stadium more with every snap. Way to get rid of your home field advantage, guys, it's not like warmer-weather teams coming into snow would be at a disadvantage or anything.

Good news for Houston fans--snow doesn't seem to really impact Osweiler all that much. He's just about as crappy as normal, regardless of weather.

Don't look now, but he's thrown for a TD in this snowstorm! If anyone can tune in, football in a blizzard is a lot of fun to watch!

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