Discussion loosely centered on Trump's effects outside the US, starting with Danimal's interesting set of prognostications.
1. The Baltic States are screwed.. Russia will within the next few months begin to pressure Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. NATO status will be irrelevant, because the trouble will be in the form of Russia finding locals who will begin agitating, and Russia will supply military assistance similar to what happened in Ukraine. When the governments ask for assistance, Trump will say this is an internal matter, and Article 5 does not apply. The rest of NATO simply does not have the capacity to project power into that part of the world, and the Baltic States are swallowed in the Russian orbit and functionality cease being independent, sovereign states. The U.S.' position as a reliable, trustworthy ally is fatally ruined and never recovers. NATO remains an alliance in name only, and essentially disintegrates into a Western Europe-only alliance. As a form of self-preservation, more states try to gain their own nuclear weapons, significantly reducing the future safety of the planet.
Wow, you've done something most of us have not... Tried to put Trump into a real global perspective.
I think the timeframe in the Baltic States will be a few *years* rather than months, but I also think it's likely to happen as you say.
2.We are at war with Iran by the summer of 2017.. The treaty to suspend Iran's nuclear program is seen as a major accomplishment of Obama, and will not be allowed to stand. The new administration will disavow the agreement and begin demanding concessions and inspections and a whole series of patently insulting requests, and this will lead Iran to restart their program. There will be an air campaign, followed by boots on the ground, followed by an extended U.S. presence as we try to just take their oil for ourselves to try to shore up our own economy. This destroys the last stable state in the area, essentially meaning the kind of chaos we see in Syria extends to the entire region.
This is interesting. I had not considered it. But... What's the reason to break the treaty? It's actually working, and I think the intel agencies and military will push back on a repudiation. Unless there's a catalysing event, I don't see Trump or Congress with the political will to go toe to toe with Iran in an actual fight. Much more useful as a propaganda punching bag.
3. The U.S. pivots away from Pakistan and towards India.. India is experiencing its own rise of nationalistic, right-wing authoritarianism, and our odds of remaining friendly with Islamic states under a Trump administration seen aggressively bad. With us no longer in Pakistan and the balance of support shifting, a newly-expansionist India aggressively moves to military conflict to try to resolve the Kashmir issue once and for all. War breaks out between two nuclear-armed states, and I think there's a terrifyingly good chance of the nuclear genie being let out of the bottle.
This implies a serious disengagement from Afghanistan... Are we ready for that?