European Politics discussion
In five years, the tables will turn again, without most of the problems being solved.
BREXIT after austerity was the kicking after the knockdown blow. Now it's just a matter of finding the right prosthetics to help the patient limp along for the rest of their life.
And here we go! "Exit Poll Suggests Labour set for huge landslide win."
Just take a look and take in those numbers.
The Conservatives, so often an election winning machine, a powerhouse of success, are pulverised, obliterated.
Just five years ago Labour were crushed, humiliated – and reduced to their smallest number of seats since 1935.
People fell over themselves to say Labour was doomed for a decade.
Boris Johnson just two years ago was musing publicly about winning three terms, serving into the 2030s.
And yet here, if this exit poll is close to where we end up by the morning, points to an astonishing come back for Labour.
They faced a climb Himalayan in its proportions to win by a smidgen.
These figures point to them winning by a mile.
What does all this tell us?
We live in a world of unprecedented voter volatility – more people in more places are more willing to change their minds more often and more quickly about politics than ever before.
By tomorrow lunchtime it looks like we will have our fourth prime minister in under two years.
And so the whirlwind of British politics continues.
It is 27 years since Labour won a general election from opposition.
It is 19 years since they won a general election full stop.
The history books of the last century tell us one thing - they are spectacularly good at losing elections – losing far, far more than they win.
But tonight they stand on the threshold of a spectacular victory.
Spectacular given where they came from – the doldrums.
But spectacular too by any metric, at any time, in any context – it is extraordinary.
Remember, though, that a new government will confront all of the old problems that caused its predecessor so much trouble – the cost of living, the government’s finances, the tax burden, a dangerous world – no majority, however big, can erase those colossal challenges.
This chart, from a post on the Comment is Freed Substack by Dylan Difford, shows how a majority of 170 would compare with other majorities since 1885.
The hell happened in 1931?
EDIT:
The 1931 United Kingdom general election was held on Tuesday, 27 October 1931. It saw a landslide election victory for the National Government, a three-party coalition which had been formed two months previously after the collapse of the second Labour government.[1] Journalist Ivor Bulmer-Thomas described the result as "the most astonishing in the history of the British party system".[2]
Unable to secure support from his cabinet for his preferred policy responses to the economic and social crises brought about by the Great Depression, Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald split from the Labour Party and formed a new national government in coalition with the Conservative Party and a number of Liberals. MacDonald subsequently campaigned for a "Doctor's Mandate" to do whatever was necessary to fix the economy, running as the leader of a new party called National Labour within the coalition. Disagreement over whether to join the new government also resulted in the Liberal Party splitting into three separate factions, including one led by former Prime Minister David Lloyd George.
Collectively, the parties forming the National Government won 67% of the popular vote and 554 (90.1%) of 615 seats in the House of Commons. Although the bulk of the National Government's support came from the Conservative Party, which won 470 seats, MacDonald remained Prime Minister. The Labour Party suffered its greatest ever defeat—losing four-fifths of its seats, including the seat of leader Arthur Henderson—and became the official opposition with just 52 MPs. The collapse of the Liberals into competing factions also ended their time as a significant force in British politics; the breakaway National Liberals were eventually absorbed into the Conservatives in 1947, while the main Liberal Party would spend the next half-century in the political wilderness until its revival in the 1970s.
Oh.
Well, at least in my limited lifetime (2024 and '97), when the Tories lose, they f*ckin' lose don't they?
Also, obligatory UK election post:
Greece becomes first EU country to introduce a six-day working week
Greece has controversially introduced a six-day working week for some businesses in a bid to boost productivity and employment in the southern European country.
The regulation, which came into force on July 1, bucks a global trend of companies exploring a shorter working week.
Under the new legislation, which was passed as part of a broader set of labor laws last year, employees of private businesses that provide round-the-clock services will reportedly have the option of working an additional two hours per day or an extra eight-hour shift.
The change means a traditional 40-hour workweek could be extended to 48 hours per week for some businesses. Food service and tourism workers are not included in the six-day working week initiative.
The pro-business government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has said the measure is both "worker-friendly" and "deeply growth-orientated." It is designed to support employees not being sufficiently compensated for overtime work and to help crack down on the problem of undeclared labor.
Labor unions and political observers have sharply criticized the move.
A spokesperson for Greece's embassy in London was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
Something doesn't add up with this story. I'm very skeptical that we are not getting all the facts. Working Time Directive exists and I fail to under stand how the Greek government gets around it.
Reform's vote is going to be the story tonight. Already early analysis mentioning voting reform.
I don’t think the meltdown of the tories has anything to do with voter volatility. It has to do with the fact that they can’t govern.
Reform's vote is going to be the story tonight. Already early analysis mentioning voting reform.
There are much better results than reform from tonight - the Greens getting 4 seats is really unprecedented, and despite the projections, Reform only got 4 as well. Yes they’ve clearly made a very sizable dent in the collective Tory vote, but I suspect it won’t be long before at least one reform MP gets caught in a racist rant or something similar and their broad support base collapses.
The absolute hammering the SNP have got is probably the bigger story to be honest. It leaves any thought of Scottish independence irrelevant for the short to medium term future.
As I did say the Tories have done somewhat better than a lot of the echo chambers on the internet were somewhat deliriously predicting, while at the same time still getting a right kicking. And the Lib Dem’s whole made the largest gains in terms of MPs in over a century. Not bad.
Most telling of all to my mind is that despite their massive majority, Labour’s actual share of the vote isn’t that much more than it was in the last election. FPTP really needs to go.
I’m sure the Tory controlled media is already shifting to how Starmer is to blame for not transforming the ashes into diamonds fast enough.
I’m sure the Tory controlled media is already shifting to how Starmer is to blame for not transforming the ashes into diamonds fast enough.
Actually, I think they are going to be a lot more interested in where the Tory party goes, who their leader will be and how Nigel Farage will fit into it all. Given that most of the more ‘moderate’ Tories all lost their seats, the crop of people likely to win that are all definitely to the right of the party. The Tory party membership is going to have a lot to think about.
I wonder how much pressure there is going to be for some sort of formal deal with Reform. The path of least resistance might be to merge the parties, keep Farage and quietly get rid of all the mentalists that make up the rest of reform.
Paleocon wrote:I’m sure the Tory controlled media is already shifting to how Starmer is to blame for not transforming the ashes into diamonds fast enough.
Actually, I think they are going to be a lot more interested in where the Tory party goes, who their leader will be and how Nigel Farage will fit into it all. Given that most of the more ‘moderate’ Tories all lost their seats, the crop of people likely to win that are all definitely to the right of the party. The Tory party membership is going to have a lot to think about.
I wonder how much pressure there is going to be for some sort of formal deal with Reform. The path of least resistance might be to merge the parties, keep Farage and quietly get rid of all the mentalists that make up the rest of reform.
I don't see them divorcing themselves from the positions that Austerity and Brexit were the best ideas ever though. And it will be a little while before the country gets past how much those cornholed them. They were, after all, the two defining policies of both the Conservatives AND Nigel Farage.
Perhaps with enough time and the dedicated and consistent work of Tory aligned propagandists, the electorate will forget how badly they were swindled, but at this point, I don't know that the Tories have anything to sell.
Nativism still sells, just have to find a way to blame the Brexit and austerity problems on Someone Else (tm).
Can't wait for Americans on social media to start wondering who "Sir Kid Starver" is.
British politics summed up in one photo?
I wonder how much pressure there is going to be for some sort of formal deal with Reform. The path of least resistance might be to merge the parties, keep Farage and quietly get rid of all the mentalists that make up the rest of reform.
Speaking of Reform, I've seen a lot of talk online about their performance, that sure, they got 13 seats but... they're here now and garnered a lot of votes.
If this were Canada, I would expect a vigorous rebranding or a mass migration to Reform with a subsequent benchjacking. Conservatives want power and will take the path of least resistance.
Sorbicol wrote:I wonder how much pressure there is going to be for some sort of formal deal with Reform. The path of least resistance might be to merge the parties, keep Farage and quietly get rid of all the mentalists that make up the rest of reform.
Speaking of Reform, I've seen a lot of talk online about their performance, that sure, they got 13 seats but... they're here now and garnered a lot of votes.
They got 5 seats in the end, the exit poll was wrong about that one. They also got about the same amount of votes as UKIP did in they prime. First Past the Post is a wack system, Starmer got less votes than Corbyn did in 2019!
Speaking of Reform, I've seen a lot of talk online about their performance, that sure, they got 13 seats but... they're here now and garnered a lot of votes.
they didn't get 13 seats, they got 5 - which is a bit more than I was expecting, but not as bad as I though when I also heard they were projected to get 13.
It really does need to be noted though that they got about half as many again votes as the Liberal Democrats got. They've got 72 MPs. FPTP really does make a mockery of elections to be honest. Labour have stonking great 172 seat majority, yet only about 34% of the electorate voted for them.
Starmer got less votes than Corbyn did in 2019!
That really puts it into perspective.
FPTP is a crazy system. I guess it might have had some value for keeping extremists out, but it is clearly not doing that anymore either (US, France).
onewild wrote:Starmer got less votes than Corbyn did in 2019!
That really puts it into perspective.
Relatedly:
onewild wrote:Starmer got less votes than Corbyn did in 2019!
That really puts it into perspective.
FPTP is a crazy system. I guess it might have had some value for keeping extremists out, but it is clearly not doing that anymore either (US, France).
There isn’t any real evidence for that. It keeps small parties with distributed support out. Once an extremist party gets in, it’s pretty much game over. Orban took all but 2 FPTP seats not in Budapest (it’s a mixed system so the opposition picked up seats in the PR part but not enough to match the vote share).
There is a definite problem with FPTP in that it allows unrepresentative governments which can build up problems in the long term if parties of the centre can’t deliver (as France is finding out).
Uh oh, some positive news in the usual stream of terrible news.
French election might have gone significantly better than expected?
(haven't found any results to link yet sorry, so just rambling)
Edit: Eh, might be too early, sounds like the exit polls are disagreeing.
Exit polls have just been made available and they all give different numbers - to the point we cannot confidently say which party has come out on top.France Télévisions gives the National Rally between 120 and 160 seats - if that's correct then this is a surprise defeat for the RN, which would have come third.
Two other polls, including France's biggest private channel TF1 and from RTL/M6 suggest RN has come second. One other projection gives RN the biggest number of seats, but that may be an outlier.
From what I've heard, the good news is that the right didn't get a majority.
The bad news is, no-one did, and the country is now basically ungovernable.
the country is now basically ungovernable.
Might be time for them to learn to govern without a majority. Could even be healthy.
I don’t think the meltdown of the tories has anything to do with voter volatility. It has to do with the fact that they can’t govern.
The UK system is the worst of both worlds now. 5 to 6 parties now working in a plurality system. Labour barely increased their vote share. If you combined Reform and the Tories you'd end up with a very different result. And a lot of those Reform voters are ex-Labour voters as well.
Nice explainer from RTE here. Political anoraks here in Ireland have a grim fascination at how unfair the UK system is.
Throw in the Lib Dems and Greens increasing their vote share and you very much have a big discussion about voter volatility in both Labour and the Tories. The cynical part of me suspects Labour won't be in a hurry to change anything but Farage is already making it a cause celeb so expect the papers to follow suit.
Prederick wrote:the country is now basically ungovernable.
Might be time for them to learn to govern without a majority. Could even be healthy.
As citizens of coalition governments, Shadout, we assure people it's not all bad.
Fair dues France.
Throw in the Lib Dems and Greens increasing their vote share and you very much have a big discussion about voter volatility in both Labour and the Tories. The cynical part of me suspects Labour won't be in a hurry to change anything but Farage is already making it a cause celeb so expect the papers to follow suit.
Sorry but that's just not true. Farage is making a lot of noise for sure, but - let's say - he gets invited to lead the Conservatives, he'll be straight back to thinking that the current FPTP system is the bees knees and the greatest example of democracy known to man. The papers will always hold that opinion considering the calibre of people that own them - they do not share power. Not ever. And the lower the number of votes they need to get that power, the better.
The Labour Party Conference has voted to back PR several times now - however Starmer is having none of it as things stand. The party itself is very open to the idea, it's the leadership that find it harder to deal with.
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