[Discussion] European Political Landscape

There are three elections occurring over the coming year that are of huge importance. They are:

Italian Constitutional Referendum - 04/12/16
French Presidential Election - 1st Round 23/04/17, 2nd Round 07/05/17
German Federal Election - 22/10/17

This thread is to discuss the political realities, results and fallout around these elections. The scope is broad but try to keep the post relevant to the elections referenced above.

Edit - Updated thread title

Better get that sh*t ready for Nov. 4th...

Prederick wrote:

Is this a tipping point for Belarus? Dunno, but this is definitely the biggest challenge Lukashenko has seen to his rule in ages. If there's any reason to be pessimistic, however, it's that he's in good with Putin, I believe, and if Putin wants him in power, he's staying in power.

Putin says he could send police to Belarus if necessary

Mr Putin said Russia had an obligation to help Belarus with its security under the two countries' close alliance, and he stressed the deep cultural, ethnic and linguistic ties between the two nations.

He said the new reserve force would not go into Belarus unless "extremist elements using political slogans as cover cross a certain boundary and start armed robbery, setting fire to cars, houses, banks, try to seize government buildings and so forth".

He added that "on the whole, though, the situation now is levelling out".

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Mr Putin was using the idea of restoring control in Belarus to hide a hostile breach of international law.

He said the plan must immediately be withdrawn.

Russia and Belarus are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, made up of a number of post-Soviet countries.

The two nations formed a union in 1996 that promoted greater integration as well as guaranteeing citizens the right to work and reside freely in both countries.

So Lukashenko stays in power, then.

LeapingGnome wrote:
Axon wrote:

Busy week but wanted to close the loop on this summit as it's significant.

The EU’s leaders have agreed on a €750bn covid-19 recovery package

It seems short-sighted to take on bond payments for the next 38 years. What are they going to do when the next crisis comes in the next decade?

It is also surprising the EC is taking on the huge debt. What happens when a country leaves the EU, like Britain did. Does their 'portion' of the debt just transfer to the other states that are still members?

Ok, very long story short here is the ECB is prepared to backstop the Euro and the fiscal framework is in place to protect it in the future. So it doesn't matter anymore. Perhaps it's not ideal but as long as the Dollar and Yen are in a worse state it doesn't really matter. Better yet, European bonds, especially German, are now some of the safest places to put your money. Much like T-bills and the Dollar, it's not in investors interest to attack the Euro now.

I could expand greatly on this but that's the rough outline of the thinking in the Eurozone and other EU members (who are technically in the Eurozone but don't use the Euro) born out of the Cyprus bail-in to a large part. The fall out of that bail-in was seen elsewhere but that's a whole other can of worms.

The really major point is the Commission now can raise it's own revenue and give monies directly to member states as grants. These will be through the current prism of structural and regional development funds. To me this is the game changer. The initial thinking is that these will go into areas like transport, power and comms but I'm sure that will change.

As for paying for it if you are exiting, Britain has a bill that it has to pay to cover it's commitments to the EU. Same will apply to any other state seeking to leave. It'll just be bigger in future. Sure, they could leave without paying but Britain found out that's not really an option.

Prederick wrote:

So Lukashenko stays in power, then.

For now.

This isn't Brexit, and it's coronavirus, but not, but anyway:

Boris appears to be floundering.

Others writing in the same magazine put it more idiosyncratically. “What on earth happened to the freedom-loving, twinkly-eyed, Rabelaisian character I voted for? Oliver Hardy has left the stage, replaced by Oliver Cromwell,” said columnist Toby Young, complaining of a “lack of engagement with the detail”.