[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

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Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

19.1 Biden will either decide not to run (after dithering for a very long time) or run and then hit massive headwinds.

19.2 Trump will launch investigations into his opponents (including Hillary Clinton, a private citizen minding her own business).

19.2a There will be at least one arrest due to these investigations.

19.3 Congress' subpoenas will be ignored. It will take them weeks to realize this and then they'll dither for ages trying to figure out how to respond. When they finally decide to enforce it, it ends up crawling through the courts.

19.3a At least one Democratic committee chair will put a lot of weight on getting recommendations from the Department of Justice and then be astonished when the Attorney General sabotages it.

19.4 At least one legal case in this investigation and impeachment mess will wind up in the Supreme Court. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh will mysteriously find in favor of the administration.

19.5 Russian hacking will alter 2020 election results in multiple states. This may not be known for some time, as at least one Republican Secretary of State will destroy the voting records.

19.6 The Supreme Court will allow the Citizenship question to be added to the census. The census process will be bungled anyway, and the next two decades will see bitter fighting over the poor quality of the data.

19.7 Before the end of 2020, Trump will pardon at least one convicted witness. Nothing will happen to him as a result.

19.8 Before the end of 2020, US troops will shoot lawful refugees on the southern border.

Gremlin wrote:

19.1 Biden will either decide not to run (after dithering for a very long time) or run and then hit massive headwinds.

19.2 Trump will launch investigations into his opponents (including Hillary Clinton, a private citizen minding her own business).

19.2a There will be at least one arrest due to these investigations.

19.3 Congress' subpoenas will be ignored. It will take them weeks to realize this and then they'll dither for ages trying to figure out how to respond. When they finally decide to enforce it, it ends up crawling through the courts.

19.3a At least one Democratic committee chair will put a lot of weight on getting recommendations from the Department of Justice and then be astonished when the Attorney General sabotages it.

19.4 At least one legal case in this investigation and impeachment mess will wind up in the Supreme Court. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh will mysteriously find in favor of the administration.

19.5 Russian hacking will alter 2020 election results in multiple states. This may not be known for some time, as at least one Republican Secretary of State will destroy the voting records.

19.6 The Supreme Court will allow the Citizenship question to be added to the census. The census process will be bungled anyway, and the next two decades will see bitter fighting over the poor quality of the data.

19.7 Before the end of 2020, Trump will pardon at least one convicted witness. Nothing will happen to him as a result.

19.8 Before the end of 2020, US troops will shoot lawful refugees on the southern border.

Well it's 4:45 am and I'm not going back to sleep now.

Or ever.

I mean, Biden immediately decided to announce he was running within hours of me posting this, so we'll see how the rest of them turn out.

By the end of 2021:

20.1: The Supreme Court will reverse precedent and uphold the abortion bans
20.1.a: States that try to make it legal will be blocked, "state's rights" will suddenly not be a thing
20.2: The United States will go to war with Iran
20.2.a: The pretext for the war will involve blatant lies
20.2.b: Congress won't authorize the war, it will happen anyway, Congress will be unable or unwilling to object
20.3: Tariffs with China will cause massive price spikes for ordinary citizens
20.4: Muller will eventually be compelled to testify
20.4.a: Everyone will be upset with his statements as he refuses to exonerate the president but also avoids saying anything that could lead to impeachment for fear of appearing too political

By 2100:
Murdering liberals and PoCs will go from just a fine to a reward.

Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States, and her debate moment with Biden will be looked back on as a defining moment of her campaign. It will also live on in Youtube video's entitled "Greatest Presidential debate moments of all time"; "Kamala Harris DESTROYS Biden" and "Why Kamala Harris is a racist" in uhm... other circles of the Internet.

By the end of 2020:

21.1 As a "hygiene" measure, People in the concentration camps will be treated with something similar to Zyklon B. Again.
21.2 Deaths caused by white supremacists will continue, mostly as "lone wolf" types
21.2a The media will continue to be mysteriously unable to understand their manifestos.
21.3 The government will establish a registry of people with mental illness (ostensibly so they can be monitored for violent threats)
21.4 Some people with mental illnesses will be required to carry an identification card, will be involuntarily imprisoned, subjected to forced sterilization, or other similar measures.
21.5 Political enemies of the right will be labeled as having mental illnesses. Those people protesting ICE were clearly unbalanced. Did you hear how Nancy Pelosi slurred her words in that doctored video?
21.6 Some of the concentration camps will become labor camps
21.7 The Wall will be built by imprisoned immigrants
21.8 A narrower definition of citizenship will be formulated, excluding many people who thought they were citizens

I was going to say something about my pessimism about the future, but Gremlin's got it covered.

EDIT: Wait until climate change stokes a for real migrant crisis!

Robert Reich wrote a pretty cut-and-paste "Trump is nuts" article in The Guardian today that's not particularly interesting, beyond....

What to do? We can vote him out of office in 14 months’ time. But he could end the world in seven and a half seconds.

There’s also the question of whether he’ll willingly leave.

Can you imagine the lengths he will go to win? Will he get Russia to do more dirty work? Instruct the justice department to arrest his opponent? Issue an executive order banning anyone not born in the US from voting? Start another war?

By the time the courts order him to cease whatever unconstitutional effort he’s making to remain in office, the election may be over. Or he’ll just ignore the courts.

It’s almost too late for an impeachment. Besides, no president has ever been sent packing. Nixon resigned because he saw it coming. Trump would sooner start a civil war.

That last part is the part that rings the most true. I cannot imagine this man leaving office willingly, especially since, even in a "best-case" scenario, I can't imagine him losing worse than 55-45 or so. Moreover, I cannot imagine him losing the support of his party, both elected officials and the base if he just announced on November 4, "Not leaving office! Rigged election!"

Prederick wrote:

Moreover, I cannot imagine him losing the support of his party, both elected officials and the base if he just announced on November 4, "Not leaving office! Rigged election!"

Especially with the Senate going along with it.

22.1 The promise that alarmed the whistleblower does not directly involve Russia
22.2 The promise that alarmed the whistleblower involves Saudi Arabia

Gremlin wrote:

22.1 The promise that alarmed the whistleblower does not directly involve Russia
22.2 The promise that alarmed the whistleblower involves Saudi Arabia

Well, 50/50 isn't bad. I guess.

Let's try again, now that we know what is going on:

23.1 After Trump claims victory in the 2020 presidential election, Trump's opponent will be imprisoned.

Maybe this was already predicted, but I think odds are a Democrat wins the Presidency and Republicans keep the Senate in 2020. Then McConnell brazenly tries to run out the clock and not allow the confirmation of any Supreme Court Justices for the entire Presidential term, even if, say, RBG retires in 2021.

gewy wrote:

Maybe this was already predicted, but I think odds are a Democrat wins the Presidency and Republicans keep the Senate in 2020. Then McConnell brazenly tries to run out the clock and not allow the confirmation of any Supreme Court Justices for the entire Presidential term, even if, say, RBG retires in 2021.

You can mark this one as certain under this scenario.

Prederick wrote:

Robert Reich wrote a pretty cut-and-paste "Trump is nuts" article in The Guardian today that's not particularly interesting, beyond....

What to do? We can vote him out of office in 14 months’ time. But he could end the world in seven and a half seconds.

There’s also the question of whether he’ll willingly leave.

Can you imagine the lengths he will go to win? Will he get Russia to do more dirty work? Instruct the justice department to arrest his opponent? Issue an executive order banning anyone not born in the US from voting? Start another war?

By the time the courts order him to cease whatever unconstitutional effort he’s making to remain in office, the election may be over. Or he’ll just ignore the courts.

It’s almost too late for an impeachment. Besides, no president has ever been sent packing. Nixon resigned because he saw it coming. Trump would sooner start a civil war.

That last part is the part that rings the most true. I cannot imagine this man leaving office willingly, especially since, even in a "best-case" scenario, I can't imagine him losing worse than 55-45 or so. Moreover, I cannot imagine him losing the support of his party, both elected officials and the base if he just announced on November 4, "Not leaving office! Rigged election!"

Well hopefully the Secret Service will arrest him when he refuses to leave. At least I have hope that enough members of the Armed Services and federal agencies won’t allow him to remain after a fair election.

I’m not sure though he’s beatable given gerrymandering and the fact Russia will have free reign to throw the election.

Edit. Probably too much.

24.1. If Donald Trump is alive in February of 2025 he’ll still be president (or whatever the title is called at that point).

Gremlin wrote:

11.1 By the end of his presidency--between the wars, natural disasters with failed responses, etc.--Trump will be directly or indirectly responsible for a higher death toll than George W. Bush was.

By the way, I'm also counting the impending Kurdish genocide towards this.

My prediction is that when Trump goes down, the dolchstosslegende bs that comes out of the Trumpers will make us nostalgic for the relative rational civility of Confederate flag Nazis.

Slightly more tongue in check, since it's nearing the end of the decade let's take a look at how civilization will end in the near future:

24.1 The combination of the 2019-2020 influenza vaccine targeting the wrong strain of H3N2 and the vaccinated border detention camps leads to several thousand deaths, news dubs it the "Mexican flu" which Trump rallies immediately pick up and use as a racist rallying point.

24.2 A cascading failure of Elon Musk's Starlink satellites triggers Kessler Syndrome, trapping humanity on planet Earth for the next three thousand years.

24.3 Unexpectedly rapid ocean level rise coupled with changing temperature and oxygenation in seawater leads to a dieoff of krill and the rise of sea salps that fill their niche. The sea no longer provides food.

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