[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

WizKid wrote:

Prediction 5: The Republican Party will eliminate the Filibuster within the next 2 years.

Prediction 6: The Republican Party will retain control of the Senate in 2018.
Prediction 6.1: They will pick up seats in the Senate.
Prediction 6.2: They will lose control of the house.

I'm gonna go ahead and call these ones correct.

Prederick wrote:

Two predictions:

1.) Whatever Mueller finds or recommends, Trump will finish his term and run for re-election in 2020.

2.) Whether or not Trump wins in 2020, the party continues to radicalize (but especially if he loses). I have seen articles arguing that "Trumpism" cannot survive without Trump, and I feel this is wrong. Trumpism is now, in the main, conservatism. He is the Republican party.

#2 is so true. Like, thinking about this tr other day when being bombarded by political ads and realizing that there is little left of the coded language that the GOP used to trot out there - like “We want immigration control” is now, as Trump puts it, “Mexicans are rapists and gang members.” Remember when it was all about the “War on Terror?” Well, it’s now Muslim bans and registries.

He’s absolutely shattered those once ironclad codes phrases for racism and brought them out to the light and hasn’t been punished for it and has instead been rewarded for it by his two bases - the David Duke base and the ‘Conservative Republican’ base that, while they loathe to be called racist, they’re certainly ok acting and speaking like one in public now.

I’ll add an addendum to your prediction though -

In 2020, the Democrats will retake the senate and hold the house, and in doing so, will spark weekly terror attacks from people that have been allowed access to their own new party. This will cause a sundering of the Republican Party because, at some point, there can no longer be an association with that section of the party - you know, the nationalist side, but it’s going to have to get far worse before it gets to that point.

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

Jayhawker wrote:

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

You might as well go all the way and predict civil war then.

Having a hard time this morning... yeesh

[quote="BlackSheep"]

Shadout wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

You might as well go all the way and predict civil war then.

I can’t imagine Pelosi winning. Running, sure - but the GOP will trot out their fear mongering Clinton playbook again if she’s the winner of that primary.

I know this is the prediction thread, but I can’t imagine who the Dems are going to end up with running for President at the moment with so much in flux across the country and across their own party.

I predict I’ll triple post like an idiot.

BlackSheep wrote:
Shadout wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

You might as well go all the way and predict civil war then.

I can’t imagine Pelosi winning. Running, sure - but the GOP will trot out their fear mongering Clinton playbook again if she’s the winner of that primary.

I know this is the prediction thread, but I can’t imagine who the Dems are going to end up with running for President at the moment with so much in flux across the country and across their own party.

Speaker of the House is third in the line of succession. If Trump is removed and Pence runs away, that gets you Pelosi. It's highly unlikely while they control the senate though.

Yes, I’m talking line of succession.

It really depends on what Mueller releases. Yes, the bar in the Senate got a bit higher last night, but if what comes out is damaging enough, it think they can be forced to go along.

What we know now is that the House will get and be able to act on Mueller’s findings. There was always more danger that the House would bury any report. That has been fixed.

It’s go time.

I'm so excited to see what the house intelligence committee has been burying but there is no chance in hell it gets passed VP for line of succession.

oilypenguin wrote:

I'm so excited to see what the house intelligence committee has been burying but there is no chance in hell it gets passed VP for line of succession.

Yeah, Democrats would praise President Pence as "a return to normalcy", and complain, but still vote with him in the end to electrocute gay children, as long as corporate donors' profits remained high.

Bonus_Eruptus wrote:
oilypenguin wrote:

I'm so excited to see what the house intelligence committee has been burying but there is no chance in hell it gets passed VP for line of succession.

Yeah, Democrats would praise President Pence as "a return to normalcy", and complain, but still vote with him in the end to electrocute gay children, as long as corporate donors' profits remained high.

Kind of what I mean.

So assuming Mueller or the House digs up enough and the mood is right for impeachment (keep in mind that blew up in the faces of the Rs over the Clinton impeachment), even if Trump is guilty enough to get removal approval from the heavily-R senate, Pence would need to either die or resign in the extremely short window before Pence got another VP, I think the senate approves that appointment? Even with a ton of evidence coming from the house/Mueller about Pence, they'll want to get a replacement VP in there knowing Pelosi was next in line.

Honestly, Ds taking the house means some accountability and I think 2020 is going to be another blue wave but it's Trump or Pence until 2020 barring illness or violence.

WizKid wrote:
WizKid wrote:

Prediction 5: The Republican Party will eliminate the Filibuster within the next 2 years.

Prediction 6: The Republican Party will retain control of the Senate in 2018.
Prediction 6.1: They will pick up seats in the Senate.
Prediction 6.2: They will lose control of the house.

I'm gonna go ahead and call these ones correct.

WizKid showing folks he *earned* his name!

oilypenguin wrote:

So assuming Mueller or the House digs up enough and the mood is right for impeachment (keep in mind that blew up in the faces of the Rs over the Clinton impeachment), even if Trump is guilty enough to get removal approval from the heavily-R senate, Pence would need to either die or resign in the extremely short window before Pence got another VP, I think the senate approves that appointment? Even with a ton of evidence coming from the house/Mueller about Pence, they'll want to get a replacement VP in there knowing Pelosi was next in line.

Sorry about their luck.

The Twenty-Fifth Amendment wrote:

Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

My prediction hinges on enough dirt on Pence to force him to resign. My belief is that the entire game of "shielding" him would be only be necessary if it was already clear that he knows what was going on. Can a VP be subpoenaed?

I think Mueller is going to look for justice, and one way to do that is to drive Pence off first. We'll see.

But yeah, if Pence is not forced to resign, then we are stuck. I think Mueller gets the job done now.

VP should have no formal protections and should be able to be subpoenaed or indicted.

Hell, it's not even a real job outside of presiding over the senate.

Gremlin wrote:
Gremlin wrote:

14.1 Children will continue to be taken from their families for at least a couple more days

I don't have an exact timeline, so I can't check this either way at the moment. (Accuracy: unknown)

Accuracy: massive underestimate. They're still separating children from their families, even after double-dog swearing that they weren't.

Meanwhile, another prediction:

15.1 If Trump stays in office until 2024, his direct and indirect death toll will exceed George W. Bush's direct and indirect death toll.