[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

Trump stages his own assassination, reappears sometime later claiming to have resurrected. Too great to die, the best, really.

krev82 wrote:

hell at this rate I'm gonna predict Trump will releases a Trump brand beverage that is better than water because water is in toilets and his drink is the best, he knows smart people who say so, amazing, really. Media will rejoice and report with 100% pre-approved accuracy that this beverage is the best.

ISIS, or an affiliated group, will stage a large (> 100 deaths) terrorist attack in the US by the end of 2018. Don't know if it will be a single blow like Oklahoma City or a number of coordinated near-simultaneous attacks by individuals or small groups.

This will be the impetus for the implementation of the plans to round up identified Muslims, a la WWII Japanese internment camps. The majority of the plan will later be shown to have been created prior to Trumps's inauguration, awaiting an excuse to put it into play.

Some Muslims will resist internment, "proving" their propensity for violence and resulting in harsher methods of apprehension and a deterioration of conditions in the camps. The government will refuse to release figures on the number of detainees, or the number of deaths during apprehension or internment.

1. Sometime within the next year, a Trump supporter will attack either a media outlet that consistently reports "false news" about Trump or a judge that has ruled against his administration.

2. As a result of 1, Trump (or someone in his administration) will say words to the effect of "well, if they hadn't done it, they wouldn't have gotten attacked.)

Prediction 5: The Republican Party will eliminate the Filibuster within the next 2 years.

Prediction 6: The Republican Party will retain control of the Senate in 2018.
Prediction 6.1: They will pick up seats in the Senate.
Prediction 6.2: They will lose control of the house.

Spoiler:

Called it, way before anyone else did.

Isnt it very unlikely they lose control of the house with the current district map.
(Edit: sorry, I know the thread isn't for discussions, but the other prediction "GOP keeping the senate" seems very likely, so I was surprised by the house prediction following it)

Since the opposite shows up a lot:
Trump will not be impeached or step down before next election.

Shadout wrote:

Isnt it very unlikely they lose control of the house with the current district map.

Yeah, the gerrymandering most GOP-controlled legislatures undertook after the 2010 electoral cycle means that the GOP is extremely unlikely to lose control of the House until after the 2020 electoral cycle (when the next US Census completes and another round of redistricting happens).

But the thread just a way for folks to plant a flag in the sand with what they think might happen - and I'd love for WizKid to be right about that one.

The house is more susceptible to local pressure, which I hope will be enough to overcome other obstacles, it won't be easy., but I see it more likely then the Democrats taking the Senate.

FeralMonkey wrote:

ISIS, or an affiliated group, will stage a large (> 100 deaths) terrorist attack in the US by the end of 2018. Don't know if it will be a single blow like Oklahoma City or a number of coordinated near-simultaneous attacks by individuals or small groups.

This will be the impetus for the implementation of the plans to round up identified Muslims, a la WWII Japanese internment camps. The majority of the plan will later be shown to have been created prior to Trumps's inauguration, awaiting an excuse to put it into play.

Some Muslims will resist internment, "proving" their propensity for violence and resulting in harsher methods of apprehension and a deterioration of conditions in the camps. The government will refuse to release figures on the number of detainees, or the number of deaths during apprehension or internment.

This is also my prediction, BUT: all evidence will point to an actual false flag operation. Bannon will have his Reichstag, even if he has to do it himself.

Too early to say for certain that the Oroville Dam is going to outlast the current rainy season, but it's looking like the heroic efforts of civil engineers and the evacuation orders have prevented significant loss of life (thank goodness).

I mention this here because had things gone differently this would have been a confirmation of my prediction #1 - and far earlier that even I was expecting.

Far happier that people are safe than I would be about being right, on that one.

Not out of the woods yet, Dimmer, but if it goes, it's likely to be low casualty at this point.

Moby has made a few predictions that I'll add in his name. This is the entire text of his post on Instagram.

after spending the weekend talking to friends who work in dc i can safely (well, 'accurately'...) post the following things: 1-the russian dossier on trump is real. 100% real. he's being blackmailed by the russian government, not just for being peed on by russian hookers, but for much more nefarious things. 2-the trump administration is in collusion with the russian government, and has been since day one. 3-the trump administration needs a war, most likely with iran. at present they are putting u.s warships off the coast of iran in the hope that iran will attack one of the ships and give the u.s a pretense for invasion. 4-there are right wing plans to get rid of trump. he's a drain on their fundraising and their approval ratings, and the gop and koch brothers and other u.s right wing groups are planning to get rid of trump. 5-intelligence agencies around the world, and here in the u.s, are horrified by the incompetence of the trump administration, and are working to present information that will lead to high level firings and, ultimately, impeachment. i'm writing these things so that when/if these things happen there will be a public record beforehand. these are truly baffling and horrifying times, as we have an incompetent president who is essentially owned by a foreign power. -moby
Tanglebones wrote:

Prediction: Within the first month of his presidency, Trump will have the National Guard attack the DAPL protesters

Just outside the first month, and it's merely militarized police:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/834...

My predictions 2 and 3 are looking distressingly plausible.

Reuters wrote:

President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wants to ensure the U.S. nuclear arsenal is at the "top of the pack," saying the United States has fallen behind in its atomic weapons capacity.

In a Reuters interview, Trump also said China could solve the national security challenge posed by North Korea "very easily if they want to," ratcheting up pressure on Beijing to exert more influence to rein in Pyongyang's increasingly bellicose actions.

In his first comments about the U.S. nuclear arsenal since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump said he would like to see a world with no nuclear weapons but expressed concern that the United States has "fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity."

“I am the first one that would like to see everybody - nobody have nukes, but we’re never going to fall behind any country even if it’s a friendly country, we’re never going to fall behind on nuclear power.

"It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, we’re going to be at the top of the pack," Trump said.

Russia has 7,300 warheads and the United States, 6,970, according to the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-nuclear group.

welp time for them to move that doomsday clock again :/

If you're old enough to remember the 70's and 80's, that clock is no joke. But don't worry, if you're not, you're going to get another chance to experience the long term fear of sudden annihilation, I suspect...

Not sure if this has been covered but...

Trump eventually gives up on building a wall in favor of one or more changes to DHS policies. Refers to program of policy changes as 'The Wall' so he can claim 'promise kept'

At this point, considering how little Trump and his people seem to care about reality, my prediction is it would go down this way:

If no wall is build, Trump will claim that it is actually build, and blame the media for not covering it.
(I'm not predicting that the wall wont be build, sadly I think that is not impossible anymore)

Yonder wrote:

I suspect that within the next year the White House Press Conference will look quite a bit different. At the most extreme the tradition will be abolished, but more likely I think that some long-time members will be disinvited (even big players like CNN are possible) and some ridiculous alt-right replacements will be made.

I also expect that the ratio of questions taken from different organizations will be more skewed, but I don't know if we have the data on previous questions that have been answered/ignored from different news organizations to verify that.

Does this qualify?

Yonder wrote:
Yonder wrote:

I suspect that within the next year the White House Press Conference will look quite a bit different. At the most extreme the tradition will be abolished, but more likely I think that some long-time members will be disinvited (even big players like CNN are possible) and some ridiculous alt-right replacements will be made.

I also expect that the ratio of questions taken from different organizations will be more skewed, but I don't know if we have the data on previous questions that have been answered/ignored from different news organizations to verify that.

Does this qualify?

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/jhrWz0L.gif)

Almost, Yonder. I took your intent to mean the the Daily Press Briefings; yesterday was a "Press Gaggle", which are more exclusive, and those left out get the pool reporters info to work with. So... If we go with what went down yesterday, the prediction is not quite there, especially since on the face of it, there's nothing unusual about a subset of reporters being left out of a gaggle...

I'm on the fence about this one, but inclined to see what they follow it up with. The stage is set for CNN and others to be kicked off the White House Press Corps, or the whole Press Briefing system to be torn down and replaced with, well, summons for when announcements are needed.

Robear wrote:

Almost, Yonder. I took your intent to mean the the Daily Press Briefings; yesterday was a "Press Gaggle", which are more exclusive, and those left out get the pool reporters info to work with. So... If we go with what went down yesterday, the prediction is not quite there, especially since on the face of it, there's nothing unusual about a subset of reporters being left out of a gaggle...

I'm on the fence about this one, but inclined to see what they follow it up with. The stage is set for CNN and others to be kicked off the White House Press Corps, or the whole Press Briefing system to be torn down and replaced with, well, summons for when announcements are needed.

I read it as testing the waters to see what they can get away with. There was just enough plausible deniability here for them to weasel out of trouble with anyone inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, while the threat they were trying to make to the media is still entirely clear.

Understanding that his prediction is ongoing, I'd like to point out that Garrcia hit his predictions quite nicely so far:

MattDaddy's Prediction 1 seems to have failed. Not only is she still alive, but there's no public sign of any chronic health issues that were discussed during the election. Those seem to have been fake news.

MattDaddy wrote:

Prediction 1: Hillary pass away before Trump's first term. Cause will not be due any sort of attempt on her life, but a continuation of the types of health issues she had during the campaign.

Tomorrow is April 15, which just happens to be the day Kim Il Sung is celebrated in North Korea. My quick prediction is that we'll hit North Korea with missiles and perhaps air strikes designed to damage their ballistic missile program during that day, NK time.

Robear wrote:

Tomorrow is April 15, which just happens to be the day Kim Il Sung is celebrated in North Korea. My quick prediction is that we'll hit North Korea with missiles and perhaps air strikes designed to damage their ballistic missile program during that day, NK time.

Should I predict the invasion of South Korea or a North Korean civil war in response? Hrm.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/Hktpkmuh.jpg)

I predict both.

Predicting US will be involved in a new war within the next year seems like a reasonable bet at this point. North Korea probably is the most likely candidate.

Trump has just now realized how much fun it is to throw bombs around. Any Civilization player could have told him that long ago.
Speaking of which, Trump really does have the AI of a Civ faction. You have more great people than us? We hate you! You have more X than us, we hate you! You have less Y than us, we will destroy you!

Because editing my posts changes the time stamps, I figured that it'd be better to make one post with the results.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
1.1. Climate Change: 4C by 2100. (2100)
1.2. Economy: We lose reserve currency status
1.2A. (2018)
1.2B. (2020)
1.2C. (2020)
1.3. Economy: Specific aspects of the economy
1.3A. (2018)
1.3B. (2020)
1.3C. (2020)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
2.1. (2020)
2.2. (2020)
2.3. (2020)
2.4. (November 2018)
2.5. (2020)
2.6. (2020)
2.7. (2020)
2.8. (2020)
2.9. (2020)
2.10. (2020)
2.11. (2020)
2.12. (2020)
2.13. (2020)

3.1 (2024)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
4.1 (2020?) (8/1/2017 - Nope, not going to lease his private jet. They're just going to use planes they bought from a defunct Russian airline.)
4.2 (2020)
4.3 (2020)
4.4 The recounts didn't change anything, the electoral college didn't change anything, and there were a few holdouts until the 20th, though I don't think it was as widespread as I was thinking. The Women's March on the 21st cleared away a lot of anguish, at least online. So I got the first part mostly right, but was too pessimistic on the last part.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
5.1: (1/16) True: There were seven, five of which deserted Clinton). Though technically, Horace Greeley had more unfaithful electors, but he was losing anyway and also he was dead at the time.
5.2: (1/16) True! Before defections, Trump had a lead of 37; the Electoral College confirmed his election.
5.3: (1/16) False, unless I missed something. Or you want to count all the people not showing up for the inauguration, which I don't.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
6.1 (2018) (8/1/2017: Came close, with the partial repeal passing the House and falling flat on its face in the Senate. Dead for now, but only in a Cthulu sense.)
6.2 (2018)
6.3 (2018)
6.4 (2018) (8/1/2017 - Sadly true, though mostly on the right.)
6.5 (2018)
6.6 (2018)
6.7 (2018) (8/1/2017 - Oh, yeah, the Olympics are in Seoul next year.)
6.8 (2018)
6.9 (2018)
6.10 (2018)
6.11 (2019)
6.12 (2019)
6.13 (2019)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
7.1 (2019)
7.2 (2019)
7.3 (2019)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
8.1 Well, as of May 11th Spicer is still around. (6/21/2017 - Spicer lasted six months and one day.)
8.2 This seems like a pretty safe bet, given that he's taken to passing out electoral college maps. (As of 8/1/2017 - Still doing it.)
8.3 (8/1/2017 - Yes and no: the Federal Register still works and the form of the processes is there, but the DOE, the State Department, Interior, and presumably others have abandoned their posts.) Bad but not quite as bad as I predicted.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
9.1 (End of 2017) - (8/7/2017 - Trump Real News Network is...his Facebook page? With reporters doing videos? And his daughter-in-law?)
9.2 (July 2017) - (8/1/2017 - Hahahahaha. Ahem. Staffing problems? They had a director of Communications who was fired before his official start date. They still have staffing problems.)
9.3 (5/10) Haven't really had a trade war yet, mostly because 45 caved.
9.4 (5/10) No war with China (yet)
9.5 (5/10) No new database so far.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
10.1 (End of 2018)
10.1.a (End of 2018)
10.2 (End of 2018) - (5/10) CNN, NYT, and Fox of all places have been barred on occasion. It's not a complete shut-out, though, and InfoWar's press credentials are only weekly, with regular press credentials pending. And, in a twist I couldn't have predicted, the entire press corps was barred from a meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister, but the Russian state-run media was let in.
10.3: (2017-01-30): I'm happy to report I was way wrong on this one: four of the journalists had the charges dropped by 1/30. (5/10) Though other journalists have been arrested...
10.4: (5/10) Well, they're leaking even more...(8/1/2017): Ha. Hahahahahahaha.

Thanks for doing that, Gremlin... I've been too stressed and busy to check this for the last two months or so.

Well, those are just my predictions, so everyone else can go and check theirs

For once I am really really happy to be wrong.

Shadout wrote:

2. French election.One of two:
a) Marine Le Pen narrowly win presidential election in France, promising to end the "Islamic threat" and referendum on leaving EU.
Or
b) The conservative candidate wins, but it happens by running a campaign that is virtually identical to Marine Le Pens.

Probably would have been right if the conservative candidate hadn't decided to give his wife a fake job. Where would we be without stupidity...