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This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.
I think we see rumblings of 25th amendment talk, but the Republicans are never able to whip enough votes from their own caucus and the Democrats (who see Vance as worse) to go through with it.
We're here because Republicans are terrified of Trump's base. As much as they might want Vance to replace Trump, they will never risk pissing off his base. They will even keep Trump in office if he continues into full-blown dementia. They'll just... "work" around him.
MrDeVil909 wrote:Here's some predictions for you.
The Mass Deportations will start pretty close to day one after the inauguration. But they will taper off very quickly and be focused mostly on Dem-led sanctuary cities* because Trump has been bribed by various organisations that would be crippled by losing migrant labour. They will claim they are still happening and there will be periodic, highly publicized sweeps that's don't discriminate based on legal status.**
*Is this illegal? I don't know. Doesn't matter because laws aren't real.
** Laws still aren't realMy prediction there is that a great many of them will be legal immigrants who just had minor errors in their paperwork or will be people who have their pending asylum cases summarily rejected. They're far easier to track down and find than actual illegal immigrants, and Trump will have them deported so he can boost the number of immigrants he'll brag about getting rid of.
Oh yeah, good call.
I predict Justices Alito and Thomas will retire and be replaced with a pair of 40-something-year-old "conservative" (i.e. bat crap crazy) jurists, cementing a permanent (at least for all our lifetimes) wackadoodle supreme court.
I predict Justices Alito and Thomas will retire and be replaced with a pair of 40-something-year-old "conservative" (i.e. bat crap crazy) jurists, cementing a permanent (at least for all our lifetimes) wackadoodle supreme court.
Yep, that's about as safe a prediction as it gets. I predict they will do it quickly too, well within the first 2 years of Trump's administration. Unlike what a Democratic Justice would probably do, they're not going to take a chance of waiting in case they lose the Senate in 2026.
Trump will remain president for 2 years + 1 day, then will step down/get removed so that Vance can get 2 full terms in.
Trump will remain president for 2 years + 1 day, then will step down/get removed so that Vance can get 2 full terms in.
Strong disagree. Trump will never go voluntarily, and any attempt to remove him will drive the base insane.
Opposing prediction: While it probably won't succeed, sometime in the next 4 years Trump will make a determined effort to revoke the 2-term limit. Or get the Supremes to rule that it doesn't apply to him Because Reasons. Or something.
Trump won't leave office unless he's in a coffin., and there's no reason to get rid of him.
Keep him there giving speeches to the base, give him a fake red button in the oval office to push and tell him he's nuked China, and Vance and cronies can do their work in peace.
Trump will leave office when folks can convince him he’s done so much good for the nation that he deserves to “go back to making money”.
Stengah wrote:My prediction there is that a great many of them will be legal immigrants who just had minor errors in their paperwork or will be people who have their pending asylum cases summarily rejected. They're far easier to track down and find than actual illegal immigrants, and Trump will have them deported so he can boost the number of immigrants he'll brag about getting rid of.
Oh yeah, good call.
As someone whose green card arrived (finally, two and a half years after the process started) in the mail a couple of weeks ago, this sort of thinking is very much in mind. I agree with the prediction -- all it takes is for a minor error to be able to question an entire application. I got an Request For Evidence because the doctor who performed my physical signed -- but did not date -- the form before putting it in the packet we have to submit still sealed.
The single easiest prediction is that Trump will add 15 Trillion dollars to the national debt with another tax cut to billionaires.
There will be at least 4 votes for Speaker of the House in the next 6 months.
With the majority slim and the sheer volume of crazy (R) members they won't be able to stay disciplined enough.
Sirhahn Sirhahn declines efforts by RFK jr. to get paroled because he's probably better off in a maximum security prison rather than living in the hell the son of the man he assassinated is about to create.
After tonight, Trump changes his mind and appoints the Paul brothers to be Secretary of Defense and Attorney General.
After tonight, Trump changes his mind and appoints the Paul brothers to be Secretary of Defense and Attorney General.
That would be good news.
Since the other side can't exist outside a fantasy bubble, I am going to percolate one for myself starting with this:
Dark Biden will emerge in the coming weeks announcing that half of the current batch of weapons/money headed to Israel will be sent to Ukraine instead.
Within the first 2 years of the new administration, dozens of people will be wounded/killed when police and/or National Guard are authorized to fire upon protestors.
Within the first 2 years of the new administration, dozens of people will be wounded/killed when police and/or National Guard are authorized to fire upon protestors.
You call them protestors. The administration/news will label them terrorists.
As for my prediction. Nothing will awaken the populace. There is nothing special about Americans. The same fascist playbook that works everywhere else will also work here. I would wager it will work even better here than most places because Americans are "better off" than in most other places. Americans are primed to bury our heads in the sand and hope they come for "us" last. We will end up giving up everything. Trump will run again in 2028, and win. Nothing is stopping the fascism train this time. Technology has made it impossible to fight against successfully.
I know this is an incredibly bleak prediction, but there is nothing I have seen in the last 40 years that makes any other outcome seem remotely possible. Every single thing in politics has gotten worse since I was born in 1975.
ruhk wrote:Within the first 2 years of the new administration, dozens of people will be wounded/killed when police and/or National Guard are authorized to fire upon protestors.
You call them protestors. The administration/news will label them terrorists.
As for my prediction. Nothing will awaken the populace. There is nothing special about Americans. The same fascist playbook that works everywhere else will also work here. I would wager it will work even better here than most places because Americans are "better off" than in most other places. Americans are primed to bury our heads in the sand and hope they come for "us" last. We will end up giving up everything. Trump will run again in 2028, and win. Nothing is stopping the fascism train this time. Technology has made it impossible to fight against successfully.
I know this is an incredibly bleak prediction, but there is nothing I have seen in the last 40 years that makes any other outcome seem remotely possible. Every single thing in politics has gotten worse since I was born in 1975.
I want you to be wrong, but I know you're not.
I largely agree, though I also believe there will still be widespread protests throughout the next four years, mostly over immigrant concentration camps and forced deportations. The majority of Americans are complacent but we also have a tiny but vocal undercurrent of activists who I can guarantee are already planning direct action. There were constant protests all throughout the Biden administration but they just weren’t widely reported (with the exception of the ceasefire protests) because they were protesting things white liberals generally approve of.
A whole bunch of political and economic analysts have been predicting for a while that the US would become increasingly isolationist and inward focused at the expense of the global international order. Peter Zeihan etc.
The idea being that particularly after the debacle in Iraq, Americans are less and less enamored with America's position of leadership in global affairs and want to divorce the nation from foreign military and fiscal commitments. The problem with this, of course, is that the Bretton Woods agreement was basically that we would be the arsenal of democracy and guarantor of security of the seas so long as the US dollar remained the global reserve currency. This effectively makes us default proof and results in the rest of the world financially subsidizing our economic expansion. Drop one and you drop the other. That last part is the part everyone appears to be afraid to talk about.
Now we have the BRICS talking about some kind of common currency for trade among partners, but that will probably fail. The far more likely scenario is that Putin and Trump will get what they want in a "multipolar world" return to 20th Century colonialism. Though Putin has probably miscalculated and become a colony/puppet state of China who will prop up Russia so long as it is geopolitically utile and can be a source of resource extraction and pollution dumping.
In this model, the US retreats from global significance, the world becomes a far more dangerous place, regional conflicts erupt that increasingly suck others into them. And the US learns to live with less, particularly as the global biosphere continues to collapse. The US continues to benefit from geography giving it significant advantages over other global colonial competitors, but its time as the guarantor of open society is over.
Ukraine related prediction.
Trump will strongarm Ukraine into accepting a frozen conflict which cedes effective control over the territories Russia currently controls to Putin. This will also include a forced withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast and a pledge not to join NATO or enter into "hostile alliances" with the West. Russia will use an 18 month pause to mobilize and equip a force to finish the job and destroy Ukraine. Ukrainian forces will last a month before completely collapsing. The refugee crisis in Central Europe will topple governments in Romania, Poland, Moldavia, and the Balkans. Instability will build in Western Europe and countries will crack down on refugee entries causing a massive humanitarian disaster.
An enormous rift will develop between Europe and the US. Europe will eventually absorb the refugees and benefit from them demographically, but will never forget the betrayal of their American "allies". They will limit intelligence sharing and increasingly rely on their own defense industries to the detriment of cross Atlantic cooperation.
By the latter half of the century (quite likely within the next decade), the US will finally complete its transition into its next era: that of a moribund world power.
An enormous rift will develop between Europe and the US. Europe will eventually absorb the refugees and benefit from them demographically, but will never forget the betrayal of their American "allies". They will limit intelligence sharing and increasingly rely on their own defense industries to the detriment of cross Atlantic cooperation.
I could see a new global defence alliance arising, a replacement for NATO (or an expansion of NATO-minus-USA) aimed at containing Russia, China, and the zombie USA. Probably consisting of most or all of the EU (whatever that means by then), India, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, maybe Mexico, etc.
ruhk wrote:Within the first 2 years of the new administration, dozens of people will be wounded/killed when police and/or National Guard are authorized to fire upon protestors.
You call them protestors. The administration/news will label them terrorists.
As for my prediction. Nothing will awaken the populace. There is nothing special about Americans. The same fascist playbook that works everywhere else will also work here. I would wager it will work even better here than most places because Americans are "better off" than in most other places. Americans are primed to bury our heads in the sand and hope they come for "us" last. We will end up giving up everything. Trump will run again in 2028, and win. Nothing is stopping the fascism train this time. Technology has made it impossible to fight against successfully.
I know this is an incredibly bleak prediction, but there is nothing I have seen in the last 40 years that makes any other outcome seem remotely possible. Every single thing in politics has gotten worse since I was born in 1975.
Unfortunately, I believe this to be exactly what is going to happen.
TBF, it’s already happening, a lot of the Cop City protesters were arrested and tried under anti-terrorism laws over the last couple years. It’s been a tool of the government against the Left since the passing of the Patriot Act.
I was going to make this as a prediction, but it looks like we are already seeing it happening.
The right wing will start using "population collapse" as a justification for the subjugation of women.
As DOGE discovers what it can and can't do, it will focus on in-Departmental staffing and IT changes. This will create a new wave of contractors created from previously protected employees, very like what created the contractor culture that replaced government workers en masse back in the 1980's.
As DOGE discovers what it can and can't do, it will focus on in-Departmental staffing and IT changes. This will create a new wave of contractors created from previously protected employees, very like what created the contractor culture that replaced government workers en masse back in the 1980's.
Contracts that will strangely only be filled by companies heavily invested in by DOGE and cabinet members...
Not unless they eradicate the FARS.
Not unless they eradicate the FARS.
Who is going to force them to use it? Or punish them for not?
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