[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

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This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

Biden will beat Trump, with a similar popular vote margin than in 2020, but wider margin in electoral votes. Biden fatigue and lower turnout among disappointed Dem voters will be compensated by demographic shifts (boomers dying and the unvaccinated being majority MAGA more than diversity). With the campaign gaining steam, Trump's lunacy and Biden's focus on it will get him closer in the polls.

The polls will still underestimate the Dems this time, who will also win the House.

The Senate will flip though, as the seats up for grabs strongly favor the GOP this cycle.

dejanzie wrote:

Biden will beat Trump, with a similar popular vote margin than in 2020, but wider margin in electoral votes. Biden fatigue and lower turnout among disappointed Dem voters will be compensated by demographic shifts (boomers dying and the unvaccinated being majority MAGA more than diversity). With the campaign gaining steam, Trump's lunacy and Biden's focus on it will get him closer in the polls.

The polls will still underestimate the Dems this time, who will also win the House.

The Senate will flip though, as the seats up for grabs strongly favor the GOP this cycle.

The recent move by the MAGAts to effectively decapitate the RNC puts the play for the Senate majority in some peril though. They went full on nacht der langenmesser and stabbed about 2/3 of their staff with less than 8 months to go to the election. All it would take is one disgruntled staffer to salt the donor list or corrupt the voter surveys and 3 points shifts across the board become very possible.

Considering the sh*t cash position they are in right now and the seemingly purposeful decision to fracture their own coalition, I think the prediction that they will retake the Senate and/or even retain the House is premature. It is worth noting that MAGAt candidates have historically done VERY poorly in competitive races since 2016.

Well, remember, the RNC is traditionally - always - purged to support the front-runner. So this is not so unusual. What is, is the appointment of Trump's family members. Also, the Dear Leader vibes make this move more noticeable than the usual staff changeover.

Joe Biden loses when the permanent underclass fails to turn up to assure him victory in November.

I typed up a real manifesto but it all boils down to Joe Biden pretended to care with his words and f*cked us with his deeds. What he did accomplish has no perceptable value or gain to the people who assured him victory.

Pretend to care? We'll pretend to vote and watch Joe lose on national tv.

"Oh wow Joe Biden lost?" Don't blame me! I voted for him.