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This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.
Hope you recover quickly, Rukh!
The last week has sucked and every day brings a new annoyance, but honestly I’m more bummed out that my streak of narrowly avoiding Covid has finally ended. My partner & I were the last holdouts in our social group.
Everyone on that stage last night will talk about masculinity and leadership and freedom and toughness, and at the end, every last one of them (save for Christie and probably Pence) will prostrate themselves to the bully without question or protest.
The last week has sucked and every day brings a new annoyance, but honestly I’m more bummed out that my streak of narrowly avoiding Covid has finally ended. My partner & I were the last holdouts in our social group.
I feel ya. And I got it a year ago 
Get better as soon as possible.
I see the yelling online, and I'm actually quite sympathetic to left-wing disappointment/disavowal of Biden, and the ongoing sense of getting a sh*t sandwich because it's not as bad as that flaming, poison-filled one over there.
However, my ongoing question remains, assuming Trump gets in in 2024, what is the Left's plan for after that? Arguing that Biden/Trump are the same reveals the speaker to be a hilariously unserious Tankie, but I'm genuinely curious what the plan for... the revolution, or whatever is assuming a Trump 2.0 presidency.
I'm personally of the opinion that the Left is wholly unprepared for the level of violent suppression the state will level against them in such a circumstance, beyond the fact that I have always been skeptical of how amenable the American populace is as a whole to genuine Left projects.
And again, I'm quite sympathetic to dissatisfaction with Biden. I'm not fond of him politically, however, the current political situation has me trapped in a situation where I am emphatically choosing the lesser of two evils.
But in total honesty, I just wonder what the plan is. I know the slogan is "They can't kill us all," but that is just so, so, so so so wrong.
At least among the circles I’m in, the revolutionary leftist energy has mostly abandoned national politics as anything other than tactical harm reduction and shifted away from proactive “let’s prevent the collapse” plans and towards “the collapse is definitely happening at this point regardless so let’s be prepared to pick up the pieces and make something better with them.” Everyone still plans on holding their nose and voting Biden but we all realize that sh*ts going to continue getting worse and worse regardless and it’s up to the people to save each other because capitalism won’t let politics make meaningful change and there’s simply not enough time left for the “incremental positive change” of liberals to be effective.
I know it's Mulvaney, Trump's former Chief of Staff, so, you take it with several shakers of salt, but honestly, I think he's right.
DeSantis, even Haley or Scott probably trounce Biden. But Trump has the best chance of blowing it.
I don't see any Republican doing as well as Trump, if Trump ends up jail, say. Biden definitely beats DeSantis if the election were held today. But if it were, Trump and Biden would be a close one.
Trump will be the republican nominee even if he dies before the primaries because a significant portion of the republican electorate will just think he faked his death to catch Biden & his deep state goons off guard.
DeSantis is an awkward void of charisma who would lose to a damp paper bag in the national elections. The only reason he’s an extremely distant second in polling is because a lot of the party desperately wants to rid themselves of Trump and DeSantis was the first alternative who was able to get national attention for something other than sex crimes.
I am not sure about that, re: DeSantis. I know a lot of Floridians who love the guy because "he is getting things done" and "blahblahwokeblahblah." Take Trump, remove ALL the charisma, and add a little bit of "I'm not a moron" and you have DeSantis.
If we have a "The Rock v. Mark Cuban" Presidential election, we will deserve whatever climate apocalypse we get.
If we have a "The Rock v. Mark Cuban" Presidential election, we will deserve whatever climate apocalypse we get.
hot take: either of those people would do a better job of addressing the climate catastrophe than Trump.
Nuclear take: or Biden.
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