[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

DSGamer wrote:

Read the Portland subreddit and you’ll see tons of MAGAs and fair weather “liberals” who genuinely believe police were defunded and it’s time to round up the homeless and put them “somewhere else”. That and Phil Knight’s money is why Oregon might get a Republican governor.

The Portland subreddit has always been pretty NIMBY but it’s been filled with straight-up reactionaries since the Floyd Protests. They had to restrict new accounts from posting because the subreddit keeps getting brigaded by people outside the city.

ruhk wrote:
DSGamer wrote:

Read the Portland subreddit and you’ll see tons of MAGAs and fair weather “liberals” who genuinely believe police were defunded and it’s time to round up the homeless and put them “somewhere else”. That and Phil Knight’s money is why Oregon might get a Republican governor.

The Portland subreddit has always been pretty NIMBY but it’s been filled with straight-up reactionaries since the Floyd Protests. They had to restrict new accounts from posting because the subreddit keeps getting brigaded by people outside the city.

Be that as it may if it’s remotely representative of the region we’re boned here.

Make no mistake. The republicans aren't coming after democrats. They're coming after democracy. and the idiots who vote for them are so terrified at the boner they might get when they see a trans woman reading a story to a kid at a library that they will gladly trade the inheritance the Founders gave them for a bowl of fascist pottage.

Not terribly bold, but Bolsonario is probably going to attempt a coup.

Paleocon wrote:

Not terribly bold, but Bolsonario is probably going to attempt a coup.

I’d imagine he’ll follow the Pinochet playbook.

Clumber wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Not terribly bold, but Bolsonario is probably going to attempt a coup.

I’d imagine he’ll follow the Pinochet playbook.

Yup. I am sure Trump would have done the same had his mob of traitors managed to slaughter Congress.

Paleocon wrote:

Make no mistake. The republicans aren't coming after democrats. They're coming after democracy. and the idiots who vote for them are so terrified at the boner they might get when they see a trans woman reading a story to a kid at a library that they will gladly trade the inheritance the Founders gave them for a bowl of fascist pottage.

FYI Drag queens and Trans women are very different. Let's not conflate the two, please. This isn't a mod action, just a personal request.

There's a complicated history that's not really widely known outside of queer spaces as noted in the link I provided above that gives some insight to that and why it can be concerning harmful for trans folks.

Not so bold prediction: if a Republican wins in 2024, someone is going to murder one or more liberal Supreme Court justices.

The next 3-5 days are going to be just a great, great time to do a total social media detox. That is my prediction.

Yeah stopping Twitter for tonight. Yikes.

It's as if a conservative white man just bought Twitter and reworked all the algorithms to promote what he believes in just prior to a major election in the United States.

Mixolyde wrote:

Democrats will gain Senate seats in the 2022 election, but that exact number of Senators will suddenly take issue with ending the filibuster or expanding the exceptions to it to get anything more progressive done.

So far so good! I wonder who the next group of villains will be.

When Reddit goes public Google or Meta will buy it to try and replace Twitter.

We're gonna find out Elon's a Jan. 6 supporter/denier by summer.

An international one.

Given the Tories in the UK are adopting early 2000s Australian conservative rhetoric on refugees, it seems inevitable they will manufacture one of:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Childr...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIEV_X

Stop The Boats was a pretty shameful time in modern Australian politics.

Biden will cave in on the debit ceiling.

In what particular regards, WizKid? How will a "cave in" look different from a realistic trade off that benefits and hurts both sides? (In other words, tell us how we know he got the short end of the stick.)

The Republicans already approved the budget. Refusing to raise the debt ceiling to pay for it is pure bullsh*t.

Not even considering the worldwide economic consequences. Just the idea that you can say here's the budget, vote yes. And then in a separate vote say no not paying for that, and try to renegotiate what's already passed.

No compromise, no concessions. That part is over. Be a f*cking grown up and do what you already agreed. If they refuse, invoke the 14th and end this bullsh*t for next time too.

This paying for stuff from the *last* budget, right?

Robear wrote:

In what particular regards, WizKid? How will a "cave in" look different from a realistic trade off that benefits and hurts both sides? (In other words, tell us how we know he got the short end of the stick.)

Going in Biden demanded a clean debt ceiling raise, anything less will be caving in by the standard that Biden himself set.

You've already guaranteed that your "prediction" has succeeded, so I'm gonna say it's actually not a prediction by the standard you set. (Because he is, in fact, negotiating.)

Saw this on Twitter:

this is going to be an insane prediction but donald trumps running mate in the general election is absolutely going to be RFK jr and they’re going to try to make it some sort of country unity ticket. i hope i’m wrong but i just feel this in my gut for some reason

I would argue it's Kari Lake at this point, she's fused herself to him.

I don't know, RFK Jr seems determined to run as a spoiler fake Democrat.

As one of his final acts as President Biden will pardon Hunter Biden.

I'm tempted to start a thread for serious, evidence-derived political predictions.

If you haven't seen it, I don't think this is even a "prediction," Conservative groups are saying out loud what they want to do.

The Heritage Foundation's Project 2025.

It's very long (900 pages), but even a brief skim turns up some truly unhinged stuff every 3-5 pages.

They are a terrorist group. No ifs ands or buts...
Same with the Federalist Society

I caught covid last week and the decreased oxygen to my brain has made me just stupid enough to sit through tonight’s republican debate and none of these people will ever be president.
They all have the charisma of a brick and are so dull they look like they are even boring themselves with their own rhetoric. Even if Trump dies or is rendered legally ineligible for the presidency none of these people will ever be president. It was barely a debate, whenever a candidate spoke for more than 30 seconds the other candidates would start trying to interrupt with their catchphrases and slogans and it would devolve into everyone incoherently shouting over each other.

Oddly enough I don’t think I heard the word “woke” one time the entire night so maybe they finally learned that no one cares.

Hope you recover quickly, Rukh!