[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

Yep. I think America itself is a great counterpoint to Hanlon’s razor; we really should be attributing American voting behaviors to malice, not stupidity. As mentioned in another thread, this is the core point the Democrats have yet to grasp.

Edit: I very much include myself in there. My 2020 vote was more-than-partially a great big f*ck you to MAGAs.

Seth wrote:

Yep. I think America itself is a great counterpoint to Hanlon’s razor; we really should be attributing American voting behaviors to malice, not stupidity. As mentioned in another thread, this is the core point the Democrats have yet to grasp.

Lets pretend I am a Dem who grasps it....what should my plan be? Get other Ds to hate Rs so much they are willing to kill them? Get them so angry they will ignore any sensible plan to make the country better if the candidate just promises to hurt the other side?

Really that is just a race to the bottom - and I won't even say the Ds can't win....but in the end the country is at the bottom all of us

So I can have the Rs destroy the country or the Ds. Somehow this faustian choice doesn't seem, to me, to matter.

In what way are Dems planning to destroy the country? What I see is attempts to undo destructive policies, willful neglect, and corruption...

Seth indicated that voters were more motivated by malice and that Ds needed to grasp that.

I am asking - what should Ds do when they grasp that? I gave one solution - what would yours be?

That’s actually close enough to my solution that I don’t think any nuance I add would change it materially, Farley.

As others have shown, swing voters really don't exist anymore. So it's a matter of getting apathetic people to vote, especially in the primaries. And to step up for local offices.

If nobody cares enough (or if they've been fed so much sh*t they think truth is unknowable so why bother), then we are indeed f*d. We will have done it to ourselves. And we'll deserve it.

We have to burp out this corruption or we lose democracy.
In fact, we might already have with the damage done to our election integrity.
In the past, we could be absolutely ruthless to each other and destructive. But we always had a peaceful transfer of power.

Now, we will never have peaceful transfer of power even if Trump wins. Its another area where the GOP is projecting. Everything they accused Dems of doing, they will do and normalize it for every election going forward.

JLS wrote:

As others have shown, swing voters really don't exist anymore. So it's a matter of getting apathetic people to vote, especially in the primaries. And to step up for local offices.

If nobody cares enough (or if they've been fed so much sh*t they think truth is unknowable so why bother), then we are indeed f*d. We will have done it to ourselves. And we'll deserve it.

Yep. Vote your hopes in the primaries and vote your rage/fear in the general. Bernie —> Biden for me.

Ps what’s the other strategy? Taking a principled stand by abstaining from voting? Gross.

So, something I should have considered before I posted… This is a predictions thread, not intended for political discussions. Please consider continuing this discussion in the D&D section of the website rather than here.

Thank you.

Seth wrote:

Yep. I think America itself is a great counterpoint to Hanlon’s razor; we really should be attributing American voting behaviors to malice, not stupidity. As mentioned in another thread, this is the core point the Democrats have yet to grasp.

Edit: I very much include myself in there. My 2020 vote was more-than-partially a great big f*ck you to MAGAs.

The core point that Democrats have yet to grasp is that politics is a winner-take-all exercise in raw power, doubly so in our two party system.

Too many Democratic voters (and the uncomfortable truth is that it's primarily the White ones) expect to be wooed and inspired to vote for a Democratic candidate instead of understanding that it's either a Democratic candidate you might agree with maybe half the time or a Republican who you'll disagree with 100% of the time.

Manchin's an asshole, but the 'solution' to him remains voting in enough other Democratic Senators so we don't have to give a sh*t how he votes on certain issues.

farley3k wrote:

Lets pretend I am a Dem who grasps it....what should my plan be? Get other Ds to hate Rs so much they are willing to kill them? Get them so angry they will ignore any sensible plan to make the country better if the candidate just promises to hurt the other side?

Really that is just a race to the bottom - and I won't even say the Ds can't win....but in the end the country is at the bottom all of us

So I can have the Rs destroy the country or the Ds. Somehow this faustian choice doesn't seem, to me, to matter.

If you really believe that then the only rational path forward is to prepare and push for Civil War 2.0 because the vision of America's future the two groups have are entirely incompatible.

I do believe there is a too large contingent of the Republican party who fervently wants an America where White, Christian males will be permanently enshrined in power. That sh*t needs to be called out and stomped into the ground. Literally stomped into the ground.

I also believe that there's a sh*tload of dumb f*cks who voted for Trump for stupid, trivial reasons ("he told it like it is," "he's rich," "he has a hot wife," "her emails," etc.).

You can perhaps trace some of that back to racial animosity, but that just puts you back at Civil War 2.0.

Again, please take further posts to D&D. Thanks.

Not disagreeing with you, but this is the D&D section of the website.

It is, which I forgot, but it's not a discussion thread, as noted in the OP.

The Democrats will be trounced in the upcoming Midterms, losing both the House and the Senate. Biden is impeached but not removed in 2024, the charges will be bogus.
Biden or whoever runs on the Democratic Presidential ticket will lose in 2024.
American Democracy fails but people won't widely see it until 2028.

Yeah, that's pretty much been my expectation.

WizKid wrote:

The Democrats will be trounced in the upcoming Midterms, losing both the House and the Senate. Biden is impeached but not removed in 2024, the charges will be bogus.
Biden or whoever runs on the Democratic Presidential ticket will lose in 2024.
American Democracy fails but people won't widely see it until 2028.

Manchin will stay a Democrat, though. That's a really important thing to ensure. Can't do anything to annoy him.

Not trying to be dark but given the recent assassination of a federal judge and attempt on Kavanaugh’s life, I’m pretty convinced we will see the first successful SCOTUS assassination before the 2024 election.

I think the US, and specifically the red states are hurtling straight towards, f*ck around and fight out avenue.

California would be the world's fifth biggest economy if it was an independent nation. NY, the 10th.

Blue state taxes disproportionately pay for red states Federal programs.

If the minority conservative rule stands and is codified by the Court, and it's basically all states for themselves, why wouldn't those two states leave and take the smaller, coastal blue states with them.

Now, I'm sure the Mitch McConnells and Josh Hawleys of the world would say, that a blue state secession could not stand and would try and stop it, because they aren't complete dum dums and know what such a scenario would mean.

But it won't matter.

The voting base in every deep red state will view the blue states departure as a victory. A dawning of a new confederacy. Hell, the Texas GOP platform now calls for that state to secede. The moment the blue states take any steps to leave, I predict that the deep south and plains states will rush to beat them out the door.

And here is the two part, f*ck around and find out prediction.

In the great divorce, the purple states will ALL decide to go with the blue ones, because they will rightly conclude that the quality of life and economic capacity in the Confederate States of Gilead is going to pale in comparison to Fanged Canada.

Or we just have a nice, new, very short and radioactive Civil War.

Shiny and chrome!

We could also stop peddling outrage...
Just sayin

We could all have this conversation elsewhere, but without the dismissiveness, if we could please.

OP wrote:

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.