[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

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Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

gewy wrote:

I'm quite depressed about this. If you'd asked right after the election what the odds are of Trump being the next President in 2024, I'd have said maybe 10%. 15% at most. Now my internal estimate is up to about 40%. With an additional 20-25% chance that it'll be a different Trumpist Republican.

It sucks.

I'm 50/50 on the next election with 100% chance of a Trumpian Republican getting the nom.

There's only Trumpian Republicans left. They were all Trumpian Republicans before, too. They are just upfront about it now.

Sadly, there’s also a good chance Biden could lose outright in a landslide. It’s not all his fault of course but Afghanistan is turning into one of the worst foreign affair bungles in American history. Combine that with runaway inflation and an out of control pandemic and Joe is shaping up to be Carter Resurrected Edition.

1 year into a 4 year term seems a bit early for me to be pessimistic. Hell covid could mutate to kill only fox news viewers and we will all be saved.

Historically, American voters don't give the slightest f*ck about foreign affairs.

Tanglebones wrote:

Historically, American voters don't give the slightest f*ck about brown peoples' foreign affairs.

Slight adjustment for truthiness.

Tanglebones wrote:

Historically, American voters don't give the slightest f*ck about foreign affairs.

I don’t know if that’s true. Ford lost in part due to Vietnam and the Iranian hostage crisis helped sink Carter. Maybe I’m being a bit pessimistic but I still think this will haunt Biden’s administration.

jdzappa wrote:
Tanglebones wrote:

Historically, American voters don't give the slightest f*ck about foreign affairs.

I don’t know if that’s true. Ford lost in part due to Vietnam and the Iranian hostage crisis helped sink Carter. Maybe I’m being a bit pessimistic but I still think this will haunt Biden’s administration.

Ford lost in part due to the domestic politics of Vietnam i.e. the draft. Not because people disagreed with the nuance of a Cold War proxy-war.

jdzappa wrote:
Tanglebones wrote:

Historically, American voters don't give the slightest f*ck about foreign affairs.

I don’t know if that’s true. Ford lost in part due to Vietnam and the Iranian hostage crisis helped sink Carter. Maybe I’m being a bit pessimistic but I still think this will haunt Biden’s administration.

By August 1968 a majority of Americans felt that it was a mistake to have sent troops to Vietnam. By 1973 60% of all Americans felt that Vietnam had been a mistake. The American public knew that conflict was a pointless waste years before politicians acknowledged it.

Carter was f*cked over by the Iran hostage crisis, but a lot of it had to do with the fact it lasted 444 days (and involved some exceptionally shady ass maneuverings by Reagan).

At most we're on Day 132 of Afghanistan, but only if you count things from the day Biden announced we'd be out of Afghanistan by August 31st. But that'd be crazy since that announcement was barely covered by the media. In reality it been just few weeks and there's a hard end date rapidly approaching.

Multiple polls show that a majority of Americans support leaving Afghanistan as well as a majority of Americans understanding that our withdrawal wouldn't go well regardless if it happened now, in three months, or in another 20 years. There's been no media pundit or politician who's proposed any theoretical instance where America pulling out would go well or wouldn't be quite rapidly noticed by the Afghan government or the Taliban.

On top of that we've managed to airlift out tens of thousands of Afghans and will be extracting tens of thousands more in the coming days. It becomes harder to say Biden abandoned Afghans with those numbers and, at a certain point, his critics have to admit that it's simply not feasible or remotely realistic to judge Biden because he didn't evacuate every Afghan who wanted out. It's much more likely that Biden will get pushback from the right regarding the evacuations with people claiming Afghan refugees are really terrorists who are going to vote Democratic and get free healthcare.

Just like when we pulled out of Iraq there's not going to be a whole lot of media hanging around and continuing to report from Afghanistan, if only because reporters will no longer be safe. Afghanistan will simply fade from media coverage and American minds like the Iraqis, Kurds, Syrians, etc.

And going back to your original comment the only people who are going to ding Biden about COVID are the morons who are taking livestock medicine or who think it's still all a hoax. A majority of Americans will rightly fault red state governors who are putting their 2024 political aspirations ahead of the health of the constituents and the unvaccinated dumb f*cks who we all know skew heavily white and conservative. Most Americans are already fed up with these asshats and several more weeks/months of them causing record COVID cases/hospitalizations/deaths isn't going to make us look more kindly on them.

It's not so much that I think Afghanistan, COVID or whatever crisis comes next will individually have major effects on Biden's reelection chances. It's that with the massive Republican advantage in the electoral college, their likely election shenanigans, and a huge enthusiasm gap, the cumulative negative effect may not be much, but it will be more than enough to lead to a GOP victory. I fear we'd best get used to a pattern of huge Democratic popular vote victories with electoral college nail biters.

And, I have much less hope for a Harris victory because a small but nonetheless crucial subset of the American population will find her "unlikeable" for some reason they can't clearly articulate, but ultimately comes down to misogyny (see also- Clinton 2016).

Also, she's a cop.

Heres a prediction for you: This winter's covid is going to be worse then last years. Covid is going to tear through the south like General Sherman. The hospitals system will collapse and a lot of the MAGA conspiracy theorist crowd isn't going to be around for 2022, or 24. Time will tell whether its going to be enough to swing the election one way or the other.

There is going to be an anti-vaxxer "March on Washington" where they claim they're being treated exactly the same as black people in 1963, but worse. Someone will do an anti-vaxxer "I Have A Dream" speech. I will move to a cabin in Saskatchewan.

Prederick wrote:

There is going to be an anti-vaxxer "March on Washington" where they claim they're being treated exactly the same as black people in 1963, but worse. Someone will do an anti-vaxxer "I Have A Dream" speech. I will move to a cabin in Saskatchewan.

If that happens, about 95% of that group will come down with COVID, about 3-5% of that group will die from it, and the media will not make that connection until some reporter looking for a story in 2030 digs into some data.

Lots of reporters talk about the Sturgis super spreader event and how many of them got sick. I would be extremely surprised if something like this happened and the media did not cover how many of them got sick or died.

I was under the impression that we have pretty much given up on contact tracing due to the hostility that certain segments of society have demonstrated

I’m not sure we will ever fully know how bad these super spreader events are and therefore we will keep on having them as people want to go back to normal life and are thinking that everything is fine

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