[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

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Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

Oh, is this for real? I figured this was a “we should be brunching” joke.

1. Biden’s inaugural address crowds will be lower than Trump’s.
2. Trump will Tweet/brag about this factoid.
2. No one else will care.

I'll go if it's not super cold.

In the middle of a pandemic, it would be smart not to have an inaugural live event at all.

Prediction--Trump's team of legal "experts" will decide to have a high-profile press conference to discuss their continuing legal battle, and, instead of booking time at the well-known and prestigious hotel, will instead accidentally book a press conference at the Four Seasons landscaping company in an industrial park surrounded by auto repair shops, across from a crematorium, and next to an adult bookstore.

Oh, wait, that actually happened. Today.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Prediction--Trump's team of legal "experts" will decide to have a high-profile press conference to discuss their continuing legal battle, and, instead of booking time at the well-known and prestigious hotel, will instead accidentally book a press conference at the Four Seasons landscaping company in an industrial park surrounded by auto repair shops, across from a crematorium, and next to an adult bookstore.

Oh, wait, that actually happened. Today.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/Pyul6R5.png)

I look forward to the next one at the Ritz Carlton Cracker Factory.

I can't help wondering if the Four Seasons turned him down knowing that he'd made that tweet.

Starting to think that Biden administration thread was a bit optimistically premature.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

Starting to think that Biden administration thread was a bit optimistically premature.

Heres a prediction for you. If somehow Drumph manages to walk away with the election due to some sort of court chicanery, or political maneuver, or by leaning on the stooges he appointed in high places, this country'll burn.

A startling number of people are going to die as a result of politically-motivated violence in 2021.

I’m going to add to that and say that at least one federal politician will be among the victims.

Trump will commute the federal death sentence of Dylann Roof.

Paleocon wrote:

Trump will commute the federal death sentence of Dylann Roof.

A nitpick: he plea-bargained to avoid execution. He's serving nine life sentences instead.

edit: oops, the nine life sentences are at the state level, not the Federal one. He has a Federal death sentence. If Trump pardons him, he'll still die in prison.

I think things will be better after Trump loses power and there won't be much more violence because they played their hand and now the fbi is all over the bad actors.

Malor wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Trump will commute the federal death sentence of Dylann Roof.

A nitpick: he plea-bargained to avoid execution. He's serving nine life sentences instead.

edit: oops, the nine life sentences are at the state level, not the Federal one. He has a Federal death sentence. If Trump pardons him, he'll still die in prison.

And that would be a matter for the South Carolina governor.

The house is going to impeach Trump and the senate will convict him before Jan 20th 2021. Pence will immediately blanket pardon Trump.

Regardless of how any of this ultimately shakes out there will be a string of high profile suicides and accidental deaths that will hamper many of the investigations into the last few years.

ruhk wrote:

I’m going to add to that and say that at least one federal politician will be among the victims.

Yeah, the thing about this is that I say this not only because I think it'll happen, but because I guess I hope that it'll help me prepare myself for when it does happen.

But the thing about things like this, really anything you haven't experienced, is that however sure you may be that it's going to happen, you're never completely ready for it when it shows up at your front door.

I have never, ever in my life been this resolutely pessimistic about the future. By all indications, it's going to be bad and it seems to simply be a matter of how bad it's going to get.

Prederick wrote:
ruhk wrote:

I’m going to add to that and say that at least one federal politician will be among the victims.

Yeah, the thing about this is that I say this not only because I think it'll happen, but because I guess I hope that it'll help me prepare myself for when it does happen.

But the thing about things like this, really anything you haven't experienced, is that however sure you may be that it's going to happen, you're never completely ready for it when it shows up at your front door.

I have never, ever in my life been this resolutely pessimistic about the future. By all indications, it's going to be bad and it seems to simply be a matter of how bad it's going to get.

Yeah, same. I had been eavesdropping on some far-right spaces prior to last wednesday and I was actually expecting things to turn out worse than it did as there were people openly planning lethal violence and talking about saying goodbye to family members before they head out. Things are a little more muted now that everyone’s scared of the FBI but I still don’t have a great outlook on the next year.

I agree with the idea that most of them are all bark. But "most" could be 85%, and a motivated remainder could easily make this a really awful year.

Most of the people the FBI has picked up were dumbass cosplayers. The question is how many people are there out there who aren't that dumb, because the answer is absolutely not zero.

One of the things that concerns me right now is that the widespread deplatforming over the last week is driving a lot of the people who are all talk into spaces like Gab that used to be the sole resort of actual extremists. I’m sure a lot of them will likely wander off into safer spaces but the potential is there for mass-radicalization.

That has been my reticence as well. While I broadly am fine with the deplatforming, it is also is sending people to social media Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines.

ruhk wrote:

I was actually expecting things to turn out worse than it did as there were people openly planning lethal violence and talking about saying goodbye to family members before they head out.

It's become increasingly clear during the last week that we were bare seconds away from things getting extremely violent. There were still House members inside the chamber when the mob reached the barricade, and they breached the Senate chamber about one minute after the last Senator left. The online plans for public executions and hostage situations very well could have played out.

Many of the trumps will go to jail. They have done to much bad stuff and made to many enemies.

Within 30 days Donald J Trump Jr will be informed that he is required to for a deposition in at least one criminal case.

Within 60 days of being informed, he will have failed to respond or show up to at least one deposition in a criminal case.

Then we'll get to find out what the consequences will be.

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